Friday, June 16, 2017

Value Add Group 1: Top 2017-18 Freshmen and How Many Points Each is Worth

The first group of prospects ranked at are the freshman.

Projecting freshmen takes the least explanation. The top couple of freshmen each year average an 8.00 Value Add or better, and about 465 freshman make a contribution of at least 0.40 points per game above a replacement player. Michael Porter tops the list below, making Missouri 9.00 points better per game for his one year before going onto be a star in the NBA.

Anthony Davis' Value Add of 13.81 points per game as a freshmen makes him the greatest college player during the years in the all-time Value Add Basketball database, going back to the 2001-02 season. In the five years since Davis 2012 campaign, Kentucky's Karl-Anthony Towns is the only freshman worth more than 10 points per game.

Freshmen are generally overrated - turning the ball over and making defensive mistakes to offset the good plays they make. Porter is one of only 26 freshman that project in the top 300. As usually, that means less than 10 percent of the top players  this season are freshmen.

The other bad news for 350 basketball teams is that Kentucky coach John Caliprari hoarded six of those 26 star freshman

Only 262 freshman project to improve their team by at least one point a game based on

Over RankFreshmen ProjectionsTeamVA5
13Michael PorterMissouri9.00
22Mohamed BambaTexas8.50
31DeAndre AytonArizona8.00
41Collin SextonAlabama7.50
60Jaren JacksonMichigan St.7.00
61Lonnie WalkerMiami FL6.99
72Gary Trent JrDuke6.81
89Jarred VanderbiltKentucky6.56
93Kevin KnoxKentucky6.53
106Wendell CarterDuke6.33
117Nick RichardsKentucky6.20
120Mitchell RobinsonWestern Kentucky6.14
137Troy BrownOregon6.02
145Brandon McCoyNevada Las Vegas5.83
159Trevon DuvalDuke5.74
165Billy PrestonKansas5.69
166Hamidou DialloKentucky5.62
171PJ WashingtonKentucky5.59
195Brian BowenLouisville5.31
200Emmanuel AkotArizona5.28
221Kris WilkesUCLA5.16
233Jaylen HandsUCLA5.07
241Trae YoungOklahoma5.03
262Quade GreenKentucky4.90
284Malik WilliamsLouisville4.76

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