Showing posts with label West Coast Conference. Show all posts
Showing posts with label West Coast Conference. Show all posts

Tuesday, November 21, 2023

WCC with Dominant Gonzaga and the Return of Value Add Rankings

All-West Coast Conf     Team                         Value  AdjO  AdjD   Notes
Drew TimmeGonzaga9.21119.699.33-seed, 31-6, Poss 30.6%
Cam SheltonLoyola Marymount8.45116.8103.819-12 (PG), Poss 30.4%
Alex DucasSaint Mary's8.36120.791.45-seed, 27-8, Poss 18.3%
Malachi SmithGonzaga8.26130.499.33-seed, 31-6, Poss 16.9%
Brandin PodziemskiSanta Clara8.02120.5100.823-10, nba 19 in 2023
2nd T-West Coast ConfTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Anton WatsonGonzaga7.73125.699.33-seed, 31-6, Poss 18%
Tyrell RobertsSan Francisco7.67119103.320-14 (PG), Poss 20.2%
Fousseyni TraoreBYU7.43115.497.719-15, Poss 25%
Khalil ShabazzSan Francisco6.92113.1103.320-14 (PG), Poss 24.7%
Julian StrawtherGonzaga6.69117.299.33-seed, 31-6, nba 29 in 2023
HM-West Coast ConfTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Luke AvdalovicPacific5.31128.1109.315-18, Poss 12.3%
Keylan BoonePacific4.80116.2109.315-18, Poss 26.1%
Moses WoodPortland4.17115.3109.814-19, Poss 21.2%

Above is a very late All-West Coast Conference team from the 2022-23 season, and we will be updating these and the top 300 players at www.valueaddbasketball.com to go along with the rankings going back to the 2001-02 season. While this system received rave reviews from Sports Illustrated, ESPN, Fox Sports and many others, last season we skipped because we lost the ability to rank all 4000 players who take the court for D1 action.

The one huge loss in realignment is Brigham Young University and a nation of Latter Day Saint basketball fans moving to the Big 12, but other than that the conference remains strong with Gonzaga and Saint Mary's, as well as a San Francisco team with NCAA title history and potential future.

While Value Add Conference MVP Drew Timme left without a title, his Gonzaga teams will go down as some of the greatest in history, and the Zags appear ready to compete as a 1- or 2-seed again. Note above that Brandin Podziemski of Santa Clara was the 19th pick in the NBA draft to come in 10 spots ahead of the Zags Julian Strawther.
 
Team                        2023    2024    2025     Seed23   Rnk24
BYUWCCB12B12 12
GonzagaWCCWCCWCC38
Loyola MarymountWCCWCCWCC 123
PacificWCCWCCWCC 228
PepperdineWCCWCCWCC 192
PortlandWCCWCCWCC 196
Saint Mary'sWCCWCCWCC574
San DiegoWCCWCCWCC 230
San FranciscoWCCWCCWCC 80
Santa ClaraWCCWCCWCC 103

Better late than never - this is one of 32 lists of All-Conference teams based on the "resurrected" Value Add Basketball rankings at www.valueaddbasketball.com. The other 31 releases of Conference teams will all include this same explanation for the rest of the blog, including the 10 returning All-Americans and top 60 players from last season listed further down.

This paragraph is of interest to stat nerds only. The offensive ratings were easier to recreate, since the basis was to pull hundreds of players ranked as the most efficient last season (AdjO at www.kenpom.com) and adjusting their figures for their percent of possessions. A player who can produce about 1.2 points per time he has the ball who also gets the ball 25% of the time against tough competition and as part of a strong defense can be All-American level, but a player who doesn't get the ball nearly as often but produces even more at 1.3 points per possession can still be All-Conference even if fans feel other players handling and shooting the ball more are better due to higher points scored per game.

The new simplified system weighs their ability to produce points against the Adjusted Defense (AdjD) - that is how many points per 100 trips would their team allow against an average D1 team. This accounts both for defense and for level of competition. We also note if a player is a Point Guard, the most important position on the court.

The resulting "Value" listed in the third column is the Value Add of points the player would improve an average team over if he could not play if a decent replacement took his place. Zach Edey was by far the most valuable player in the country last year at 13.17 meaning typically he would turn a 65-70 loss for a team into a 72-64 win - a 13 point swing. The notes off to the first indicated the team's record, their seed if they made the tournament, and then if they went to the NBA in the 2023 draft or are projected to go in the 2024 or 2025 draft.

1st and 2nd Team Returning All-Americans; and Top 60 Players from Last Season
 
The table below is the list of the 30 most valuable players in college basketball for the 2022-23 season according to our simplified www.valueaddbasketball.com rankings. Obviously most of these top players finished their eligibility or went pro so are no longer playing. However, if we made this our All-American teams of returning players including transfers at their new school the headline would be from Creighton.

1st Team Returning All-Americans - Value Add Basketball calculates that Creighton now has two of the three most valuable players in 2022-23 in returning Ryan Kalkbrenner and Utah State transfer Steven Ashworth. Ironically, Thursday it was Colorado State that handed Creighton its first loss - a team that Ashworth had dominated four of seven times in conference games at Utah State. The other 1st Team All-Americans based on last year's Value Add would be J'Wan Roberts returning for Houston, and then Tylor Perry who transferred from North Texas to Kansas State.

Most Valuable Player for 2nd Year. However, the far and away Most Valuable Player in the Country could challenge Anthony DavisJon Scheyer and Zion Williamson for as the most Valuable college player of the century in the All-Time Value Add Basketball Rankings - Zach Edey who was almost 2 points better than anyone in the country last year at Purdue and has them at No. 1 this season.

2nd Team Returning All-Americans - The 6th most valuable returning player according to Value Add is Marquette Point Guard Tyler Kolek. He would be joined on a second team All-American squad of returning players by Tennessee's Santiago Vescovi, Texas transfer from Oral Roberts Max Abmas, Duke's Ryan Young, Arizona's Azuolas Tubelis and finally Cam Spencer, who transferred from Rutgers to UConn.

In all, 18 of the top 30 players finished their college careers, leaving those 10 returning All-Americans and then two other players - JaKobe Coles of TCU and USC's Boogie Ellis.
 
All-American 1st Team    Team               Value    AdjO  AdjDNotes                                                
Zach EdeyPurdue13.17125.994.51-seed, 29-6, nba 58 in 2024
Adama Sanogo (gone)Connecticut11.37122.690.94-seed, 31-8, Poss 26.4%
Marcus Sasser (gone)Houston11.25123.490.41-seed, 33-4, nba 25 in 2023
Ryan KalkbrennerCreighton10.80133.493.26-seed, 24-13, Poss 19.4%
Steven Ashworth (Creigh)Utah St.10.72127.798.910-seed, 26-9 (PG), Poss 21.6%
All-American 2nd TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Tylor Perry (K-State)North Texas10.37124.394.131-7, Poss 24.4%
Brandon Miller (gone)Alabama10.23117.088.21-seed, 31-6, nba 2 in 2023
Xavier Castaneda (gone)Akron9.94121.9103.422-11 (PG), Poss 29.4%
J'Wan RobertsHouston9.90127.990.41-seed, 33-4, Poss 18.4%
Jordan Hawkins (gone)Connecticut9.88121.290.94-seed, 31-8, nba 14 in 2023
All-American 3rd TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Jaime Jaquez (gone)UCLA9.80113.1882-seed, 31-6, nba 18 in 2023
Jalen Pickett (gone)Penn St.9.66118.7101.110-seed, 23-14 (PG), nba 32 in 2023
Jordan Walker (gone)UAB9.64114.797.929-10 (PG), Poss 30.6%
Tyler KolekMarquette9.6311896.72-seed, 29-7 (PG), Poss 24.1%
Santiago VescoviTennessee9.52114.287.54-seed, 25-11 (PG), Poss 18.8%
All-American 4th TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Max Abmas (Texas)Oral Roberts9.47120.2102.212-seed, 30-5 (PG), Poss 27.6%
Trayce Jackson-Davis (g)Indiana9.45118.597.24-seed, 23-12, nba 57 in 2023
Ryan YoungDuke9.37128.793.95-seed, 27-9, Poss 18.3%
Kendric Davis (grad)Memphis9.24111.196.18-seed, 26-9 (PG), Poss 31.6%
Drew Timme (grad)Gonzaga9.21119.699.33-seed, 31-6, Poss 30.6%
All-American 5th TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Markquis Nowell (gone)Kansas St.8.92111953-seed, 26-10 (PG), Poss 27.6%
Souley Boum (gone)Xavier8.87119.298.63-seed, 27-10 (PG), Poss 21.2%
Oscar Tshiebwe (gone)Kentucky8.83122.698.86-seed, 22-12, Poss 24.5%
Terence Lewis (gone)Louisiana8.74131.2102.913-seed, 26-8, Poss 20.3%
Darius McGhee (gone)Liberty8.68114.597.527-9, Poss 33.4%
All-American 6th TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Azuolas TubelisArizona8.68116.196.32-seed, 28-7, Poss 28.7%
Cam Spencer (UConn)Rutgers8.66119.490.819-15, Poss 19.8%
Sir'Jabari Rice (gone)Texas8.66116.392.12-seed, 29-9, Poss 23.4%
JaKobe ColesTCU8.64118.494.36-seed, 22-13, Poss 23.4%
Boogie EllisUSC8.56113.397.510-seed, 22-11 (PG), Poss 25.7%





Sunday, November 20, 2022

College Hoops 18 Greatest Teams In History of Other Conferences

The 18 great all-time teams that play in a conference that has fewer than six all-time great teams were put together in our "other teams" grouping. Our ratings are based on how the top 6 teams in each great conference have played against some of the greatest college basketball teams in history in the Value Add College Basketball Game (see details at the bottom) - and if we treated this group of other teams they would rank between the 7th best conference (the American Athletic) and the 8th best conference (the A10).

We have only played one game with the most exciting member of this group - Larry Bird who went up against Magic Johnson in perhaps the most important college basketball game in history.

The top 6 teams in this group so far have gone 6-8 against the other great all-time teams, and have a combined rating of 3.1. That means those teams average being 3.1 better than the average team IN THE GAME, but the average team in the game is about 21 points better than an average team.

Therefore the Gonzaga team's ranking of +8.7 means they are rated about 29.7 points better than the average team. That team narrowly missed the perfect season by losing the last game of the regular season to BYU, and then the title game to UNC.

The lists also features one Ivy League team - the Princeton squad that featured US Senator and Presidential candidate Bill Bradley.

While the West Coast Conference features three of the top five other teams, we only broke out conferences with at least six all-time great teams in the game. The other two great teams are the highest scoring team in the NCAA history, which is averaging winning 120-110 in their 1-1 start this year, and had the tragedy of Hank Gathers dying of a heart condition at the end of the season after having become the first player in history to lead the nation in rebounding and points. The third WCC team on the list is the great Bill Russell's 1956 team.



RnkGreat TeamYearKey PlayerWLPtsAllowRate
 Top 6 Other Conf  6878.877.63.1
1Gonzaga (WCC)2017Nigel Williams-Goss3369.863.08.7
2UNLV (MWC)1991Larry Johnson1176.575.57.3
3Loyola Marymount (WCC)1990Bo Kimble11119.5110.02.3
4Loyola-Chicago (WVC)1963Jerry Harkness0162.068.00.6
5San Francisco (WCC)1956Bill Russell0167.074.00.0
6Jacksonville (Asun)1970Artis Gilmore1178.075.0-0.3
7UTEP (TX Western, CUSA)1966Bobby Joe Hill2163.766.0-1.4
8San Diego St. (MWC)2011Kawhi Leonard2269.371.8-2.9
9UNLV (MWC)1987Armen Gilliam0164.082.0-3.4
10Holy Cross (Pat)1950Bob Cousy1188.089.5-5.2
11Seattle (WAC)1958Elgin Baylor0162.064.0-6.2
12Indiana St. (MVC)1979Larry Bird0169.076.0-7.8
13Wyoming (MWC)1943Ken Sailors0160.073.0-8.2
14North Carolina (MAAC)1957Lennie Rosenbluth0176.089.0-8.6
15Navy (Pat)1986David Robinson0161.077.0-9.0
16Princeton (Ivy)1965Bill Bradley0162.079.0-13.0
17Loyola-Chicago (MVC)2018Cameron Krutwig0359.375.0-13.9
18Niagara (MAAC)1970Calvin Murphy0168.084.0-16.6



We invented the Value Add Basketball Game, and since then have grown it to to 135 teams of all-time great teams and players. We have played 188 games to date, and 63,000 unique visitors have clicked on the game. 

Seven current conferences have at least six all-time great teams in the game. We decided to rank those conferences based on the average rating of their top six teams so far in our games against other teams.

Click on the game to play yourself - it contains everything you need to play the Value Add Basketball game, which lets you pit any of 136 great all-time college teams against each other. To pick your two teams it is best to click on this Google doc and print the pages of the teams you want (each team is one page). I track my games on this google sheet, but play your own for free!

Friday, February 25, 2022

West Coast Conference (WCC) 25 MVPs and Top Freshmen

The following are the 25 most valuable players based on their value above a typical replacement player both offensively and defensively at www.valueaddbasketball.com in the West Coast Conference (WAC).



Details to follow.

Tuesday, January 18, 2022

West Coast All-Conference Team Based on Value Add Ratings Through January 17

We updated the Value Add Basketball All-Conference teams initially posted at Christmas. Note that we list the number of games played and started for each player, so you know if a particular game performance was included, and find all 4000+ players listed at www.valueaddbasketball.com

BYUs Alex Barcello slipped slightly nationally from No. 1 in the country to No. 5, but still a 1st team All-American, while San Francisco's Jamaree Bouyea just misses All-American as the No. 18 player in the country. Those two and Saint Mary's Matthias Tass seemed poised to give the WCC four teams NCAA bids, but probably unlikely and of the three can catch Gonzaga after the Zags beat BYU 110-84.

Click on Top 25 Value Add Basketball Players & Top 15 in Each Conference to see the top 25 players in the country and links to the other 31 conference lists like the one below.

 
RnkWCC All-ConferenceTeamValueHtClAdjOAdjDGms, Starts
1Alex Barcello #13BYU10.126'2"Sr8.87-1.25GP,GS: 17, 17
2Jamaree Bouyea #1San Francisco8.436'2"Sr6.46-1.97GP,GS: 17, 17
3Chet Holmgren #34Gonzaga7.447'0Fr4.53-2.91GP,GS: 16, 16
4Drew Timme #2Gonzaga7.006'10"Jr5.88-1.12GP,GS: 16, 16
5Jalen Williams #24Santa Clara6.636'6"Jr6.12-0.51GP,GS: 17, 17
6Matthias Tass #11Saint Mary's6.546'10"Sr5.17-1.37GP,GS: 16, 16
7Keshawn Justice #14Santa Clara6.416'7"Sr5.30-1.11GP,GS: 17, 17
8Julian Strawther #0Gonzaga6.326'7"So5.04-1.28GP,GS: 16, 16
9Fousseyni Traore #45BYU5.806'6"Fr3.89-1.91GP,GS: 17, 5
10Yauhen Massalski #25San Francisco5.446'9"Sr3.71-1.73GP,GS: 17, 17
11Anton Watson #22Gonzaga5.216'8"Jr3.04-2.17GP,GS: 16, 0
12Rasir Bolton #45Gonzaga5.136'3"Sr4.73-0.40GP,GS: 16, 16
13Andrew Nembhard #3Gonzaga4.736'5"Sr3.39-1.34GP,GS: 16, 16
14Kyle Bowen #14Saint Mary's4.346'8"Jr2.24-2.09GP,GS: 16, 16
15Tommy Kuhse #12Saint Mary's4.316'2"Sr2.81-1.49GP,GS: 16, 12

Saturday, December 25, 2021

West Coast Conference Top 15 Men’s Basketball Players To Date

 For Immediate Release

John Pudner, 404.606.3163, johnp@takebackaction.org


West Coast Conference Top 15 Men’s Basketball Players To Date


“Value Add Basketball is happy to provide the early list of the conferences top 15 men’s  basketball players based on proven analytics used by NBA teams for draft prep,as well as writers at Sports Illustrated, ESPN, NBC Sports, Fox Sports,” said John Pudner, the inventor of the system.”


“Seven years ago we drew attention by tabbing Utah’s Delon Wright as the most valuable player in the country, and now it is their intra-state rival that has the best early season not only in the WCC,but in the nation - BYU’s Alex Barcello. San Francisco’s 12-1 start and chance to contend at least for 2nd place is led by a second non-Zag playing at an All-American level, point guard Jamaree Bouyea, who ranks as the 8th most valuable player in the country.”


“Gonzaga remains the team to beat with two players we rank as almost sure NBA players (Chet Holmgren 97% and Julian Strawther 85%) and another two who have a 50-50 shot (Drew Timme and Andrew Nembhard both 47%), but they will have some stars to contain to get there.


We list a few additional considerations for All-Defense and other NBA prospects below the Top 15.


You can click on this google doc with information on all 4,000+ players prior to it being posted on www.valueaddbasketball.com. You can also click here for the top 100 players in the country.


Information includes each player’s chance of making the NBA, his Value Add Rating for how many points he impacts a typical game (roughly 10 points is All-American level). The key to the table is: Rank = the player's conference ranking, Value Add = how many points he improves his team over a replacement player, Class = if he is in his 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th and final year of eligibility, Ht = his height, AdjD = how many points he takes away from opponents, and NBA = his percent chance of making the NBA.


Feel free to use any information contained in these statements as wanted, and email (johnp@takebackaction.org), or text/call 404.606.3163 for any questions or additional quotes from John Pudner.


RankWCCTeamValue AddClassHtAdjDNBA
1Alex BarcelloBYU10.78Sr6'2"-1.3747%
2Jamaree BouyeaSan Francisco9.27Sr6'2"-2.6770%
3Chet HolmgrenGonzaga7.95Fr7'0-3.9497%
4Matthias TassSaint Mary's6.98Sr6'10"-1.61%
5Julian StrawtherGonzaga6.77So6'7"-1.7285%
6Jalen WilliamsSanta Clara6.45Jr6'6"-0.891%
7Drew TimmeGonzaga6.44Jr6'10"-1.4247%
8Keshawn JusticeSanta Clara6.28Sr6'7"-1.941%
9Joe QuintanaLoyola Marymount5.8Sr6'2"-0.841%
10Yauhen MassalskiSan Francisco5.03Sr6'9"-2.531%
11Tommy KuhseSaint Mary's4.79Sr6'2"-1.881%
12Fousseyni TraoreBYU4.73Fr6'6"-2.41%
13Anton WatsonGonzaga4.7Jr6'8"-2.4723%
14Rasir BoltonGonzaga4.43Sr6'3"-0.4623%
15Dan FotuSaint Mary's4.39Sr6'7"-1.771%
DefKyle BowenSaint Mary's4.33Jr6'8"-2.851%
DefLogan JohnsonSaint Mary's2.32Sr6'2"-2.621%
DefTerrell BrownSan Diego1.83Sr6'10"-2.471%
DefCaleb LohnerBYU1.54So6'8"-2.091%
DefGideon GeorgeBYU2.26Sr6'6"-1.991%
NBAAndrew NembhardGonzaga4.05Sr6'5"-1.9447%
NBAHunter SallisGonzaga2.9Fr6'5"-1.5731%
NBAMitchell SaxenSaint Mary's0.84So6'10"-0.975%
NBANolan HickmanGonzaga3.81Fr6'2"-0.8720%