Value Add Group 2: Top Returning Sophomores, Juniors and Seniors

The 2017-18 Projected Value Add of 3,291 players is based on the following process. Returning sophomores make the biggest jump from their freshman season, generally worth about 1 point more per game than their sophomore season. A player generally continues to improve his junior and senior season, but not as much as that first off season.

The following are the top three returning sophomores, juniors and seniors based on projected Value Add:

Top 3 Sophomores; 1, Shamorie Ponds, St. John's 8.13 points per game; 2, Bruce Brown, Miami FL 8.02; 3, Mike Watkins, Penn St. 7.78.

Top 3 Juniors; 1. Ethan Happ, Wisconsin   10.65; 2, Mike Daum, South Dakota St. 9.36; 3, Jalen Brunson, Villanova 9.16.

Top 3 Seniors; 1, Bonzie Colson, Notre Dame 11.33; 2, Jock Landale, St. Mary's 10.38; 3, Ben Lammers, Georgia Tech 10.3.

The values of 313 players who will sit out the coming season after transferring but can take the court again will also be listed at www.valueaddbasketball.com, but you can type "2018" to narrow and only look at the players on the court next season.

A new study of the 61,000+ Value Add rankings from the 2001-02 to present season yielded the following year-by-year averages among all players who played four seasons at the same college:

Freshman Value Add Range	Freshman	Sophomore	Junior	Senior
Exactly 0.00	0.00	0.82	1.13	1.36
up to 1.00	0.59	1.18	1.57	1.90
up to 2.00	1.31	2.24	2.78	3.31
up to 3.00	2.22	2.84	3.48	3.94
3.01 or higher	3.99	4.05	4.55	5.23
4 year players, same school	0.98	1.66	2.09	2.48

All such players with a 0.01 to 1.00 Value Add their freshman year averaged improving to 1.18 their sophomore season, 1.57 their junior season and 1.90 their senor season. Based purely on this table it would appear that players with a strong freshman year actually do not improve as much as freshman who do not do as well. However, this is actually because players who already have freshman Value Add ratings of around 3.00 or higher and improve often go directly to the NBA, meaning their jumps each year are not reflected in the table.

In comparing result of NBA-bound players with these four-year players, we find that a standard improvement from season to season is actually better after any season in which the player tops 1.00. The standard projection is calculated for each player based on the following:

• A freshman with a rating of 1.01 or higher projects to improve by 1.00 his sophomore year, while others project to improve by 0.7.
• A sophomore with a rating of 1.01 or higher projects to improve 0.8 his junior year, while others improve 0.4. 
• A junior with a rating of 1.01 or higher projects to improve 06 his senior year, while others improve 0.3.

Alternated minimum projects replace these projections for some select players:

• A player ranked as one of the top 50 or so NBA prospects in their place have a minimum Value Add ranking based on exactly where they rank that will take the place of a lower projected Value Add using the system above.
• A player who was highly rated as a recruit who has a bad year (often the result of injury or a lack of playing time) gets at least a rating equal to one point below the average number of stars he received as a recruit (e.g. a 5-star recruit who has a bad first year, still gets at least a 4.0 Value Add based on a history of such players improvement much more dramatically than others).

Based on running this math, and spending a couple of weeks trying to get players sorted and onto their correct teams, the following are the players projected to have the top Value Add impact on their teams next season.

Rnk	Playerb	Team	Conf	VA5
1	Bonzie Colson 35	Notre Dame	ACC	11.33
2	Ethan Happ 22	Wisconsin	B10	10.65
3	Jock Landale 34	St. Mary's	WCC	10.38
4	Ben Lammers 44	Georgia Tech	ACC	10.3
5	Jevon Carter 2	West Virginia	B12	9.96
6	Kenrich Williams 34	Texas Christian	B12	9.93
7	Peyton Aldridge 23	Davidson	A10	9.73
8	Jeffrey Carroll 30	Oklahoma St.	B12	9.61
9	Mike Daum 24	South Dakota St.	Sum	9.36
10	Joe Chealey 13	College of Charleston	CAA	9.29
11	Jalen Brunson 1	Villanova	BE	9.16
12	Dedric Lawson 1	Memphis	Amer	9.12
13	Michael Porter	Missouri	SEC	9
14	Vladimir Brodziansky 10	Texas Christian	B12	8.82
15	Mikal Bridges 25	Villanova	BE	8.78
16	Devontae Cacok 15	UNC Wilmington	CAA	8.75
17	Jacob Evans 1	Cincinnati	Amer	8.72
18	Brandon Clarke 15	San Jose St.	MWC	8.71
19	Gary Clark 11	Cincinnati	Amer	8.68
20	Jaylen Adams 10	St. Bonaventure	A10	8.55
21	Rob Gray 32	Houston	Amer	8.54
22	Mohamed Bamba	Texas	B12	8.5
23	Yante Maten 1	Georgia	SEC	8.4
24	Shake Milton 1	Southern Methodist	Amer	8.38
25	Khyri Thomas 2	Creighton	BE	8.21

When we tally all players we find in the system, and add the team cumulative team ratings, the follow would be the "way too early" field of 68 teams - including all conference winners and the top at-large:

I wouldn't put any credibility on the team totals, I finally got to a point I could at least run it but would be pretty shocked to see the Alabama-Auburn basketball game be this big, haha.  I do have a starting point now though with the data in the system and calculated.

Teams like defending national champion North Carolina lost most of their big Value Add players, but will restock and move up this list, though they did drop from 1st to 61st at www.kenpom.com after the 2009 title.

Tournament Field	Conf	Projected
Kentucky	SEC	55.22
Louisville	ACC	51.75
Wichita St.	MVC	47.84
Cincinnati	Amer	45.24
Alabama	SEC	44.13
Southern California	P12	44.08
Arizona	P12	44.04
Purdue	B10	43.85
Florida	SEC	43.78
Providence	BE	41.80
Auburn	SEC	41.71
Michigan St.	B10	41.64
Texas A&M	SEC	41.32
West Virginia	B12	40.44
Seton Hall	BE	40.36
Miami FL	ACC	40.11
Minnesota	B10	39.61
Texas Christian	B12	39.55
Xavier	BE	39.47
Missouri	SEC	39.21
UCLA	P12	39.18
Texas	B12	37.91
Villanova	BE	37.25
Arkansas	SEC	36.64
Duke	ACC	36.32
St. Mary's	WCC	36.26
Virginia	ACC	35.56
Butler	BE	35.52
Iowa	B10	35.41
Stanford	P12	34.88
Bucknell	Pat	33.90
Maryland	B10	33.53
Tennessee	SEC	33.50
Vanderbilt	SEC	33.32
St. John's	BE	33.16
Georgia	SEC	32.72
Kansas	B12	32.60
Baylor	B12	32.47
Notre Dame	ACC	32.25
Oklahoma St.	B12	31.93
Wake Forest	ACC	31.89
Utah	P12	31.89
Clemson	ACC	31.65
Mississippi St.	SEC	31.64
Wisconsin	B10	31.24
Oakland	Horz	31.24
Creighton	BE	31.16
Western Kentucky	CUSA	30.65
Rhode Island	A10	30.09
College of Charleston	CAA	28.26
Fresno St.	MWC	28.19
Mercer	SC	27.82
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	26.43
Boise St.	WAC	26.19
Liberty	BSth	26.10
Western Michigan	MAC	25.77
Denver	Sum	25.30
Harvard	Ivy	25.02
Iona	MAAC	24.12
Vermont	AE	24.06
Lipscomb	ASun	23.55
Belmont	OVC	22.05
Montana St.	BSky	20.53
UC Irvine	BW	19.86
Lamar	Slnd	19.68
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	18.64
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	17.03
Alcorn St.	SWAC	15.23

Please advice us of any and all corrections to who is on which team.