Wednesday, September 18, 2019

How much pitchers can pitch in playoffs - study of last three years

In 2020, MLB will require relief pitchers to either complete the inning he is pitching, or pitch to at least three batters. Players of baseball board or computer games of all kinds know that deciding how often, when and how long pitchers can pitch is a great part of the fun of the game.

Executive Summary for how much we let pitchers throw:

Pitching in playoff gameRules for use in Next Game
Pitches for 2nd straight gameCannot Pitch
Pitch to at least 6 battersCannot Pitch
Pitch to 1 to 5 battersPB lowered by 1; max 8 batters between BOTH games
Regular season 1 of 2 games only(all regular season series are 2-games in our league)

In my regular season, I allow pitchers to finish the inning or pitch to either 3 or 4 pitchers - no more or no less - to make the game move along, so I've been a step ahead of MLB. I also only allowed each reliever to pitch one out of every two games - and I play all 2-game series to make it easy to keep track. If a pitcher is used in the first of two games then he is not available in the second game, but if not then you may as well use him if needed. This gives a very realistic maximum use of each pitcher over the course of a season.

However, in the playoffs pitchers are actually used more - so I did a study to decide how much to use them in my upcoming playoffs. I researched any pitcher who pitched at least half of the teams playoff games for any of the ALCS or NLCS teams (47 total pitchers, or an average of four pitchers for each of the 12 League Championship teams. The following lists the team, how many playoff games the team had that season, and how many of those games the pitcher was used and what percentage of games that represents.

The "RR" is a Statis-Pro term for tracking the reduction of a reliever's endurance for every time he allows a player to reach first, or allowed an earned run or inning ends, and this figure averaged 2.6 among these pitchers. The pitchers threw to an average of four batters in each of these games. Based on that, I am using these rules for playoff pitchers.

Here are the pitchers on which I based this number.

Pitched half PO GmsTEAMYearTeam GmsPitcher Gms% gamesAve. RRBatter/GmERA
Top 4 relievers each team12.58.064%
Brandon MorrowLAD2017151493%
Corey KnebelMIL201810990%
Roberto OsunaTOR20168788%
Kenley JansenLAD2017151387%
Aroldis ChapmanCHC2016161381%
Jeremy JeffressMIL201810880%
Brett CecilTOR20168675%
Joe BiaginiTOR20168675%
Tony WatsonLAD2017151173%
Matt BarnesBOS2018141071%
Carl Edwards Jr.CHC201710770%2.62.811.57
Joakim SoriaMIL201810770%
Josh HaderMIL201810770%
Mike MontgomeryCHC2016161169%
Ryan MadsonLAD2018161169%
Andrew MillerCLE2016151067%
Cody AllenCLE2016151067%
Ryan BrasierBOS201814964%
Craig KimbrelBOS201814964%
Joe KellyBOS201814964%
Joe BlantonLAD201611764%
Kenley JansenLAD201611764%
Pedro BaezLAD201611764%
Grant DaytonLAD201611764%
Lance McCullers Jr.HOU20188563%
Ryan PresslyHOU20188563%
Pedro BaezLAD2018161063%
Jason GrilliTOR20168563%
David RobertsonNYY201713862%
Kenta MaedaLAD201715960%
Corbin BurnesMIL201810660%
Travis WoodCHC201616956%
Kenley JansenLAD201816956%
Alex WoodLAD201816956%
Chris DevenskiHOU2017181056%
Tommy KahnleNYY201713754%
Eduardo RodriguezBOS201814750%
Wade DavisCHC201710550%
Brian DuensingCHC201710550%
Pedro StropCHC201710550%
Mike MontgomeryCHC201710550%6.05.816.62
Pedro StropCHC201616850%
Carl Edwards Jr.CHC201616850%
Collin McHughHOU20188450%
Roberto OsunaHOU20188450%
Dylan FloroLAD201816850%
Kenta MaedaLAD201816850%
Top 4 relievers each team12.58.064%


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