Tuesday, July 16, 2019

Statis-Pro Relives the Past ... and Maybe Predicts the Future

Many enjoy playing the 1927 Yankees against the 1976 Reds or entire replays of past seasons for their favorite historic teams using Statis-Pro cards available here. My best friend and I have also enjoyed playing with cards for the current rosters since the 1980s - rotating leagues to quickly understand each team's strengths and weaknesses in 30 minute games. (get free starter game here)

The only problem with playing the "present" season is that critics can jump on the game looking "unrealistic" whenever a team in a short Statis-Pro season has a much different record than their actual squad. Last year I had the AL and the Red Sox, Yankees, Astros and Indians ran away with the league - all finishing within a game of 38-22, but while that all seemed realistic, the Chicago White Sox were annoyingly decent in Statis-Pro while terrible in real MLB games.

However, as I took the NL this year I knew there was much more balance, and the biggest discrepancy between my current season based on projected Statis-Pro cards and the actual MLB season a few weeks ago was that the Colorado Rockies and San Francisco Giants seemed to be flipped.

In Statis-Pro the Giants were battling for first in the NL West while the Rockies were buried in last, while the actual standings showed the Giants at 32-42 and the Rockies were 40-34.
I do play with park neutral stats, so the Rockies line-up of All-Stars in the actual MLB only looked like a decent offense in Statis-Pro, but by the same token their pitching looked pretty good once adjusted for Coors Field.

Monday night the Giants took a series 4-2 over the Rockies – to maintain a big lead over the Rockies in our Statis-Pro standings:

DodgersNL West23130
GiantsNL West2418-2
DiamondbacksNL West1917-4
PadresNL West1917-4
RockiesNL West1725-9
CubsNL Central27210
BrewersNL Central2220-2
RedsNL Central2022-4
CardinalsNL Central2226-5
PiratesNL Central1620-5
BravesNL East22140
NationalsNL East2115-1
MetsNL East1917-3
PhilliesNL East1917-3
MarlinsNL East1224-10

That meant the Giants actually caught the Rockies at 46-49. That made me curious – since my Statis-Pro stats reflected a 42-game record how had each team done in their last 42 games?

It turns out with the Giants third straight win over the Rockies in the real MLB, the Giants are now 25-17 in their last 42 while the Rockies are 20-22. So the Statis-Pro Rockies are just three games worse than the real Rockies, and the Statis-Pro Giants are just one game better than the real Giants.

This is not the first time that the Statis-Pro cards seemed to show a team was much better or worse than their actual record to date - only to turn out to have predicted the future as the real team caught up.

I also actual watched their game Tuesday night, watching Giants closer Will Smith blow a 3-run lead in the 9th only to have the Giants respond with 4 runs to win.

This was an incredible match for real action in the following two updates I posted on my Monday night Statis-Pro double header in which Smith gave up 4 runs in the 9th to offset 3 Giants runs in the 9th.

The following are my actual updates on the final two games I played – so I entered these updates after midnight Monday night – less than 24 hours before an almost exact 9th inning explosion for both teams occurred (this link goes to my update on all games):

Col          Gray      8              SF           Bumgarner                         7              no                           Only a Rockies game - Belt's 3-run HR in top of 9th off Col closer Oberg made it 7-4, then Colorado tagged Giants closer Smith for 4 runs to win. Desmond's new HR24-31 card yielded 31 HR.

SF           Blach     9              Col          Senzatek                             8              sweep                  Col scored 4 in bottom of 9th again, but fell one short and gave up sweep due to 9-4 after 8 innings. Both teams scored 16 runs in the two game series.

Keep in mind my records are based on each game played counting as three games – with the winning team getting credit for a 2 games to 1 win UNLESS they lead by 5 or more after 8 innings without using their closer and hold the lead in the ninth (this works out well mathematically because teams sweep a 3-game series about as often as they win by 5 runs – 14 percent of the time.
While many people enjoy the great all-time series and even play whole 162-game seasons with Statis-Pro, and I love to do this in the offseason – playing off the current season with our projected cards may occasionally even predict the future J.

Though obviously any shorter season like I play can yield different results than a team sustaining their record over a true test in a 162-game season.

In addition to my free links to the game and all current player cards above, I just updated on the most improved 75 players here.

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