Sun Belt Conference (SB) 25 MVPs and Top Freshmen

The following are the 25 most valuable players based on their value above a typical replacement player both offensively and defensively at www.valueaddbasketball.com in the Sun Belt Conference (SB).   

Details to follow.

West Coast Conference (WCC) 25 MVPs and Top Freshmen

The following are the 25 most valuable players based on their value above a typical replacement player both offensively and defensively at www.valueaddbasketball.com in the West Coast Conference (WAC).

Details to follow.

Western Athletic Conference (WAC) 25 MVPs and Top Freshmen

The following are the 25 most valuable players based on their value above a typical replacement player both offensively and defensively at www.valueaddbasketball.com in the Western Athletic Conference (WAC) .    

Details to follow.

Most Valuable 50 College Hoops Players & Top 20 Freshmen

Here is a preview of the top freshmen, and then the top 50 most valuable college basketball players from the soon-to-be-updated www.valueaddbasketball.com site. First, the most valuable freshmen, which as I have argued repeatedly are really not the most valuable players in the country due to the number of mistakes (turnovers, poor shot selection etc.) they make, but they are the most spectacular players and will likely mature to cut down on those mistakes and be the best players long-term.

Only the top three freshmen are truly already in the top 50 of the most valuable players in the country.

 

Rnk	Freshmen	Team	Pos	Yr	Offense	Defense	Value
1	Chet Holmgren #34	Gonzaga	C	Fr	5.91	-3.98	9.89
2	Bennedict Mathurin #0	Arizona	G	Fr	6.8	-1.74	8.54
3	Jabari Smith #10	Auburn	F	Fr	5.72	-2.55	8.27
4	Norchad Omier #15	Arkansas St.	C	Fr	5.42	-2.71	8.13
5	Gibson Jimerson #24	Saint Louis	G	Fr	5.41	-1.96	7.37
6	Tyson Degenhart #2	Boise St.	F	Fr	5.39	-1.71	7.1
7	DaRon Holmes #15	Dayton	C	Fr	4.85	-2.25	7.1
8	Malaki Branham #22	Ohio St.	G	Fr	5.43	-1.66	7.09
9	Kendall Brown #2	Baylor	G	Fr	4.85	-1.92	6.77
10	TyTy Washington #3	Kentucky	G	Fr	5.04	-1.65	6.69
11	Kennedy Chandler #1	Tennessee	G	Fr	4.36	-2.29	6.65
12	Johni Broome #4	Morehead St.	C	Fr	3.83	-2.65	6.48
13	Azuolas Tubelis #10	Arizona	F	Fr	4.84	-1.61	6.45
14	Kenneth Lofton #2	Louisiana Tech	C	Fr	4.38	-2.04	6.42
15	Caleb Houstan #22	Michigan	G	Fr	2.98	-3.39	6.37
16	Jadon Jones #12	Long Beach St.	G	Fr	4.02	-2.28	6.3
17	Paolo Banchero #5	Duke	F	Fr	4.39	-1.8	6.19
18	Justin Lewis #10	Marquette	F	Fr	4.27	-1.73	6
19	Malachi Smith #11	Dayton	G	Fr	3.23	-2.69	5.92
20	Dalen Terry #4	Arizona	G	Fr	4.12	-1.71	5.83

Next we go to the actual 50 most valuable players of all. Note, we tweaked the positions. Until now, we have been categorizing players as 1-PG, 2-SG, 3-SF, 4-PF and 5-C based on analytics. However, we found in a number of cases the analytics were not distinguishing well between the first three and in fact that their did not seem to be much of a disadvantage to playing either of those three positions (PG is the hardest position, but the ratings reflect that with credit for assists). 

The real advantage in the rankings is to playing the Center spot or the Power Forward spot, where you often received the ball closer to the basket for easier shots and with a lower chance of turning it over. Therefore, the raw Value Add calculation for a center is multiplied by 0.9, for a power forward by 0.95 and for what we are now considering any of the three guards on the floor a 1.05. This is also more accurate for most line-ups, which do features about three guards due to more and more 3-pointers. With those notes, the most valuable players in college basketball to date in terms of the number of points they improve their team over a standard replacement player are the following:

 

Rnk	Player	Team	Pos	Yr	Offense	Defense	Value
1	Keegan Murray #15	Iowa	F	So	9.84	-2.65	12.49
2	Oscar Tshiebwe #34	Kentucky	C	Jr	7.72	-3.83	11.55
3	Ochai Agbaji #30	Kansas	G	Sr	9.01	-2.38	11.39
4	Alex Barcello #13	BYU	G	Sr	8.98	-2.1	11.08
5	EJ Liddell #32	Ohio St.	F	Jr	8.46	-2.13	10.59
6	Collin Gillespie #2	Villanova	G	Sr	8.74	-1.82	10.56
7	Iverson Molinar #1	Mississippi St.	G	Jr	8.77	-1.62	10.39
8	Tari Eason #13	LSU	F	So	6.78	-3.51	10.29
9	Hunter Dickinson #1	Michigan	C	So	6.98	-3.21	10.19
10	Justin Bean #34	Utah St.	F	Sr	7.82	-2.27	10.09
11	Nijel Pack #24	Kansas St.	G	So	8.44	-1.45	9.89
12	Chet Holmgren #34	Gonzaga	C	Fr	5.91	-3.98	9.89
13	David Roddy #21	Colorado St.	F	Jr	7.94	-1.9	9.84
14	RJ Cole #2	Connecticut	G	Sr	6.93	-2.86	9.79
15	Malachi Smith #13	Chattanooga	G	So	8.09	-1.65	9.74
16	Tylor Perry #5	North Texas	G	Jr	7.96	-1.77	9.73
17	Walker Kessler #13	Auburn	C	So	5.48	-4.25	9.73
18	Kendric Davis #3	SMU	G	Sr	8.06	-1.64	9.7
19	Posh Alexander #0	St. John's	G	So	5.66	-3.89	9.55
20	Jamaree Bouyea #1	San Francisco	G	Sr	6.57	-2.95	9.52
21	Eli Brooks #55	Michigan	G	Sr	5.73	-3.76	9.49
22	Hunter Maldonado #24	Wyoming	G	Sr	7.48	-1.96	9.44
23	Matt Bradley #3	San Diego St.	G	Sr	7.27	-2.12	9.39
24	Trayce Jackson-Davis #23	Indiana	C	So	6.94	-2.45	9.39
25	Teddy Allen #0	New Mexico St.	G	Jr	5.89	-3.42	9.31
26	Terrell Brown #23	Washington	G	Sr	8.36	-0.65	9.01
27	Johnny Davis #1	Wisconsin	G	So	6.27	-2.71	8.98
28	Armando Bacot #5	North Carolina	C	Jr	6.15	-2.83	8.98
29	Baylor Scheierman #3	South Dakota St.	G	So	7.22	-1.56	8.78
30	Lucas Williamson #1	Loyola Chicago	G	Sr	4.9	-3.86	8.76
31	Christian Braun #2	Kansas	F	Jr	6.38	-2.33	8.71
32	Izaiah Brockington #1	Iowa St.	G	Sr	6.92	-1.73	8.65
33	Trent Frazier #1	Illinois	G	Sr	4.82	-3.81	8.63
34	Bennedict Mathurin #0	Arizona	G	Fr	6.8	-1.74	8.54
35	Keon Ellis #14	Alabama	G	Sr	6.52	-1.95	8.47
36	Tevin Brown #10	Murray St.	G	Jr	6.09	-2.38	8.47
37	Brad Davison #34	Wisconsin	G	Sr	6.12	-2.34	8.46
38	Jalen Williams #24	Santa Clara	G	Jr	7.06	-1.36	8.42
39	Isiaih Mosley #1	Missouri St.	G	Jr	6.56	-1.82	8.38
40	Will Richardson #0	Oregon	G	Sr	7.46	-0.9	8.36
41	Santiago Vescovi #25	Tennessee	G	Jr	6.26	-2.1	8.36
42	Sincere Carry #3	Kent St.	G	Jr	6.61	-1.72	8.33
43	Wendell Moore #0	Duke	G	Jr	6.53	-1.77	8.3
44	Bryce Hamilton #13	UNLV	F	Sr	6.66	-1.63	8.29
45	Jabari Smith #10	Auburn	F	Fr	5.72	-2.55	8.27
46	Garrett Sturtz #3	Drake	G	Sr	6	-2.26	8.26
47	Orlando Robinson #10	Fresno St.	C	Jr	5.86	-2.39	8.25
48	Drew Timme #2	Gonzaga	F	Jr	6.2	-2.03	8.23
49	Alondes Williams #31	Wake Forest	G	Sr	6.42	-1.78	8.2
50	Kellan Grady #31	Kentucky	G	Sr	6.14	-2.06	8.2

Pierce's Kansas beats Kentucky's 1st National Champ

After real life heart-breaking losses for my team Marquette against Creighton as well as one of my back-up teams Auburn, I decided to divert attention back to the classic tournament with the Value Add Basketball Game.

When Juwan Howard's altercation took over the sports news, my first thought was to remember if I had his Fab 5 in my game, but then realized I had gone with Glen Rice's Michigan from a few years earlier. Back to the 32-team tournament in progress.

Kansas (1997) 78, Kentucky (1948) 54

Note that among the slight adjustments we made to some cards, Kansas 1997 team had a dunk range of 51-57. Kansas and Kentucky squared off to see who would face the winner of Artis Gilmore's Jacksonsville and Clyde Drexler's Houston.

Alex Groza was a three time All-American, and led Kentucky to their first national title and the US Olympic team to the Gold Medal before being voted NBA Rookie of the Year. His brother Lou Groza is in the football Hall of Fame as the first great field goal kicker.

However, at 6-foot-7 with none of his Fab Five teammates taller than 6-foot-3, the could not keep Paul Pierce and Kansas 1997 twin towers of 6-foot-11 Raef LaFrentz and Scot Pollard off the Boards. with one more point, the whole front line would have ended up with double doubles with Pierce (22 points, 10 rebounds), LaFrantz (9,14) and Pollard (15,13).

Pierce gave Kansas their first lead with 4:22 to go in the 1st half when he grabbed three consecutive offensive rebounds, and finally converted the third one for a 24-23 lead. A few minutes later Pierce made the first free throw and missed the second, but LaFrantz grabbed the offensive rebound and was fouled - hitting both free throws to make it 29-27. 

With 13:11 to go in the game, Pollard put it away when he grabbed an offensive rebound, and fed it to Pierce who dunked for a 53-39 lead and they never looked back.

By the time Kansas won 78-54, they had won the rebounding battle 44-29.

Here is the tournament to date.

All-Americans Listed by 1st, 2nd and 3rd Teams

Last week we posted the prospects for the 1st, 2nd and 3rd team All-American squads as picked by position and based on their true offensive and defensive value to their team above a replacement player, as calculated at www.valueaddbasketball.com. This follow-up post is response to two requests; 1) to list the All-Americans by 1st, 2nd and 3rd team, and 2) to move Chattanooga's All-American Malachi Smith to his true position of point guard even though the fact that he grabs many defensive rebounds makes him "look" like a small forward to the analytics at www.kenpom.com and www.valueaddbasketball.com.

The following are the lists in that order, starting with the most valuable PG, SG, SF, PF and C as the 1st Team All-Americans. As noted many times, freshmen are almost always the "best" players in the country because the best leave for the NBA after one year. However, they actually are rarely the "most valuable" because they still make too many mistakes. Thus you will see none of the superstar freshmen in the 15 players to make our All-American teams, but we listed the corresponding three All-American Freshman teams below.

Pos	1st Team All-Americans	Team	Value	Conf	Ht	Cl
PG	Collin Gillespie #2	Villanova	9.33	BE	6'3"	Sr
SG	Terrell Brown #23	Washington	10.42	P12	6'3"	Sr
SF	Matt Bradley #3	San Diego St.	9.3	MWC	6'4"	Sr
PF	Keegan Murray #15	Iowa	10.86	B10	6'8"	So
C	Oscar Tshiebwe #34	Kentucky	11.14	SEC	6'9"	Jr

Next the 2nd team:

Pos	2nd Team All-Americans	Team	Value	Conf	Ht	Cl
PG	Malachi Smith #13	Chattanooga	9.28	SC	6'4"	So
SG	Nijel Pack #24	Kansas St.	9.39	B12	6'0	So
SF	Ochai Agbaji #30	Kansas	8.6	B12	6'5"	Sr
PF	EJ Liddell #32	Ohio St.	9.93	B10	6'7"	Jr
C	Trayce Jackson-Davis #23	Indiana	8.94	B10	6'9"	So

And finally the 3rd team:

Pos	3rd Team All-Americans	Team	Value	Conf	Ht	Cl
PG	Iverson Molinar #1	Mississippi St.	8.68	SEC	6'3"	Jr
SG	Posh Alexander #0	St. John's	8.8	BE	6'0	So
SF	Lucas Williamson #1	Loyola Chicago	8.28	MVC	6'4"	Sr
PF	Justin Bean #34	Utah St.	9.69	MWC	6'7"	Sr
C	Walker Kessler #13	Auburn	8.66	SEC	7'1"	So

As for the freshmen, the following are the 1st three All-Freshmen teams first posted in this story. We do not insist on position balance with the freshman, but did required that at least one guard make each of the three teams.

Top Prospects At All 5 Positions for All-American College Basketball Honors

After 112 million watched a thrilling Super Bowl, the other long-time $1 billion sporting event of the year - March Madness - is right around the corner.

When choosing an All-American College Basketball Team, you can go with the BEST player at each position - who is usually a freshman heading for the NBA. Or you can go for the player who is truly most valuable at the position - which is almost always NOT a freshman, but a player who has learned not to make mistakes that offset some of the good he does for his team. We break down the best options in this blog, and our separate blog on each of the five positions.

For the Freshman All-American Team you can click on this CBS Sports 247 Link.

The one thing we do believe you should consider, and which seems all but ignored in most voting and most analytical systems except for www.valueaddbasketball.com, is the defense of each candidate. This CBS Sports site goes into great detail on how this is calculated, pointing out that taking away points helps a team win just as much as scoring points. If you are considering All-Conference players, you can click on www.valueaddbasketball.com and sort by conference.

Top Candidates for All-American Point Guard "1"

For the full blog on point guards, click here.

Rnk	Top 10 Freshman PG	Team	VA5	Conf	HtText	Cl
23	Kennedy Chandler #1	Tennessee	6.08	SEC	6'0	Fr
52	Zakai Zeigler #5	Tennessee	4.92	SEC	5'9"	Fr
58	Malachi Smith #11	Dayton	4.71	A10	6'0	Fr
60	Jalen Cook #3	Tulane	4.54	Amer	6'0	Fr
66	Jao Ituka #10	Marist	4.22	MAAC	6'1"	Fr

If anyone had any doubts about Collin Gillespie being the top point guard in the country, they should watch how he has brought Villanova surging back into the top 10 - and the difference it made last year when he was injured for March Madness. It is a very close battle for 2nd Team All-American Point Guard between Mississippi State's Iverson Molinar and SMU's Kendric Davis. 

It may look strange to have Wyoming's super star Hunter Maldonado listed at point guard despite standing 6-foot-7, but he is in the top half percent of all players in assist rate - dishing and making everyone else score for a team that appears to be heading to March Madness.

 

Rnk	Top Point Guards (1)	Team	VA5	Conf	HtText	Cl
1	Collin Gillespie #2	Villanova	9.33	BE	6'3"	Sr
2	Iverson Molinar #1	Mississippi St.	8.68	SEC	6'3"	Jr
3	Kendric Davis #3	SMU	8.54	Amer	6'0	Sr
4	Hunter Maldonado #24	Wyoming	8.08	MWC	6'7"	Sr
5	Jamaree Bouyea #1	San Francisco	8.06	WCC	6'2"	Sr
6	Payton Willis #0	Minnesota	7.92	B10	6'4"	Sr
7	Tylor Perry #5	North Texas	7.77	CUSA	5'11"	Jr
8	Trent Frazier #1	Illinois	7.77	B10	6'2"	Sr
9	Baylor Scheierman #3	South Dakota St.	7.45	Sum	6'6"	So
10	Will Richardson #0	Oregon	7.44	P12	6'5"	Sr

Top Candidates for All-American Shooting Guard "2"

For the full blog on shooting guards, click here.

Rnk	Top Freshmen SG	Team	VA5	Conf	HtText	Cl
15	TyTy Washington #3	Kentucky	6.34	SEC	6'3"	Fr
20	Dalen Terry #4	Arizona	5.65	P12	6'7"	Fr
38	Trevor Keels #1	Duke	4.72	ACC	6'4"	Fr
50	Terquavion Smith #0	N.C. State	4.35	ACC	6'4"	Fr
60	Steele Venters #2	Eastern Washington	4.18	BSky	6'7"	Fr

One reason we love running these numbers is to find truly elite players who will not be noticed because their team either does not get enough TV coverage or is just not winning enough games to draw attention. The biggest case this year comes from teh 13-10 Washington in the Pac-12. We calculte that Washington would be 4-19 instead of 13-10 if Terrell Brown were not on the team, and for us that makes him the truly deserving 1st team All-American shooting guard who will not get any voters for it.

The race for 2nd and 3rd team All-American shooting buard is much closer.  TyTy Washington should be considered because it is truly unusual for a freshman guard to be anywhere near this high - but K-State, St. John's, BYU, Tennessee and the player who may have improved his team the most this year from last year - Alondes Williams of Wake Forest.

 

Rnk	Top Shooting Guards (2)	Team	VA5	Conf	HtText	Cl
1	Terrell Brown #23	Washington	10.42	P12	6'3"	Sr
2	Nijel Pack #24	Kansas St.	9.39	B12	6'0	So
3	Posh Alexander #0	St. John's	8.8	BE	6'0	So
4	Alex Barcello #13	BYU	8.69	WCC	6'2"	Sr
5	Santiago Vescovi #25	Tennessee	8.65	SEC	6'3"	Jr
6	Alondes Williams #31	Wake Forest	8.15	ACC	6'5"	Sr
7	Garrett Sturtz #3	Drake	7.66	MVC	6'3"	Sr
8	Justin Moore #5	Villanova	7.53	BE	6'4"	Jr
9	Jaden Ivey #23	Purdue	7.05	B10	6'4"	So
10	Brad Davison #34	Wisconsin	6.97	B10	6'4"	Sr

Top Candidates for All-American Small Forward "3"

For the full blog on small forwards, click here.

Rnk	Top Freshmen Small Forwards	Team	VA5	Conf	HtText	Cl
9	Bennedict Mathurin #0	Arizona	7.32	P12	6'6"	Fr
17	Kendall Brown #2	Baylor	6.07	B12	6'8"	Fr
38	Ricky Council #4	Wichita St.	4.97	Amer	6'6"	Fr
53	Alijah Martin #15	Florida Atlantic	4.41	CUSA	6'2"	Fr
56	Jadon Jones #12	Long Beach St.	4.4	BW	6'5"	Fr

If you were picking an All-American team based by position, the Small Forward or "3" spot would be the toughest choice. Mathurin certainly is close enough to the top players to be considered due to freshmen surging at the end of the year. However, Wisconsin's Johnny Davis, San Diego State's Matt Bradley, Chattanooga's Malachi Smith, Loyola's Lucas Williamson and Iowa State's Izaiah Brockingham could all be serious considered as the most valuable small forward in college basketball.

 

Rnk	Top Overall Small Forwards (3)	Team	VA5	Conf	HtText	Cl
1	Matt Bradley #3	San Diego St.	9.3	MWC	6'4"	Sr
2	Malachi Smith #13	Chattanooga	8.84	SC	6'4"	So
3	Ochai Agbaji #30	Kansas	8.6	B12	6'5"	Sr
4	Lucas Williamson #1	Loyola Chicago	8.28	MVC	6'4"	Sr
5	Johnny Davis #1	Wisconsin	7.9	B10	6'5"	So
6	Izaiah Brockington #1	Iowa St.	7.79	B12	6'4"	Sr
7	Keon Ellis #14	Alabama	7.48	SEC	6'6"	Sr
8	Wendell Moore #0	Duke	7.34	ACC	6'5"	Jr
9	Bennedict Mathurin #0	Arizona	7.32	P12	6'6"	Fr
10	Darryl Morsell #32	Marquette	7.04	BE	6'5"	Sr

Top Candidates for All-American Power Forward "4"

For the full blog on power forwards, click here.

Rnk	Top Freshmen Power Forwards	Team	VA5	Conf	HtText	Cl
7	Jabari Smith #10	Auburn	7.14	SEC	6'10"	Fr
11	Paolo Banchero #5	Duke	6.69	ACC	6'10"	Fr
18	Justin Lewis #10	Marquette	6.28	BE	6'7"	Fr
23	Tyson Degenhart #2	Boise St.	6.13	MWC	6'7"	Fr
27	Azuolas Tubelis #10	Arizona	5.9	P12	6'11"	Fr

A voter would certainly be justified in placing Smith, likely the No. 1 pick in the NBA draft, as the 1st Team All-American Power Forward. However, if the entire season including early games were rated evenly, the 1st and 2nd Team All-American should really go to two Big Ten stars. Ohio State's EJ Liddell may have been the most valuable player over the course of the last two seasons, while Keegan Murray of Iowa has been able to explode now that his teammate and National Player of the Year Luka Garza has graduated.

Rnk	Top Freshmen Power Forwards	Team	VA5	Conf	HtText	Cl
1	Keegan Murray #15	Iowa	10.86	B10	6'8"	So
2	EJ Liddell #32	Ohio St.	9.93	B10	6'7"	Jr
3	Justin Bean #34	Utah St.	9.69	MWC	6'7"	Sr
4	Tari Eason #13	LSU	9.25	SEC	6'8"	So
5	David Roddy #21	Colorado St.	8.84	MWC	6'6"	Jr
6	Christian Braun #2	Kansas	7.54	B12	6'6"	Jr
7	Jabari Smith #10	Auburn	7.14	SEC	6'10"	Fr
8	Vince Williams #10	VCU	6.9	A10	6'6"	Sr
9	Jaime Jaquez #24	UCLA	6.81	P12	6'7"	Jr
10	Jake LaRavia #0	Wake Forest	6.77	ACC	6'8"	Jr

Top Candidates for All-American Center "5"

For the full blog on centers, click here.

Rnk	Top Freshmen Centers	Team	VA5	Conf	HtText	Cl
5	Chet Holmgren #34	Gonzaga	8.52	WCC	7'0	Fr
8	Norchad Omier #15	Arkansas St.	7.79	SB	6'7"	Fr
12	Kenneth Lofton #2	Louisiana Tech	7.03	CUSA	6'7"	Fr
18	Johni Broome #4	Morehead St.	6.68	OVC	6'10"	Fr
34	DaRon Holmes #15	Dayton	5.84	A10	6'10"	Fr

In true value, our calculations indicate the 1st Team All-American so far should come from Kentucky, and Holgrem is in a tight races for the 2nd Team All-American center with stars from Indiana, Auburn and UNC.

 

Rnk	Top Centers (5)	Team	VA5	Conf	HtText	Cl
1	Oscar Tshiebwe #34	Kentucky	11.14	SEC	6'9"	Jr
2	Trayce Jackson-Davis #23	Indiana	8.94	B10	6'9"	So
3	Walker Kessler #13	Auburn	8.66	SEC	7'1"	So
4	Armando Bacot #5	North Carolina	8.6	ACC	6'10"	Jr
5	Chet Holmgren #34	Gonzaga	8.52	WCC	7'0	Fr
6	Orlando Robinson #10	Fresno St.	8.4	MWC	7'0	Jr
7	Hunter Dickinson #1	Michigan	7.89	B10	7'1"	So
8	Norchad Omier #15	Arkansas St.	7.79	SB	6'7"	Fr
9	Jack Nunge #24	Xavier	7.61	BE	7'0	Jr
10	KJ Williams #0	Murray St.	7.27	OVC	6'10"	Jr