South Region: UNC beats Kentucky (Wichita based on match-ups, UCLA based on Top 3 Players)

This blog breaks down all four double header of games played in the South Region, which are the games that appear in the lower right corner of brackets. It shows the top 10 players on the floor for each of these double headers, and gives details on which factors give advantages to which teams.

UNC wins the entire national championshipo based on the Las Vegas odds, and Kentucky wins the whole title based on the most NBA talent on the court. UCLA wins the Region based on the top 3 players, and Wichita State based on specific matchups.

Click here for the grid showing the results of the entire tournament using 10 different approaches. If you simply want to fill out a bracket quickly, you can go straight to that link and fill out your bracket in about two minutes choosing any of the 10 options. That post also explains the 10 different approaches. Many more stories appear here, and you can sort the rating for all 4000+ players and see who is injured by clicking on www.valueaddbasketball.com.

Greenville, South Carolina
South: No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 16 Texas Southern
South: No. 8 Arkansas vs. No. 9 Seton Hall

Top 10 Players

37, Justin Jackson #44, North Carolina

68, Joel Berry #2, North Carolina

92, Kennedy Meeks #3, North Carolina

96, Angel Delgado #31, Seton Hall

139, Isaiah Hicks #4, North Carolina

155, Khadeen Carrington #0, Seton Hall

190, Daryl Macon #4, Arkansas

229, Desi Rodriguez #20, Seton Hall

277, Moses Kingsley #33, Arkansas

348, Marvin Jones #24, Texas Southern

Everyone in this group is red hot, with UNC letting one slip away against Duke, Arkansas improving from 59^th to 38^th, and Seton Hall moving up falling just short of making it six straight wins with a defeat of Villanova until Josh Hart scored a game-winning on an offensive rebound.

Health: UNC’s Theo Pinson makes them even better, but missing games kept him out of the top 100.

Possible “style/home” edge upset: UNC’s weakness is they do give up a lot of steals (179^th at protecting the ball) which could be a real problem against Seton Hall (68^th in steals) but a bigger problem against Arkansas (37^th in steals). Still, UNC’s huge home crowd for a game played just down the road in South Carolina should pull them through even if they get a close game.

Milwaukee, Wisconsin 1st two rounds
South: No. 5 Minnesota vs. No. 12 Middle Tennessee
South: No. 4 Butler vs. No. 13 Winthrop

Top 10 Players

58, Reggie Upshaw #30, Middle Tennessee

88, Giddy Potts #20, Middle Tennessee

102, Nate Mason #2, Minnesota

136, Jacorey Williams #22, Middle Tennessee

146, Keon Johnson #5, Winthrop

217, Andrew Chrabascz #45, Butler

244, Kelan Martin #30, Butler

273, Jordan Murphy #3, Minnesota

276, Amir Coffey #5, Minnesota

293, Kamar Baldwin #3, Butler

If it comes down to the top trio, Middle Tennessee dominates with three of the top four players.

Possible “style/home” edge upset: Middle Tennessee could get some steals (23^rd best) against Minnesota (93^rd best at protecting the ball). Winthrop should get up some 3-pointers (49^th) against a Butler team that is only 224^th in forcing opponents to shoot 2s instead of 3s, but Butler has huge home advantage in a Big East arena they play in every year.

Sacramento, California
South: No. 6 Cincinnati vs. No. 11 Kansas State/Wake Forest
South: No. 3 UCLA vs. No. 14 Kent State

Top 10 Players

9, John Collins #20, Wake Forest

10, Lonzo Ball #2, UCLA

38, Jacob Evans #1, Cincinnati

47, TJ Leaf #22, UCLA

51, Gary Clark #11, Cincinnati

59, Bryant Crawford #13, Wake Forest

79, Wesley Iwundu #25, Kansas St.

114, Jimmy Hall #35, Kent St.

133, Dean Wade #32, Kansas St.

175, Bryce Alford #20, UCLA

Potential coaching match up of great former players in Danny Manning (coaching Wake Forest) and Steve Alford (UCLA).

Kent State improved from 171^st to 141^st with a great end of season run.

Possible “style/home” edge upset: Cincinnati (19^th in steals) could wreak havoc on Kansas State (258^th in protecting the ball) or even Wake Forest (140^th). Wake Forest could make up some of that ground with 3-pointers (30^th in the country, while Cincy’s defense is only 197^th at forcing 2-point shots). UCLA has the big home court advantage and as the 6^th best three-point shooting team should have their way with any of the other four teams from behind the arc except perhaps Kansas State (83^rd best at forcing 2-point shots).

Indianapolis, Indiana
South: No. 7 Dayton vs. No. 10 Wichita State
South: No. 2 Kentucky vs. No. 15 Northern Kentucky

33, Malik Monk #5, Kentucky

76, Edrice Adebayo #3, Kentucky

80, De'Aaron Fox #0, Kentucky

98, Markis McDuffie #32, Wichita St.

108, Landry Shamet #11, Wichita St.

167, Scoochie Smith #11, Dayton

207, Conner Frankamp #33, Wichita St.

214, Charles Cooke #4, Dayton

228, Kyle Davis #3, Dayton

299, Derek Willis #35, Kentucky

Wichita has won 15 straight to move from 28^th to 8^th. Kentucky rolled through the SEC championship.

Possible “style/home” edge upset: Both Dayton and Wichita State allow a lot of 3-point attempts (283^rd and 267th respectively at forcing opponents to take 2’s). The problem for Dayton is that Wichita shoots 3-pointers even better than they do (3^rd in the nation vs. 29^th). Unfortunately for the winner of that game, Kentucky is one of the best at preventing both three-point attempts (51^st) and steals (6^th).