Wednesday, April 10, 2019

After testing the Value Add Basketball game we compared the actual margin to the difference in score the two teams would be expected to have based on their All-Star team's Value Add rankings.

The All-Star players from all 32 conferences averaged being on the court 51 of every 66 possessions during their regular seasons, but in All-Star games we were letting the top 5 All-Conference players play 44 possessions and then 2nd team play 22 possessions. When you adjust the overall Value Add Numbers by not playing as much as they did in the season, we would expect the ACC All-Star team to beat a team of all replacement players by 49 points - something like 90-41.

The Big Ten All-Star team projects to be next best, about 4 points worse than the ACC team. The SWAC All-Star team would project to lose to the ACC team by about 35 points, but still be about 14 points better than a team of replacement players.

In playing the games, we found the better team was winning by about 50% more than the should, meaning the game favors good teams by about 50% more than it should. We will tweak the competition figure for next year, but for the remainder of this season the most accurate results allowing or a range of chance, is to:

1. Start the game at 20-20 by the 7:54 box left in the first half.

2. But the 2nd team/reserves in the game first - by if you have fewer than 10 players you should look for a starter with the highest "possessions per game" figure to play the whole game. The first roll with reserves against reserves starts with the 7:17 left in the half box.

3. Play the reserves through half time, with their last roll being at 18:47 of the second half.

4. The starters should play the final 18:47 of the game, but if any one gets 3 fouls (to balance for the shorter game and the game not tallying non shooting fouls) has fouled out and should be replaced by one of the reserves who played the beginning.

5. If the game goes into overtime, start at the 5 minute mark.

Note: If keeping track of individual scorers at the end, you can allocated the extra 20 points on each team by giving all 10 players 10 points or giving more to the players with higher value adds and who started or trying to add proportionally.

Here is the breakdown of how many points worse than the ACC All-Star team each other Conference All-Star team would be if the dice rolls balanced off evenly.

Conf All-StarValue Add/MinPts worse than ACC
ACC49.000
B1045.33-4
SEC43.12-6
B1242.05-7
WCC40.43-9
BE40.41-9
Amer38.35-11
OVC36.16-13
P1235.67-13
A1034.92-14
SC34.45-15
MAC33.35-16
CAA30.52-18
MWC30.01-19
SB29.33-20
BSth28.87-20
CUSA27.58-21
Ivy26.77-22
MVC25.81-23
Pat25.54-23
Sum24.87-24
Horz24.34-25
AE23.64-25
BW23.35-26
ASun23.12-26
BSky22.28-27
WAC20.89-28
Slnd19.88-29
MEAC19.79-29
MAAC19.32-30
NEC16.77-32
SWAC14.30-35

No comments:

Post a Comment