Thursday, March 2, 2017

Chance of all 351 teams to win conference and get an at-large bid

If you are rooting for a team on the bubble for an at-large bid, who should you root for in the 32 conference tournaments? The answer, teams that will make the tournament whether or not they win.

You want Dayton to win the Atlantic 10 because TeamRanks gives them a 100% chance of getting an at-large bid if they do not win the tournament. My analysis of BracketMatrix picks of 124 experts indicates they believe Dayton is 20th best team from an election perspective, and the top 45 to 50 will make the tournament.

Click on CBS Sports list of all 32 conference tournament schedules (yes, the Ivy League finally has a tournament too!) and use the table below as a guide. As you can see, if Davidson or someone below them won the Atlantic 10 they would "steal" a bid to the NCAA tournament, and with VCU and likely Rhode Island also likely getting bids, meaning the Atlantic 10 would get four bids, leaving only 64 (instead of 65) for the other teams. TeamRanks actually gives VCU a slightly better chance to win the tournament, and the average mock bracket places VCU as a 9-seed (8.84) and Dayton as an 8-seed (7.69) - meaning Dayton has slightly better credentials for a higher seed, while the experts see VCU as the hotter team that is slightly more likely to win the conference tournament.

TeamConfKenPom At-Large if no autoWin ConfExperts bracket rankAve Seed
DaytonA1032100%29%20 7.69
VCUA104597%31%29 8.84
Rhode IslandA104970%23%37 14.64
DavidsonA10880%3%
RichmondA10890%7%
St. BonaventureA10930%3%
George MasonA101180%1%
George WashingtonA101250%2%
La SalleA101390%1%
MassachusettsA101570%0%
St. JosephsA101780%0%
FordhamA101900%0%
DuquesneA102170%0%
St. LouisA102750%0%
North CarolinaACC3100%31%5 1.10
Florida StACC18100%10%11 3.42
LouisvilleACC8100%19%15 2.03
DukeACC15100%16%16 3.68
VirginiaACC6100%13%19 4.88
Notre DameACC26100%5%24 5.14
Miami FLACC2988%2%34 7.65
Virginia TechACC4186%1%36 8.25
Wake ForestACC3135%1%55 16.51
SyracuseACC5216%1%57 12.17
Georgia TechACC761%0%79 17.45
ClemsonACC370%1%17.75
PittsburghACC730%0%
North Carolina StACC1010%0%
Boston CollegeACC1620%0%
VermontAE6848%73%50 12.96
AlbanyAE1310%12%
New HampshireAE1600%5%
UMBCAE1890%0%
Stony BrookAE2090%9%
Massacusetts LowellAE2900%0%20.00
BinghamtonAE3130%0%
HartfordAE3320%0%
MaineAE3340%0%
CincinnatiAmer24100%38%18 5.22
HoustonAmer3955%11%45 17.23
UCFAmer743%4%69
SMUAmer16
MemphisAmer850%2%
ConnecticutAmer910%3%
TempleAmer1150%1%
TulsaAmer1270%1%
East CarolinaAmer1980%0%
TulaneAmer2460%0%
South FloridaAmer2910%0%
Florida Gulf CoastASun1160%71%14.87
LipscombASun1500%25%17.84
USC UpStASun2340%0%
Kennesaw StASun2500%2%
North FloridaASun2600%3%
JacksonvilleASun2720%0%
NJITASun2770%0%
StetsonASun3220%0%
PurdueB1013100%37%17 4.26
MinnesotaB1033100%7%21 5.45
WisconsinB102199%25%27 6.18
MarylandB103898%6%28 7.03
Michigan StB105189%5%33 9.11
NorthwesternB103670%4%38 9.65
MichiganB102763%7%43 8.82
IllinoisB106612%1%59 16.85
Ohio StB10673%1%70 17.80
IndianaB10502%4%72
IowaB10712%1%73
NebraskaB10941%0%77
Penn StB10820%0%
RutgersB101380%0%
KansasB129100%30%1 1.01
BaylorB1211100%13%10 2.31
West VirginiaB124100%35%13 4.18
Iowa StB1223100%10%23 6.67
Oklahoma StB121987%6%35 7.05
Kansas StB12356%2%61 16.88
Texas TechB12340%2%
TCUB12430%1%17.11
OklahomaB12640%0%
TexasB12750%0%
VillanovaBE2100%49%3 1.00
ButlerBE20100%18%4 3.12
CreightonBE2599%12%26 6.08
XavierBE4864%6%42 9.01
MarquetteBE3050%8%46 11.43
ProvidenceBE5549%2%49 11.21
Seton HallBE5745%3%53 10.85
GeorgetownBE610%2%
St. JohnsBE870%0%
DePaulBE1760%0%
North DakotaBSky1720%25%16.40
Eastern WashingtonBSky1800%16%17.51
Weber StBSky1820%27%17.72
MontanaBSky2060%12%
IdahoBSky2300%9%
Portland StBSky2360%4%
Montana StBSky2410%6%
Northern ColoradoBSky2800%0%20.00
Sacramento StBSky3020%1%
Idaho StBSky3280%0%
Northern ArizonaBSky3290%0%
Southern UtahBSky333
North Carolina AshevilleBSth980%38%16.21
WinthropBSth1120%48%16.11
Gardner WebbBSth1920%5%
LibertyBSth2070%5%
High PointBSth2530%2%
RadfordBSth2890%1%
CampbellBSth3050%0%
Charleston SouthernBSth3120%0%
LongwoodBSth3480%0%
PresbyterianBSth3500%0%
UC IrvineBW1530%48%16.54
UC DavisBW2210%16%17.33
Long Beach StBW2390%14%17.84
HawaiiBW2620%0%20.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW2680%7%20.00
Cal St. FullertonBW2780%7%
Cal PolyBW2950%4%
UC RiversideBW3190%3%
UC Santa BarbaraBW3370%1%
North Carolina WilmingtonCAA5963%40%44 11.94
College of CharlestonCAA863%22%71
TowsonCAA1220%10%
ElonCAA1300%7%
William & MaryCAA1320%10%
NortheasternCAA1370%7%
HofstraCAA1740%3%
James MadisonCAA2290%1%
DrexelCAA2420%0%
DelawareCAA3010%0%
Middle TennesseeCUSA4749%43%48 10.85
Louisiana TechCUSA900%18%
Old DominionCUSA1130%11%
RiceCUSA1330%5%
MarshallCUSA1610%5%
UABCUSA1840%14%
UTEPCUSA2080%2%
Western KentuckyCUSA2380%1%
CharlotteCUSA2400%0%
Florida AtlanticCUSA2590%0%
UTSACUSA2670%0%
Florida IntlCUSA2980%0%
North TexasCUSA3230%0%
Southern MissCUSA325
ValparaisoHorz953%38%68 14.98
OaklandHorz1080%30%16.63
Northern KentuckyHorz1490%7%
Wright StHorz1650%9%
Green BayHorz1770%12%
Cleveland StHorz2280%1%
Illinois ChicagoHorz2470%1%
MilwaukeeHorz2820%0%
DetroitHorz2850%0%
Youngstown StHorz2970%0%
PrincetonIvy6265%49%41 13.33
HarvardIvy1110%22%
PennIvy1520%15%
YaleIvy1560%13%
ColumbiaIvy2240%1%
CornellIvy2650%0%
BrownIvy2740%0%
DartmouthIvy3060%0%
MonmouthMAAC7849%39%47 12.84
St. PetersMAAC1090%16%
IonaMAAC1260%16%
SienaMAAC1810%19%
CanisiusMAAC1850%4%
RiderMAAC2030%2%
FairfieldMAAC2040%3%
NiagaraMAAC2610%0%
QuinnipiacMAAC2830%0%
ManhattanMAAC2840%0%
MaristMAAC3180%0%
AkronMAC1144%21%65 13.83
OhioMAC1020%24%17.68
BuffaloMAC1230%13%
Eastern MichiganMAC1290%9%
ToledoMAC1350%7%
Kent StMAC1460%8%
Western MichiganMAC1540%8%
Ball StMAC1750%7%
Northern IllinoisMAC2120%2%
Central MichiganMAC2330%1%
Bowling GreenMAC2450%0%
Miami OHMAC2810%0%
North Carolina CentralMEAC1590%57%16.00
Norfolk StMEAC2930%16%
HamptonMEAC3100%8%
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC3140%5%
Savannah StMEAC3150%0%20.00
Morgan StMEAC3240%7%
HowardMEAC3350%2%
South Carolina StMEAC336
Delaware StMEAC3380%1%
Bethune CookmanMEAC3400%1%
Coppin StMEAC3420%1%
Florida A&MMEAC3440%0%
North Carolina A&TMEAC3490%0%
Wichita StMVC1095%78%30 9.42
Illinois StMVC4494%13%31 12.56
Loyola ChicagoMVC970%4%
Missouri StMVC1360%1%
Southern IllinoisMVC151
EvansvilleMVC1630%1%
Northern IowaMVC1670%1%
Indiana StMVC1940%0%
BradleyMVC2180%0%
DrakeMVC2560%0%
NevadaMWC6067%36%40 12.27
Colorado StMWC923%11%67 17.74
San Diego StMWC830%17%17.81
Boise StMWC1000%12%
Fresno StMWC1040%9%
New MexicoMWC1240%7%
WyomingMWC1410%3%
Utah StMWC1450%3%
San Jose StMWC2050%0%
Air ForceMWC2190%0%
UNLVMWC2510%2%
Mount St. MarysNEC2160%50%16.04
WagnerNEC2430%31%
LIU BrooklynNEC2520%0%17.83
St. Francis PANEC2540%11%
Robert MorrisNEC2630%8%
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC2660%0%
BryantNEC2760%0%
Sacred HeartNEC2990%0%
Central ConnecticutNEC3410%0%
St. Francis NYNEC3460%0%
BelmontOVC8416%62%58 13.75
Tennessee StOVC1640%0%
Jacksonville StOVC1870%6%
Murray StOVC1970%10%
Morehead StOVC1990%10%
Tennessee MartinOVC2100%10%
Southeast Missouri StOVC2220%3%
Eastern IllinoisOVC2230%0%
Tennessee TechOVC2580%0%
Eastern KentuckyOVC2700%0%
Austin PeayOVC2880%0%
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC317
OregonP1217100%34%7 1.94
UCLAP1212100%36%8 2.69
ArizonaP1222100%18%14 2.99
USCP126570%1%39 10.53
CaliforniaP124646%6%52 12.54
UtahP12544%3%63
StanfordP12961%0%78
ColoradoP12770%1%
Arizona StP121280%0%
WashingtonP121710%0%
Washington StP122010%0%
Oregon StP122710%0%
BucknellPat800%62%14.43
LehighPat1190%21%
Boston UniversityPat1860%12%
NavyPat2140%3%
Holy CrossPat2150%2%
ArmyPat2350%1%
Loyola MDPat2480%0%
ColgatePat2690%0%
AmericanPat3080%0%
LafayettePat3300%0%
UT ArlingtonSB7246%41%51 12.34
Arkansas StSB1170%14%
Georgia StSB1200%15%
Louisiana LafayetteSB1420%7%
Georgia SouthernSB1580%11%
TroySB1690%4%
Texas StSB1930%3%
Coastal CarolinaSB1960%2%
South AlabamaSB2310%1%
Little RockSB2490%1%
Louisiana MonroeSB2550%1%
Appalachian StSB2640%0%
East Tennessee StSC696%31%62 14.47
FurmanSC1061%17%74 17.80
ChattanoogaSC1100%19%
North Carolina GreensboroSC1210%15%17.52
MercerSC1430%6%
WoffordSC1480%7%
SamfordSC1660%3%
The CitadelSC2860%0%
Western CarolinaSC3200%0%
VMISC3270%0%
KentuckySEC7100%45%6 2.35
FloridaSEC5100%38%9 3.27
South CarolinaSEC2899%6%25 7.54
ArkansasSEC4292%4%32 8.99
VanderbiltSEC4042%2%54 14.40
GeorgiaSEC5318%1%56 17.64
AlabamaSEC634%1%64
MississippiSEC811%0%75
TennesseeSEC581%0%76
Texas A&MSEC560%1%
AuburnSEC790%0%
Mississippi StSEC990%0%
LSUSEC1550%0%
MissouriSEC1680%0%
New OrleansSlnd1730%27%16.09
Houston BaptistSlnd2110%10%
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd2130%14%17.74
Stephen F AustinSlnd2250%27%
LamarSlnd2260%6%
Sam Houston StSlnd2270%11%17.84
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd2320%5%
Abilene ChristianSlnd2920%0%20.00
Incarnate WordSlnd3000%0%20.00
Northwestern StSlnd3030%0%
Central ArkansasSlnd3040%0%
Nicholls StSlnd3090%0%
McNeese StSlnd3160%0%
South DakotaSum1340%19%15.81
Fort WayneSum1440%23%17.78
North Dakota StSum1470%19%17.20
DenverSum1830%11%
Nebraska OmahaSum1880%9%
South Dakota StSum1910%12%
IUPUISum2000%7%
Oral RobertsSum2370%0%
Western IllinoisSum2960%1%
Texas SouthernSWAC2020%60%15.96
Alcorn StSWAC2870%0%20.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC3110%6%
SouthernSWAC3210%16%
Jackson StSWAC3260%8%
Grambling StSWAC3310%5%
Alabama StSWAC3430%2%
Mississippi Valley StSWAC3450%1%
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC3470%1%
Alabama A&MSWAC3510%0%
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC1053%42%66 15.42
New Mexico StWAC1030%45%17.16
Grand CanyonWAC1790%0%20.00
Utah ValleyWAC1950%6%
UMKCWAC2200%5%
SeattleWAC2730%1%
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC307
Chicago StWAC3390%0%
GonzagaWCC1100%75%2 1.25
St. MarysWCC14100%21%22 6.23
BYUWCC706%3%60
San FranciscoWCC1070%0%
Santa ClaraWCC1400%0%
Loyola MarymountWCC1700%0%
PacificWCC2440%0%
San DiegoWCC2570%0%
PortlandWCC2790%0%
PepperdineWCC2940%0%
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1 comment:

  1. UnknownMarch 2, 2017 at 8:47 AM

    SMU has a 40% chance at the conference title and 100% chance at a bid. They should have been listed as first in the American Athletic.

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