Showing posts with label JMU. Show all posts
Showing posts with label JMU. Show all posts

Sunday, December 31, 2023

NBA's Most Famous Virgin Leads Oregon St. 1982 Past JMU 2024

Oregon State's AC Green set some amazing streaks, perhaps most incredibly staying a virgin through a 16-year NBA career and until his marriage in 2002 (see Fox Sports story). As a freshman on this Oregon State 1982 team he stepped in as the starting center and helped lead the Beavers to a third straight Pac-10 championship, No. 4 ranking, and Elite 8 run.

This card was from Green's freshman season, so he was good but not yet dominant, and his the other future NBA players Lester Conner and Charlie Sitton have stronger cards. Green stepped in to a void the year after Oregon State lost three players from their defending Pac-10 champs to the NBA in Ray Blume, Steve Johnson and Mark Radford. Later the great Gary Payton and his son Gary Payton II went from Oregon State to the NBA.

Patrick Ewing finally shut Oregon State down in the Elite 8, holding the rest of the team to 35% shooting, but the only one unfazed was Green who hit 3 of 4 shots in a 10-point performance. Two games later, Georgetown led UNC in the title game 62-61 when Jordan hit the first of many game-winning shots. More famous still were the following few seconds as the Hoyas worked down for a potential game-winning shot only to have Fred Brown, thinking a teammate was behind him, pass the ball back to James Worthy who ran out the clock. Coach John Thompson famously hugged Brown to let him know all was ok.

Green went onto finish second all-time in career rebounds and fourth all-time in scoring and then won multiple titles with the Los Angeles Lakers. Anyone who has talked to an NBA player about the number of suitors who come to their hotel doors at night can appreciate what it took to stay a virgin as a star in Los Angeles.

This great Oregon State team ranks 47th of the all-time great teams in our score tracker, behind those two (Jordan's UNC is ranked 7th and a Ewing Georgetown team 33rd), and was seeded No. 2 of our new 16 teams and thus drew the newest team and 15-seed, James Madison University 2024, which started this season with an upset at Michigan State to start a 13-0 start that propelled them to No. 20 in the AP rankings, though www.kenpom.com is not as impressed with them at 62nd. This is the same year the JMU football team debuted in the Top 25 in only their second year at the top level of football.

Oregon State dominated this match-up, but JMU keep within range during an incredible streak of 20 possessions during which JMU scored an incredible three or more points on 7 possessions to get within 66-71 with only eight possessions or 4:35 to play.

However, the Beavers clamed down on the defense with steals and blocked shots by Conner, Danny Evans and a stop by Green to only allow 2 points the last eight possessions to win 68-82 win and advance to the second round.

The following is the box score, followed by the scoresheet to show the running score, and then some screen shots to show the set up. The bottom image shows the setup with a game note. Games typically start with each of the 10 players having 2 points each for the 20-20 tie. However, if some players averaged less than two points per game (such as Oregon State's Alan Tait, Jamie Stangel and Jeff Wilson) then you can start them at 0 points and give those extra points - 6 in this case - to other leading scorers. 

In this case we started the 2nd NBA player on the team Connor with 5 points - added a 3-pointer made to the 2-pointer made that most teams start with in the game. We changed Evans starting 2-pointer with a 3-pointer so he starts with 3 points instead of 2. Finally we gave Green a 2nd basket at the opening to start him with 4 points instead of 2. As long as your total is 20 points at the outset, you can tweak but only if some of the 10 players averaged less than 2 points per game.

One strategy note from the game, with 12 possessions, JMU switched to a "try for 3-pointers" strategy to try to catchup from a 54-65 deficit. This should only be used if a team is running out of time to catchup or needs a 3-pointer on their final trip down the court to tie.  It gives a team a chance for the bigger come-from-behind, but on average you will lose 2 points for every 1 point you gain from changing a 2-pointer to a 3-pointer.

It paid immediate dividends on possession 12 when Noah Friedel had a "5" on the 20-sided die, which would normally be in his 5-8 2-point shot made range. However, when the strategy is used then half the numbers in this range are changed to a 3-pointer made (5-6 for Freidel) but the other half are changed to missed 2-point shot and rebound to the high defensive rebound rating. The 3-pointers can no more than double the number of 3-pointers on the card, and any numbers remaining in the range stay a 2-pointer made. Changing it to a 3-pointer cut the Oregon State lead to 57-66.

The only other possession the strategy effected was with 3 possessions left when JMU's Terrence Edwards drew a "6" on the 20-sided die. Due to the strategy, his normal 3-7 range for 2-pointers made was adjusted to a 3-4 for 3-pointer made (it can no longer double the original 1-2 3-pointer made), with a 5 still a made 2-pointer, and then his 6 on this roll falling within the 6-7 range a missed 2-pointer with AC Green getting the rebound as the high rebounder and never a chance for the offense to grab an offensive rebound when they miss in this range. 

Here is the box score:

Pos      JMU 2024              Pts  3pt   2pt  FT  Att RebStl  Blk Fl  Height, PPG          
1-PGMichael Green10220011016'0,11.5 ppg
2-SGNoah Freidel8210011146'4,10.9 ppg
3-SFTerrence Edwards12222221016'6,17.2 ppg
4-PFJulien Wooden5110023016'8,9.8 ppg
5-CTJ Bickerstaff14062220126'9,15.8 ppg
1-PGBryant Randleman0000010016'4,1.7 ppg
2-SGXavier Brown7120011026'2,7 ppg
3-SFQuincy Allen2010010016'8,3.8 ppg
4-PFRaekwon Horton4012211016'6,7 ppg
5-CJaylen Carey6030010016'8,6.8 ppg
 15 Turnovers6881966137110 
            
            
PosOregon St. 1982Pts3pt2ptFTAttRebStlBlkFlHeight, Season
1-PGWilliam Brew11140012016'1,9.2 ppg
2-SGLester Conner21336714016'4,14.9 ppg,NBA
3-SFDanny Evans14151122016'5,11.3 ppg
4-PFCharlie Sitton13150022026'8,12.9 ppg,NBA
5-CA.C. Green10050020136'9,8.6 ppg,NBA
1-PGAlan Tait0000010016'2,0.5 ppg
2-SGJamie Stangel0000010016'7,1.4 ppg
3-SFJeff Wilson0000010016'7,1.2 ppg
4-PFRob Holbrook6030010026'86.7 ppg
5-CGreg Wiltjer6030010016'11,5.4 ppg
 13 Turnovers81628781310110












Saturday, December 30, 2023

3000+ Unique Visitors for Latest 16 Teams - JMU 2024 vs. Oregon State 1982 Next

We are seeing some of our highest traffic to this page, with more than 3,000 unique visitors in the last 36 hours. Thank you for your interest! 

The newest 16 teams have been created, and we will fold them into the 200 overall great teams shortly. For now, you can pull up any of the 16 teams via this link. As we go through and update the list of 200, we are breaking them into 8 files of 25 great teams each - and have started by creating this "New List A - Alabama 1977 to Connecticut 2004."  With some of the google docs getting up to 50 pages, we were being told they were opening slowly for some, so hopefully these 26 page docs (1 cover sheet with list of teams, then 25 teams) will make it easier to open and print your team.

List A - Alabama 1977 to Connecticut 2004

List B - Connecticut 2023 to Georgia Tech 2004.

List C - Gonzaga 2017to Kentucky 1948

List D - Kentucky 1970 to Miami 1965

List E - Miami 2013 to North Carolina St. 1974

List F - Northwestern 2017 to Seton Hall 1989

List G - Seton 2020 to UCLA 2006

List H - UCLA 2021 to Xavier 2023

Having almost had a 16- over 1- upset in our first game of a modern upcoming Virginia athletic program (Liberty 2023) against an all-time great (Massachusetts 1996), we will try a similar combo next. The current James Madison University team (2024) will play one of the best defensive teams in the entire game, Oregon State 1982.

The JMU 51-55 dunk range combine with the Oregon State -6 defensive adjustment takes the JMU dunk range for the game below 50 to a "49-51," which the chart in the game shows means a 51 is a STOP, with JMU failing to score and the Oregon State defender on the player with the ball getting a rebound. The Oregon State low offensive dunk range of 51-50 is increased slightly by JMU's weaker defense of +3, so on a 51-53 Oregon State gets to the hoop for a dunk, unless they prefer the result of the 20-sided die (a 3-pointer made, or occasionally even drawing a foul if it would be on a player in foul trouble).

Click on the Value Add Basketball Game and the two teams you want to play your own game.




Thursday, November 23, 2023

Sun Belt with JMU and Return of Value Add Basketball Rankings

All-Sun Belt Conf      Team                 Value  AdjO   AdjD      Notes                                   
Terence LewisLouisiana8.74131.2102.913-seed, 26-8, Poss 20.3%
Taevion KinseyMarshall8.54122.3101.324-8, Poss 26.4%
Greg WilliamsLouisiana6.57122.1102.913-seed, 26-8, Poss 18.6%
Isaiah MooreSouth Alabama6.45106.3100.419-16 (PG), Poss 33%
Felipe HaaseSouthern Miss6.10114.7100.625-8, Poss 22%
2nd T-Sun Belt ConfTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Zay WilliamsTroy5.99115.4101.120-13, Poss 20.9%
Terrence EdwardsJames Madison5.5110999.822-11, Poss 27.3%
Andrew TaylorMarshall5.13103.5101.324-8 (PG), Poss 28.5%
Chaunce JenkinsOld Dominion5.01105.8103.719-12 (PG), Poss 24.3%
Jordan BrownLouisiana3.91106102.913-seed, 26-8, Poss 29.3%

Above is a very late All-Sun Belt team from the 2022-23 season, and we will be updating these and the top 300 players at www.valueaddbasketball.com to go along with the rankings going back to the 2001-02 season. While this system received rave reviews from Sports Illustrated, ESPN, Fox Sports and many others, last season we skipped because we lost the ability to rank all 4000 players who take the court for D1 action.

The big addition from a few years ago after the beat Michigan in football was Appalachian State, and now its James Madison University moving up to D1 to break the Top 25 in both football and basketball this year to give some real excitement around the Sun Belt.

Team                         2023  2024  2025   Seed23   Rnk24
Appalachian St.SBSBSB 104
Arkansas St.SBSBSB 171
Coastal CarolinaSBSBSB 274
Georgia SouthernSBSBSB 322
Georgia St.SBSBSB 188
James MadisonSBSBSB 67
LouisianaSBSBSB13149
Louisiana MonroeSBSBSB 291
MarshallSBSBSB 172
Old DominionSBSBSB 204
South AlabamaSBSBSB 176
Southern MissSBSBSB 217
Texas St.SBSBSB 221
TroySBSBSB 223

Better late than never - this is one of 32 lists of All-Conference teams based on the "resurrected" Value Add Basketball rankings at www.valueaddbasketball.com. The other 31 releases of Conference teams will all include this same explanation for the rest of the blog, including the 10 returning All-Americans and top 60 players from last season listed further down.

This paragraph is of interest to stat nerds only. The offensive ratings were easier to recreate, since the basis was to pull hundreds of players ranked as the most efficient last season (AdjO at www.kenpom.com) and adjusting their figures for their percent of possessions. A player who can produce about 1.2 points per time he has the ball who also gets the ball 25% of the time against tough competition and as part of a strong defense can be All-American level, but a player who doesn't get the ball nearly as often but produces even more at 1.3 points per possession can still be All-Conference even if fans feel other players handling and shooting the ball more are better due to higher points scored per game.

The new simplified system weighs their ability to produce points against the Adjusted Defense (AdjD) - that is how many points per 100 trips would their team allow against an average D1 team. This accounts both for defense and for level of competition. We also note if a player is a Point Guard, the most important position on the court.

The resulting "Value" listed in the third column is the Value Add of points the player would improve an average team over if he could not play if a decent replacement took his place. Zach Edey was by far the most valuable player in the country last year at 13.17 meaning typically he would turn a 65-70 loss for a team into a 72-64 win - a 13 point swing. The notes off to the first indicated the team's record, their seed if they made the tournament, and then if they went to the NBA in the 2023 draft or are projected to go in the 2024 or 2025 draft.

1st and 2nd Team Returning All-Americans; and Top 60 Players from Last Season
 
The table below is the list of the 30 most valuable players in college basketball for the 2022-23 season according to our simplified www.valueaddbasketball.com rankings. Obviously most of these top players finished their eligibility or went pro so are no longer playing. However, if we made this our All-American teams of returning players including transfers at their new school the headline would be from Creighton.

1st Team Returning All-Americans - Value Add Basketball calculates that Creighton now has two of the three most valuable players in 2022-23 in returning Ryan Kalkbrenner and Utah State transfer Steven Ashworth. Ironically, Thursday it was Colorado State that handed Creighton its first loss - a team that Ashworth had dominated four of seven times in conference games at Utah State. The other 1st Team All-Americans based on last year's Value Add would be J'Wan Roberts returning for Houston, and then Tylor Perry who transferred from North Texas to Kansas State.

Most Valuable Player for 2nd Year. However, the far and away Most Valuable Player in the Country could challenge Anthony DavisJon Scheyer and Zion Williamson for as the most Valuable college player of the century in the All-Time Value Add Basketball Rankings - Zach Edey who was almost 2 points better than anyone in the country last year at Purdue and has them at No. 1 this season.

2nd Team Returning All-Americans - The 6th most valuable returning player according to Value Add is Marquette Point Guard Tyler Kolek. He would be joined on a second team All-American squad of returning players by Tennessee's Santiago Vescovi, Texas transfer from Oral Roberts Max Abmas, Duke's Ryan Young, Arizona's Azuolas Tubelis and finally Cam Spencer, who transferred from Rutgers to UConn.

In all, 18 of the top 30 players finished their college careers, leaving those 10 returning All-Americans and then two other players - JaKobe Coles of TCU and USC's Boogie Ellis.
 
All-American 1st Team    Team               Value    AdjO  AdjDNotes                                                
Zach EdeyPurdue13.17125.994.51-seed, 29-6, nba 58 in 2024
Adama Sanogo (gone)Connecticut11.37122.690.94-seed, 31-8, Poss 26.4%
Marcus Sasser (gone)Houston11.25123.490.41-seed, 33-4, nba 25 in 2023
Ryan KalkbrennerCreighton10.80133.493.26-seed, 24-13, Poss 19.4%
Steven Ashworth (Creigh)Utah St.10.72127.798.910-seed, 26-9 (PG), Poss 21.6%
All-American 2nd TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Tylor Perry (K-State)North Texas10.37124.394.131-7, Poss 24.4%
Brandon Miller (gone)Alabama10.23117.088.21-seed, 31-6, nba 2 in 2023
Xavier Castaneda (gone)Akron9.94121.9103.422-11 (PG), Poss 29.4%
J'Wan RobertsHouston9.90127.990.41-seed, 33-4, Poss 18.4%
Jordan Hawkins (gone)Connecticut9.88121.290.94-seed, 31-8, nba 14 in 2023
All-American 3rd TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Jaime Jaquez (gone)UCLA9.80113.1882-seed, 31-6, nba 18 in 2023
Jalen Pickett (gone)Penn St.9.66118.7101.110-seed, 23-14 (PG), nba 32 in 2023
Jordan Walker (gone)UAB9.64114.797.929-10 (PG), Poss 30.6%
Tyler KolekMarquette9.6311896.72-seed, 29-7 (PG), Poss 24.1%
Santiago VescoviTennessee9.52114.287.54-seed, 25-11 (PG), Poss 18.8%
All-American 4th TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Max Abmas (Texas)Oral Roberts9.47120.2102.212-seed, 30-5 (PG), Poss 27.6%
Trayce Jackson-Davis (g)Indiana9.45118.597.24-seed, 23-12, nba 57 in 2023
Ryan YoungDuke9.37128.793.95-seed, 27-9, Poss 18.3%
Kendric Davis (grad)Memphis9.24111.196.18-seed, 26-9 (PG), Poss 31.6%
Drew Timme (grad)Gonzaga9.21119.699.33-seed, 31-6, Poss 30.6%
All-American 5th TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Markquis Nowell (gone)Kansas St.8.92111953-seed, 26-10 (PG), Poss 27.6%
Souley Boum (gone)Xavier8.87119.298.63-seed, 27-10 (PG), Poss 21.2%
Oscar Tshiebwe (gone)Kentucky8.83122.698.86-seed, 22-12, Poss 24.5%
Terence Lewis (gone)Louisiana8.74131.2102.913-seed, 26-8, Poss 20.3%
Darius McGhee (gone)Liberty8.68114.597.527-9, Poss 33.4%
All-American 6th TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Azuolas TubelisArizona8.68116.196.32-seed, 28-7, Poss 28.7%
Cam Spencer (UConn)Rutgers8.66119.490.819-15, Poss 19.8%
Sir'Jabari Rice (gone)Texas8.66116.392.12-seed, 29-9, Poss 23.4%
JaKobe ColesTCU8.64118.494.36-seed, 22-13, Poss 23.4%
Boogie EllisUSC8.56113.397.510-seed, 22-11 (PG), Poss 25.7%