Friday, June 16, 2017

Value Add Database Updated: Freshman, Returning Players, JUCOs, Transfers & NBA Bound

The following is a comprehensive review of Value Add broken into; 1) SIMPLE. those who just want to look up values of past and future players, 2) UNDERSTAND HOW. those who want to track players, and 3) TECHNICAL. those who want to take a critical review of the technical accuracy of the season.

SIMPLE - Click to find players

A June 2017 update to the database yielded 61,019 player seasons and 3,706 projections for how good players will be in the upcoming season.

UNDERSTANDING - 5 Phases of Players' Careers

The process for projecting the Value Add for all returning players and looking at those who make the NBA is broken into the following give posts to cover the five potential phases of each player’s college basketball career:

Value Add Group 1: Top 2017-18 Freshmen and How Many Points Each is Worth
Value Add Group 2: Top Returning Sophomores, Juniors andSeniors
Value Add Group 3: Top-ranked Transfers
Value Add Group 4: Top JUCO Transfers: Projected Value for 2018, and Best Since 2011

Value Add Group 5: NBA Prospects for Thursday's Draft

TECHNICAL - Are Value Add Basketball Rankings the same as WAR 

Value Add is a formula developed to determine how many points each player is worth to his team – or in other words how many points his team’s margin of victory or defeat would change if he was replaced by a standard replacement player. Major media outlets writing about Value Add Basketball compare it to baseball’s WAR (Wins Above Replacement), which is very accurate with a few differences:

a.       a. Value Add determines how many POINTS per game a player is worth, rather than WINS. A team with an All-American with a 10.00 Value Add who won a game by six points, would be expected to lose that game by four points without the All-American and his 10.00 Value Add.  

a.      The sixth through ninth best player on an average team would each have a Value Add of between 0.00 and 1.00, so the Value Add is based on that level of players taking the place of the player in question.

b.      A strong team with better replacements will not be hurt as much – and the actual impact on their team will be close to the Value Add of the player in question MINUS the Value Add of the seventh best player on the team. (e.g. if the seventh best player on the team that lost the All-American (with a Value Add of 10.00) had a Value Add of 3.00, then the team would actually be hurt by 7 points a game (10.00 minus 7.00) rather than the full impact of 10 points the All-American would have on a lesser team.

WAR assumes the player is replaced by a specific player (e.g. a shortstop is replaced by a shortstop both in the line-up and at the plate. The lost value actually results from the Domino effect of a series of players having to handle the ball more (each less efficient than the missing player due to more defensive attention and less rest in the game).


  1. Very interesting blog. Alot of blogs I see these days don't really provide anything that I'm interested in, but I'm most definately interested in this one. Just thought that I would post and let you know. Cheap NBA 2K18 MT

  2. John I noticed that you make an assumption when accounting for injuries where if you have a situation where a player will be absent for a game, you assume the cohort of players that takes his place will play at replacement level. I don't think that is necessarily the case