Sunday, August 28, 2022

Stat Check on Statis-Pro Season, and Pitcher Stats with Bieber as Cy Young Favorite

We have played 36 American League doubleheaders since created the 2022 projected Statis-Pro cards for this season. We track the results on this google sheet.

We double check a couple of things to see if the cards seem skewed to the offense or defense each year.

The most important stat we monitor is "sweeps." The MLB average is that 28% of all 3-game series are swept, while 72% are won by a team 2 games to 1. We try to mirror that with a league rule that if a team wins after leaving by at least 5 runs after 8 innings without using their best reliever, then they get credit for a 3-game sweep, while all other wins count as 2 games to 1 wins.

The good news on the sweeps is that they line up within 2%. In our 72 games to date, 19 were counted as sweeps - so 26.3% of all games.

The runs per game has been slightly high, with 679 runs scored in our 72 games for a total of 4.7 runs per game. That is higher than this seasons actual average of 4.3 runs per game, and even more than last year's 4.53 runs per game. 

2021 MLB2022 MLBStatis-Pro
3-game sweeps:28% 26.3%

We do not keep individual stats from our season, but based on our google sheet, we do run a pivot table to calculated each starting pitchers starts. The following table shows how many games each pitcher started, the average score of each game (Our top Cy Young candidate is likely Cleveland's Shane Bieber who averages winning 5.50 to 3.25). Then it lists each teams record in games in which that pitcher starter (Bieber's Guardians have been 8-4). 

In his four starts, the Guardians had two 3 games to 0 sweeps for a 10-3 win over Minnesota and 6-0 win over Tampa, another 6-3 win over the LA Angels to get credit for 2 wins and 1 loss, however he then lost a start against Houston 7-0 to absorb credit for 3 losses and 0 wins.
Row LabelsStartsRuns Sc    Runs AllWinsLosses
Eovaldi (Bos)44.50    5.7557
Hill (Bos)34.001.7763
Houck (Bos)45.002.0084
Pivetta (Bos)34.336.3336
Bieber (Cle)45.503.2584
Mckenzie (Cle)34.775.3345
Plesac (Cle)33.005.7736
Quantrill (Cle)44.504.0066
Banks (CWS)25.503.0042
Cease (CWS)35.336.0045
Cueto (CWS)12.007.0003
Giolito (CWS)26.506.0024
Keuchel (CWS)22.002.0024
Kopech (CWS)15.004.0021
Lopez (CWS)24.003.5033
Lynn (CWS)13.005.0012
Abreu (Hou)111.007.0021
Garcia (Hou)45.753.5084
Javier (Hou)110.001.0030
McCullers (Hou)13.004.0012
Odorizzi (Hou)32.778.0018
Uriquidy (Hou)14.006.0012
Valdez (Hou)15.003.0021
Verlander (Hou)45.255.7566
Detmers (LAA)38.335.7772
Loup (LAA)10.002.0012
Ohtani (LAA)45.508.7548
Sandoval (LAA)33.334.0045
Syndergaard (LAA)32.003.7745
Bundy (Min)31.332.7745
Gray (Min)45.507.0057
Ober (Min)111.005.0030
Paddack (Min)21.505.0033
Ryan (Min)49.003.0093
Cole (NYY)46.754.5084
German (NYY)33.333.7745
King (NYY)24.503.0042
Montas (NYY)12.000.0021
Montgomery (NYY)33.338.0045
Severino (NYY)35.002.3363
Castillo (Sea)12.009.0003
Flexen (Sea)35.005.0054
Gilbert (Sea)33.005.3336
Gonzalez (Sea)32.336.3327
Kirby (Sea)110.008.0021
Ray (Sea)46.755.2566
Baz (TBR)11.000.0021
Kluber (TBR)43.006.5039
McClanahan (TBR)35.334.7745
Rasmussen (TBR)32.772.7745
Romero (TBR)33.775.7736
Berrios (Tor)45.254.5075
Gausman (Tor)34.333.0054
Kukuchi (Tor)17.0011.0012
Manoah (Tor)38.005.3372
Ryu (Tor)25.502.0051

No comments:

Post a Comment