East Bracket: Villanova over Duke (UVa and SMU also win 2)

This blog breaks down all four double header of games played in the East Region, which are the games that appear in the upper left corner of brackets. It shows the top 10 players on the floor for each of these double headers, and gives details on which factors give advantages to which teams.

Villanova wins this bracket based on 9 of 10 factors, usually beating Duke, however the system that analyzes the way teams match-up on steals and three-pointers projects Virginia as the Eastern Champion. This

Click here for the grid showing the results of the entire tournament using 10 different approaches. If you simply want to fill out a bracket quickly, you can go straight to that link and fill out your bracket in about two minutes choosing any of the 10 options. That post also explains the 10 different approaches. Many more stories appear here, and you can sort the rating for all 4000+ players and see who is injured by clicking on www.valueaddbasketball.com.

Buffalo 1st Two Rounds 

East: No. 1 Villanova vs. No. 6 Mt. St. Mary’s/New Orleans

East: No. 8 Wisconsin vs. No. 9 Virginia Tech

10 Most Valuable Players in this group

2, Josh Hart #3, Villanova

11, Ethan Happ #22, Wisconsin

25, Jalen Brunson #1, Villanova

31, Mikal Bridges #25, Villanova

45, Erik Thomas #14, New Orleans

65, Zach LeDay #32, Virginia Tech

115, Kris Jenkins #2, Villanova

122, Nigel Hayes #10, Wisconsin

173, Zak Showalter #3, Wisconsin

184, Bronson Koenig #24, Wisconsin

Health: Huge loss to Virginia Tech of 224nd ranked Chris Clarke

Hot: Nova coming off Big East title, Wisconsin dropped from 10^th to 23^rd since early February.

“Home” Advantage: Getting to Buffalo through the snow easiest for Villanova, hardest for New Orleans if they survive.

Possible “style/home” edge upset: Virginia Tech has best style chance at upset as the 9^th best 3-point shooting team against a Villanova team that is only 300^th in forcing teams to shoot a 2-pointer instead of a 3-pointer. Villanova only 81^st best at protecting the ball, which would give Wisconsin (41^st at steals) a much better shot at upset than Virginia Tech (347^th of 351).

Orlando 1st two rounds

East: No. 5 Virginia vs. No. 12 UNC Wilmington

East: No. 4 Florida vs. No. 13 East Tennessee State

Top 10 players

44, Devontae Cacok #15, UNC Wilmington

69, KeVaughn Allen #5, Florida

87, Devin Robinson #1, Florida

93, London Perrantes #32, Virginia

106, Isaiah Wilkins #21, Virginia

230, Denzel Ingram #10, UNC Wilmington

248, TJ Cromer #0, East Tennessee St.

253, Canyon Barry #24, Florida

281, Devon Hall #0, Virginia

288, Chris Chiozza #11, Florida

Possible “style/home” edge upset: Florida does not allow teams to get off three-pointers and has the big home advantage in their state, hurting East Tennessee State (44^th in 3-pointers).

Tulsa 1^st two rounds
East: No. 6 SMU vs. No. 11 Providence/USC
East: No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 14 New Mexico State

Top 10 players

15, Semi Ojeleye #33, SMU

18, Johnathan Motley #5, Baylor

32, Sterling Brown #3, SMU

52, Shake Milton #1, SMU

66, Ben Moore #0, SMU

105, Manu Lecomte #20, Baylor

178, Jarrey Foster #10, SMU

197, Jo Lual-Acuil #0, Baylor

203, Emmitt Holt #15, Providence

205, Ishmail Wainright #24, Baylor

Scott Drew continues to guide Baylor.

Baylor has slid a little from 7^th in the final weeks, while SMU is the hottest team in the league with only a 2-point loss at Cincinnati preventing them from finishing 26-0.

USC’s Andy Enfield proved himself with the Sweet 16 run at Florida Gulf Coast, has a former Maxim cover wife, beautiful children, millions of dollars, and an up and coming program – but with one of the youngest teams in the country some are questioning if they were quite ready for a bid. Then again, that’s what they said about Syracuse last year and VCU several years ago before both made the Final Four.

Healthy: New Mexico State is better with Sidy N'dir playing.

Possible “style/home” edge upset: Baylor and SMU both sites close to home in the openers to try to get to each other in the 2^nd round. 

Greenville, South Carolina 1^st two Rounds
East: No. 7 South Carolina vs. No. 10 Marquette
East: No. 2 Duke vs. No. 15 Troy

1, Sindarius Thornwell #0 (+1 if all season), South Carolina

6, Luke Kennard #5, Duke

101, Amile Jefferson #21, Duke

131, Jayson Tatum #0 (+1 if all season), Duke

211, Grayson Allen #3, Duke

218, Luke Fischer #40, Marquette

240, Chris Silva #30, South Carolina

259, Andrew Rowsey #30, Marquette

266, Wesley Person #3, Troy

315, Markus Howard #0, Marquette

Healthy: Duke and South Carolina rank even higher with Thornwell and Tatum out – and Marquette could drop if Fischer (shoulder) cannot play Thursday.

Not only is South Carolina’s Sindarius Thornwell the No. 1 ranked player in the country at www.valueaddbasketball.com, but he would have rated even higher if had not missed six games. Marquette’s team is No. 1 in the nation in 3-pointers, and Markus Howard would break the all-time record of 56% if he hit 7 of 9 this weekend – a tough task against two of the toughest defenses in the country to get 3-pointers off against.

Unfortunately for whoever wins between South Carolina and Marquette, Duke is next up with four players who would be in the top 100 if Grayson Allen had not lost his cool and Tatum had played the whole season.

Possible “style/home” edge upset: Big South Carolina style edge as they are 21^st in steals, and Marquette is terrible (224^th) in protecting the ball, which could be a huge edge in light of the virtual home crowd for South Carolina. Marquette relies on being 1^st in the country in 3-point shooting, but South Carolina’s suffocating defense is 87^th best at forcing opponents to shoot 2-pointers, meaning Marquette must hope Luke Fischer can play through an injured shoulder to get an inside game. Duke absolutely denies the 3-pointers (7^th best in forcing 2-pointers), should Marquette get through.