Sunday, July 7, 2019

All-Star Break: Yankees & Dodgers Tie for Best Projection Based on Statis-Pro MLB Cards

With 99,321 visits to, it appears we will hit 100,000 by the first pitch of the All-Star game Tuesday. The two most popular clicks are for the instructions for how to play Statis-Pro baseball, and all current and likely 2019 Major League players and their Statis-Pro projected cards. Our Power Ratings indicate the Yankees and Dodgers are the strongest two teams going into the second half of the season, so to play them against each other just click on the two images below. You could start a game with Aaron Judge (top line, Yankees, black type indicates position players) batting against Clayton Kershaw on the Dodgers team below (starting pitchers in blue, relievers in red).

A roll of two six sided dice refers to the "Control" figure by Kershaw, a 2-8 meaning he keeps it on his card on those numbers, so a 9-12 roll puts in on Judge's card. You then need two 8-sided dice for an 11-88 roll to see what happens on that card. For Judge up to 13 (see 1b column below) is a single, up to 17 a double, 18 a triple, up to 27 a home run, up to 54 a strikeout, yo 71 for a walk, 72 is a hit by pitch and up to 88 an out.

You can literally play a Dodgers-Yankees game with those dice and the teams below, but you can also look at these instructions to add fielding, speed and any other aspects of the game. We track our ongoing NL season here, where the Dodgers have the best record at 23-13. My friend is playing the AL this year and said his biggest problem is figuring out how to fit stars into the line-up. In my All-Star game, the AL defeated the NL 5-1 with Guerrero Jr. going 2 for 2 with a homer.

The projections were all park neutral before the season started. (July 3 we updated all rosters with projections for any missing players, so the rosters are complete with suggested lineups and pitching rotations).

Standings at All-Star Break

Here is the blog tracking the standings in my game, and the standings follow:

NL Central W L GB
Cubs 22 14 0
Brewers 19 17 -3
Cardinals 16 20 -6
Pirates 16 20 -6
Reds 16 20 -6
NL East W L GB
Braves 22 14 0
Nationals 21 15 -1
Mets 19 17 -3
Phillies 19 17 -3
Marlins 12 24 -10
NL West W L GB
Dodgers 23 13 0
Giants 20 16 -3
Diamondbacks 19 17 -4
Padres 19 17 -4
Rockies 15 21 -8

These were the final two-game series for each team leading into the All-Star break with the new player cards and a few new rules in use, with notes on the most recent games.

SD beats SF 2-1 (paddock vs. Lamet) The 1st "average" pitcherwith a PB4-7, Suerez did his part with only 1 run allowed through 5 IP , but in the7th Machado GW -1b gave Padres 2-1; overachieving Giants fell from 3-way tie for 1st.

SD beats SF 6-3 (Suerez vs. Samardzija) Kinsler's Grandslam after Samardzija walked the 1st three of the 4th inning rallied the Padred from a 3-1 deficit en route to a 6-3 win to pull within 2 games of 1st in the NL West.

St. Louis 12, Kansas City 0 (Reyes vs. Junis) – (sweep credit) Cards broke out of an ice cold start when Molina's 3-run HR and DeJong's grandslam keyed 5-run 1st and 2nd innings. The rotation struggles led to 11-19 start, but Reyes' shutout.
St. Louis 6, Kansas City 4 (Martinez vs. Kennedy) - With 4-4 tie, Ozuna walked to start 9th and Cards only speedster Robinson pinch ran, stole 2nd, went to third on wild pitch, and just beat throw home on grounder to short for winning run. Kennedy was the first PB2-4 to ever start a current game for me.

Diamondbacks vs. Nationals
Washington 9, Arizona 2 (Strasburg vs. Greinke) – (sweep credit) After outdueling Astros Verlander & Phillies Nola, Greinke's 2-1 lead disappeared in a 4th inning in which 2b Flores errored, and misplayed easy CD grounder 2-run, then left after rain delay

Washington 4, Arizona 3 (Corbin vs. Godley) - Nats clean-up hitter Rendon hit 2 homers, and Corbin made it into the 7th before getting help from the great pen.
5 in 10 innings (Ryu vs. Wood) - Reds Erwin pinch ran in 8th, stole and scored tying run, then threw out Pollock trying to score from 2nd to force extra innings. However, Muncy's 10th inn HR of Lorenzen gave LA 9th straight.

LA Dodgers 12, Cincinnati 7 (Buehler vs. Castillo) - Dodgers pounded out 9 runs in 1st and led 12-0 when Buehler tired after 5 LA Dodgers 6, Cincinnati scoreless innings. However, Reds pounded out 7 off what was left of Dodgers bullpen after extra inning affair.

Colorado 5, Miami 0 (Marquez vs. Gallen) = Ace Marquez & Rockies pitchers are good away Coors Field. CG shut out, Rockies 12 hits, Marlins 2. No sweep because up 3-0 after 8, then Story and Arenado went back to back.

Colorado 3, Miami 1 (Senzatela vs. Yamamoto) -Blackmon and Arenado homers and 5 Rockies pitchers blanked Marlins for another 8 1/3 until closer Oberg gave up solo to Anderson in 9th.  C Alfaro ejected for arguing strike zone.

Atlanta 7, Philadelphia 4 (Keuchel vs. Arrieto) - 3 unearned runs of Arrietta after 1b Hoskins dropped the 3rd out, then Donaldson hit 3-run HR. Phillies avoided sweep with 4-run 8th w/ 4 staight hits (Seguara, McCutchen, Harper, Realmuto.

Philadelphia 8, Atlanta 3 (Pivetta vs. Foltynewicz) - Acuna went 7 of 10 with 4 steals in series and scored twice to avoid sweep. Phils 2 HRs (Franco, Williams) 2 triples (Hernandez), 2 doubles (Williams, Segura) 6 singles.

Chicago Cubs 3, NY Mets 2 (Quantina vs. Syndergaard) - Familia blew a 2-1 lead in the 8th, allowing homers to Rizzo and Schwarber. Kimbrel locked up a 4-out save (pitchers can finish and inning OR face up to 4 batters in my league rules.

NY Mets 7, Chicago 0 (Lugo vs. Hamels) - sweep credit - Alonso's 3-run homer capped the scoring for the sweep, and unlike the current season the Mets' Diaz is virtually untouchable in the game and pitched the 9th for the combined shutout.

Milwaukee 4, Pittsburgh 0 (Nelson vs. Taillon) - Three of the 1st 8 Brewers homered for an early 4-0 lead, and Nelson went 6 2/3 before turning it over to the Brewers great pen for the combined shutout.

Milwaukee 4, Pittsburgh 3 (Peralta vs. Musgrove) - Brewers 9 relievers 0 runs in series, but it took a homer by backup shortstop Dubon after a double switch to break a 7th inning tie. Grandal 2-run 3b, Cain RBI 2b, but error on Moustakas.

All-Star Break - all teams at 36 game record (12 actual games played - shooting for 23
For those who already play the game, the changes we made once every team had played 10 games, and some basic rules:

Rule Adjustments

PB: 2-4 and PB: 2-7 pitcher cards. For the first time in current play in my decades of playing, we have added the PB: 4-7 and PB: 2-4 cards - something we've already used playing the great all-time teams provided via the Statis-Pro Advanced Facebook page. I go through an pretty exhaustive breakdown of how I distribute the park neutral PB ratings here.

Relievers pitch 1 of 2 games in series - finish inning or can go to 4 batters total faced. To keep relievers to a reasonable number of innings, it is easiest to let each pitcher start and finish an inning, then move to the next reliever. If the pitcher has pitched to fewer than 4 batters when an inning ends, he can continue to pitch until he has pitched to 4 batters total. Due to a shortage of pitchers, we experimented with international rules the first 10 games of the season -starting players on 1st and 2nd base each extra inning and letting the 9th inning pitcher stay in the game to play it out. It was a fun twist, but now that each team has plenty of pitchers on the google sheet of players and the fact that teams will get down to PB2-4 pitchers to make runs more likely as it goes deeper in extra innings we are now playing normal MLB rules for each game.

11 = K if Righty vs Righty or Lefty vs. Left. 12 - F2 only if Lefty vs. Lefty. 88 = Single if Lefty vs. Righty. In addition to his great cards, we noted that the Advanced Statis-Pro facebook provider also changed the left-right match-ups so that you only change the Random numbers of 11 or 12 to outs in a lefty vs lefty match-up, and only change one number in the other combinations (righty vs. righty is changed to strikeout only on an 11, while the advantage of left vs. right no matter which the batter is and which the pitcher is now is only changed on a random number of 88 - turning from an out to a single with runner advancing two bases.

Because the free player sheets we provide only tell you if something is a single or double and not which field the ball is hit to like the actual player cards provided on the Facebook page - the direction of the hit is determined by the last digit of the random number on the card:

Who fields each hit. 11 = if the batter is an OBR A or B then check the next number for the CD to determine which of the 9 fielders played the single - this is the only chance for an infield singled but it could go to the outfielder. Otherwise:

The batter pulls the single or double if the last digit of the random number is a 1, 2 or 3 (11, 12, 13, 21, 22, 23, 31, 32, 33, etc.

All batters hit the ball to centerfield if the last digit is a 4, 5 or 6 (14, 15, 16, 24, 25, 26, etc.).

The batter his the ball to the opposite field if the final digit is a 7 or 8 (17, 18, 27, 28, etc.)

When a clutch batting (BD) is drawn with someone on the base and a projected card that does not have BD ranges then we use the batters card and make the following conversions:

1B - becomes base clearing double
2B - becomes home run
3B - stays triple
HR - stays home run
K - stays strike out
W or HPB - change to foul and draw RN again for BD until you get another result
Out - deep drive caught but all runners move up a base.

League Rules on Sweeps. Each game still counts as a three-game series with the winner normally getting credit for 2 wins and the loser 1 win. The exception is if one team has a 5-run lead at the end of the 8th inning without using their closer through eight and they need to just hold the lead in the 9th.

Season summaries are tracked in this google doc. 

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