We have played 36 American League doubleheaders since created the 2022 projected Statis-Pro cards for this season. We track the results on this google sheet.
We double check a couple of things to see if the cards seem skewed to the offense or defense each year.
The most important stat we monitor is "sweeps." The MLB average is that 28% of all 3-game series are swept, while 72% are won by a team 2 games to 1. We try to mirror that with a league rule that if a team wins after leaving by at least 5 runs after 8 innings without using their best reliever, then they get credit for a 3-game sweep, while all other wins count as 2 games to 1 wins.
The good news on the sweeps is that they line up within 2%. In our 72 games to date, 19 were counted as sweeps - so 26.3% of all games.
The runs per game has been slightly high, with 679 runs scored in our 72 games for a total of 4.7 runs per game. That is higher than this seasons actual average of 4.3 runs per game, and even more than last year's 4.53 runs per game.
| 2021 MLB | 2022 MLB | Statis-Pro | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Runs | 22010 | 16331 | 679 |
| Games | 2429 | 1898 | 72 |
| Average | 4.53 | 4.3 | 4.71 |
| 3-game sweeps: | 28% | 26.3% |
| Row Labels | Starts | Runs Sc | Runs All | Wins | Losses |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eovaldi (Bos) | 4 | 4.50 | 5.75 | 5 | 7 |
| Hill (Bos) | 3 | 4.00 | 1.77 | 6 | 3 |
| Houck (Bos) | 4 | 5.00 | 2.00 | 8 | 4 |
| Pivetta (Bos) | 3 | 4.33 | 6.33 | 3 | 6 |
| Bieber (Cle) | 4 | 5.50 | 3.25 | 8 | 4 |
| Mckenzie (Cle) | 3 | 4.77 | 5.33 | 4 | 5 |
| Plesac (Cle) | 3 | 3.00 | 5.77 | 3 | 6 |
| Quantrill (Cle) | 4 | 4.50 | 4.00 | 6 | 6 |
| Banks (CWS) | 2 | 5.50 | 3.00 | 4 | 2 |
| Cease (CWS) | 3 | 5.33 | 6.00 | 4 | 5 |
| Cueto (CWS) | 1 | 2.00 | 7.00 | 0 | 3 |
| Giolito (CWS) | 2 | 6.50 | 6.00 | 2 | 4 |
| Keuchel (CWS) | 2 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2 | 4 |
| Kopech (CWS) | 1 | 5.00 | 4.00 | 2 | 1 |
| Lopez (CWS) | 2 | 4.00 | 3.50 | 3 | 3 |
| Lynn (CWS) | 1 | 3.00 | 5.00 | 1 | 2 |
| Abreu (Hou) | 1 | 11.00 | 7.00 | 2 | 1 |
| Garcia (Hou) | 4 | 5.75 | 3.50 | 8 | 4 |
| Javier (Hou) | 1 | 10.00 | 1.00 | 3 | 0 |
| McCullers (Hou) | 1 | 3.00 | 4.00 | 1 | 2 |
| Odorizzi (Hou) | 3 | 2.77 | 8.00 | 1 | 8 |
| Uriquidy (Hou) | 1 | 4.00 | 6.00 | 1 | 2 |
| Valdez (Hou) | 1 | 5.00 | 3.00 | 2 | 1 |
| Verlander (Hou) | 4 | 5.25 | 5.75 | 6 | 6 |
| Detmers (LAA) | 3 | 8.33 | 5.77 | 7 | 2 |
| Loup (LAA) | 1 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 1 | 2 |
| Ohtani (LAA) | 4 | 5.50 | 8.75 | 4 | 8 |
| Sandoval (LAA) | 3 | 3.33 | 4.00 | 4 | 5 |
| Syndergaard (LAA) | 3 | 2.00 | 3.77 | 4 | 5 |
| Bundy (Min) | 3 | 1.33 | 2.77 | 4 | 5 |
| Gray (Min) | 4 | 5.50 | 7.00 | 5 | 7 |
| Ober (Min) | 1 | 11.00 | 5.00 | 3 | 0 |
| Paddack (Min) | 2 | 1.50 | 5.00 | 3 | 3 |
| Ryan (Min) | 4 | 9.00 | 3.00 | 9 | 3 |
| Cole (NYY) | 4 | 6.75 | 4.50 | 8 | 4 |
| German (NYY) | 3 | 3.33 | 3.77 | 4 | 5 |
| King (NYY) | 2 | 4.50 | 3.00 | 4 | 2 |
| Montas (NYY) | 1 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 2 | 1 |
| Montgomery (NYY) | 3 | 3.33 | 8.00 | 4 | 5 |
| Severino (NYY) | 3 | 5.00 | 2.33 | 6 | 3 |
| Castillo (Sea) | 1 | 2.00 | 9.00 | 0 | 3 |
| Flexen (Sea) | 3 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5 | 4 |
| Gilbert (Sea) | 3 | 3.00 | 5.33 | 3 | 6 |
| Gonzalez (Sea) | 3 | 2.33 | 6.33 | 2 | 7 |
| Kirby (Sea) | 1 | 10.00 | 8.00 | 2 | 1 |
| Ray (Sea) | 4 | 6.75 | 5.25 | 6 | 6 |
| Baz (TBR) | 1 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 2 | 1 |
| Kluber (TBR) | 4 | 3.00 | 6.50 | 3 | 9 |
| McClanahan (TBR) | 3 | 5.33 | 4.77 | 4 | 5 |
| Rasmussen (TBR) | 3 | 2.77 | 2.77 | 4 | 5 |
| Romero (TBR) | 3 | 3.77 | 5.77 | 3 | 6 |
| Berrios (Tor) | 4 | 5.25 | 4.50 | 7 | 5 |
| Gausman (Tor) | 3 | 4.33 | 3.00 | 5 | 4 |
| Kukuchi (Tor) | 1 | 7.00 | 11.00 | 1 | 2 |
| Manoah (Tor) | 3 | 8.00 | 5.33 | 7 | 2 |
| Ryu (Tor) | 2 | 5.50 | 2.00 | 5 | 1 |
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