Sunday, August 28, 2022

Orioles Blow Kremer's great start in Statis-Pro Opener

 The Orioles projected 2022 cards did not look nearly as good as their incredible play this season. However, Dean Kremer opened their first Statis-Pro game since being added to the league with a great 7 innings to leave with a 5-3 lead over the red hot Astros.

However, the pen could not hold it as the Astros rallied to win 9-5 in 11 innings, and then scored 6 runs in the first inning of the nightcap en route to a 10-1 sweep.

The Orioles officially start 1-5.






Statis-Pro Orioles Added as Series 10 for all 10 Teams

In light of the stunning and fantastic season, the Baltimore Orioles were added to our Statis-Pro League. We were in the 8th series for each team, meaning the 3rd and 4th starters for each team.

The Orioles home run ball park factor is 11-43, so 44-88 is a deep sac fly.

Each team was scheduled to play their 9th and final opponent in our 10 team league in a final series, but we wanted to round it out at 10 series to allow each team to run through it's 4-man rotation in the game five times.  We went ahead and figured out the starters for each game to make sure all teams also faced the fair number of Aces, as well as 2nd, 3rd and 4th best starters on opponents teams.

We updated our table of games and all results on this sheet, Here is the whole Orioles scheduled on top, following up with every teams remaining schedule before the playoffs.

Now that we know the schedule, we will play the 2-game series in any order. In our game relievers are allowed to pitch in one game in every two game series, so it doesn't matter the order of games.
 
VisitorHomeSeries
Kremer (Bal)Pivetta (Bos)Series 10
Wells (Bal)Hill (Bos)Series 10
Means (Bal)Giolito (CWS)Series 10
Akin (Bal)Kopech (CWS)Series 10
Kremer (Bal)Mckenzie (Cle)Series 10
Wells (Bal)Plesac (Cle)Series 10
Kremer (Bal)Garcia (Hou)Series 10
Wells (Bal)Javier (Hou)Series 10
Akin (Bal)Sandoval (LAA)Series 10
Kremer (Bal)Detmers (LAA)Series 10
Means (Bal)Gray (Min)Series 10
Wells (Bal)Bundy (Min)Series 10
Means (Bal)Cole (NYY)Series 10
Akin (Bal)Montas (NYY)Series 10
Means (Bal)Ray (Sea)Series 10
Akin (Bal)Castillo (Sea)Series 10
Means (Bal)Kluber (TBR)Series 10
Akin (Bal)Romero (TBR)Series 10
Kremer (Bal)Gausman (Tor)Series 10
Wells (Bal)White (Tor)Series 10
Pivetta (Bos)Detmers (LAA)Series 8
Hill (Bos)suarez (laa)Series 8
Eovaldi (Bos)Manoah (Tor)Series 9
Hill (Bos)Berrios (Tor)Series 9
Cease (CWS)McClanahan (TBR)Series 8
Lynn (CWS)Rasmussen (TBR)Series 8
Cease (CWS)Gilbert (Sea)Series 9
Lynn (CWS)Boyd (sea)Series 9
Mckenzie (Cle)Gilbert (Sea)Series 8
Plesac (Cle)Boyd (sea)Series 8
Bieber (Cle)King (NYY)Series 9
Quantrill (Cle)German (NYY)Series 9
Verlander (Hou)McClanahan (TBR)Series 9
McCullers (Hou)Rasmussen (TBR)Series 9
Ohtani (LAA)Ryan (Min)Series 9
suarez (laa)Ober (Min)Series 9
Ober (Min)Gausman (Tor)Series 8
Bundy (Min)White (Tor)Series 8

If both teams are mathematically eliminated from finishing in the top 6, then the series will not be played.

First Wild Card series will be 6th vs 3rd, and the other will be 5th vs. 4th.  = 3 game series.

The higher seed that advances will then play the 2nd seed, and the higher winner will play the regular season winner. = 7-game series.

Stat Check on Statis-Pro Season, and Pitcher Stats with Bieber as Cy Young Favorite

We have played 36 American League doubleheaders since created the 2022 projected Statis-Pro cards for this season. We track the results on this google sheet.

We double check a couple of things to see if the cards seem skewed to the offense or defense each year.

The most important stat we monitor is "sweeps." The MLB average is that 28% of all 3-game series are swept, while 72% are won by a team 2 games to 1. We try to mirror that with a league rule that if a team wins after leaving by at least 5 runs after 8 innings without using their best reliever, then they get credit for a 3-game sweep, while all other wins count as 2 games to 1 wins.

The good news on the sweeps is that they line up within 2%. In our 72 games to date, 19 were counted as sweeps - so 26.3% of all games.

The runs per game has been slightly high, with 679 runs scored in our 72 games for a total of 4.7 runs per game. That is higher than this seasons actual average of 4.3 runs per game, and even more than last year's 4.53 runs per game. 

2021 MLB2022 MLBStatis-Pro
Runs2201016331679
Games2429189872
Average4.534.34.71
3-game sweeps:28% 26.3%

We do not keep individual stats from our season, but based on our google sheet, we do run a pivot table to calculated each starting pitchers starts. The following table shows how many games each pitcher started, the average score of each game (Our top Cy Young candidate is likely Cleveland's Shane Bieber who averages winning 5.50 to 3.25). Then it lists each teams record in games in which that pitcher starter (Bieber's Guardians have been 8-4). 

In his four starts, the Guardians had two 3 games to 0 sweeps for a 10-3 win over Minnesota and 6-0 win over Tampa, another 6-3 win over the LA Angels to get credit for 2 wins and 1 loss, however he then lost a start against Houston 7-0 to absorb credit for 3 losses and 0 wins.
 
Row LabelsStartsRuns Sc    Runs AllWinsLosses
Eovaldi (Bos)44.50    5.7557
Hill (Bos)34.001.7763
Houck (Bos)45.002.0084
Pivetta (Bos)34.336.3336
Bieber (Cle)45.503.2584
Mckenzie (Cle)34.775.3345
Plesac (Cle)33.005.7736
Quantrill (Cle)44.504.0066
Banks (CWS)25.503.0042
Cease (CWS)35.336.0045
Cueto (CWS)12.007.0003
Giolito (CWS)26.506.0024
Keuchel (CWS)22.002.0024
Kopech (CWS)15.004.0021
Lopez (CWS)24.003.5033
Lynn (CWS)13.005.0012
Abreu (Hou)111.007.0021
Garcia (Hou)45.753.5084
Javier (Hou)110.001.0030
McCullers (Hou)13.004.0012
Odorizzi (Hou)32.778.0018
Uriquidy (Hou)14.006.0012
Valdez (Hou)15.003.0021
Verlander (Hou)45.255.7566
Detmers (LAA)38.335.7772
Loup (LAA)10.002.0012
Ohtani (LAA)45.508.7548
Sandoval (LAA)33.334.0045
Syndergaard (LAA)32.003.7745
Bundy (Min)31.332.7745
Gray (Min)45.507.0057
Ober (Min)111.005.0030
Paddack (Min)21.505.0033
Ryan (Min)49.003.0093
Cole (NYY)46.754.5084
German (NYY)33.333.7745
King (NYY)24.503.0042
Montas (NYY)12.000.0021
Montgomery (NYY)33.338.0045
Severino (NYY)35.002.3363
Castillo (Sea)12.009.0003
Flexen (Sea)35.005.0054
Gilbert (Sea)33.005.3336
Gonzalez (Sea)32.336.3327
Kirby (Sea)110.008.0021
Ray (Sea)46.755.2566
Baz (TBR)11.000.0021
Kluber (TBR)43.006.5039
McClanahan (TBR)35.334.7745
Rasmussen (TBR)32.772.7745
Romero (TBR)33.775.7736
Berrios (Tor)45.254.5075
Gausman (Tor)34.333.0054
Kukuchi (Tor)17.0011.0012
Manoah (Tor)38.005.3372
Ryu (Tor)25.502.0051
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Saturday, August 27, 2022

Astros Blast Yankees Out of 1st with 25 hits, dominant starters

 The new additions to the Astros line-up gave some punch with Vazquez singling his first two at bats in the no. 9 Spots, as they tagged the Yankees for 25 hits in two games. The Astros went 8-3 in their last 2 series.

The results are from the free Statis-Pro baseball game using the 2022 Batters cards, 2022 Pitcher cards from Arizona to Miami, and 2022 Pitcher cards from Milwaukee to Washington. When you see the term "sweep" in these accounts, it refers to our league rule that a team that wins a game in which they led by at least 5 runs without using their reliever with the best PB (2-9 is best, then 2-8, 2-7, 4-7, 2-6, 2-5 and the worst is 2-4). In our records, a SWEEP gives the team credit for 3 wins and 0 losses, while any other win is 2 games to 1. 


However, the bigger addition was pb 2-8 Lance McCullers finally off the 60 day DL to allow his card for the 1st time. He and Javier both had 11 strikeouts and only one run allowed between them in 12 innings. 

Javier's start resulted in a 10-1 sweep. McCullers had hard luck ad his relievers let the lead slip due to a Jose Altuve error (below average cd2) starting a 3-run rally in the 8th for a Yankees 4-4 win.


However, the Astros are the hottest team in the league, and after starting in 10th place have rallied to be in the playoffs for the first time if the season ended today.

The Astros would now be 5th and play the 4th place Twins, with the winner advancing to play the same Yankees, who fell to 2nd with the loss.



Thursday, August 25, 2022

Giolito Tough Luck Loss, then ChiSox rally in nightcap with 3 late HRs

White Sox ace Lucas Giolito finally debuted in our game, but had a tough luck loss as Toronto moved into 1st place with a 7-4 sweep win (led by 5 runs after 8 innings). 

Giolito should have had a 1-0 lead after 3 innings, but 2nd baseman Harrison (below average CD2) misplayed a grounder into a hit, and Guerrero then hit a 3-run homer.

More bad luck in the next inning, as Jansen hit a deep drive, and the 62 on the next card would have been a deep fly out in most parks, but was a HR in Toronto (an 11-68 home run park range). The Blue Jays received credit for a 3 games to 0 sweep for leading by 5 runs after 8 innings without using their closer.

The White Sox did rally in the second game to get credit for a 2 games to 1 win and thus lost the series just 2-4.

Trailing 3-0 in the top of the 7th, the Sox hit 3 homers in 8 batters (Grandal, Sheets and Anderson) for the win.

note - To make it easier to print Statis-Pro player cards based on 2022 projected stats, we broke the pitchers cards in half and changed everything to a PDF. To print player cards with each sheet containing only one team, click for the 2022 Batters, 2022 Pitchers from Arizona to Miami, and 2022 Pitchers from Milwaukee to Washington.




Thursday, August 18, 2022

Twins Blast Mariners in my return from a wedding and election win

Well, after being completely sidetracked by winning the Governor's primary in Wisconsin, and then a daughter getting married, I finally got back to the important things - Statis-Pro baseball!

Luis Castillo's Statis-Pro debut for Seattle  was a tough luck loss (5.2 IP, 2 ER), as the Mariners continue to joining Tampa Bay at the bottom of the 10-team league 10 games out of first.

The top of the Twins lineup, Buxton and Correa, started 6 of 7 to lead a 9-2 sweep in the opener. In the second game Joe Ryan gave a second straight quality start for the Twins to win 3-1. Sonny Gray won the opener, and the Twins Achilles heel of a very week bullpen did not cost them either game.

The twins are now just 2 games out of 1st. Here are the standings and score sheet for the 2 game series.




Wednesday, August 17, 2022

PDF Versions of Statis-Pro Player Cards for 2022 Rosters

To make it easier to print Statis-Pro player cards based on 2022 projected stats, we broke the pitchers cards in half and changed everything to a PDF. To print player cards with each sheet containing only one team, click for the 2022 Batters, 2022 Pitchers from Arizona to Miami, and 2022 Pitchers from Milwaukee to Washington.