Tuesday, March 14, 2017

East Bracket: Villanova over Duke (UVa and SMU also win 2)

This blog breaks down all four double header of games played in the East Region, which are the games that appear in the upper left corner of brackets. It shows the top 10 players on the floor for each of these double headers, and gives details on which factors give advantages to which teams.

Villanova wins this bracket based on 9 of 10 factors, usually beating Duke, however the system that analyzes the way teams match-up on steals and three-pointers projects Virginia as the Eastern Champion. This

Click here for the grid showing the results of the entire tournament using 10 different approaches. If you simply want to fill out a bracket quickly, you can go straight to that link and fill out your bracket in about two minutes choosing any of the 10 options. That post also explains the 10 different approaches. Many more stories appear here, and you can sort the rating for all 4000+ players and see who is injured by clicking on www.valueaddbasketball.com.

Buffalo 1st Two Rounds 

East: No. 1 Villanova vs. No. 6 Mt. St. Mary’s/New Orleans

East: No. 8 Wisconsin vs. No. 9 Virginia Tech

10 Most Valuable Players in this group
2, Josh Hart #3, Villanova
11, Ethan Happ #22, Wisconsin
25, Jalen Brunson #1, Villanova
31, Mikal Bridges #25, Villanova
45, Erik Thomas #14, New Orleans
65, Zach LeDay #32, Virginia Tech
115, Kris Jenkins #2, Villanova
122, Nigel Hayes #10, Wisconsin
173, Zak Showalter #3, Wisconsin
184, Bronson Koenig #24, Wisconsin
Health: Huge loss to Virginia Tech of 224nd ranked Chris Clarke
Hot: Nova coming off Big East title, Wisconsin dropped from 10th to 23rd since early February.

“Home” Advantage: Getting to Buffalo through the snow easiest for Villanova, hardest for New Orleans if they survive.

Possible “style/home” edge upset: Virginia Tech has best style chance at upset as the 9th best 3-point shooting team against a Villanova team that is only 300th in forcing teams to shoot a 2-pointer instead of a 3-pointer. Villanova only 81st best at protecting the ball, which would give Wisconsin (41st at steals) a much better shot at upset than Virginia Tech (347th of 351).

Orlando 1st two rounds

East: No. 5 Virginia vs. No. 12 UNC Wilmington

East: No. 4 Florida vs. No. 13 East Tennessee State

Top 10 players
44, Devontae Cacok #15, UNC Wilmington
69, KeVaughn Allen #5, Florida
87, Devin Robinson #1, Florida
93, London Perrantes #32, Virginia
106, Isaiah Wilkins #21, Virginia
230, Denzel Ingram #10, UNC Wilmington
248, TJ Cromer #0, East Tennessee St.
253, Canyon Barry #24, Florida
281, Devon Hall #0, Virginia
288, Chris Chiozza #11, Florida

Possible “style/home” edge upset: Florida does not allow teams to get off three-pointers and has the big home advantage in their state, hurting East Tennessee State (44th in 3-pointers).

Tulsa 1st two rounds
East: No. 6 SMU vs. No. 11 Providence/USC
East: No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 14 New Mexico State

Top 10 players
15, Semi Ojeleye #33, SMU
18, Johnathan Motley #5, Baylor
32, Sterling Brown #3, SMU
52, Shake Milton #1, SMU
66, Ben Moore #0, SMU
105, Manu Lecomte #20, Baylor
178, Jarrey Foster #10, SMU
197, Jo Lual-Acuil #0, Baylor
203, Emmitt Holt #15, Providence
205, Ishmail Wainright #24, Baylor

Scott Drew continues to guide Baylor.

Baylor has slid a little from 7th in the final weeks, while SMU is the hottest team in the league with only a 2-point loss at Cincinnati preventing them from finishing 26-0.

USC’s Andy Enfield proved himself with the Sweet 16 run at Florida Gulf Coast, has a former Maxim cover wife, beautiful children, millions of dollars, and an up and coming program – but with one of the youngest teams in the country some are questioning if they were quite ready for a bid. Then again, that’s what they said about Syracuse last year and VCU several years ago before both made the Final Four.

Healthy: New Mexico State is better with Sidy N'dir playing.

Possible “style/home” edge upset: Baylor and SMU both sites close to home in the openers to try to get to each other in the 2nd round. 

Greenville, South Carolina 1st two Rounds
East: No. 7 South Carolina vs. No. 10 Marquette
East: No. 2 Duke vs. No. 15 Troy

1, Sindarius Thornwell #0 (+1 if all season), South Carolina
6, Luke Kennard #5, Duke
101, Amile Jefferson #21, Duke
131, Jayson Tatum #0 (+1 if all season), Duke
211, Grayson Allen #3, Duke
218, Luke Fischer #40, Marquette
240, Chris Silva #30, South Carolina
259, Andrew Rowsey #30, Marquette
266, Wesley Person #3, Troy
315, Markus Howard #0, Marquette

Healthy: Duke and South Carolina rank even higher with Thornwell and Tatum out – and Marquette could drop if Fischer (shoulder) cannot play Thursday.

Not only is South Carolina’s Sindarius Thornwell the No. 1 ranked player in the country at www.valueaddbasketball.com, but he would have rated even higher if had not missed six games. Marquette’s team is No. 1 in the nation in 3-pointers, and Markus Howard would break the all-time record of 56% if he hit 7 of 9 this weekend – a tough task against two of the toughest defenses in the country to get 3-pointers off against.

Unfortunately for whoever wins between South Carolina and Marquette, Duke is next up with four players who would be in the top 100 if Grayson Allen had not lost his cool and Tatum had played the whole season.

Possible “style/home” edge upset: Big South Carolina style edge as they are 21st in steals, and Marquette is terrible (224th) in protecting the ball, which could be a huge edge in light of the virtual home crowd for South Carolina. Marquette relies on being 1st in the country in 3-point shooting, but South Carolina’s suffocating defense is 87th best at forcing opponents to shoot 2-pointers, meaning Marquette must hope Luke Fischer can play through an injured shoulder to get an inside game. Duke absolutely denies the 3-pointers (7th best in forcing 2-pointers), should Marquette get through.

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