Tuesday, March 14, 2017

Bracket Winners: Gonzaga (overall), Villanova (Top 3 Players, Experience, Hot), UNC (Vegas), Kentucky (NBA)

Bracket Winners: Gonzaga (surprise overall), Villanova (Top 3 Players, Experience, Hot), UNC (Vegas), Kentucky (NBA)

The following table lists the teams in the order in which they appear on 2017 March Madness brackets. Brackets must be in by Thursday morning on March 16 before the games start, but some leagues may have an earlier deadline. If you simply want to fill out your bracket and be done with it, you can just count the lines below and turn in your bracket to get it off your step.

If you would like to see pictures of each of the four brackets filled out with explanations of which factors favor which teams and the top 10 players in each double header, you can click to see why UNC has a slight edge in the South Region, Kansas nudging Louisville and Iowa State in the Midwest Region, Gonzaga's chance to overcome skeptics to win the West Region, and Villanova's path to win the East Region and try to repeat. Just remember, the initial odds posted by Las Vegas gave no team more than a 9% chance of winning the title (UNC edged Villanova 9% to 8.3% in USA Today after Duke and Kansas initially led).

You can click here for my many college basketball stories, on www.valueaddbasketball.com for the rankings of all 4000+basketball players, or click on www.pudnersports.com to see the 8 breakdowns - one for each half of the bracket.

The following columns are:

% title - Las Vegas gives no team more than a 9 percent chance of winning the title (UNC is 9.0% exactly). To figure this out, you must look at the odds listed by USA Today, and convert them to percentages, at which case you see that Vegas has built more than a 70% margin into any bets. When we take those percentages out, the % titles below add up to 100%. Another reason not to be, the house always wins!

  1. Overall is a combination of the 9 bracket proposals that follow, so if you want to follow the overall bracket you would click on Villanova 4 times, or write them out on 4 lines, then fill in Wisconsin on one line, etc. In this case, Villanova would make the Final Four and Gonzaga would win the title.
  2. Vegas is based on the team given the best percentage chance of winning the title in Vegas beating each new opponent - in this case click on Villanova 5 times to have them lose to UNC in the title game.
  3. KenPom.com goes by the team ranked better at that site, which gives Villanova in the Final Four before losing to eventual champion Gonzaga.
  4. Top 3 Players is based on a theory by Al McGuire that it takes 3 1/2 stars to win a championship. The top players can be more important than deep benches in the tournament, so this ranks teams based on the best three players each team has according to www.valueaddbasketball.com, and if it comes to the top three players Villanova would be on six lines as the champion.
  5. NBA indicates the team with the most NBA talent - based on how many players they have and how high they are likely to go in the next two drafts - and once again that would make Kentucky the champion.
  6. Healthy adjusts the KenPom rating in No. 3 above with adjustments for any players who is now injured or has actually made the team better by returning during the season. That value is determined by the players ranking at www.valueaddbasketball.com.
  7. Experience adjust the KenPom rating by how experienced the team is - also determined by KenPom.com.
  8. Coach adjusts the KenPom rating for coaches with history of success in the tournament.
  9. Hot adjusts KenPom for how much they have improved or declined in their KenPom rating over the past month.
  10. Venue adjusts the KenPom rating based on if a particular team was given a tournament site close to home where they will have an advantage.

RegionTeam%titleOverallVegasKenpomTop3 PlayersNBAHealthyExp.CoachHotVenueMatchup
EastMount St. Mary's0.0%
EastNew Orleans0.0%
EastVirginia Tech0.3%
EastUNC Wilmington0.2%
EastEast Tennessee St.0.2%
EastNew Mexico St.0.1%
EastSouth Carolina0.4%111112
WestSouth Dakota St.0.0%
WestNotre Dame1.2%11122121111
WestWest Virginia1.9%22211212222
WestFlorida St.1.5%22213222222
WestFlorida Gulf Coast0.1%
WestSaint Mary's0.4%11331131311
WestNorth Dakota0.1%
MWNorth Carolina Central0.0%
MWUC Davis0.0%
MWMiami FL0.4%11111111
MWMichigan St.0.4%111
MWIowa St.1.2%2115112441
MWRhode Island0.2%111
MWOklahoma St.0.4%31
MWJacksonville St.0.1%
SthNorth Carolina9.0%56534553553
SthTexas Southern0.0%
SthSeton Hall0.3%11
SthMiddle Tennessee0.3%2111
SthWake Forest0.2%11
SthKansas St.0.2%
SthKent St.0.1%
SthWichita St.0.8%11111131315
SthNorthern Kentucky0.1%
RegionTeam%titleOverallVegasKenpomTop3 PlayersNBAHealthyExp.CoachHotVenueMatchup

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