Showing posts with label Texas basketball. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Texas basketball. Show all posts

Thursday, March 7, 2024

Tale of 2 Halves: Durant vs. Tiny Archibald

In the ultimate tale of two halves, Kevin Durant put up an incredible 21 first half points to give the 2007 Texas Longhorns a 40-31 lead. The only teammate to score was Matt Hill, who hit a free throw. One of the problems for the 1970 UTEP Miners was that the two players defending Durant - Scott English and Len Stewart - both had the highest foul range (33-36 on defensive dice all fouls) and kept fouling Durant.

However, in the second half it was one of the greatest point guards in the history of basketball, Tiny Archibald, who scored 23 or his 31 points after half time to lead an incredible turnaround with a 51-22 domination to win going away 82-62.   

1st H   2nd H    Final
Texas 2007          402262
UTEP 1970315182

Archibald's backcourt teammate Bob Doyle also had a huge night with 21 points and UTEPs front court dominated the boards to give them a 32-21 edge on the boards. UTEP now faces Durant's long-time OKC teammate Russell Westbrook and his UCLA team.
 
Pos      Texas 2007                 Pts   3pt   2pt  FT  Att   Reb   Stl   Blk   Fl
1-PGD.J. Augustin1004221204
2-SGA.J. Abrams1021223101
3-SFJustin Mason201001101
4-PFKevin Durant25178114031
5-CDamion James201007031
1-PGJ.D. Lewis201001001
2-SGCraig Winder201001001
3-SFConnor Atchley402002011
4-PFDexter Pittman201001001
5-CMatt Hill301120022
 11 Turnovers623201317214914
           
           
PosUTEP 1970Pts3pt2ptFTAttRebStlBlkFl
1-PGTiny Archibald3138662412
2-SGBob Doyle2118224101
3-SFMike Switzer804006111
4-PFDick Gibbs402005023
5-CPles Vann603008011
1-PGSam Samuels201001002
2-SGJohn Ruud201002002
3-SFTom Issac402001001
4-PFLen Stewart201002004
5-CScott English201001012
 13 Turnovers8243188326619



Thursday, November 23, 2023

SEC and Return of Value Add Basketball All-American Ratings

All-Southeastern Conf     Team               Value  AdjO AdjD    Notes
Brandon MillerAlabama10.2311788.21-seed, 31-6, nba 2 in 2023
Santiago VescoviTennessee9.52114.287.54-seed, 25-11 (PG), Poss 18.8%
Oscar TshiebweKentucky8.83122.698.86-seed, 22-12, Poss 24.5%
Tolu SmithMississippi St.8.28108.791.411-seed, 21-13, Poss 30.5%
Olivier NkamhouaTennessee8.06110.427-Mar4-seed, 25-11, Poss 22.1%
2nd T-Southeastern ConfTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Wade TaylorTexas A&M7.89113.8977-seed, 25-10, Poss 29.1%
Makhi MitchellArkansas7.88124.7948-seed, 22-14, Poss 15.9%
Charles BediakoAlabama7.83121.388.21-seed, 31-6, Poss 14.6%
Kobe BrownMissouri7.75125.5105.37-seed, 25-10, nba 30 in 2023
Josiah-Jordan JamesTennessee7.57107.287.54-seed, 25-11, Poss 23.2%
HM-Southeastern ConfTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Zakai ZeiglerTennessee7.55107.187.54-seed, 25-11, Poss 23.2%
Will RichardFlorida7.54124.695.516-17, Poss 15.6%
Liam RobbinsVanderbilt7.27117.2103.722-15, Poss 31.6%
D'Moi HodgeMissouri6.90124.6105.37-seed, 25-10, Poss 20.2%
Wendell GreenAuburn6.35102.295.79-seed, 21-13 (PG), Poss 28.4%
KJ WilliamsLSU6.23118.3105.114-19, Poss 24.5%
Colin CastletonFlorida5.63104.895.516-17, Poss 28.3%
Noah CarterMissouri5.35116.3105.37-seed, 25-10, Poss 21.4%

Above is a very late All-SEC team from the 2022-23 season, and we will be updating these and the top 300 players at www.valueaddbasketball.com to go along with the rankings going back to the 2001-02 season. While this system received rave reviews from Sports Illustrated, ESPN, Fox Sports and many others, last season we skipped because we lost the ability to rank all 4000 players who take the court for D1 action.

Note also the the first three players listed were also All-Americans below, though of those only Tennessee's Santiago Vescovi returns this season.

With Texas and Oklahoma joining next year to a conference that is already ranked 2nd behind the Big 12, had eight teams in the NCAA tournament last year and always competes for most players in the NBA, no one tops the SEC in basketball talent. The only downside for the conference is they have more one-and-dones who don't stick around long enough to put together an NCAA title run as often as you would expect. Another case-in-point was Alabama last year who likely was the second best team during the season behind UConn, but was just pushed around by a physical, older team in the tournament to fall. 

Team                  2023   2024   2025   Seed23   Rnk24
AlabamaSECSECSEC15
ArkansasSECSECSEC838
AuburnSECSECSEC915
FloridaSECSECSEC 28
GeorgiaSECSECSEC 85
KentuckySECSECSEC621
LSUSECSECSEC 65
MississippiSECSECSEC 126
Mississippi St.SECSECSEC1118
MissouriSECSECSEC787
OklahomaB12B12SEC 24
South CarolinaSECSECSEC 62
TennesseeSECSECSEC410
TexasB12B12SEC232
Texas A&MSECSECSEC714
VanderbiltSECSECSEC 139

Better late than never - this is one of 32 lists of All-Conference teams based on the "resurrected" Value Add Basketball rankings at www.valueaddbasketball.com. The other 31 releases of Conference teams will all include this same explanation for the rest of the blog, including the 10 returning All-Americans and top 60 players from last season listed further down.

This paragraph is of interest to stat nerds only. The offensive ratings were easier to recreate, since the basis was to pull hundreds of players ranked as the most efficient last season (AdjO at www.kenpom.com) and adjusting their figures for their percent of possessions. A player who can produce about 1.2 points per time he has the ball who also gets the ball 25% of the time against tough competition and as part of a strong defense can be All-American level, but a player who doesn't get the ball nearly as often but produces even more at 1.3 points per possession can still be All-Conference even if fans feel other players handling and shooting the ball more are better due to higher points scored per game.

The new simplified system weighs their ability to produce points against the Adjusted Defense (AdjD) - that is how many points per 100 trips would their team allow against an average D1 team. This accounts both for defense and for level of competition. We also note if a player is a Point Guard, the most important position on the court.

The resulting "Value" listed in the third column is the Value Add of points the player would improve an average team over if he could not play if a decent replacement took his place. Zach Edey was by far the most valuable player in the country last year at 13.17 meaning typically he would turn a 65-70 loss for a team into a 72-64 win - a 13 point swing. The notes off to the first indicated the team's record, their seed if they made the tournament, and then if they went to the NBA in the 2023 draft or are projected to go in the 2024 or 2025 draft.

1st and 2nd Team Returning All-Americans; and Top 60 Players from Last Season
 
The table below is the list of the 30 most valuable players in college basketball for the 2022-23 season according to our simplified www.valueaddbasketball.com rankings. Obviously most of these top players finished their eligibility or went pro so are no longer playing. However, if we made this our All-American teams of returning players including transfers at their new school the headline would be from Creighton.

1st Team Returning All-Americans - Value Add Basketball calculates that Creighton now has two of the three most valuable players in 2022-23 in returning Ryan Kalkbrenner and Utah State transfer Steven Ashworth. Ironically, Thursday it was Colorado State that handed Creighton its first loss - a team that Ashworth had dominated four of seven times in conference games at Utah State. The other 1st Team All-Americans based on last year's Value Add would be J'Wan Roberts returning for Houston, and then Tylor Perry who transferred from North Texas to Kansas State.

Most Valuable Player for 2nd Year. However, the far and away Most Valuable Player in the Country could challenge Anthony DavisJon Scheyer and Zion Williamson for as the most Valuable college player of the century in the All-Time Value Add Basketball Rankings - Zach Edey who was almost 2 points better than anyone in the country last year at Purdue and has them at No. 1 this season.

2nd Team Returning All-Americans - The 6th most valuable returning player according to Value Add is Marquette Point Guard Tyler Kolek. He would be joined on a second team All-American squad of returning players by Tennessee's Santiago Vescovi, Texas transfer from Oral Roberts Max Abmas, Duke's Ryan Young, Arizona's Azuolas Tubelis and finally Cam Spencer, who transferred from Rutgers to UConn.

In all, 18 of the top 30 players finished their college careers, leaving those 10 returning All-Americans and then two other players - JaKobe Coles of TCU and USC's Boogie Ellis.
 
All-American 1st Team    Team               Value    AdjO  AdjDNotes                                                
Zach EdeyPurdue13.17125.994.51-seed, 29-6, nba 58 in 2024
Adama Sanogo (gone)Connecticut11.37122.690.94-seed, 31-8, Poss 26.4%
Marcus Sasser (gone)Houston11.25123.490.41-seed, 33-4, nba 25 in 2023
Ryan KalkbrennerCreighton10.80133.493.26-seed, 24-13, Poss 19.4%
Steven Ashworth (Creigh)Utah St.10.72127.798.910-seed, 26-9 (PG), Poss 21.6%
All-American 2nd TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Tylor Perry (K-State)North Texas10.37124.394.131-7, Poss 24.4%
Brandon Miller (gone)Alabama10.23117.088.21-seed, 31-6, nba 2 in 2023
Xavier Castaneda (gone)Akron9.94121.9103.422-11 (PG), Poss 29.4%
J'Wan RobertsHouston9.90127.990.41-seed, 33-4, Poss 18.4%
Jordan Hawkins (gone)Connecticut9.88121.290.94-seed, 31-8, nba 14 in 2023
All-American 3rd TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Jaime Jaquez (gone)UCLA9.80113.1882-seed, 31-6, nba 18 in 2023
Jalen Pickett (gone)Penn St.9.66118.7101.110-seed, 23-14 (PG), nba 32 in 2023
Jordan Walker (gone)UAB9.64114.797.929-10 (PG), Poss 30.6%
Tyler KolekMarquette9.6311896.72-seed, 29-7 (PG), Poss 24.1%
Santiago VescoviTennessee9.52114.287.54-seed, 25-11 (PG), Poss 18.8%
All-American 4th TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Max Abmas (Texas)Oral Roberts9.47120.2102.212-seed, 30-5 (PG), Poss 27.6%
Trayce Jackson-Davis (g)Indiana9.45118.597.24-seed, 23-12, nba 57 in 2023
Ryan YoungDuke9.37128.793.95-seed, 27-9, Poss 18.3%
Kendric Davis (grad)Memphis9.24111.196.18-seed, 26-9 (PG), Poss 31.6%
Drew Timme (grad)Gonzaga9.21119.699.33-seed, 31-6, Poss 30.6%
All-American 5th TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Markquis Nowell (gone)Kansas St.8.92111953-seed, 26-10 (PG), Poss 27.6%
Souley Boum (gone)Xavier8.87119.298.63-seed, 27-10 (PG), Poss 21.2%
Oscar Tshiebwe (gone)Kentucky8.83122.698.86-seed, 22-12, Poss 24.5%
Terence Lewis (gone)Louisiana8.74131.2102.913-seed, 26-8, Poss 20.3%
Darius McGhee (gone)Liberty8.68114.597.527-9, Poss 33.4%
All-American 6th TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Azuolas TubelisArizona8.68116.196.32-seed, 28-7, Poss 28.7%
Cam Spencer (UConn)Rutgers8.66119.490.819-15, Poss 19.8%
Sir'Jabari Rice (gone)Texas8.66116.392.12-seed, 29-9, Poss 23.4%
JaKobe ColesTCU8.64118.494.36-seed, 22-13, Poss 23.4%
Boogie EllisUSC8.56113.397.510-seed, 22-11 (PG), Poss 25.7%

Friday, November 17, 2023

Bird's 36 Points Not Enough as Texas Survives with OT Stick Back

Texas 2023 grabbed the last Sweet 16 spot, surviving a 36 points, 8 steal performance by Larry Bird to beat Indiana State 1979 by a 97-96 score in overtime. 

After 36 turnovers and lots of 3-pointers hit, the game was decided on the boards in the last two possessions for each team. 

Alex Gilbert, the center who was the third best player on Larry Bird's national runner-up team, scored inside to give Indiana State a96-95 lead in overtime with only time for one possession for the Texas Longhorns of 2023. At the other end of the court Gilbert almost sealed the game with his 5th blocked shot of the game, but the rebound chart was an "18" meaning the offensive shooting guard Bob Heaton has the chance to grab the rebound to end the game.

While this team is all about Bird obviously, Gilbert is fascinating for a couple of reasons. First, he was not sent to the line during the game, but when I saw his card only made a free throw on a 1-5 on the 20-sided die I double checked, and sure enough he hit only 20 of 79 free throws that season. He did improve to Shaq range at 48 of 101 the next season so would have been a 1-10. The second interesting thing on his actual career was that the Milwaukee Bucks did take him in the first round but he did not make the team. The thing that gets interesting is that he went to a league in Iceland, scored 42 points in his sixth game for them to bring his per game average to 24.0 per game - and then was cut from the team. I wonder if any other players was ever cut after a 42 point game.

Unfortunately Heaton's Defensive Rebound range for the 6-sided die is only a 1-2, and the result was a "3" which means the player fails to get the rebound and instead it was grabbled by Texas' Tyrese Hunter - who went back up with it and scored the game-winner. The actual roll was a 6 on the 8-sided die which in a set offense would have gone to Marcus Carr (1&6) in a set offense, but on offensive rebounds or steals the 6,7 and 8 go to the player who grabbed the offensive rebound or the steal. The 20-sided die on Hunter's shot was actually a 2, but a player grabbing an offensive rebound cannot make a 3-point shot so it was a 2-point shot for the 97-96 win.

As for the game, Texas forced tons of turnovers early to pull ahead 46-35. Bird then started hitting everything but more importantly came up with an incredible 8 steals and his fellow future NBA player Carl Nicks added five that led a comeback including a 19-3 run to flip that 46-35 deficit to a 54-49 lead.

However, Sir'Jabari Rice went on a personal 7-0 run in three possessions and eventually the game was tied 70-70 with just over two minutes to play in regulation. 

Bird hit a couple of 3-pointers in overtime to eventually give Indiana State a 93-88 lead. However, Marcus Carr hit two 3-pointers and had two steals in the closing possessions to set up the win. Click here to play your own Value Add Basketball Games for free.

Texas (2023) 97, Indiana State (1979) 96 in Overtime


Indiana St. 1979               Pts  Reb Stls Blks  Fls   Ht      Actual Season                    
Carl Nicks1315016'119.3 Pts, 3.5 Reb, 5.0 Ast
Bob Heaton1021026'57.3 Pts, 3.3 Reb, 1.8 Ast
Larry Bird3698126'928.6 Pts, 14.9 Reb, 5.5 Ast
Leroy Staley841026'47.0 Pts, 3.5 Reb, 0.7 Ast
Alex Gilbert1490526'79.6 Pts, 6.1 Reb, 0.4 Ast
Steve Reed210016'35.0 Pts, 1.9 Reb, 7.0 Ast
Rich Nemcek210016'61.7 Pts, 1.0 Reb, 0.6 Ast
Scott Turner510016'52.1 Pts, 1.1 Reb, 0.3 Ast
Brad Miley410026'85.7 Pts, 6.0 Reb, 1.6 Ast
Tom Crowder220016'51.9 Pts, 1.3 Reb, 0.2 Ast
Indiana St. 19 Turnovers963115615  
        
Texas 2023PtsRebStlsBlksFlsHtActual Season
Marcus Carr1913036'215.9 Pts, 3.0 Reb, 4.1 Ast
Tyrese Hunter1232016'010.3 Pts, 3.0 Reb, 2.5 Ast
Sir'Jabari Rice2140026'413.0 Pts, 3.5 Reb, 2.0 Ast
Timmy Allen1382026'610.5 Pts, 5.6 Reb, 3.5 Ast
Dylan Disu780316'98.8 Pts, 4.4 Reb, 1.0 Ast
Dillon Mitchell410116'84.3 Pts, 3.9 Reb, 0.4 Ast
Brock Cunningham612026'54.6 Pts, 3.4 Reb, 1.4 Ast
Arterio Morris210016'34.6 Pts, 1.4 Reb, 0.5 Ast
Christian Bishop1120116'76.6 Pts, 3.7 Reb, 0.9 Ast
Alex Anamekwe210016'51.5 Pts, 0.7 Reb, 0.1 Ast
Texas 17 Turnovers97309515 



Sunday, November 12, 2023

Larry Bird and 3 Elite 8 Teams from 2023 Vie for Last 2 Sweet 16 Spots

 Larry Bird and 3 Elite 8 Teams from 2023 Vie for Last 2 Sweet 16 Spots

Only two Sweet 16 spots are open in our tournament of new teams in the Value Add Basketball Game. Actually we had an odd number of new teams, so we added one team that we already had in the game, but had only played one game – Larry Bird’s Indiana State.

Since Bobby Knight became only the fourth coach to lead a team to a undefeated title (Indiana 1976), only two teams have made it to the championship game undefeated. Bird’s Indiana State in 1979 and Gonzaga in 2021 – but both lost in the title game. Therefore the only three other coaches to win a title undefeated were Phil Woolpert’s 1956 San Francisco team, Al McGuire’s big brother Frank McGuire 1957 North Carolina, and John Wooden with four UCLA teams (1964, 1967, 1972 and 1973).

Here are the two final 2nd round games in our tournament to set our Sweet 16 for this tournament, followed by 10-player rosters for each team and images of the finalized team cards (slight adjustments were made to a couple in the dunk/lay-up range before verifying as final).

Indiana 1979 vs. Texas 2023

1-seed Indiana State backed up the seed by crushing Virginia Tech and Oklahoma to make the Elite 8 before needing thrilling two point wins against Arkansas and DePaul to go undefeated into the 1979 championship undefeated for Larry Bird vs. Magic Johnson.

2-seed Texas 2023 beat Penn State and Xavier to go to the Elite 8 before losing to Miami.

K-State 2023 vs. Miami 2023

3-seed Kansas State beat Kentucky and Michigan State to make Elite 8 before being upset by 3 points by Florida Atlantic.

5-seed Miami crushed Indiana and Houston to make the Elite 8, then beat Texas to go Final 4 before losing to eventual champ UConn.

Indiana St. 1979HeightSummary
Carl Nicks6'119.3 Pts, 3.5 Reb, 5.0 Ast
Bob Heaton6'57.3 Pts, 3.3 Reb, 1.8 Ast
Larry Bird6'928.6 Pts, 14.9 Reb, 5.5 Ast
Leroy Staley6'47.0 Pts, 3.5 Reb, 0.7 Ast
Alex Gilbert6'79.6 Pts, 6.1 Reb, 0.4 Ast
Steve Reed6'35.0 Pts, 1.9 Reb, 7.0 Ast
Rich Nemcek6'61.7 Pts, 1.0 Reb, 0.6 Ast
Scott Turner6'52.1 Pts, 1.1 Reb, 0.3 Ast
Brad Miley6'85.7 Pts, 6.0 Reb, 1.6 Ast
Tom Crowder6'51.9 Pts, 1.3 Reb, 0.2 Ast
   
Texas 2023HeightSummary
Marcus Carr6'215.9 Pts, 3.0 Reb, 4.1 Ast
Tyrese Hunter6'010.3 Pts, 3.0 Reb, 2.5 Ast
Sir'Jabari Rice6'413.0 Pts, 3.5 Reb, 2.0 Ast
Timmy Allen6'610.5 Pts, 5.6 Reb, 3.5 Ast
Dylan Disu6'98.8 Pts, 4.4 Reb, 1.0 Ast
Dillon Mitchell6'84.3 Pts, 3.9 Reb, 0.4 Ast
Brock Cunningham6'54.6 Pts, 3.4 Reb, 1.4 Ast
Arterio Morris6'34.6 Pts, 1.4 Reb, 0.5 Ast
Christian Bishop6'76.6 Pts, 3.7 Reb, 0.9 Ast
Alex Anamekwe6'51.5 Pts, 0.7 Reb, 0.1 Ast
   
Kansas State 2023HeightSummary
Markquis Nowell5'717.6 Pts, 3.5 Reb, 8.3 Ast
Desi Sills6'18.7 Pts, 3.5 Reb, 2.2 Ast
Camryn Carter6'36.5 Pts, 3.0 Reb, 1.4 Ast
Keyontae Johnson6'517.4 Pts, 6.8 Reb, 2.1 Ast
Nae'Qwan Tomlin6'1010.4 Pts, 5.9 Reb, 1.2 Ast
Dorian Finister6'52.0 Pts, 2.3 Reb, 1.2 Ast
Ismael Massoud6'85.4 Pts, 1.7 Reb, 0.5 Ast
David N'Guessan6'96.4 Pts, 3.5 Reb, 0.8 Ast
Tykei Greene6'42.7 Pts, 1.9 Reb, 0.3 Ast
Abayomi Iyiola6'93.4 Pts, 2.8 Reb, 0.3 Ast
   
Miami 2023HeightSummary
Nijel Pack6'013.6 Pts, 2.7 Reb, 2.3 Ast
Isaiah Wong6'316.2 Pts, 4.3 Reb, 3.2 Ast
Jordan Miller6'615.3 Pts, 6.2 Reb, 2.7 Ast
Wooga Poplar6'58.4 Pts, 3.3 Reb, 1.5 Ast
Norchad Omier6'713.1 Pts, 10.0 Reb, 1.3 Ast
Bensley Joseph6'15.3 Pts, 2.1 Reb, 2.0 Ast
Harlond Beverly6'53.5 Pts, 1.2 Reb, 1.2 Ast
Anthony Walker6'92.8 Pts, 1.2 Reb, 0.3 Ast
AJ Casey6'90.9 Pts, 1.0 Reb, 0.2 Ast
Favour Aire6'110.6 Pts, 0.6 Reb, 0.0 Ast

Here are the team cards for the game.





Here are the sweet 16 games

1-UConn 2023 vs. 17-Duke 2022

8-Gonzaga 2023 vs 9-Kansas 2022



20-Indiana State 1979-13-Texas 2023 winner vs. 4-Tennessee 2023

12-K-State 2023-21-Miami 2023 winner vs. 5-Colorado 2021.



18-Stanford 2008 vs. 2-Rutgers 1976

7-SMU 2017 vs. 10-Xavier 2023



19-UNC 2022 winner vs. 3-Houston 2021

11-Marquette 2023 vs. 6-Duke 2015