Projecting freshmen takes the least explanation. The top couple of freshmen each year average an 8.00 Value Add or better, and about 465 freshman make a contribution of at least 0.40 points per game above a replacement player. Michael Porter tops the list below, making Missouri 9.00 points better per game for his one year before going onto be a star in the NBA.
Anthony Davis' Value Add of 13.81 points per game as a freshmen makes him the greatest college player during the years in the all-time Value Add Basketball database, going back to the 2001-02 season. In the five years since Davis 2012 campaign, Kentucky's Karl-Anthony Towns is the only freshman worth more than 10 points per game.
Freshmen are generally overrated - turning the ball over and making defensive mistakes to offset the good plays they make. Porter is one of only 26 freshman that project in the top 300. As usually, that means less than 10 percent of the top players this season are freshmen.
The other bad news for 350 basketball teams is that Kentucky coach John Caliprari hoarded six of those 26 star freshman
Only 262 freshman project to improve their team by at least one point a game based on www.valueaddbasketball.com.
|Over Rank||Freshmen Projections||Team||VA5|
|60||Jaren Jackson||Michigan St.||7.00|
|61||Lonnie Walker||Miami FL||6.99|
|72||Gary Trent Jr||Duke||6.81|
|120||Mitchell Robinson||Western Kentucky||6.14|
|145||Brandon McCoy||Nevada Las Vegas||5.83|