Monday, August 5, 2019

Astros Nudge Ahead of Dodgers, Yanks After Deadline Based on Statis-Pro Cards

The Yankees and Dodgers were tied for first with the Yankees based on projected Statis-Pro baseball player cards last month, but the Astros shot up from 5th to 1st with the addition of Zack Greinke and the Indians made an even bigger jump from 11th to 4th with all their trade deadline pick-ups.

We based these projections based on the stats that would be generated by the projected Statis-Pro cards if the random numbers came up exactly even over the course of a season (game can be played by clicking here or reading top of google doc of player cards. We factor the following:

OPS of top 8 in line-up is 40% of the rating, with the Dodgers easily first with a projected .838 after the addition of Will Smith at catcher (his quick projected card gives him a Home Run range of 26-32 for his .750 projected OPS). The Astros are a distant second at .818, and the Cubs third at .809.

ERA of top 4 starters is weighted 20%, and the Nationals are first at 3.49. The Indians are second but that includes Carrasco and Kluber who are injured, meaning the third best Astros are actually just behind the Nationals with the addition of Greinke based on who is actually pitching now.

ERA of the top 6 relievers is weighted 10%, and the Brewers overused bullpen is first again, with the Indians 2nd and the Astros 3rd.

Another 10 percent is for OBR/SP, which is the On Base Running Ability to take extra bases and beat out grounders, and the Speed to steal bases, show the Rockies are the bet, Indians second and Astros third.

The Clutch Defense is 20% for the ability to rob hits in the field, and the Giants are first, followed by the Cardinals and then Padres.

While we are playing the NL season this year, we plan to go through another round of interleague games next to get a look at every team's final roster. If you do not use google docs, you can click here for an image of the cards for all 30 teams.

OverallPark Neutral CardsLine-up OPSrnk (4)rotation erarnk (2)6 relieversrnk (1)OBR/SP Rnk (1)Total CDrnk (2)Wt Ave
12Red Sox0.80443.92123.781922332412.9
24Blue Jays0.745234.47254.022421421521.7
26White Sox0.754215.05294.01235292622.2

Series Summaries - Interleague series for each team after roster set:

Key to games – winning team, starting pitcher, runs, then losing team, starting pitcher and runs. Yes or No for if game is recorded as a 3-game sweep (YES) or 2 games to 1 (NO).

Astros beat Giants 7-2 and 12-2 (credit for 5 of 6 wins) – Giants now 6 behind NL West Dodgers
Hou        Cole       7              SF           Suarez                  2              no                           Ex-Red Scooter Gennett broke up Cole's perfect game with a 5th inning single, then his shutout and the Astros sweep with a 2-run homer to cut the lead to 6-2 in time, but otherwise all Astros.
Hou        Greinke                12           SF           Samardzija                          2              yes                         Greinke's took a no-hitter into the 5th with a 7-0 lead, and the Astros left no doubt on a sweep with 17 hits including Brantley's 5 of 5 with a HR and 2 doubles, and Correa 4 of 4 with 2 HR and a walk.

No comments:

Post a Comment