Statis-Pro NL Season Continues With Current Rosters - Click to Play - Archive

Most current season updates here.

Here is the Game log continues to be updated here. The most current updates will always be here, but this is an archive of the early season updates.

The following standings result from playing the free Statis-Pro baseball game using these 2019 projected player cards for 1000+ potential MLB sorted by current rosters. Updates on the previous games through January 17, 2019 and reviews appear here.

NL East
Nationals 7-5 0 - 0.768  - Scherzer almost perfect in debut and adding Corbin gives Nats best rotation
Mets 7-5 0 - Cespedes stars to sweep Nats, but will he really return in key life in 2019?
Braves 7-5 0- Donaldson now hitting clean-up after Freeman completes great 1-4 hitters, gloves
Phillies 6-6 2  Finally made them play Cubs after trying to wait for Harper's decision.

Marlins 3-9 4

NL Central
Pirates 9-3 0 Dominicans Starling Marte/Greg Polanco dominating at top of line-up
Cubs 4-2 2  - tired of waiting for Harper and had them play Phillies, longshot Kris Bryant gets Harper
Brewers 6-6 3 - Will dominant relievers be enough to repeat?
Reds 5-7 4 - Puig, Wood and Kemp from Dodgers great, but can they get any relief pitching?
Cardinals 4-8 5 - Andrew Miller goes 9th and 10th to beat Brewers

NL West
Diamondbacks 9-3 0 - pitching still loaded and team slump of 2018 yielding to hot start in 2019
Padres 8-4 1 Newly acquired Hosmer hitting behind speedster Margot proving a killer 1-2 punch
Giants 3-3 3
Dodgers 5-7 4  Proved very vulnerable to lefties with Puig/Kemp gone; obviously they will add

Rockies 1-5 5 - "neutral park" projections make pitching pretty good, line-up not quite as dominant 

Game log will be kept on this google sheet and periodically pasted below. We pay each game counts as 3, with the winner getting 2 wins and the loser 1 win UNLESS winning team led by at least 5 runs after 8 innings without using their closer. In that case winning teams "sweeps" the series 3-0. We finally tired of waiting for Bryce Harper's decision, so had the Phillies and Cubs play without him and the Cubs won the series. A big acquisition that may pay off is Eric Hosner, who took the Brewers to the top mark in our Statis-Pro season last year and has scorched the Braves and Dodgers in our first two offseason series.

SD	Paddock	2	LAD	Buehler	1	No	1/5/2019	Newly acquired Hosmer reached 6 of 10 times in the series including 3 doubles and they key 9th inning single of Jansen after speedster Margot singled and stole to give Padres 2-1 win
SD	Lamet	9	LAD	Ferguson	2	Sweep	1/5/2019	Dodgers best player cards, but like the 1927 Yanks proved vulnerable vs a lefty starter and 5 lefty relievers, and w/ rookie replacing traded Wood, SD's Hosmer's onslaught continued off rookie Ferguson in 5-0 1st inning of 9-2 Sweep.

Projections and Background BEFORE Season

Here is the summary of how good each team's Statis-Pro cards appear to be:

	OPS lineup		Rotation		Fielding		Relievers		Total Rating
Dodgers	0.785	10	3.64	8	27	4	3.73	5	65
Cubs	0.786	10	3.82	7	34	7	3.84	3	64
Cardinals	0.783	10	4.03	5	40	10	3.88	2	61
Nationals	0.768	8	3.49	10	26	4	3.65	6	59
Mets	0.776	9	3.64	8	24	3	3.85	3	57
Pirates	0.769	8	3.9	6	20	1	3.71	5	50
Reds	0.772	8	4.04	5	28	5	4	0	47
Braves	0.764	7	4.14	5	27	4	3.67	6	47
Brewers	0.751	5	4.27	4	32	6	3.47	10	44
Rockies	0.742	4	3.75	8	28	5	3.68	6	41
Padres	0.731	2	3.69	8	28	5	3.6	7	38
Phillies	0.758	6	4.05	5	18	0	3.87	2	37
Giants	0.734	3	4.23	4	38	9	3.53	8	37
Diamondbacks	0.713	0	3.57	9	30	5	3.47	10	33
Marlins	0.729	2	4.72	0	26	4	4.41	0	12

Game log will be kept on this google sheet and periodically pasted below. We pay each game counts as 3, with the winner getting 2 wins and the loser 1 win UNLESS winning team led by at least 5 runs after 8 innings without using their closer. In that case winning teams "sweeps" the series 3-0.

To try it out Print projected player sheets for all 2019 players and free dice version of game (just add dice in photo below) and print Out Chart. If you are a 1st time player but then buy the full player cards in line for current or historic teams. On the sheets you can sort teams by nation or MLB team, for example the Pirates No. 1 and No. 2 hitters in the game are Dominicans Starling Marte and Greg Polanco who just scored a combined 7 runs to beat the Cardinals in our first MLB games. Prior to that, they led the Dominican Republic to a 21-9 record to win the regular season and playoff over 2nd place Venezuela. The set up looks like the next photo, and you can order here if you want to purchase nice PDF player cards and games.We created the dice version and out chart so you could 1) use it as a free trial, 2) use all the other great teams and charts here even if you have trouble getting Fast Action Cards, and 3) to use as I do as a travel version without having to pack the whole game on trips.

To print your favorite teams; 1, click on this google sheet of projected 2019 cards; 2, define the team's batters and starters like in the next photo; then 

 3, hit print but choose to only print those cells you have selected so you get one nice sheet for all of the team's batters (which are in black) then pitchers (which are in red).

Latest: AJ Pollock reached three of four times in his Dodgers debut and made a clutch diving catch to end the 6th and keep Clayton Kershaw in a 2-2 tie en route to a 3-2 win. Bellinger made a clutch diving catch in centerfield the batter before, and in the 8th Turner made a diving catch at third base to end what had been a bases load, no outs rally. Bellinger then led off the bottom of the eighth with a game winning homer, and Jensen got the save in the top of the 9th to finally best the Diamondbacks, whose strong pitching put them in first after two series. Dodgers won the 2nd game 1-0.

Team	Division	W	L	GB	Notes
Pirates	NL Central	11	7	0
Cubs	NL Central	8	4	0
Brewers	NL Central	6	6	2
Reds	NL Central	5	7	3
Cardinals	NL Central	4	8	4
Braves	NL East	7	5	0
Mets	NL East	7	5	0
Nationals	NL East	7	5	0
Phillies	NL East	6	6	1
Marlins	NL East	3	9	4
Diamondbacks	NL West	11	7	0
Padres	NL West	8	4	0
Dodgers	NL West	9	9	2
Giants	NL West	5	7	3
Rockies	NL West	3	9	5

After the first 12 games for each team Sonny Gray was traded to the Reds to give them a very nice starting rotation as covered here. The biggest signings since then (Jan 22) were AJ Pollock going to the Dodgers (.764 OPS and excellent CD4 in the outfield) and Nick Markakis  who projects only a few points behind with a .757 OPS and one of the few fielders better than Pollock with a rare Clutch Defense 5  in RF to make the Braves even stronger. The Angels tried to help their terrible pen with Cody Allen, but we only project him as a PB2-7 (3.92 ERA as a reliever decent but not the old Cody Allen). Also, the Rangers signed Asdrubal Cabrera with a decent .756 projected OPS but no speed and below average fielding. All Statis-Pro cards are sorted by team here.

Only two great Statis-Pro pitching cards remain among free agents with ace reliever Craig Kimbrel (projected park neutral 2.72 ERA for PB2-9) and starter Dallas Keuchel (3.76 ERA for PB2-7). Beyond the two superstars of Bryce Harper (.923 projected park neutral OPS trails only Trout) and Manny Machado (.878 and elite clutch defense 3b-5 clutch defense) there are solid sluggers Mike Moutstakas .789 and cf-4, Evan Gattis .753 and Marwin Gonzalez .748. Two light-hitting but awesome middle infielders up the middle are Jose Iglesias (weak .677 but SS-4) and Josh Harrison (.689 but 2b-4).

In 2018, we played the imbalanced AL and the Red Sox, Yankees, Astros and Indians dominated to all finish between 36-24 and 38-32. However, the NL is incredibly balanced so every new acquisition gives another team a chance to emerge.

In order to list out all teams as they look with their rosters today, we set up 30 interleague 2-game series and will list match-ups and result of our two sample games in each match-up below.

All-Conference Teams Announced for Entire US at Mid-Season

From the Big East to the Mountain West (top photo), see all 32 All-Conference teams, players of the year, offensive and defensive players of the year and freshman of the year through half the season.

Duke's Zion' #1 Ranked Defender, #2 Offense After Howard's 53-pt Game

For those of you not on the sports email list, please like @valueaddsports and send an email to pudnerjohn@gmail.com with the subject field "add to sports email list." Here is te email sent the morning of Jan 12, 2019

Duke's Zion; #1 Ranked Defender, #2 Offense after Howard's 53-pt game

Inbox

x

John Pudner, Value Add Sports via bluehornet.com	11:35 AM (42 minutes ago)
to me

Duke's Zion Williamson ranks as the top defender of 4,088 college basketball players, and just missed being the only player to ever ranked as both the best offensive and defensive player in the country at the same time when Markus Howard's Big East record 53-point performance nudged him out for the top spot in the new Value Add Basketball rankings..
The rankings for all 4,088 players can be sorted by conference or team at www.valueaddbasketball.com, or on this google sheet for those who want to export the data, and you are free to reuse as long as your reference www.valueaddbasketball.com. To better able you to give credit to more players on your team or conference, we also noted any player who ranks as one of the top 500 defensive or offensive players in the notes column. We are working on a temporary glitch in the database that is causing each player to appear twice, so keep in mind if a players ranking is listed twice just cut the ratings in half (e.g. if ranking is 999 and 1000, he is really the 500th ranked player). A 9999 appears by any player who is not ranked.
The thing that sets the Value Add Basketball rankings apart from others is the calculation of how well players guard opponents as part of the ranking, which we outline using the pretty bad defense in the Marquette - Creighton game as a sample game. Please see the CBS Sports 247 story including the interview with Markus Howard by clicking on the image below, and this story also provides a sample table of how everything a player does in a game to help or hurt his team - including many mistakes such as the foul, turnovers and missed shots by Howard that were more than offset by his 44 positive plays during his 43 minutes on the court. For those of you who confuse Markus and me, it is true we are/were both Marquette journalism students, but I was the better shot blocker during my runs to the Marquette intramural Final Four and two more recent titles (Wetumpka YMCA, Montgomery YMCA) and he is the one with the top four scoring games - 53, 52, 45, 45 - in 101 years of actual Marquette basketball. After watching this interview and listening to my kids ridicule my jokes, I believe he is also a lot more funny than I am. The full disclosure that I am a Marquette fan is provided also with a note that the rankings for all seasons from 2002 to current are all based on the formulas I developed that were covered by Sports Illustrated, ESPN, Fox Sports and others, so my personal opinions do not impact any player's ranking whether he be at Marquette or my hometown Auburn or one of the other 351 Division 1 schools. See also the @valueaddsports Facebook or www.pudnersports.com blog for more information on my basketball and baseball projections. - John Pudner, 404.606.3163

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Calculating defensive rating for guarding opponents

In 2011, this post broke down the defensive calculations for the Value Add Basketball rankings for all college players from 2002 to the present. While the rankings received national praise, this continues to be the most underappreciated aspect of the rankings. We will periodically list the four defensive considerations in the Notes field to show each qualifying players grade from 0 to 10 in each:

DefR = Defensive Rebounding

Blk = Blocked Shots

Stl = Steals

Guard = The most important defensive factor is the ability to guard opponents to deny them the ball, force them into bad shots, and create turnovers, and a small consideration for avoiding fouling, all weighted by the level of offenses faced and the minutes on the floor on defense.

For example, Zion Williamson had notes field on January 19, 2019 that read DefR 9^ Blk 10^ Stl 10^ Guard 7 for his rating of 0 to 10 in each of the four categories. The math that went into calculating that he was the top defender in the country and taking away 3.52 points per game from an opponent compared to how many they would score against a replacement defender. However, the four ratings on the 1 to 10 scale at least gives an idea of which aspects of defense are strong or weak.

While other systems rank the first three, they ignore the fact that these three together are less important than guarding your opponent and a player who scores a lot of points but allows opposing players to cut to the rim in 100-90 losses is not nearly as valuable as a player who scores even half as many points and helps his team pull out 50-40 wins.

The following is a breakdown of how these factors play out in a given game, in this case Marquette's defensive effort at Creighton in 2019, which was not good overall but was overcome by Markus Howard setting the Big East record with 53 points that night.

Running total	Figure	Explanation
4.85	4.85	More defensive rebounds than one-third of missed shot, worth one point each (MU grabbed 29 of 35 CU misses, 4.85 more than typical 69%)
1.66	2.48	more blocks than typical based on number of 2-point shots taken worth 0.67 points each (CU 32 two-point shots typically result in 3.52 blocks, but MU blocked 6)
-3.68	-3.68	more steals than expected based on trips down the court worth one point each (MU 80 defensive possessions typical 5.68 steals, but only had 2 steals)
2.83		Total Points taken away (or added if a negative) based on blocks, steals and rebounds
104.00		actual points scored by opponent
106.83		anticipated points allowed if if blocks, steals and defensive rebounds average (total of the previous 2 numbers to reverse engineer)
82.16	80	how many points would have been scored if 1.027 per possessions in the game
-24.67		how good was the guarding defense based on points less than expected not counting blocks, steals and rebounds
-0.11	225	how good or bad (if negative) the guarding defense was after using the number of minutes played in the game (200 if ends in regulation, add 25 for each overtime)
-4.72	43	based on the players minutes played, how many points did the player take away or add with good or bad defense

That was the defensive side to this post on the Marquette CBS 247 page. Beyond those defensive
considerations, the following are the only possible plays in a game that Markus Howard did
NOT have during the game and how valuable each of those plays is.

Only things Markus Howard did NOT do in game	Value
Made 2-point show and drew foul (unassisted)	1.67
Made 2-point show and drew foul (assisted)	1.33
Steal	1
Draw 3-shot foul	1
Offensive Rebound	0.67
Draw 1-and-1 foul shots	0.11
Foul drawn but no free throws	0.1
Missed deadball FT, no rebound chance	-0.67
Miss front end of 1-and-1	-0.74

It appears the one thing a player can do that hurts their team the most in all of basketball is missing the front end of a 1-and-1, since an average free throw shooter scores 1.11 points per one-on-one opportunity, so in the just under 3 out of 9 times the front end is missed it means the player secured 0.00 or the average 1.11 points. However, because the team does have a one-third chance of an offensive rebound, there is a chance the get the miss and score so it counts as a -0.74. We do not have a way to break down the slightly lower chance of an offensive rebound on a free throw miss verses and attempted field goal.

Statis-Pro Setup of Game with Greinke vs. Springer Sample Result

Most current season updates here.

Here is how I set up the Statis-Pro baseball game, showing a game I just played between the Houston Astros and Arizona Diamondbacks that is in the game log. I actually show the components of both the traditional Fast Action Card version which I use for most games, but also the components to play the free dice version I use when I travel - which you can use if you do not have a fast action deck.

Statis-Pro Baseball Options for Play

1.   Top: EITHER Statis-Pro Player cards OR Statis-Pro sheets with player on each row (note the Astros batters are top left, and we keep a business card under the batter - George Springer - and another under pitcher for the Diamondbacks in the bottom right – in this case Zack Greinke)

2.   Bottom Right: EITHER Fast Action Cards (FAC) OR 5 Dice. We stopped for this photo after a “9” by the PB on the red FAC card (which in the dice version would have been the same as rolling the 9 as shown) meant Greinke could not keep the action in his PB2-8 range so the next card’s RN would refer to Springer’s sheet, and with the RN coming up a “26” on that card (which would have been the same as rolling a green “2” and white “6” on the 8-sided dice for “26” if we were playing the dice version) resulted in a home run (Springer’s highest double number in the row is “25”, he has no triples, and his highest home run is “32” so 26 falls in the homer range.

3.   Bottom Left: IF Fast Action Cards THEN Out Charts A – C, BUT IF dice THEN Printed Out Charts for 1-20. In this case if the result had been an “Out” instead of a home run the FAC shows the play was a “G3” (ground out to first) which would have also resulted in the dice version if the 20-sided die read “4” as shown by that chart.

4.   Right: EITHER scoresheet OR just a sheet of paper to record line-ups and results