Wednesday, September 18, 2019

Baseball Board Game Results: 24 of 30 Teams Finish Within 2 Games of Actual MLB Win%

After playing 234 games with current 2019 rosters, the following were my standings. The tweak I've gone to over the years - which seems to provide even more realistic results with a truer test - is to count each game as a 3-game series. Normally the winning team is credited with 2 wins and the losing team with 1 win UNLESS the winning team lead by 5 or more runs after 8 innings without using their top reliever. A team has about a 14% chance of accomplishing this in any given game, the same chance a team has of winning all three games of a series.

For anyone who enjoys any baseball board game, you may want to try this. Here is a grid of games this season (still filling some in)

The following is each team's record (this is my NL year, the only AL games are interleague). For each team I list their record in my games - so the Dodgers went 55-32 - then I list how much better or worse this is than their actual MLB winning percentage through September 18 would dictate (the Dodgers went 55-32 in my game for a .632 winning percentage, which is actually one game below (-1) the 56-31 they would have played if they hit their actual MLB .645 winning percentage this season.

Twenty-four of 30 teams were within 2 games of where they would have expected to finish based on their actual MLB winning percentage - so I bolded the two that performed much better and four that performed worse in the board game than in real life.

Statis-Pro teamDivisionWinsLosses+ or - actualBoard gameWin%
Dodgers (Div)NL West5532-10.632
PadresNL West464170.529
GiantsNL West424220.500
DiamondbacksNL West3642-40.462
RockiesNL West263400.433
Nationals (Div)NL East523920.571
Braves (wc)NL East5140-50.560
Mets (wc)NL East504040.556
PhilliesNL East464400.511
MarlinsNL East223810.367
Cubs (Div)NL Central494100.544
BrewersNL Central4743-20.522
CardinalsNL Central4143-60.488
RedsNL Central3747-20.440
PiratesNL Central2535-10.417
Astros (Div)AL West75-10.583
MarinersAL West5700.417
RangersAL West57-10.417
AngelsAL West39-20.250
AthleticsAL West210-50.167
Yankees (Div)AL East75-10.583
Rays (wc)AL East76-10.538
Red SoxAL East67-10.462
BlueJaysAL East48-10.333
OriolesAL East4800.333
Indians (Div)AL Central9320.750
Twins (wc)AL Central7500.583
WhiteSoxAL Central5700.417
RoyalsAL Central4800.333
TigersAL Central4800.333
AL Record791030.434

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