Thursday, November 19, 2020

Statis-Pro Ballpark Factors - and Explanations

I was asked to explain the ballpark factors used in Statis-Pro and how they are calculated. If a DEEP comes up on the batters card (between the HR, or Home Run, and the K, or strikeout) and you did not pick a ballpark, then just go to the next random number from your fast action card deck or dice, and if the number is 11-48, but if it is a 51-88 then it is a deep fly and all runners advance. If you chose a park before the game, then you use that ballpark. A "63" for example would only go out in great hitters parks like Boston or Cincinnati on the chart below, but would normally be caught. 

This is all you need to play the game in ballparks.

ParkDuring Game There
NeutralHR if 11-48, SacFly if 51-88
ARIHR if 11-56, SacFly if 57-88
ATLHR if 11-68, SacFly if 71-88
BaltHR if 11-62, SacFly if 63-88
Bost HR if 11-76, SacFly if 77-88
CHCHR if 11-55, SacFly if 56-88
CINHR if 11-82, SacFly if 83-88
Cle HR if 11-66, SacFly if 67-88
ColHR if 11-86, SacFly if 87-88
CWSHR if 11-35, SacFly if 36-88
DetHR if 11-58, SacFly if 61-88
HouHR if 11-62, SacFly if 63-88
KCHR if 11-72, SacFly if 73-88
LAAHR if 11-48, SacFly if 51-88
LADHR if 11-17, SacFly if 18-88
MiaHR if 11-26, SacFly if 27-88
MILHR if 11-48, SacFly if 51-88
MinHR if 11-48, SacFly if 51-88
NYMHR if 11-12, SacFly if 13-88
NYYHR if 11-42, SacFly if 43-88
OakHR if 11-13, SacFly if 14-88
PhilHR if 11-63, SacFly if 64-88
PITHR if 11-33, SacFly if 34-88
SDHR if 11-34, SacFly if 35-88
Sea HR if 11-22, SacFly if 23-88
SFHR if 11-23, SacFly if 24-88
STLHR if 11-26, SacFly if 27-88
TBHR if 11-26, SacFly if 27-88
TexHR if 11-86, SacFly if 87-88
TorHR if 11-48, SacFly if 51-88
WashHR if 11-83, SacFly if 84-88

Only those of you who understand how these calculations were made need to continue reading beyond the table above used to play the game.

Our ballpark adjustments to adjust the OPS that would result from the batter's card over time if he played on a neutral field. To do this, we start by calculating the OPS that would result from the average batters card having the action half of the time, and the average pitcher half of the time and put it in the old runs produced formula.

((H + BB) * (1B + (2*2B) + (3*3B) + (4*HR))) / (AB + BB)

We then calculate the appropriate ballpark adjustment above based on it taking away HRs (11-47 or lower) or adding HRs (11-51 or higher) and come up with the Home Runs that need to be added or taken away to recreate action on that field. A park might create more singles but fewer homers in real life, but we are just adjusting to make the OPS accurate if a player moves from the park in which he amassed half his stats to another park.

The numbers on the table above are accurate.

The other adjustment you do not see is to the batters' cards when they are created. If a player benefitted from a park that gives him lots of extra home runs, then two homers that would have been on his card are changed to DEEP. So a Texas Rangers player (11-86 HR) who calculated to a HR: 32-36 would in fact have a card that read HR: 34-36. However, a New York Mets player with the exact same stats that would have justified the 32-36 HR range gets it, but his DEEP range is 37-38. The Mets player with the same stats as the Rangers player will hit better on a neutral field while the Ranger will hit worse.

In between the two extremes, a player in a good but not great hitters park - a range something like 11-63 HR, will just have one DEEP range that replaced his top HR number, a player in a neutral field will have two DEEP numbers that take what would be his top HR number and what would be his first K number for the DEEP range, and a player in a good but not great pitcher's park will get his full HR range but will add one DEEP number for a possible HR.

Pitchers' card adjustment.

Obviously if you are going to give every Mets batter a chance at two extra homers for playing in such a tough park, you also need to adjust the pitchers in the other direction since they are helped by the park. The basic adjustment here is that for every 0.050 you are adjusting a batters OPS up or down, the ERA for the pitchers on the same team would be adjusted 0.75 - but just remember only have the pitchers games are in their home park so it is really an adjustment of 0.375 from their projected ERA. That can push a pitcher to a PB rating that is one better or one worse depending on the exact PB. He could still have a PB: 2-9 the best if his projected ERA is at last 0.38 better than the cut off for a PB:2-9 card. 

Recall that in order from best to worst, the pitcher's possible PB ratings are 2-9, 2-8, 2-7, 4-7, 2-6, 2-5 and the worst is 2-4.

We hope adding the ballpark factors if fun for those of you who use basic Statis-Pro cards for games. The Advanced Cards with the separate columns for batting against LEFT- and RIGHT-HANDED pitchers are even more precise.

No comments:

Post a Comment