Value Add Group 1: Top 2017-18 Freshmen and How Many Points Each is Worth

The first group of prospects ranked at www.valueaddbasketball.com are the freshman.

Projecting freshmen takes the least explanation. The top couple of freshmen each year average an 8.00 Value Add or better, and about 465 freshman make a contribution of at least 0.40 points per game above a replacement player. Michael Porter tops the list below, making Missouri 9.00 points better per game for his one year before going onto be a star in the NBA.

Anthony Davis' Value Add of 13.81 points per game as a freshmen makes him the greatest college player during the years in the all-time Value Add Basketball database, going back to the 2001-02 season. In the five years since Davis 2012 campaign, Kentucky's Karl-Anthony Towns is the only freshman worth more than 10 points per game.

Freshmen are generally overrated - turning the ball over and making defensive mistakes to offset the good plays they make. Porter is one of only 26 freshman that project in the top 300. As usually, that means less than 10 percent of the top players  this season are freshmen.

The other bad news for 350 basketball teams is that Kentucky coach John Caliprari hoarded six of those 26 star freshman

Only 262 freshman project to improve their team by at least one point a game based on www.valueaddbasketball.com.

Over Rank	Freshmen Projections	Team	VA5
13	Michael Porter	Missouri	9.00
22	Mohamed Bamba	Texas	8.50
31	DeAndre Ayton	Arizona	8.00
41	Collin Sexton	Alabama	7.50
60	Jaren Jackson	Michigan St.	7.00
61	Lonnie Walker	Miami FL	6.99
72	Gary Trent Jr	Duke	6.81
89	Jarred Vanderbilt	Kentucky	6.56
93	Kevin Knox	Kentucky	6.53
106	Wendell Carter	Duke	6.33
117	Nick Richards	Kentucky	6.20
120	Mitchell Robinson	Western Kentucky	6.14
137	Troy Brown	Oregon	6.02
145	Brandon McCoy	Nevada Las Vegas	5.83
159	Trevon Duval	Duke	5.74
165	Billy Preston	Kansas	5.69
166	Hamidou Diallo	Kentucky	5.62
171	PJ Washington	Kentucky	5.59
195	Brian Bowen	Louisville	5.31
200	Emmanuel Akot	Arizona	5.28
221	Kris Wilkes	UCLA	5.16
233	Jaylen Hands	UCLA	5.07
241	Trae Young	Oklahoma	5.03
262	Quade Green	Kentucky	4.90
284	Malik Williams	Louisville	4.76