Monday, July 9, 2018

Central Division – the 10 Greatest Baseball Teams

The 1984 Tigers' line-up is the best ever against left-handed pitchers with Lance Parrish, Chet Lemon, Barbaro Garbey and Larry Herndon destroying lefties. However, I started them with their toughest possible opponent in the 1906 Cubs Mordecai Brown (26-6, 1.04 righty) who managed to strand 10 tigers including Alan Trammell and Lou Whitaker 5 times. Despite Kirk Gibson gunning one runner out at home the Evers to Tinker to Chance defense held up for a 1-0 win.
  1. Detroit Tigers, 1984, I rank this team the best to come out of my "Central" on the strength of how dominant they showed they were with a 35-5 start to the season that let them cruise, and thus not rack up the stats and run deferential I they would have if they had to fight all year to make the playoffs. By the time K. Gibson blasted Goose Gossage's pitch into the upper level to clinch a 4-1 World Series win it was clear this team was an all-time great, as A. Trammell took MVP on a loaded team. Of course, fans could choose to include instead C. Gehringer's 1935 champs or D. McLain's 1968 champs - both of whom put up even better run differentials - but the overall record and eye test make this team the best Tigers' squad and best out of my "Central" region ever.
  2. Pittsburgh Pirates, 1902, H.Wagner's 1902 Pirates may have been the greatest to ever come out of my "Central," as they went 103-36 - unfortunately just before the World Series was invented. There 5.5 to 3.1 average score projects a 76% winning percentage, the best except for the 1906 Cubs, who then lost the World Series. You could also choose K. Cuyler's 1925 squad or Willie Stargell's 1971 squad that both won World Series 4 games to 3.
  3. Cleveland Indians, 1948, L.Boudreau's last Indians World Series champs actually came in 2nd to the New York Yankees when I played off all 40 teams and averaging winning games 5.4 to 3.6 is the most dominant mark ever, and six years later the Indians put up what is still the best winning percentage since 1910 before falling in the World Series. The heartbreaking loss for Albert Belle's 1995 team and Corey Kluber's team last year are two of the most dominant teams ever not to win a title.
  4. Chicago Cubs, 1907, O.Overall's Cubs followed up the disappointment of losing the 1906 World Series after the best record and run differential ever with a 1907 World Series sweep. I will actually use the 1906 advanced cards that were already produced. These actually are the stronger cards since that team had the greatest run differential in history - so while I try to go for actually championship years like 1907, the 1906 has the best chance to beat the Tigers and others.
  5. Chicago White Sox, 1917, E.Cicotte's squad put together one of the great champions ever just two years before the Black Sox scandal. While M. Buerhle's 2005 World Series title was a great scrappy win, it honestly featured two of the weakest World Series teams in history.
  6. Minnesota Twins, 1965, Z.Versalles Twins team that lost to the Dodgers in seven games is actually stronger than the teams that pulled off surprising World Series wins in 1987 and 1991. The Twins lost only because Sandy Koufax pitched The Twins scored 18 runs in the 34 innings Sandy Koufax was NOT on the mound - but Koufax had an 0.38 ERA in his three starts. You could try your hand with Frank Viola's team - the only team to win a World Series despite being outscored during the regular season as a very marginal, but clutch team in a very weak division.
  7. Kansas City Royals, 1977, G.Brett's Hall of Fame dominance made this the best overall Royals team ever, though you could certainly choose to play the 2015 World Series' champs led by L. Cain instead.
  8. Milwaukee Braves, 1957, H.Aaron's one World Series champion before the Braves headed to Atlanta and he went on to become the Home Run King makes this the best team from Milwaukee, by a hair.
  9. Milwaukee Brewers, 1982, R.Yount did enough to give the Brewers the World Series in the all-time power vs. speed (Cardinals) series - and if Rollie Fingers was not injured one must suspect this team would have also pulled out the exciting World Series. However, I need to give the 1957 Milwaukee Braves the edge because they did have a better overall record (0.617 to 0.586) in addition to pulling off the World Series.
  10. Kansas City Athletics, 1958, B.Cerv led the Kansas City Athletics their one decent team in between the great years in Philadelphia and Oakland. They did not play .500 even in this, their best year, thus ranking last in my "Central" region but rounding out a 10-team all-time division.

Friday, July 6, 2018

NL All-Star Considerations

The main NL season is being played in Montana, with 8 teams competing and 7 teams relegated for this season. The following are the records and best performers in that gae:

Chicago          11-4
Milwaukee      10-5
St. Louis          9-6
Washington     7-8
Colorado         7-8
Los Angeles     6-9
New York        6-9
Arizona           6-9


Top Performers: David Peralta, Arz (19-39 .487) DJ LaMahieu, Col (19-47 .404) Matt Carpenter, Stl 5 HR Gerardo Parra, Col 11 RBI Anthony Rendon, Wsh 11 RBI Jose Martinez, Stl 11 Runs Scored Kyle Hendricks, Chi (3-0, 2.45) Who is not: Bryce Harper, Wsh (3-34, 0 HR, 0 RBI) Stephen Strasburg, Wsh (0-3, 4.75)

Here are the NL players who have the most MVP points just in the games played with the AL. Nine points are awarded each game to three players, in any combination (a dominant player can get a max of 5, leaving either 3 for the 2nd best star and 1 for the 3rd best star, or it can be 5-2-2, 3-3-3, 4-3-2 etc). The bolded players are ones playing for teams NOT playing with the eight teams above.

To date, each NL team only played twice, and with the ace and 4th best starting pitcher, but the St. Louis Cardinals have played four games. The other 14 teams will all play a second 2-game series with the DH spot used.


2ndStarMVP ptsDetails of game(s) getting stars
OzunaStL11HR and 2b (4), 4 of 5, double (3), 4 hits, 2B (2)walk, homer (2)
AvilaAri5def gem, 2 homers
C. Martinez StlStL5lost no hitter 2 outs in 8th
CastilloCin5complete game shutout
CespadesNYM5HR, 2b, 2 w, 3 run
ChacinMil57 ip 2r
ContrerasChiC5HR,3 of 4, w, 2 rbi, 2 ru
DesmondCol5inside-the-park GS Homer, 3-run homer
MolinaStL54 of 5, 3-run homer
RizzoChiC53 of 3, 2w, 2b, 3 rbi
ArrietaAri46.2 ip, 1 run
BarnhartCin4TA cs Trout, 2b, 1b
DeitrichMia43 of 4, w, 3 runs
GreinkeAri48 ip 2 runs
HarrisonPit42 homers
HirianoAri4save, perfect 9th Gattis, Springer, Bregman (3 pt), 3 ip, 0 r (1 pt)
IncarteAtl43 straight 1b, SB
McCutcheonSF43 of 4, HR, 3 rbi, 2 r
ReedMil43.2 ip 0
SantanaPhi42 of 3, homer, def gem
Sotu...Was43 of 4, double
BourMia32b, hr, 4 rbi
ConforteNYM3HR, 2b
FreesePit33 of 4, 2b, walk (2 pt)pinch hit 2b (1 pt)
GrossMil32-run HR, 1b
GyorkaStL31b, 2 def gems, threw Fowler out 5-2, then clutch DP on Olson next batter
HerreraPhi33 of 5, diving catch
HeywardChiC33 of 4, 2b, 3 rbi
IanettaCol33 of 4, HR
KershawLAD3shutout into 9th
MurphyWas33b, 2 of 3, 2 r
ScheblerCin33 hits
ScherzerWas38 ip 1
VottoCin33 of 4, 2 doubles
DoolittleWas22 ip, 0 r Win, Extra
GardnerPhi2diving catch save 2 runs
HandSD21.1 ip perfect
HarperWas22 of 4, 2b, 2 r
J. Martinez StLStL24 hits, HR
McCannAtl22 doubles, 2 w, 2 run
UrenaMia28 ip 3 run
AndersonMil17 ip 2 run
BeckhamMil1HR, 1b
BellingerLAD1HR, 1b, SF
BruceNYM13 hits, homer
GrandalLAD13-run homer
HirianoAri13 ip, 0 r
ParraCol14 of 5, 2b
PoseySF13 hits, double
StoreCol1HR, 1b

Statis-Pro All-Star Selections Finalized - All-Star result and composite box

NL Wins All-Star Series two games to one with two cliffhanger wins

Game 1 (NL 4, AL 3) – As soon as Clayton Kershaw was gone, Carlos Correa’s homer and Gary Sanchez rbi as part of a 2 of 3 days gave the NL a 2-1 lead and a 7-3 edge in hits through three innings that held up into the 7th inning.

However, a 2-run homer by the Cubs’ Anthony Rizzo and solo shot by the Rockies Trevor Story rallied the NL in the 7th and 8th to take a dramatic 4-2 lead with Corey Knebel striking out the side in between for the win and the Cubs Brandon Morrow pitching through an error, walk and hit in the 9th for a dramatic opening game win.

Game 2 (NL 2, AL 1 in 12 innings) Brandon Morrow appeared ready to wrap up a Game 2 shutout when the NLs great defense (3b Arenado throwing a runner out at home, and Molina throwing Trout out stealing) was replaced with a dropped line drive at first base by Posey and a rare bobbled pitch by Molina to let a runner get to third who then scored an unearned run to force extra innings.

However, Herrera doubled in the top of the 12th and Parra’s sac fly to right clinched the series with a 2-1 12th inning run once Hendricks worked the 11th and 12th for a win as he induced Judge to ground into a double play to end the 11th and Altuve to strikeout to end the game.

Game 3 (AL 5, NL 2) Gary Sanchez was moved in front of Adrian Beltre in the lineup for Game 3 – and belted a homer-hitting after Yankees teammate Aaron Judge to spark the AL to salvage a game. Justin Verlander pitched three scoreless innings, and Mike Moustakas came off the bench to drive in two more runs for a 5-0 lead.

The NL did get to Ranger Alex Claudio to cut the lead to 5-2, but the Indians-Red Sox combo of Andrew Miller and Craig Kimbrel was once again shut down to get the Hold and the Save to salvage the final of the three games and actually give the AL the better run differential.

While the NL won the series on two cliffhangers, the AL not only had a 9-8 edge in run differential in the three-game series and destroyed the NL in the futures game 7-2 as Ohtani went three shut out innings for the win. Tampa’s Field hit two homers for 5 RBIs, and the Yankees Austin had two runs and doubles on a three of four day, and the White Sox Palka added a single and an RBI triple.

Here is the composite box for the All-Star Games:

PosAll-Start Line-UpTeamABHHRRBIRNotes
CFGeorge SpringerHou71000
SSCarlos CorreaHou72111
DHMike TroutLA71001
RFAaron JudgeNY82001
3BAdrian BeltreTex51000
CGary SanchezNY73121Gm 3 HR in win
2BRobinson CanoSea51000
1BEdwin EncarnacionCle63001
LFAndrew BenintendiBos51000
PosReservesTeamABHHRRBIRNotes
2BJose AltuveHou71000
SSJeimer CandelarioDet20000
CWellington CastilloChi62001
RFShin-Soo ChooTex41010
CFDelino DeShieldsTex10000
CFDustin FowlerOak10000
RFAvisail GarciaChi40000
1BJohn HicksDet21000
CFKevin KiermaierTB60001
3BFrancisco LindorCle10000
3B-SSManny MachadoBal51001
CRussell MartinTor00000
1BJoe MauerMin40010
LFWhit MerrifieldKC30000
SSMike MoustakasKC310212 RBI in Gm 3 win
P-DHShohei OhtaniLA10000
2BDustin PedroiaBos00000
PitchersIPHRERBBK
Gm 1Corey KluberCle231102
Gm 2Shohei OhtaniLAA321117
Gm 3Justin VerlanderHou320011Gm 3 win
Alex ClaudioTex474406Gm 1 loss
Dallas KeuchelHou310004
Craig KimbrelBos310004Gm 3 save
Mike LeakeSea341102Gm 2 loss
Andrew MillerCle431126Gm 3 hold
Chris SaleBos420014
PosAL All-Star Line-upTeamABHHRRBIRNotes
RFGerardo ParraCol56011Gm 2 GW SF in 12th
2BDJ LaMahieuCol45000
DHJoey VottoCin72111Gm 2 HR
1BCody BellingerLA51010
3BNolan ArenadoCol111000
CFMichael ConfortoNY41000
SSCorey SeagerLA50000
LFDavid PeraltaArz50000
CYadier MolinaStl80000
PosReservesTeamABHHRRBIRNotes
2B-3B-1BMatt CarpenterStl00000
1BFreddie FreemanAtl31000
2BScooter GennettCin71000
CFOdubel HerreraPhl2100112th in 2b, GW R Gm 2
CFEnder InciarteAtl41000
CFAndrew McCutchenSF70000
CFAJ PollockArz51001
CBuster PoseySF63020last 2 RBIs, rally short
1BAnthony RizzoChi21121
SSTrevor StoryCol53112
1BRyan ZimmermanWas43001
StartedAL PitchersTeamIPHRERBBKNotes
Gm 1Clayton KershawLA240001
Gm 2Chase AndersonMil310001
Gm 3Carlos MartinezStl321114Gm 3 Loss
Jake ArrietaPhl241004
Luis CastilloCin130000
Josh HaderMil110001
Brad HandSD200002
Kyle HendricksChi210002Gm 2 W, 11th-12th
Yoshihisa HiranoArz300024
Raisel IglesiasCin200011
Corey KnebelMil200005Gm 2 Win
Brandon MorrowChi332015Gm 2 Save
Hector NerisPhl133311G3 collapse
Jose UrenaMia000000
Felipe VazquezPit310002




We are adding the NL Statis-Pro All-Stars atop the previously announced AL squad - and will play a best of 3 after a futures game:

NL All-Star Selections
Starters
C-Yadier Molina, Stl (this AL announced their decision not to steal or take any leads until he is replaced)
1B-Cody Bellinger, LA
2B-DJ LaMahieu, Col
SS-Corey Seager, LA
3B-Nolan Arenado, Col
LF-David Peralta, Arz
CF-Michael Conforto, NY
RF-Gerardo Parra, Col

Reserves
Matt Carpenter, Stl
AJ Pollock, Arz
Scooter Gennett, Cin
Joey Votto, Cin
Freddie Freeman, Atl
Ender Inciarte, Atl
Odubel Herrera, Phl
Andrew McCutchen, SF
Buster Posey, SF
Anthony Rizzo, Chi
Trevor Story, Col

Pitchers
Chase Anderson, Mil
Carlos Martinez, Stl
Clayton Kershaw, LA
Kyle Hendricks, Chi
Corey Knebel, Mil
Brandon Morrow, Chi
Yoshihisa Hirano, Arz
Josh Hader, Mil
Jake Arrieta, Phl
Luis Castillo, Cin
Raisel Iglesias, Cin
Jose Urena, Mia
Brad Hand, SD
Felipe Rivero, Pit
Hector Neris, Phl

The current standings.

Chicago       13-5
Milwaukee   12-6
Colorado     10-8
St. Louis       9-8
Washington  8-9
Los Angeles 7-10
Arizona       7-10
New York    7-11

Who's Hot (and headed to the All-Star Game)
No surprise that the leading offense produces the hottest bats.

In their last 18-games...(leading the league in hits)
Gerardo Parra (31-75,  .413, 3 HR, 15 RBI)
DJ LaMahieu  (31-79,  .392, 2 HR, 10 RBI, 18 R)
Power leader comes from the Mets only bright spot
Michael Conforto last 15 games, (.300, 7 HR, 15 RBI)

Who's Not
Bryce Harper, last 17 games, (10-63, .159, 1 HR, 4 RBI)
Yoenis Cespedes, last 17 games (1 HR, 5 RBI)

Who's Hot (Pitchers)
Last 5 starts
Carlos Martinez, Stl.  (4-0, 1.32)
Chase Anderson, Mil (4-0, 1.57)
Clayton Kershaw, LA (4-1, 2.19)
Kyle Hendricks, Chi  (5-0, 3.33)

Who's Not
Zach Wheeler, NY  (0-5, 5.46)
Hyun-jin Ryu, LA  (0-4, 6.33)


AL All-Stars

The Statis-Pro AL All-Star team is finalized, and the top three stars of each of the first 100 games played to date are tracked on this google doc. This link features my preview of the actual season for each division, based on the best new Statis-Pro player cards with hitting, fielding and the best clutch defensive players. Those new players fill the 2018 rosters alongside the 2017 cards of returning players on 2018 rosters in Statis-Pro games (free version to play your own here). Updated standings through 36 games at the bottom.


StarterPosition2nd string3rd string4th5th
Sanchez NY2-CCastillo ChiMartin Tor
Encarnacion Cle3-1bHicks DetMauer Min
Cano Sea4-2bAltuve HouPedroia Bos
Beltre Tex5-3bMoustakas KCCandelario Det
Correa Hou6-ssLindor CleMachado Bal
Benintendi Bos7-lfMerrifield KC(use a CF)
Springer Hou8-cfTrout LADeShields TexFowler OakKiermaier TB
Judge NY9-rfA Garcia ChiChoo Tex
Kluber Cle1-P-rightOhtani LAKimbrel Bos (Closer)Verlander HouLeake Sea
(None, all relief)1-P-leftSale BosMiller Cle (Set-up)Keuchel HouClaudio TX
Ohtani LA, then pitch10-DH

The Statis-Pro AL All-Star team is finalized. Keep in mind, we are playing the season using cards based on last year's stats (thus Tampa's awesome center fielder who also hit well last year has a very strong card and has done well in Statis-Pro play despite going through a terrible first half slump in the actual season). We also play the best players and ignore injuries or suspensions and based these selections on the limited 12-game stats in the game, and thus Seattle's Robinson Cano, who is actually serving an 80-game suspension, is selected first team for having better stats than the Astros Jose Altuve, who has a better card from last year.

The Astros, Yankees and Indians all have two starters. Keep in mind every team needs at least one of the 34 players, which threw a wrinkle into the selections when Steve Pearce appeared to be the Toronto Blue Jays rep until he was traded to the Red Sox - which worked out ok because Toronto's catch Russell Martin slid in as the 3rd team catcher after a solid season last year and strong start in Statis-Pro, even though like Kiermaier he has actually started out terribly this season.

One trick for managing the All-Star game with this team - Japanese sensation Shohei Ohtani could either be the 2nd best right-handed pitcher on the team behind All-Star starter Corey Kluber (not counting Boston closer Craig Kimbrel), but he has also been the best Designated Hitter in the league. If he pitches AND hits then the AL loses the DH for the whole game. Because All-Star teams have a 34-man roster for just one game and can pinch hit every time the pitcher comes up, my plan is to have Kluber start and then let Ohtani pinch hit and come into pitch - using pinch hitters the rest of the game whenever the pitcher comes up since pitchers only pitch and inning or two in the All-Star game anyway.

Here are the standings to date. I was basing the All-Star selections on a system of picking the top three stars for each of the games played - which show up as 36 games because under my system each game counts as three games the winning team winning the "series" two games to one unless they win by at least five runs - in which case they are awarded a three games to none sweep. While a few teams still have a 2-game (worth 6 games) to play, I played until a point at which the 34-man roster would not change no matter what the results of the last few games. (Washington Nationals won 4 of 6 against the White Sox to push them behind the Indians (who face nearby Pittsburgh next) in the AL Central. This was the first interleague series played with the DH, and the other games listed below will be as well before the return to AL play.


AL TeamWLGBWin%New OpponentIF playoffs today
Houston251100.694MilwaukeeAL West Pennant
New York2313-20.639NY MetsAL East Pennant
Boston2115-40.583CincinnatiWild Card host
Chicago2220-60.523Washington
Cleveland2016-50.556PittsburghAL Central Pennant
Baltimore2016-50.556Chicago CubsWild Card visitor
Seattle1917-60.528San Diego
Kansas City1719-80.472Atlanta
Oakland1620-90.444Colorado
Minnesota1422-110.389Philadelphia
Los Angeles1422-110.389Miami
Tampa Bay1422-110.389NL
Texas1422-110.389LA Dodgers
Toronto1323-120.361Arizona
Detroit1323-120.361San Francisco

Sunday, June 24, 2018

Baseball Previews and Free Statis Pro Baseball Game to Manage Teams For Fun

Click here to read my six baseball breakdowns of the AL East, NL East and NL Central (already posted) and the AL Central, AL West and NL West (coming soon). Will Shohei Ohtani and Clayton Kershaw recover 100 percent and lead both Los Angeles teams to catch-up and make the playoffs?

Further breakdowns include the new Statis Pro player cards that indicate behind Ohtani, the New York Yankees have the second, third and 10th best new players this season (click here for top 20 and actual player cards). You can also click to see the best fielders and how they save runs, and even play the Statis Pro Board game for free to match-up these current or past teams here.





Wednesday, June 20, 2018

Cubs Wish List - Elite Pitcher to Replace Arrieta and Hold Off Improved Brewers in NL Central

If the Chicago Cubs pick up an elite starting pitcher or two to make up for losing Jake Arrieta, they could have the final piece to a return to the World Series two years after winning it all. The Cubs line-up is by far the best in the division, but the Milwaukee Brewers improved in the offseason and are good enough at everything else to contend, and the St. Louis Cardinals pitching gives them a chance if they can pull off trade or two.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are a prototype average across-the-board, while the Cincinnati Reds are unfortunately weak in all aspects and unfortunately could part with one superstar.

Explanation of Ratings: We start by rating each team on a base 20 scale, with a 10-point scale for batting, 5-point scale for starting pitching, 3-point scale for relief pitching and 2-point scale for fielding. This was done by reviewing personnel and results to date and playing simulated games through Statis-Pro baseball (free version here), weighing pitching and batting stats by the team's home ballpark, reviewing which fielders on each team were nominated for a gold glove either of the past two seasons and evaluating all new players. We then assess the new players acquired and present the weaknesses that might be addressed by the July trade deadline. 

Chicago (15.0 of 20) - While the three elite teams all appear to be in the AL in the Yankees, Astros and Red Sox, the Cubs are strong in all four areas that they could contend and match up pretty closely if they make the World Series. If the Cubs can get another top starter or two like Tyson Ross (SD) or Chris Archer (TB), they could truly be a contender.    

Batters (6.9 of 10) - The Cubs stayed pat with a strong line-up.    

Starters (3.6 of 5) - With the loss of Jake Arrieta to the Phillies, the Cubs might need to add Tyson Ross (SD) or Chris Archer (TB) before the trade deadline to truly have the elite rotation to potentially go all the way.  - The gamble assuming Tyler Chatwood would pitch well making the move from the altitude of Colorado to Wrigley, and the rotation is solid but not quite elite. If Yu Darvish comes back strong once off DL it will help as well.           

Relievers (2.0 of 3) - Adding Steve Cishek from Tampa Bay was a big addition to a pen that already included Brandon Morrow and can certainly shut an opponent down for at least a couple of innings.

Fielding (1.8 of 2) - Contender for the best fielders in baseball with Jason Heyward in RF, and Anthony Rizzo (1b), Ben Zobrist (2b) and Addison Russell (ss) all gold glove nominees.

Milwaukee (13.3 of 20) - On paper, the Brewers made substantial moves to improve the line-up, starting pitchers and relievers - and the great defensive improvement in the outfield helps make them a legit playoff contender. They may still need to add a battery like Cole Hamels and Jonathan Lucroy to beat out the Cubs in the end, but they are right there.

Batters (4.2 of 10) - The additions of Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich give the Brewers a strong first five hitters - through the line-up is still not as deep as other playoff contenders.     
    
Starters (4.5 of 5) - The pickup of Jhoulys Chacin rounds out what could be a fantastic starting rotation.           

Relievers (3.0 of 3) - The pickup of Albers from the Nationals was expected to make a great pen even stronger, but it's been the pickup of Jeremy Jeffres added to the already great pen that - if healthy and living up to its potential -  could make it the best in the majors.              Fielding 1.0 of 2. In addition to their great bats, the additions of Gold Glove nominees  Cain and Yelich transform the Brewers from a poor to a solid fielding team.

St. Louis (11.8 of 20) - The Cardinals are certainly solid, but with an average lineup and above average pitching and fielding, they still do not look like they have the overall talent to beat out the Cubs or even the Brewers.  

Batters (5.0 of 10) - The Cardinals appeared to be a bit below average until they won the rest of the Marlins' sweepstake by signing one of the top hitters in the game last year in Marcell Ozuna.      
    
Starters (2.1 of 3) - A solid rotation left in place.   Relievers (2.1 of 3) - Greg Holland coming from the Rockies seemed like a good bet but has not panned out yet - but this bullpen was and is still loaded.

Fielding (1.1 of 2) - The Marlins Marcell Ozuna is not only a huge addition in the line-up but adds another Gold Glove nominee in the outfield to join perhaps the most dominant defender in the game - catcher Yadier Molina.

Pittsburgh (9.7 of 20) - The Pirates are almost exactly average across-the-board, from their starting pitching to their pen, to their batters. The only spot they are below average is in the field, and that is partly because a great glove at third base is on the bench a good bit due to a great new bat.

Batters (5.1 of 10) - The big addition to the lineup is slugging third baseman Colin Moran, who along with former Tampa Bay outfielder Corey Dickerson makes the line-up above average.     
     
Starters (2.5 of 5) - The addition of Astro Joe Musgrove as a starter helps the rotation just a bit to make them almost exactly average.

(Relievers 1.5 of 3) - The addition of Kyle Click from the Giants is a nice addition but still leaves the pen just average overall.      

Fielding (0.6 of 2) - The only problem with Molin hitting so well is that he puts Gold Glove nominee David Freese on the bench for most games, leaving Starling Marte (LF) as the only nominee on the field.

Cincinnati (5.1 of 20) -  Scooter Gennett is providing a third big bat, but if he is traded away then the Reds could finish at the bottom as they are weak throughout except for strong fielding and one nice addition in the bullpen.  Batters (2.9 of 10) - If Scooter Gennett is traded it will take the Reds down to just a couple of big bats and not a lot of punch in many spots.         

Starters (1.2 of 5) Picking up Matt Harvey after his rough season with the Mets may be working out and Anthony James DeSclafani looks like an adequate starter - but the rotation is still a big weakness even prior to assuming Harvey is traded.          

Relievers (0.8 of 3) - Jared Hughes was a great pickup from the Brewers, but beyond him, the pen is suspect despite a couple of players having decent starts.    
     
Fielding (1.8 of 2) - For all their weaknesses, the Reds may have the best defense in baseball with 4 Gold Glove nominees in C Tucker Barnhart, 1b Joey Votto, LF Adam Duvall, and of course the amazing cf Billy Hamilton for whom contenders must be considering offers.

Monday, June 18, 2018

The 81 Clutch Defensive Players based on recent Gold Glove nominations

One part of the Statis-Pro game that was dated was the reliance merely on double plays to determine if a player was a clutch defensive player. While modern stats measure defensive Wins Above Replacement figures, on fielding I still rely on the gold glove votes by managers and coaches to determine which players get the highest mark - the Clutch Defense 4 that allows for diving catches that can save games.

The following is the scale I use:

CD1 (the lowest Clutch Defense Rating) is given to any player with a negative Rdrs/year (see Standard Fielding for the player at https://www.baseball-reference.com/).

CD2 (average Clutch Defense Rating) is given to any player with at least a 0 Rdrs/year rating.

CD3 (good Clutch Defense Rating) is given to any Pitcher or Catcher with at least a 5 Rdrs/yr, any infielder with at least a 7.5 Rdrs/yr rating, and any outfielder with at least a 10 Rdrs/yr rating.

CD4 (excellent Clutch Defense Rating) is given to any player who was nominated for a gold glove in the last two years (all 81 such players are listed by team below). If a player nominated, disregard the Rdrs/yr rating as this means the coaches and managers from the league view the player as one of the best 3 in his league at his position. The only other time I award a CD4 is if a new player, who has not yet had a chance to be voted on as a gold glove nominee, registers a Rdrs/yr rating of twice what they need to be a CD 3 (so 10 for C/P, 15 for Infielders and 20 for outfielders).

The CD1 player can never try for a clutch play in the game, but the following are the results for the other players when a Clutch Defense opportunity occurs with men on base, and below that are the 81 CD4 gold glove nominees.


CD1 = no play madeCD Clutch DefenseChance for Great Play
Infielders resultCD2 on cardCD3 or 4 on Card but NOT on list belowOn Gold Glove list below (treated as CD4)
Line out, lead runner doubled off base11 to 2111 to 4211 to 56
Grounder, lead runner thrown out22 to 3243 to 5557 to 78
No action, return to normal play33 to 8856 to 8881 to 88
Outfielders onlyCD2 on cardCD3 or 4 on Card but NOT on list belowOn Gold Glove list below (treated as CD4)
Line out in gap, lead runner doubled off base11 to 2111 to 4211 to 56
Line out, runners get back safely22 to 3243 to 5557 to 78
No action, return to normal play33 to 8856 to 8881 to 88
Catchers OnlyCD2 on cardCD3 or 4 on Card but NOT on list belowOn Gold Glove list below (treated as CD4)
Diving catch of pop up, lead runner doubled off base11 to 3211 to 5511 to 78
No Action33 to 8856 to 8881 to 88


TEAMGold Glove Nominee 2017 or 18Position

ArizonaPaul GoldschmidtFirst Base
ArizonaZack GreinkePitcher
AtlantaEnder InciarteCenter Field
AtlantaNick MarkakisRight Field
BaltimoreAlex CobbPitcher
BaltimoreChris DavisFirst Base
BaltimoreColby RasmusLeft Field
BaltimoreManny MachadoThird Base
BostonChris SalePitcher
BostonDustin PedroiaSecond Base
BostonJackie Bradley Jr.Center Field
BostonMitch MorelandFirst Base
BostonMookie BettsRight Field
Chicago CubsAddison RussellShortstop
Chicago CubsAnthony RizzoFirst Base
Chicago CubsBen ZobristSecond Base
Chicago CubsJason HeywardRight Field
CincinnatiAdam DuvallLeft Field
CincinnatiBilly HamiltonCenter Field
CincinnatiJoey VottoFirst Base
CincinnatiTucker BarnhartCatcher
ClevelandFrancisco LindorShortstop
ClevelandJose RamirezThird Base
ClevelandYan GomesCatcher
ColoradoCarlos GonzalezRight Field
ColoradoDJ LeMahieuSecond Base
ColoradoGerardo ParraLeft Field
ColoradoNolan ArenadoThird Base
DetroitIan KinslerSecond Base
DetroitJames McCannCatcher
DetroitJose IglesiasShortstop
Free AgentR.A. DickeyPitcher
HoustonDallas KeuchelPitcher
HoustonGeorge SpringerRight Field
HoustonJustin VerlanderPitcher
Kansas CityAlex GordonLeft Field
Kansas CitySalvador PerezCatcher
LA AngelsAndrelton SimmonsShortstop
LA AngelsJustin UptonLeft Field
LA AngelsKole CalhounRight Field
LA AngelsMartin MaldonadoCatcher
LA DodgersCorey SeagerShortstop
LA DodgersJustin TurnerThird Base
LA DodgersYasiel PuigRight Field
MilwaukeeChristian YelichLeft Field
MilwaukeeLorenzo CainCenter Field
MilwaukeeZach DaviesPitcher
MinnesotaBrian DozierSecond Base
MinnesotaByron BuxtonCenter Field
NY YankeesAaron JudgeRight Field
NY YankeesBrett GardnerLeft Field
NY YankeesGiancarlo StantonRight Field
OaklandJonathan LucroyCatcher
PhiladelphiaCarlos SantanaFirst Base
PhiladelphiaJake ArrietaPitcher
PhiladelphiaOdubel HerreraCenter Field
PittsburghDavid FreeseThird Base
PittsburghStarling MarteLeft Field
San DiegoEric HosmerFirst Base
San DiegoFreddy GalvisShortstop
San DiegoWil MyersFirst Base
San FranciscoBrandon CrawfordShortstop
San FranciscoBuster PoseyCatcher
San FranciscoEvan LongoriaThird Base
San FranciscoJoe PanikSecond Base
Seattle

Seattle
Jean Segura
Dee Gordon
Second Base
Second Base
SeattleKyle SeagerThird Base
SeattleRobinson CanoSecond Base
St. LouisAdam WainwrightPitcher
St. LouisMarcell OzunaLeft Field
St. LouisYadier MolinaCatcher
Tampa BayKevin KiermaierCenter Field
TexasAdrian BeltreThird Base
TexasCarlos PerezCatcher
TexasElvis AndrusShortstop
TorontoKevin PillarCenter Field
TorontoMarcus StromanPitcher
WashingtonAdam EatonRight Field
WashingtonAnthony RendonThird Base
WashingtonMichael TaylorCenter Field

Friday, June 15, 2018

Ohtani, then Yankees Produce Best New Cards for Statis Pro Game


If you want to get the 2017 Statis Pro player cards on EBay below are free copies of the cards for new players who did not bat at least 50 times or pitch 20 innings last year. The following are the top 20 new players based on these cards;

1) Ohtani, P-DH LA Angels; 2) Torres, 2b NY Yankees; 3) Austin, 1b NY Yankees; 4) Kittredge, P Tampa Bay;5) Fowler, OF Oakland; 6) Moran, 3b Pittsburgh; 7) Villanueva, 3b San Diego; 8) Murphy, C Arizona; 9) Field, OF Tampa Bay; 10) Andujar, 3b NY Yankees; 12) Vogelback, 1b Seattle; 13) Jimenez, P Detroit. 14-20 (tie between 7 excellent short relievers) Arizona (Hirona), Atlanta (Carle and Winkler), Chicago Cubs (Dominiguez), Chicago White Sox (Fry), San Diego (Cimber) and San Francisco (Moronta).

Below we show the cards of all new players getting substantial playing time, based on the projections for their entire season. The formulas to calculate the batting, pitching and fielding will be maintained on this link.

We list the average batting card in the first row, on which a batter hits a home run if a Random Number is between 27-32 - actually four of 64 numbers since the numbers range from 11-88 on a base 8 system (no 9s or 0s). Ohtani for the Angels (34-38), and two Yankees (Torres 28-35 and Austin 24-32) have the best home run range.

Ohtani ranks 1st overall, because he is also the best pitcher on the new players, while Torres comes in second because his Speed rating (SP: A on a scale of AA-E) is an advantage over Austin.

While Ohtani most of the pitchers in the top 20 have a PB of 2-8, meaning they are in the top 15% of all pitchers based on ERA, Tampa Bay's Kittredge ranks 5th overall with a PB2-7 (meaning top 45% of all pitchers) but actually more valuable because he is a starting pitcher which typically has just a PB2-6 so he well above average for a starter and can face many more batters than the PB2-8 relievers in the leaders list who can usually only pitch an inning or so. (the best 5% of all pitchers have a PB of 2-9, while the worst have a PB of 2-5, and this number is used on a card flip or dice roll adding up to 2 to 12 to determine if the pitcher stays "in control" or leaves it outside the range to the hitter faced has a chance to drive the ball).

The A's Fowler comes in 5th even though his bat (28-33) is just above average and not quite as good as the batters behind him. This is because he is one of only a couple of players in baseball with a Speed (SP) AA, meaning he swipes bases at will. He is also one of the select players with a Clutch Defense (CD) of 4 (CD1 is below average, CD2 is average and CD3 is good, but CD4 is a player typically considered for a gold glove).

The other fielding component for all players is their Error (E) rating from E0 (which means they never make an error) to E10 (meaning they make an error at least 1 out of every 10 times a ball is hit to them.

With that as a basic explanation, below are the cards in the following order:
1. Sample pitching cards
2. Pitching cards for players on NL teams
3. Pitching cards for players on AL teams
4. Average batting cards
5. Batting cards for players on NL teams
6. Batting cards for players on AL teams