The following is a comprehensive review of Value Add broken into; 1) SIMPLE. those who just want to look up values of past and future players, 2) UNDERSTAND HOW. those who want to track players, and 3) TECHNICAL. those who want to take a critical review of the technical accuracy of the season.
A June 2017 update to the www.valueaddbasketball.com database yielded 61,019 player seasons and 3,706 projections for how good players will be in the upcoming season.
SIMPLE - Click to find players
A June 2017 update to the www.valueaddbasketball.com database yielded 61,019 player seasons and 3,706 projections for how good players will be in the upcoming season.
UNDERSTANDING - 5 Phases of Players' Careers
The process for projecting the Value Add for all returning players and looking at those who make the NBA is broken into the following give posts to cover the five potential phases of each player’s college basketball career:
Value Add Group 1: Top 2017-18 Freshmen and How Many Points
Each is Worth
Value Add Group 2: Top Returning Sophomores, Juniors andSeniors
Value Add Group 3: Top-ranked Transfers
Value Add Group 4: Top JUCO Transfers: Projected Value for
2018, and Best Since 2011
Value Add Group 5: NBA Prospects for Thursday's Draft
TECHNICAL - Are Value Add Basketball Rankings the same as WAR
Value Add is a formula developed to determine how many
points each player is worth to his team – or in other words how many points his
team’s margin of victory or defeat would change if he was replaced by a
standard replacement player. Major media outlets writing about Value Add
Basketball compare it to baseball’s WAR (Wins Above Replacement), which is very
accurate with a few differences:
a. a. Value Add determines how many POINTS per game a
player is worth, rather than WINS. A team with an All-American with a 10.00
Value Add who won a game by six points, would be expected to lose that game by
four points without the All-American and his 10.00 Value Add.
a.
The sixth through ninth best player on an
average team would each have a Value Add of between 0.00 and 1.00, so the Value
Add is based on that level of players taking the place of the player in
question.
b.
A strong team with better replacements will not
be hurt as much – and the actual impact on their team will be close to the
Value Add of the player in question MINUS the Value Add of the seventh best
player on the team. (e.g. if the seventh best player on the team that lost the
All-American (with a Value Add of 10.00) had a Value Add of 3.00, then the team
would actually be hurt by 7 points a game (10.00 minus 7.00) rather than the
full impact of 10 points the All-American would have on a lesser team.
WAR assumes the player is replaced by a specific player (e.g. a shortstop is replaced by a shortstop both in the line-up and at the plate. The lost value actually results from the Domino effect of a series of players having to handle the ball more (each less efficient than the missing player due to more defensive attention and less rest in the game).
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ReplyDeleteJohn I noticed that you make an assumption when accounting for injuries where if you have a situation where a player will be absent for a game, you assume the cohort of players that takes his place will play at replacement level. I don't think that is necessarily the case
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