Monday, April 8, 2019

UVa 2nd ever with 3 of top 20, brackets, ACC makes Final 4 in board game

Three final wrap up notes before UVa and Texas Tech wrap up the college basketball season; 1, the updated records calculate that UVa is the first team since the 2002 Duke team (Carlos Boozer, Jay Williams and Mike Dunleavy) to have three of the 20 Most Valuable Players in the country. Zion Williamson did pass Anthony Davis but not Coach K's top assistant Jon Scheyer who was worth 14.35 extra points a game in 2010.

RnkPlayerTeamValue AddConf
1Zion Williamson #1Duke14.08ACC
2Dedric Lawson #1Kansas12.21B12
3Matt Rafferty #32Furman12.07SC
4Cassius Winston #5Michigan St.11.74B10
5Brandon Clarke #15Gonzaga11.3WCC
6CJ Massinburg #5Buffalo11.06MAC
7Grant Williams #2Tennessee11.03SEC
8Ja Morant #12Murray St.10.9OVC
9Ty Jerome #11Virginia10.75ACC
10Myles Powell #13Seton Hall10.56BE
11RJ Barrett #5Duke10.23ACC
12Shamorie Ponds #2St. John's10.22BE
13Jordan Murphy #3Minnesota10.02B10
14Dylan Windler #3Belmont9.97OVC
15Kyle Guy #5Virginia9.7ACC
16Jeremiah Martin #3Memphis9.69Amer
17Jarrett Culver #23Texas Tech9.69B12
18Sam Merrill #5Utah St.9.58MWC
19De'Andre Hunter #12Virginia9.52ACC
20Ethan Happ #22Wisconsin9.45B10

2, We published eight approaches to filling in the bracket in the Western Journal, and if Virginia wins five of the eight will be above the 90th percentile. The system that picked UVa (and only 8 percent of all brackets did) selected them based on the Value Add rankings adjusted for experienced guards. It is interesting that this system could rise to the top - while the system picking the team with the most NBA talent was the one bracket to once again have a terrible year. It seems hard to win with one-and-dones.

3, The All-ACC team dominated the East in the Value Add Basketball dice game, and the incredible group of stars this year caught a rebuilding Big East to win the Eastern Bracket in the 32 Conference simulated tournament. The ACC beat the MEAC by 30 and Ivy League by 40, before Sharmorie Ponds (St. John's) and All-American Markus Howard (Marquette) hit three pointers on three straight trips to cut the ACC lead to 26-25, but the ACC took over after that. Auburn's Jared Harper is the starting point guard for the SEC and Purdue's Carsen Edwards for the Big Ten, so if they win the South and Midwest in the simulated games then perhaps they will beat Virginia's stars after such near misses in the tournament. Anyone can play simulated games for free here.

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