Saturday, April 7, 2018

Statis-Pro Standings, Pre-season ranking based on cards and Results (2018 Rosters, 2017 Player Cards)

Standings, Strength of Schedule, schedule for 1st 5 series to balance all teams SOS

  • Boston 5-1, SOS 4.2 (Sale 16 strikeout, 0 walks, 2 hit 3-0 shutout against scary Orioles line-up that will win a ton, then 8-3 SWEEP with Kimbrel saving as best closer). Next up Sea, NY, TB for SOS 4.9 through 24 games & get 3rd best NL team for next.
  • New York 4-2, SOS 8.0 (3-1 and 8-5 over Angels, Stanton added to line-up which produced 5 HRs in 1st two games and incredible pen). Next up KC, Bost, Det for SOS 4.9 through 24 games and get 2nd toughest NL team next.
  • Tampa 4-2, SOS 4.4 (Kiermaier 2nd homer of game broke tie in 10th for 3-2 win, then he hit a 3rd in a wild 12-11 11th inning win against Texas). Next up Balt, KC, Boston for 5.0 SOS through 24 games and get 5th toughest NL next.
  • Toronto 2-4, SOS 5.2 (10th inning 4-5 loss, then 5-6  to Seattle with only one homer). Next up Oak, Min, Hou for 5.9 SOS through 24 games and get 13th toughest NL next..
  • Baltimore 1-5, SOS 8.6 (loaded with power, scary lineup despite 0-3 loss to Sale). Next up TB, Oak, Cl for 6.1 SOS through 24 games and get 14th toughest NL next.

  • Royals 5-1, SOS 0.0 (6-1 over Tigers only sweep so far - not a great line-up but Merrifield and Moustakas both 2-run homers). Next up NY, TB, LA for 5.1 SOS through 24 games and get 7th best NL next.
  • White Sox 3-3, SOS 10.0 (1-2 loss to Kluber and incredible Indians pen, but huge bat from Orioles' Castillo gives great clean-up hitter for much-improved line-up, and have Pb 2-8 going in second game). Det, Sea and Tex next then get 4th best NL team next.
  • Indians 3-3, SOS 3.8 (best pitching ever including Kluber for 1st start, then lost to 2-8 pitcher for  White Sox). Min, Hou and Balt next for 5.7 SOS through 24 games and get NLs 12th best team next.
  • Minnesota 3-3, SOS 3.4 (12th inning 5-4 over Oakland but not a lot of power), and used 5 pitchers in 4-6 loss in finale). Cle, Tor, Oak next for 5.4 SOS through 24 games and get 9th best NL next.
  • Tigers 1-5, SOS 2.8 (first team swept with 1-6 loss to Royals, but both line-ups pretty weak, then lost again). Chi, LA, NY next for 5.6 SOS then get 11th best NL next.
  • Houston 5-1, SOS 8.0 (Verlander led a combined shutout, and McCann finally broke the scoreless dual with a 2-run homer his 3rd time up in the 9 hole. Marisnick and Springer added 2-run homers each off the pin to give the Astros the 6-0 win and a sweep.) Tex, Tor, Cle next for 6.3 SOS through 24 games and get weakest NL team next.
  • Seattle 4-2, SOS 4.8 (10th inning 5-4 over Toronto on Cano homer, then rallied from 1-4 down for 6-5 win with deep and strong bullpen for big wins on two teams right in the middle). Bost, Chi, Tex next for 5.4 SOS through 24 games and get NLs 10th best team next.
  • Oakland 3-3, SOS 6.2 (12th inning 4-5 loss to Minnesota but a TON of power and walks should improve them - Matt Olson helps win the second with the first of many homers of the greatest card since fellow A's player Mickey Klutz with a 15-32 home for 55 games). Tor, Balt, Min next for 5.4 SOS through 24 games and get NL's 8th toughest team next.
  • Texas 2-4, SOS 2.4 (10th inning 2-3 loss to Tampa, but Choo nice addition as cleanup with both RBIs and homer on 2 of 3 game. 2nd game 9th inning grandslam by Andrus gave them 11-9 lead, but they could not hold it and lost in 11 innings 12-11. Tough losses against a team that looks lower level.) Hou, Chi, Sea next or 5.0 SOS and get NLs 6th toughest team next.
  • LA Anaheim 3-9, SOS 8.2 (three new studs in the line-up including Ohtani debut hitting but will start 3rd game, but bullpen AWFUL. Changed Trout's CD from 1 to 4, but lower Richard's PB from 2-9 to 2-8 for only 6 starts. Unfair to start them against Yankees and Astros, so they will get 2 easy teams next, but someone had to finish a 2-game series to play the odd 15th team out - Astros - and couldn't resist Ohtani vs. Verlander). Next up Det (0.0) and KC (2.8) to lower SOS down to weakest 4.8 then get toughest NL team next.
Here is how good I believe each team is on paper based on the gain or loss of big time players (or a part-time player they get full-time this year in the game) as an adjustment to last year's record. In other words, the Indians look like the best team and get a 10.0, and the Tigers look like the worst team and get a 0.0. The Red Sox and Astros seem tied for second at a 8.6, then the Angels and Yankees at 8.0 and 7.8 virtually tied for 4th best in the AL.

Baltimore Orioles4.2
Boston Red Sox8.6
Chicago White Sox3.8
Cleveland Indians10.0
Detroit Tigers0.0
Houston Astros8.6
Kansas City Royals2.8
Los Angeles Angels8.0
Minnesota Twins6.2
New York Yankees7.8
Oakland Athletics3.4
Seattle Mariners5.2
Tampa Bay Rays2.4
Texas Rangers4.4
Toronto Blue Jays4.8

For each team I put their record based on a 5-run win counting as a 3-0 sweep, and other wins as a 2-1 sweep. The Strength of Schedule (SOS) is based on how good their average opponents cards are based on last year's records adjusted for excellent players gained or lost.

Team (Wins in Q, losses at bottomBalBosChiClDetHouKCLAMinNYYOakSeaTBTexTorStatis-Pro 2018 Wins
Baltimore Oriolesx11
Boston Red Sox2x2
Chicago White Soxx11
Cleveland Indians2x2
Detroit Tigersx00
Houston Astrosx33
Kansas City Royals3x3
Los Angeles Angelsx22
Minnesota Twinsx22
New York Yankees4x4
Oakland Athletics1x1
Seattle Marinersx22
Tampa Bay Raysx22
Texas Rangers1x1
Toronto Blue Jays1x1
Statis Pro Loses212130071221122x

Minnesota 5, Oakland 4 (12 innings): After Joe Mauer's third hit of the day, Mitch Garver uses his OBR B to go first to third, and then tag up on Eddie Rosario's second sac fly of the game. HRs, Okland Davis, Minn Buxton and Morrison. W- Rogers, L Petit.

Seattle 5, Toronto 4 (10 innings)

Tampa 3, Texas 2 (10 innings)

Indians 2, White Sox 1 - White Sox lineup improved but Cleveland may have the best pitching staff in Statis Pro history, particularly when Kluber starts.

Royals 6, Tigers 1 - Counts as sweep.

League Rules
Each game counts as a 3-game series. Winning team gets a 2-1 series win unless they win by at least 5 runs without extra innings, in which case they get a 3-0 sweep. Mathematically, it is just as hard to get a 5-run win as a sweep and run differential is a truer test in the short season.

Using 2017 Statis-Pro cards but current rosters. As long as someone is on the roster they can be used in a better role (eg a player with a better card from last year can play ahead of the player actually starting this year, or relievers who have better cards can be the closer. Also, relievers can be used to protect against a sweep (closer to hold a 5-run lead or keep a 4-run deficit from becoming a 5-run deficit.

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