Sunday, July 19, 2020

Formula for Accurate Statis-pro pitcher cards

In the 40 years I've played Statis-pro the only accurate pitchers cards I've seen are those produced by Derrick of Advanced Statis-pro. The hit, walk and strikeout ranges on PB 2-9 cards in particular have not only been incredibly inaccurate but backward because of the initial charts indicating a PB 2-9 pitcher with the same hits allowed per inning  as a PB 2-5 would have fewer hits on his card rather than more.

I finally decided to create this google sheet to accurately calculate basic Statis-pro pitcher cards any time you need one (e.g. if you use 2019 cards but 2020 rosters and want to create a rookie card). I used Rich Hill's projected stats but calculated as though he were each PB. A PB 2-9 with his same other stats should allow hits on 11-25, and a PB 2-5 should allow hits only on 11-13, etc. The green numbers are the ones you type in, and the sheet calculates the red numbers that would appear on the card (because excel conversions of normal numbers to a Base 8 system like 11-88 use 0 instead of 8, a range like 24-50 below is really the same as a 24-48).

More technical Explanation for Fellow Data Geeks

I thought I finally found someone else with correct formulas when I saw a Aroldis Chapman PB 2-9 projected 2020 cards with a correct Hit Range of 11-22, only to see PB 2-7 Rich Hill had a 11-25 (accurate card would be 11-22) and PB 2-5 Tommy Milone with an 11-33 (correct would be 11-25).

The reason for this is that if Hill were a PB 2-9 then for every 64 times the random number were on his card (accounting for all results from 11-88) the random number would land of the batters' card an average of 13 times, and on those the batter would have 4 hits. (Actually just over 3.5, but rounding in the table). To get to his projected 92 hits in 100 innings as a PB 2-9 he would need to allow hits on 11-25.

As a PB 2-7, he needs 11-22 to average 10 hits per the 64 RNs on his card because on average batters' card he is facing would yield 13 hits in 46 chances.

If he were a PB 2-5 his card would only allow hits on 11-13 because on average the RN would land on the batters' card 166 times and yield 47 hits.

I don't mind that people are selling pitching cards that are not precise, but that they are highly inaccurate such as a PB 2-9 pitching card that only allowed hits on a random number on something like 11-15 when the range should be 11-23.

For those who want to see the actual formulas they are in columns further right than the columns shown below, but if you have any extra pitcher you want to create (e.g. those of us who play current seasons but want to add a rookie) then you can type in just projected innings pitched, hits allowed, strikeouts and walks allowed and this will generate the card.

Derrick's PBs are much more PRECISE than the traditional PB calculation of using the FIPs or ERA. However you still get less precise but cards that are accurate as far as hits, walks, and strikeouts allowed if you start with the traditional way of giving a PB 2-9 to the best 5%, 2-8 if best 15%, PB 2-7 if top 35%, PB 4-7 if 65%, PB 2-6 if top 85%, PB 2-5 if top 95% and PB 2-4 for the bottom.

For purposes of these simple but accurate calculations I just give a player one balk, wild pitch and passed ball - the most common mistake players made over the years is not realizing you do need to read these as an "out" if noone is on base.

The problem from the beginning of the game is that charts were provided when the game first came out that gave the very accurate and simple batting card calculations (much easier since the batter will have action on his card half of his at bats over the course of the season) but was fatally flawed on.the pitcher charts.

Under the assumption that a great PB 2-9 pitcher allowed 92 hits in 100 innings - like in our example above if Rich Hill's projected stats - then he would logically have fewer hits allowed on his card than a much worse PB 2-5 pitcher who allowed the same number of hits per inning (92 in 100).

The chart calculates the same for walks and strikeouts as well, which likewise have been way off.

One the table, I do calculate an Inning pitched as 3 outs (at bats - hits). Even though that number in the 2020 season was actually 2.86 because in addition to batters making outs other outs are produced on the base paths or double plays or sacrifices. However because Statis-pro balks, wild pitches and passed balls sometimes take the place of outs for purposes of card calculations the 3.0 is very close. Many Statis-pro players mistakenly play a WP, PB and BK as no action when noone is on base, but really it needs to be treated as an "Out" with noone is on base or even if the "no" result came up on the next card.

Still my favorite game of all time, and the PB 2-7 and PB 2-6 cards have always been very close to accurate, the PB 2-9s have just always been way too good and the PB 2-5s way too bad.