## Wednesday, April 4, 2018

### Value Add Projects for All 2019 Players - Final Four of Auburn, Duke, Villanova, UNC

This link to projected Value Add Rankings for close to 5,000 players provides you with a column A to make notes on any player that should be removed, changed to another team, or added in one of the "Roster Spot Open" spots for teams with fewer than 13 players in the system.

Tracking which team a given player is on is a monumental task (an Atlanta sports host tried to convince a caller that I really do work 60+ hour work weeks and just do this for fun), and I WELCOME notes correcting my mistakes - or even subjective notes on players that should be rated higher by played injures, or do things that do not show up in the stats like on-ball defense or setting picks. Just type anything you want into Column A by something you believe or know is off on a given line.

Here is a rundown of how we project the next season's Value Add rating of different sets of players.

### Group 1: Freshmen. The rankings for these players is determined matching where 247Sports ranks a freshman and how freshman who ranked that high in past rankings performed.

Group 2: Returning Sophomores, Juniors and Seniors. Last year I studied the 61,000+ Value Add rankings from the 2001-02 to 2016-17 who stayed at the same school four years, and calculated the following average improvement for five groups based on how valuable they were their freshman season:

Exactly 0.000.000.821.131.36
up to 1.000.591.181.571.90
up to 2.001.312.242.783.31
up to 3.002.222.843.483.94
3.01 or higher3.994.054.555.23
4 year players, same school0.981.662.092.48

The average improvement works out to the following:
• A freshman with a rating of 1.01 or higher projects to improve by 1.00 his sophomore year, while others project to improve by 0.7.
• A sophomore with a rating of 1.01 or higher projects to improve 0.8 his junior year, while others improve 0.4.
• A junior with a rating of 1.01 or higher projects to improve 06 his senior year, while others improve 0.3.
Further, in the system I check players against their projected NBA status and where they were originally ranked in high school - this has not been done to the 2019 projections yet, as it takes a while, but adjustments may be made based on the following:
• A player ranked as one of the top 50 or so NBA prospects in their place have a minimum Value Add ranking based on exactly where they rank that will take the place of a lower projected Value Add using the system above.
• A player who was highly rated as a recruit who has a bad year (often the result of injury or a lack of playing time) gets at least a rating equal to one point below the average number of stars he received as a recruit (e.g. a 5-star recruit who has a bad first year, still gets at least a 4.0 Value Add based on a history of such players improvement much more dramatically than others).
Group 3: JUCO Transfers. While 247 is my basis for freshmen, Brad Winton's JUCORecruiting.com list between 2011 to 2015 gave me averages of how his ranked JUCOs typically perform when they move to a four-year school. In short, as we saw with Jae Crowder and others, Junior College players make their big improvements before stepping on the court of a 4-year college, usually as a junior. They can instantly improve a team because their game is so much more developed than freshman recruits. As soon as Delon Wright and Gary Payton stepped on the court they made Utah and Oregon State, respectively, 10 points better than a replacement player.

Group 4: NBA Prospects. This pre-March Madness post gave each college player's chance for success in the NBA, with 10.0 being the highest. The following are three considerations for NBA prospects.

a. If a prospect Signs with an Agent or Makes clear they are leaving for the pros, then they are not listed with a 2019 Projection.

b. If a prospect is considering going to the NBA or even puts their name in the draft but does not sign with an agent then they are still listed with a slash after the team name indicating they could leave for the NBA.

c. The NBA rating is also used to calculate a minimum Value Add projection for the next season that is higher than the projection based on their previous season above. This might be needed because a player simply underperformed in the previous season, but it is also often the case that he played hurt or was on a bench at a program like Duke or Kentucky that had other NBA prospects in front of him, so that when a starting spot clears for them the next season they will likely be much higher. In that case, we calculate what their Value Add projection would be if they had played up to their potential. For example, Maryland's Bruno Fernando had a strong freshman year with a 4.76 Value Add so would have projected to improve a bit, but his NBA rating would indicate his Value Add should be almost twice as high as 9.00+, and we take 70% of that NBA projection to raise him to 6.02 for next season if he is still at Maryland. If you see "Proj raised due to NBA potential" in the notes field, it means the player's projection was raised due to NBA potential beyond what his previous season would actually project. Here is the list of all NBA prospects who had their Value Add Projection raised for 2019 beyond what they actually produced the previous year.

Bruno Fernando #236-foot-10SoMaryland6.202
Hamidou Diallo #36-foot-5FrKentucky/could go NBA5.635
Jericho Sims #206-foot-9SoTexas5.607
Bruce Brown #116-foot-5SoMiami FL/could go NBA5.39
Marques Bolden #206-foot-11JrDuke5.236
Jaylen Hands #46-foot-3FrUCLA/could go NBA5.194
Jarred Vanderbilt #26-foot-9FrKentucky/could go NBA5.173
John Petty #236-foot-5FrAlabama/could go NBA4.956
Markis McDuffie #326-foot-8SrWichita St.4.886
Kavell Bigby-Williams 356-foot-11SrOregon4.606
Donovan Mitchell #26-foot-8JrAvailable4.354
Bennie Boatwright #256-foot-10SrUSC4.2
Jeremy Hemsley #426-foot-3SrSan Diego St.4.158
Chase Jeter 26-foot-10JrArizona4.13
Yankuba Sima #356-foot-11SrOklahoma St.4.067
Corey Sanders #36-foot-2SrRutgers4.06
Tacko Fall #247-foot-6SrUCF4.053
Shaqquan Aaron #06-foot-7SrUSC4.046
Haanif Cheatham #256-foot-5SrFlorida Gulf Coast3.99
Carlton Bragg 156-foot-10JrNew Mexico3.983
Jeremy Miller #116-foot-10SrNortheastern3.885
Jalen Poyser 246-foot-4SoSt. Bonaventure3.878
Brandon Randolph #56-foot-6SoArizona3.85
Kassoum Yakwe #146-foot-7SrSt. John's3.85
Jeremiah Tilmon #236-foot-10SoMissouri3.822
MJ Walker #236-foot-6SoFlorida St.3.808
DJ Harvey #36-foot-6SoNotre Dame3.801
Chris Smith #56-foot-9SoUCLA3.801
Keith Williams #26-foot-5SoCincinnati3.794
Daejon Davis #16-foot-3SoStanford3.78
Paul Scruggs #16-foot-3SoXavier3.78
Devontae Shuler #06-foot-2SoMississippi3.766
Kostas Antetokounmpo #136-foot-10FrDayton/could go NBA3.766
Emmanuel Akot #246-foot-7SoArizona3.766
Chaundee Brown #236-foot-5SoWake Forest3.759
Victor Bailey #106-foot-4SoOregon3.752
Marcus Carr #56-foot-1SoAvailable3.745
Makai Ashton-Langford #16-foot-3SoProvidence3.745
Alex O'Connell #156-foot-6SoDuke3.71
Jacob Larsen #146-foot-11SoGonzaga3.703
Abu Kigab #246-foot-6SoOregon3.696
Charles O'Bannon #136-foot-6SoUSC3.696
Isaiah Washington #116-foot-1SoMinnesota3.689
Jermaine Samuels #236-foot-6SoVillanova3.682
Malik Williams #56-foot-11SoLouisville3.675

Group 5: Placeholders to Fill Rosters. The one other item I added this year is a line for the available spots on each team's roster. If a team has nine players in the www.valueaddbasketball.com database, then they have four lines on which the "player name" is "Roster Spot Open." This year I do assign a value based on what the team can typically expect. A solid team like Marquette will average about 1.30 in Value Add filling their roster, while Kentucky averages 2.51 and can be much higher if they are waiting to decide which 5-star to take.

If you want the much longer explanation of each group presented last June, click here and link to the explanations of these and others.

The link indicates that if every team keep any more potential pro players from leaving, then Villanova projects as the best team at 69.56, Kentucky is second at 63.50, and a Final Four would round out with Duke at 56.38 and Auburn at 53.75. However, that would entail Villanova keeping the dominant trio from the National title game in Mikal Bridges (as likely lottery pick), National Player of the Year Jalen Brunson, and Tournament MVP Donte DiVincenzo. Kentucky has six current potential players who could go pro to cut them down to seven returning.

If all these players left for the pros, and every other team also lost all potential pro prospects, then Auburn would project as the No. 1 team at 50.17 (they only have one player who might leave), and Duke would be just behind them at 49.97 (only two players and not the keys to the team), with Villanova still holding onto third place even without that trio, but North Carolina replacing Kentucky to round out a projected Final Four.

Here is the whole list, but I caution that the offseason projections really do not work well on the teams outside the Top 100.

ROUGH ProjectionsConfIf no more NBA departuresRankPoss NBARating if everyone leaves for NBAEveryone leaves for NBA
VillanovaBE69.561349.913
KentuckySEC63.52645.696
DukeACC56.383249.972
AuburnSEC53.754150.171
North CarolinaACC48.77548.774
KansasB1248.046238.9514
OregonP1246.62846.625
VirginiaACC45.659142.19
SyracuseACC45.510234.5333
Mississippi St.SEC45.4211139.9910
GonzagaWCC4512237.1418
Miami FLACC44.7513336.2122
MarylandB1044.2214138.6215
LSUSEC44.151544.157
North Carolina St.ACC42.671642.678
Ohio St.B1041.9517133.8541
Virginia TechACC41.5118139.5411
Michigan St.B1041.4419137.217
MichiganB1040.9420135.0827
UCLAP1240.221236.321
FloridaSEC39.9422135.7723
MontanaBSky39.142339.1412
MarquetteBE39.022439.0213
Kansas St.B1238.5225133.9838
Arizona St.P1238.022638.0216
Texas A&MSEC37.927230.1157
TexasB1237.0928134.3135
IowaB1036.8829231.8952
Florida St.ACC36.883036.8820
Boston CollegeACC36.431128.8765
Iowa St.B1235.9232133.8539
IndianaB1035.643335.6424
TennesseeSEC35.523435.5225
BYUWCC35.283535.2826
St. John'sBE35.0136129.1761
TCUB1234.953734.9528
Fresno St.MWC34.883834.8829
DavidsonA1034.843934.8430
NorthwesternB1034.834034.8331
HoustonAmer34.74134.732
NortheasternCAA34.484234.4834
WashingtonP1234.3343130.8254
AlabamaSEC34.1744327.3876
VanderbiltSEC34.124534.1236
ButlerBE34.114634.1137
Texas TechB1233.8847126.0197
South Dakota St.Sum33.854833.8540
Notre DameACC33.74933.742
PurdueB1033.6550127.5475
XavierBE33.615133.6143
ClemsonACC33.445233.4444
CreightonBE32.795432.7945
West VirginiaB1232.745532.7446
Loyola ChicagoMVC32.725632.7247
GeorgetownBE32.585732.5848
ProvidenceBE32.465832.4649
USCP1232.425932.4250
Wake ForestACC32.226032.2251
Penn St.B1031.3161126.5682
San Diego St.MWC31.286231.2853
IllinoisB1030.646330.6455
WisconsinB1030.216430.2156
MissouriSEC30.1865125.46105
SMUAmer29.9366222.14153
ArizonaP1229.726729.7258
Oregon St.P1229.726829.7259
BuffaloMAC29.396929.3960
StanfordP1229.067029.0662
UNC GreensboroSC29.047129.0463
LouisvilleACC2972126.1991
San DiegoWCC28.987328.9864
BaylorB1228.847428.8466
South DakotaSum28.587528.5867
Georgia TechACC28.4476123.55134
Georgia St.SB28.0477125.25111
DaytonA1028.0178128.4168
Rhode IslandA1027.987927.9869
MarshallCUSA27.938027.9370
BelmontOVC27.98127.971
ArkansasSEC27.898227.8972
WoffordSC27.718327.7173
TempleAmer27.78427.774
Oklahoma St.B1227.358527.3577
Northern KentuckyHorz27.038627.0378
New MexicoMWC27.028727.0279
Murray St.OVC26.878826.8780
MinnesotaB1026.718926.7181
ConnecticutAmer26.539026.5383
LipscombASun26.59126.584
RiderMAAC26.389226.3885
UC DavisBW26.359326.3586
Louisiana LafayetteSB26.359426.3587
RichmondA1026.39526.388
ToledoMAC26.279626.2789
CincinnatiAmer26.29726.290
Northern IowaMVC26.169826.1692
Ball St.MAC26.139926.1393
FurmanSC26.1310026.1394
LibertyBSth26.1210126.1295
Southern IllinoisMVC26.0210226.0296
North TexasCUSA25.9910325.9998
MississippiSEC25.8610525.86100
AkronMAC25.7210625.72101
South CarolinaSEC25.7110725.71102
OklahomaB1225.6910825.69103
Georgia SouthernSB25.6210925.62104
Saint Mary'sWCC25.4311025.43106
Fort WayneSum25.4211125.42107
Middle TennesseeCUSA25.3611225.36108
GeorgiaSEC25.3611325.36109
New Mexico St.WAC25.2711425.27110
MemphisAmer25.2311525.23112
CanisiusMAAC25.1111625.11113
RutgersB1025.111725.1114
Jacksonville St.OVC24.8611824.86115
Wichita St.Amer24.85119119.12193
HofstraCAA24.72121119.83180
Saint Joseph'sA1024.712224.7117
HarvardIvy24.6912324.69118
Utah St.MWC24.6212424.62119
DePaulBE24.4112524.41120
Old DominionCUSA24.3912624.39121
TulsaAmer24.3812724.38122
UC IrvineBW24.1512924.15125
VermontAE2413024126
Weber St.BSky23.9713123.97127
Illinois St.MVC23.9113223.91128
TulaneAmer23.78133118.85198
CornellIvy23.7813423.78130
St. BonaventureA1023.6113523.61132
Wright St.Horz23.5613623.56133
ValparaisoMVC23.4813723.48135
Saint LouisA1023.3613823.36136
PacificWCC23.3613923.36137
Utah ValleyWAC23.3114023.31138
Southern MissCUSA23.1814123.18139
Idaho St.BSky23.0914223.09140
Eastern MichiganMAC23.08143124.32123
UTSACUSA22.9914422.99141
UCFAmer22.8614522.86142
St. Francis PANEC22.7114622.71143
Austin PeayOVC22.7114722.71144
CampbellBSth22.6914822.69145
College of CharlestonCAA22.4814922.48146
Seton HallBE22.4815022.48147
IonaMAAC22.4615122.46148
Stephen F. AustinSlnd22.41152123.83129
William & MaryCAA22.3715322.37149
Eastern WashingtonBSky22.3415422.34150
OhioMAC22.2815622.28152
MassachusettsA1022.0915722.09154
Central MichiganMAC22.0915822.09155
WinthropBSth22.0815922.08156
Indiana St.MVC22.0116022.01157
Cal St. FullertonBW21.9716121.97158
Southeast Missouri St.OVC21.6716221.67159
YaleIvy21.6516321.65160
Illinois ChicagoHorz21.4716421.47161
San FranciscoWCC21.2216521.22162
UABCUSA21.1116621.11163
ColumbiaIvy21.0816721.08164
TowsonCAA20.9816820.98165
PrincetonIvy20.9716920.97166
Northern IllinoisMAC20.817120.8168
Missouri St.MVC20.7117220.71169
Grand CanyonWAC20.6217320.62170
Loyola MarymountWCC20.6117420.61171
UNLVMWC20.617520.6172
PepperdineWCC20.517620.5173
WyomingMWC20.3717720.37174
PennIvy20.2817820.28176
HartfordAE20.0517920.05177
Kent St.MAC20.0418020.04178
LehighPat19.9418119.94179
UT ArlingtonSB19.818219.8181
Charleston SouthernBSth19.78183120.36175
EvansvilleMVC19.6718419.67182
La SalleA1019.6118519.61183
North FloridaASun19.518619.5184
Louisiana TechCUSA19.4618719.46185
East Tennessee St.SC19.4518819.45186
UNC AshevilleBSth19.4518919.45187
Western KentuckyCUSA19.3519019.35188
Western MichiganMAC19.319119.3189
South AlabamaSB19.2219219.22190
TroySB19.1419319.14191
George MasonA1019.1319419.13192
UNC WilmingtonCAA19.0919519.09194
VCUA1019.0519719.05196
NJITASun18.9519818.95197
SeattleWAC18.8219918.82199
DuquesneA1018.5920018.59200
Louisiana MonroeSB18.5220118.52201
Texas SouthernSWAC18.4820218.48202
Coastal CarolinaSB18.3620318.36203
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd18.220418.2204
MilwaukeeHorz18.1220518.12205
ColgatePat17.9820617.98206
LamarSlnd17.9120717.91207
UtahP1217.8920817.89208
Montana St.BSky17.8520917.85209
Washington St.P1217.84210113.71263
Miami OHMAC17.7621117.76210
MonmouthMAAC17.6121217.61211
WagnerNEC17.4821317.48212
IdahoBSky17.2621417.26213
DrexelCAA17.1921517.19214
FIUCUSA17.1721617.17215
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC17.121717.1216
North DakotaBSky17.0921817.09217
Bowling GreenMAC17.0621917.06218
CaliforniaP1217.0122017.01219
Portland St.BSky16.9122116.91220
ElonCAA16.922216.9221
Saint Peter'sMAAC16.8722416.87223
UC Santa BarbaraBW16.6622516.66224
Boston UniversityPat16.4522616.45225
DelawareCAA16.4522716.45226
HawaiiBW16.4322816.43227
Eastern KentuckyOVC16.3922916.39228
Robert MorrisNEC16.2923016.29229
NiagaraMAAC16.2723116.27230
Boise St.MWC16.2623216.26231
LIU BrooklynNEC16.2423316.24232
Texas St.SB16.1123416.11233
DenverSum16.0923516.09234
Tennessee St.OVC16.0623616.06235
Nicholls St.Slnd15.9623715.96236
Appalachian St.SB15.9523815.95237
Sam Houston St.Slnd15.8423915.84238
AlbanyAE15.6124015.61239
Air ForceMWC15.5524115.55240
UMBCAE15.4824215.48241
FairfieldMAAC15.3924315.39242
Stony BrookAE15.2424415.24243
Oral RobertsSum15.2424515.24244
HamptonMEAC15.2324615.23245
OaklandHorz15.0924715.09246
High PointBSth15.0824815.08247
DrakeMVC14.9624914.96248
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC14.9125014.91249
Long Beach St.BW14.925114.9250
George WashingtonA1014.8725214.87251
NavyPat14.5925314.59252
BrownIvy14.5425414.54253
ArmyPat14.4925514.49254
BinghamtonAE14.2925614.29256
ManhattanMAAC14.23257114.37255
North Dakota St.Sum14.0525814.05257
QuinnipiacMAAC13.9325913.93258
HowardMEAC13.9126013.91259
JacksonvilleASun13.826113.8260
FordhamA1013.7826213.78261
MercerSC13.7526313.75262
Mount St. Mary'sNEC13.6826413.68264
New OrleansSlnd13.6726513.67265
CharlotteCUSA13.55266110.94306
BucknellPat13.5326713.53266
Eastern IllinoisOVC13.4626813.46267
ChattanoogaSC13.3526913.35268
DetroitHorz13.2527013.25269
Florida Gulf CoastASun13.2227113.22270
Santa ClaraWCC13.1427213.14271
Central ArkansasSlnd13.0127313.01272
Abilene ChristianSlnd12.8727412.87274
PortlandWCC12.8627512.86275
Holy CrossPat12.7727612.77276
Gardner WebbBSth12.727712.7277
St. Francis NYNEC12.6927812.69278
Western CarolinaSC12.6227912.62279
Tennessee MartinOVC12.5228112.52280
Southern UtahBSky12.4428212.44281
Alabama St.SWAC12.4228312.42282
Sacramento St.BSky12.3328412.33283
DartmouthIvy12.3228512.32284
AmericanPat12.2928712.29286
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd12.1628812.16287
Little RockSB12.0828912.08288
Prairie View A&MSWAC12.0629012.06289
PittsburghACC11.9129111.91290
Bethune CookmanMEAC11.8529211.85291
Tennessee TechOVC11.8329311.83292
Central ConnecticutNEC11.8129411.81293
SienaMAAC11.8129511.81294
Green BayHorz11.7929611.79295
North Carolina CentralMEAC11.7829711.78296
LafayettePat11.6929811.69297
UMass LowellAE11.5529911.55299
South FloridaAmer11.5130011.51300
UTEPCUSA11.4630111.46301
McNeese St.Slnd11.18302111.67298
Sacred HeartNEC11.1530311.15302
MaristMAAC11.1330411.13303
SamfordSC11.0730511.07304
North Carolina A&TMEAC11.0730611.07305
Loyola MDPat10.8630710.86307
Arkansas St.SB10.7430810.74308
IUPUIHorz10.7330910.73309
New HampshireAE10.6931010.69310
Youngstown St.Horz10.6231110.62311
Norfolk St.MEAC10.5931210.59312
UMKCWAC10.4831310.48313
Western IllinoisSum10.4531410.45314
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC10.4331510.43315
SouthernSWAC10.431610.4316
RiceCUSA10.3531710.35317
Cal PolyBW10.2631810.26318
StetsonASun10.1831910.18319
Northwestern St.Slnd9.893209.89320
East CarolinaAmer9.873219.87321
Northern ArizonaBSky9.863229.86322
Cal St. NorthridgeBW9.63239.6324
UC RiversideBW9.523249.52325
Savannah St.MEAC9.4932519.81323
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC9.443269.44326
Cleveland St.Horz9.273279.27327
Houston BaptistSlnd9.013289.01328
Florida A&MMEAC9.013299.01329
Florida AtlanticCUSA9.013309.01330
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC8.963318.96331
Delaware St.MEAC8.73328.7332
VMISC8.623338.62333
Kennesaw St.ASun8.533348.53334
MaineAE7.973357.97335
Grambling St.SWAC7.933367.93336
South Carolina St.MEAC7.663377.66337
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC7.53387.5338
Morgan St.MEAC7.393397.39339
Incarnate WordSlnd7.363407.36340
San Jose St.MWC7.263417.26341
PresbyterianBSth7.223427.22342
Jackson St.SWAC7.183437.18343
USC UpstateASun7.053447.05344
BryantNEC73457345
Chicago St.WAC6.613466.61346
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC6.413476.41347
Alcorn St.SWAC5.523485.52348
LongwoodBSth5.173495.17349
Coppin St.MEAC5.163505.16350
Alabama A&MSWAC4.83514.8351