SI and ESPN Quoting Value Add Basketball back in 2011

Had forgotten about ESPN and Sports Illustrated picking up on Value Add Basketball and noting JJ Redick as the most valuable player here.

Team KenPom and Value Add Ratings Most Hurt by Injuries

Tres Tinkle was worth an extra 4.23 point per game to Oregon State as a freshman in 2016. Tinkle was off to a blistering start of this sophomore year, averaging 7.73 points per game through the first six games. If he kept up that pace, he would have finished as the 40th best player out of more than 4100 who played this year according to Value Add Basketball.

The future looked incredible in Oregon State's sixth game against Fresno State, when Tinkle put up an incredible 31 points, 10 rebounds and 6 steals, but the rest of the Beavers scored only 27 points combined in a narrow 63-58 loss. Unfortunately he broke his hand attempting to reject a dunk late in the game, and would not play again all year.

After 25 games of 0.0 Value Add Ratings because he could not play, Tinkle's overall Value Add for the season dropped to 1.59.

In calculating how much Oregon State was hurt by the broken hand, we subtract his final 1.59 overall average from the 7.73 pace he set in the six games he played to see it cost them 6.64 over the course of the season, but we take another 1.50 off of that total since every team has a few minor injuries. Put it together, and the loss of Tinkle cost Oregon State 5.14 points from their Team Value Add Ranking.
Value through those six games. Add those five points per game, and Oregon State starts 6-5 instead of 3-8 and goes into Pac-12 play with more confidence.

The only team hurt more than Oregon State by an injury over the course of a season was St. Joseph's due to the loss of Shavar Newkirk, who tore his ACL in the opening game of the A-10 season after scoring 20 points in eight of his first 11 games. His loss cost St. Joe's 6.98 points per game even after allowing for the 1.50.

The two biggest end of season injuries occurred to Georgia's Yante Maten, who had a chance to go All-American, and Chris Boucher, who might have given Oregon the inside play the need to beat UNC in the national semifinals. However, since both of these superstar players missed less than a half dozen games, their per game impact was not big enough to make this list. You can sort www.valueaddbasketball.com and type the "play" in the search field to pull up all info on major injuries.

Rnk	Team	Players Worth +2 points or more if healthy all year	Games Played	What if' Value Add
1	St. Joseph's	Shavar Newkirk (if played other 19 gms)	12 Gms	6.98
2	Oregon St.	Tres Tinkle (if played other 25 gms)	6 Gms	5.14
3	Texas Southern	Derrick Griffin (if played other 22 gms)	13 Gms	4.31
4	Nevada	Elijah Foster (if played other 28 gms)	7 Gms	3.94
5	Arizona	Allonzo Trier (if played other 19 gms)	18 Gms	3.76
6	Maryland Kings Co	Martez Harrison (if played other 27 gms)	5 Gms	3.75
7	Connecticut	Alterique Gilbert (if played other 29 gms)	3 Gms	2.89
8	Texas	Tevin Mack (if played other 18 gms)	15 Gms	2.87
9	Northwestern St.	Zeek Woodley (if played other 14 gms)	11 Gms	2.85
10	UC Irvine	Luke Nelson (if played other 17 gms)	17 Gms	2.83
11	Wagner	Romone Saunders (if played other 28 gms)	1 Gms	2.72
12	Ohio	Antonio Campbell (if played other 16 gms)	14 Gms	2.68
13	Texas El Paso	Terry Winn (if played other 29 gms)	2 Gms	2.48
14	Xavier	Edmond Sumner (if played other 17 gms)	21 Gms	2.4
15	Bowling Green	Jeffrey Uju (if played other 29 gms)	2 Gms	2.26
16	Nevada Las Vegas	Dwayne Morgan (if played other 24 gms)	8 Gms	2.06
17	Indiana	OG Anunoby (if played other 18 gms)	16 Gms	1.97
18	Creighton	Maurice Watson (if played other 16 gms)	18 Gms	1.73
19	Southern California	Bennie Boatwright (if played other 17 gms)	19 Gms	1.56
20	Louisiana St.	Craig Victor (if played other 23 gms)	8 Gms	1.55
21	Illinois Chicago	Dikembe Dixson (if played other 25 gms)	9 Gms	1.54
22	New Mexico St.	Sidy N'Dir (if played other 23 gms)	8 Gms	1.46
23	Princeton	Henry Caruso (if played other 22 gms)	7 Gms	1.41
24	Southern Mississippi	Tim Rowe (if played other 23 gms)	6 Gms	1.33
25	Santa Clara	KJ Feagin (if played other 13 gms)	19 Gms	1.33
26	Grand Canyon	Joshua Braun (if played other 9 gms)	20 Gms	1.27
27	UC Santa Barbara	Ami Lakoju (if played other 18 gms)	9 Gms	1.22
28	Oklahoma	Jordan Woodard (if played other 11 gms)	20 Gms	1.18
29	Ohio St.	Keita Bates-Diop (if played other 23 gms)	9 Gms	1.14
30	NJ Inst of Technology	Damon Lynn (if played other 10 gms)	19 Gms	1.13
31	Army	Adam Roe (if played other 23 gms)	8 Gms	1.12
32	Brigham Young	Kyle Davis (if played other 21 gms)	10 Gms	1.02
33	Northeastern	Jeremy Miller (if played other 15 gms)	16 Gms	0.98
34	Pennsylvania	Ryan Betley (if played other 10 gms)	18 Gms	0.95
35	Liberty	Caleb Homesley (if played other 24 gms)	8 Gms	0.93
36	Northeastern	Donnell Gresham (if played other 27 gms)	4 Gms	0.9
37	East Tennessee St.	Julian Walters (if played other 26 gms)	7 Gms	0.87
38	Connecticut	Terry Larrier (if played other 28 gms)	4 Gms	0.85
39	Tennessee	John Fulkerson (if played other 21 gms)	10 Gms	0.8
40	South Carolina	Sindarius Thornwell (if played other 5 gms)	31 Gms	0.79
41	New Mexico	Tim Williams (if played other 9 gms)	22 Gms	0.79
42	Temple	Josh Brown (if played other 26 gms)	6 Gms	0.78
43	Virginia Tech	Chris Clarke (if played other 9 gms)	24 Gms	0.76
44	Fresno St.	Karachi Edo (if played other 14 gms)	17 Gms	0.74
45	UC Santa Barbara	Jalen Canty (if played other 18 gms)	9 Gms	0.69
46	Washington	Markelle Fultz (if played other 6 gms)	25 Gms	0.69
47	George Mason	Danny Dixon (if played other 27 gms)	6 Gms	0.6
48	Binghamton	JC Show (if played other 19 gms)	10 Gms	0.58
49	Buffalo	Quate McKinzie (if played other 15 gms)	15 Gms	0.55
50	Duquesne	Josh Steel (if played other 30 gms)	2 Gms	0.53

ddd

Top 40 Freshman of 2017, Who Will Be Dominant Sophomores or NBA Players

Year after year, the stats prove even the greatest freshman basketball players are overrated. They simply turn the ball over too much, play bad defense and miss too many bad shots to be as valuable as players with at least one year under the belts. The only players who were truly the greatest players in the country their freshman season were Anthony Davis (greatest in history of ValueAdd in 2012), Michael Beasley (2008), Kevin Durant (2007) and Shelden Williams (2006).

This year, Value Add Basketball indicates 40 of the top 400 Value Add Basketball players were freshman, and for all the long-term potential of the top freshman Lonzo Ball, his value of 9.33 additional points a game for UCLA ranked 14th of all players. You can sort any current players or players going back to the 2002-03 season at www.valueaddbasketball.com.

Here is the list of those 40 freshman, and their projected value in 2018 if they play their sophomore season. Many will be in the NBA, so any team with one or more of the other two dozen on this list start with a huge advantage for the 2017-18 season.

2017 Rnk	Best Freshman 2017	Team	Value Add v5.0 Pts/Game	2018 Proj
14	Lonzo Ball #2	UCLA	9.33	NBA
21	Lauri Markkanen #10	Arizona	8.89	NBA
36	Malik Monk #5	Kentucky	7.79	NBA
37	Josh Jackson #11	Kansas	7.78	NBA
43	TJ Leaf #22	UCLA	7.62	NBA
58	Edrice Adebayo #3	Kentucky	7.31	NBA
67	Shamorie Ponds #2	St. John's	7.13	10.01
69	De'Aaron Fox #0	Kentucky	7.09	NBA
72	Bruce Brown #11	Miami FL	7.02	9.65
83	Mike Watkins #24	Penn St.	6.78	9.36
92	MaCio Teague #31	UNC Asheville	6.68	9.18
97	Josh Okogie #5	Georgia Tech	6.62	8.65
98	Justin Patton #23	Creighton	6.62	NBA
99	Dennis Smith #4	North Carolina St.	6.62	NBA
111	Jonathan Isaac #1	Florida St.	6.39	NBA
113	Zach Collins #32	Gonzaga	6.38	NBA
116	Robert Williams #44	Texas A&M	6.37	8.64
117	Markelle Fultz #20	Washington	6.36	NBA
123	Jarrett Allen #31	Texas	6.29	NBA
126	Nick Ward #44	Michigan St.	6.27	8.36
142	Grant Williams #2	Tennessee	6.13	8.16
145	Landry Shamet #11	Wichita St.	6.12	8.12
147	Miles Bridges #22	Michigan St.	6.06	NBA
162	Jayson Tatum #0	Duke	5.88	NBA
201	Andrew Jones #1	Texas	5.5	7.78
203	Dazon Ingram #12	Alabama	5.49	7.75
260	Rawle Alkins #1	Arizona	5.06	7.71
261	Kevin Huerter #4	Maryland	5.06	7.72
285	Amir Coffey #5	Minnesota	4.87	7.6
287	Anthony Cowan #0	Maryland	4.85	7.38
305	Kamar Baldwin #3	Butler	4.75	7.21
328	Justin Jackson #21	Maryland	4.6	7.09
342	Donte DiVincenzo #10	Villanova	4.47	7
347	Sam Hauser #10	Marquette	4.43	6.77
351	Danjel Purifoy #3	Auburn	4.41	6.68
356	De'Anthony Melton #22	Southern California	4.36	6.29
358	Markus Howard #0	Marquette	4.36	6.25
372	Mustapha Heron #5	Auburn	4.28	6.12
388	Sam Merrill #3	Utah St.	4.2	6.11
399	Marcus LoVett #15	St. John's	4.17	6.02

ddd

South Region: UNC beats Kentucky (Wichita based on match-ups, UCLA based on Top 3 Players)

This blog breaks down all four double header of games played in the South Region, which are the games that appear in the lower right corner of brackets. It shows the top 10 players on the floor for each of these double headers, and gives details on which factors give advantages to which teams.

UNC wins the entire national championshipo based on the Las Vegas odds, and Kentucky wins the whole title based on the most NBA talent on the court. UCLA wins the Region based on the top 3 players, and Wichita State based on specific matchups.

Click here for the grid showing the results of the entire tournament using 10 different approaches. If you simply want to fill out a bracket quickly, you can go straight to that link and fill out your bracket in about two minutes choosing any of the 10 options. That post also explains the 10 different approaches. Many more stories appear here, and you can sort the rating for all 4000+ players and see who is injured by clicking on www.valueaddbasketball.com.

Greenville, South Carolina
South: No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 16 Texas Southern
South: No. 8 Arkansas vs. No. 9 Seton Hall

Top 10 Players

37, Justin Jackson #44, North Carolina

68, Joel Berry #2, North Carolina

92, Kennedy Meeks #3, North Carolina

96, Angel Delgado #31, Seton Hall

139, Isaiah Hicks #4, North Carolina

155, Khadeen Carrington #0, Seton Hall

190, Daryl Macon #4, Arkansas

229, Desi Rodriguez #20, Seton Hall

277, Moses Kingsley #33, Arkansas

348, Marvin Jones #24, Texas Southern

Everyone in this group is red hot, with UNC letting one slip away against Duke, Arkansas improving from 59^th to 38^th, and Seton Hall moving up falling just short of making it six straight wins with a defeat of Villanova until Josh Hart scored a game-winning on an offensive rebound.

Health: UNC’s Theo Pinson makes them even better, but missing games kept him out of the top 100.

Possible “style/home” edge upset: UNC’s weakness is they do give up a lot of steals (179^th at protecting the ball) which could be a real problem against Seton Hall (68^th in steals) but a bigger problem against Arkansas (37^th in steals). Still, UNC’s huge home crowd for a game played just down the road in South Carolina should pull them through even if they get a close game.

Milwaukee, Wisconsin 1st two rounds
South: No. 5 Minnesota vs. No. 12 Middle Tennessee
South: No. 4 Butler vs. No. 13 Winthrop

Top 10 Players

58, Reggie Upshaw #30, Middle Tennessee

88, Giddy Potts #20, Middle Tennessee

102, Nate Mason #2, Minnesota

136, Jacorey Williams #22, Middle Tennessee

146, Keon Johnson #5, Winthrop

217, Andrew Chrabascz #45, Butler

244, Kelan Martin #30, Butler

273, Jordan Murphy #3, Minnesota

276, Amir Coffey #5, Minnesota

293, Kamar Baldwin #3, Butler

If it comes down to the top trio, Middle Tennessee dominates with three of the top four players.

Possible “style/home” edge upset: Middle Tennessee could get some steals (23^rd best) against Minnesota (93^rd best at protecting the ball). Winthrop should get up some 3-pointers (49^th) against a Butler team that is only 224^th in forcing opponents to shoot 2s instead of 3s, but Butler has huge home advantage in a Big East arena they play in every year.

Sacramento, California
South: No. 6 Cincinnati vs. No. 11 Kansas State/Wake Forest
South: No. 3 UCLA vs. No. 14 Kent State

Top 10 Players

9, John Collins #20, Wake Forest

10, Lonzo Ball #2, UCLA

38, Jacob Evans #1, Cincinnati

47, TJ Leaf #22, UCLA

51, Gary Clark #11, Cincinnati

59, Bryant Crawford #13, Wake Forest

79, Wesley Iwundu #25, Kansas St.

114, Jimmy Hall #35, Kent St.

133, Dean Wade #32, Kansas St.

175, Bryce Alford #20, UCLA

Potential coaching match up of great former players in Danny Manning (coaching Wake Forest) and Steve Alford (UCLA).

Kent State improved from 171^st to 141^st with a great end of season run.

Possible “style/home” edge upset: Cincinnati (19^th in steals) could wreak havoc on Kansas State (258^th in protecting the ball) or even Wake Forest (140^th). Wake Forest could make up some of that ground with 3-pointers (30^th in the country, while Cincy’s defense is only 197^th at forcing 2-point shots). UCLA has the big home court advantage and as the 6^th best three-point shooting team should have their way with any of the other four teams from behind the arc except perhaps Kansas State (83^rd best at forcing 2-point shots).

Indianapolis, Indiana
South: No. 7 Dayton vs. No. 10 Wichita State
South: No. 2 Kentucky vs. No. 15 Northern Kentucky

33, Malik Monk #5, Kentucky

76, Edrice Adebayo #3, Kentucky

80, De'Aaron Fox #0, Kentucky

98, Markis McDuffie #32, Wichita St.

108, Landry Shamet #11, Wichita St.

167, Scoochie Smith #11, Dayton

207, Conner Frankamp #33, Wichita St.

214, Charles Cooke #4, Dayton

228, Kyle Davis #3, Dayton

299, Derek Willis #35, Kentucky

Wichita has won 15 straight to move from 28^th to 8^th. Kentucky rolled through the SEC championship.

Possible “style/home” edge upset: Both Dayton and Wichita State allow a lot of 3-point attempts (283^rd and 267th respectively at forcing opponents to take 2’s). The problem for Dayton is that Wichita shoots 3-pointers even better than they do (3^rd in the nation vs. 29^th). Unfortunately for the winner of that game, Kentucky is one of the best at preventing both three-point attempts (51^st) and steals (6^th).

Midwest Region: Kansas Beats Louisville (but some methods show Iowa St. in Finals or Louisville)

This blog breaks down all four double header of games played in the Midwest Region, which are the games that appear in the upper right corner of brackets. It shows the top 10 players on the floor for each of these double headers, and gives details on which factors give advantages to which teams.

This bracket looks wide open however. Kansas is the overall winner despite Louisville and Iowa State splitting the nine categories evenly, and based on the "Top 3 Players" equation Iowa State goes all the way to the championship game.
,
Click here for the grid showing the results of the entire tournament using 10 different approaches. If you simply want to fill out a bracket quickly, you can go straight to that link and fill out your bracket in about two minutes choosing any of the 10 options. That post also explains the 10 different approaches. Many more stories appear here, and you can sort the rating for all 4000+ players and see who is injured by clicking on www.valueaddbasketball.com.

Tulsa 1^st two rounds
Midwest: No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 16 NC Central/UC Davis
Midwest: No. 8 Miami vs. No. 9 Michigan State

Top 10 Players

3, Frank Mason #0, Kansas

40, Davon Reed #5, Miami FL

49, Josh Jackson #11, Kansas

63, Bruce Brown #11, Miami FL

77, Devonte' Graham #4, Kansas

176, Nick Ward #44, Michigan St.

191, Miles Bridges #22, Michigan St.

308, Landen Lucas #33, Kansas

327, Brynton Lemar #0, UC Davis

381, Anthony Lawrence #3, Miami FL

Possible “style/home” edge upset: Kansas will have the big home advantage.

Milwaukee 1^st two rounds
Midwest: No. 5 Iowa State vs. No. 12 Nevada
Midwest: No. 4 Purdue vs. No. 13 Vermont

10 Best Players

7, Monte Morris #11, Iowa St.

17, Caleb Swanigan #50, Purdue

42, Marcus Marshall #1, Nevada

55, Nazareth Mitrou-Long #15, Iowa St.

120, Vincent Edwards #12, Purdue

171, Dakota Mathias #31, Purdue

174, Matt Thomas #21, Iowa St.

198, Cameron Oliver #0, Nevada

238, Deonte Burton #30, Iowa St.

256, Jordan Caroline #24, Nevada

Possible “style/home” edge upset: None. “Home” advantage: Two higher seed home edge, but Iowa State more so in second game including Deonte Burton coming back to the arena where he played for Marquette before transferring.

Sacramento, California
Midwest: No. 6 Creighton vs. No. 11 Rhode Island
Midwest: No. 3 Oregon vs. No. 14 Iona

36, Jordan Bell #1, Oregon

72, Khyri Thomas #2, Creighton

111, Justin Patton #23, Creighton

134, Hassan Martin #12, Rhode Island

151, Dillon Brooks #24, Oregon

226, Dylan Ennis #31, Oregon

263, Tyler Dorsey #5, Oregon

335, EC Matthews #0, Rhode Island

349, Rickey McGill #0, Iona

382, Kuran Iverson #23, Rhode Island

When one of the greatest coaching family’s of all time (Dan Hurley) is coaching Allen Iverson’s cousin, it is no surprise Rhode Island has improved from 50^th to 37^th. Greg McDermitt steadied the ship with a run to the Big East Finals after the team had fallen from 16^th to 27^th after Watson’s injury. He hopes to have a chance to take on Creighton’s former coach in Dana Altman of Oregon.

Healthy: Oregon and Creighton were hit with two of the biggest injuries in the country, however Oregon’s bench is good enough to offset most of the loss of Chris Boucher, while Creighton was one of the most hurt teams in the country after point guard Mo Watson went down for the season.

Possible “style/home” edge upset: Rhode Island is very good at denying 3-pointers (18^th in country) that Creighton needs (13^th best 3-point shooting).

Indianapolis, Indiana
Midwest: No. 7 Michigan vs. No. 10 Oklahoma State
Midwest: No. 2 Louisville vs. No. 15 Jacksonville State

8, Derrick Walton #10, Michigan

19, Donovan Mitchell #45, Louisville

21, Jawun Evans #1, Oklahoma St.

30, Jeffrey Carroll #30, Oklahoma St.

141, Phil Forte #13, Oklahoma St.

161, Moritz Wagner #13, Michigan

168, DJ Wilson #5, Michigan

235, Deng Adel #22, Louisville

255, Erik Durham #15, Jacksonville St.

289, Quentin Snider #4, Louisville

Michigan improved from 40^th to 21^st in the last month, winning the Big Ten title along the way after surviving a plane crash to enter the tournament as the hottest team in the country behind only SMU.

Possible “style/home” edge upset: Michigan doesn’t turn the ball over (9^th best at protecting the ball) and forces opponents to take 2-pointers (9^th best), which seems to stop the two chances Oklahoma State would have at the upset (29^th in steals, and 9^th in three-point shooting).

West Brackets: Gonzaga Beats Arizona (WVU, FSU Also Win 2)

This blog breaks down all four double header of games played in the West Region, which are the games that appear in the lower left corner of brackets. It shows the top 10 players on the floor for each of these double headers, and gives details on which factors give advantages to which teams.

Gonzaga wins this bracket based on all 10 factors, though many observers are picking Arizona to beat them.  The system that analyzes the way teams match-up on steals and three-pointers projects Virginia as the Eastern Champion. This

Click here for the grid showing the results of the entire tournament using 10 different approaches. If you simply want to fill out a bracket quickly, you can go straight to that link and fill out your bracket in about two minutes choosing any of the 10 options. That post also explains the 10 different approaches. Many more stories appear here, and you can sort the rating for all 4000+ players and see who is injured by clicking on www.valueaddbasketball.com.

Salt Lake City 1^st Two Rounds
West: No. 1 Gonzaga vs. No. 16 South Dakota State
West: No. 8 Northwestern vs. No. 9 Vanderbilt

Ten Best Players

5, Nigel Williams-Goss #5, Gonzaga

34, Mike Daum #24, South Dakota St.

110, Zach Collins #32, Gonzaga

118, Luke Kornet #3, Vanderbilt

138, Riley LaChance #13, Vanderbilt

170, Johnathan Williams #3, Gonzaga

181, Jeff Roberson #11, Vanderbilt

187, Przemek Karnowski #24, Gonzaga

239, Vic Law #4, Northwestern

257, Jordan Mathews #4, Gonzaga

Healthy: Northwestern’s Dererk Pardon would have also ranked in this top 10 if he had been with the team the entire season.

South Dakota State’s last six games were against higher ranked teams, and it beat all seven en route to the Summit League title and improving more than 30 spots on the rankings at www.kenpom.com.

Possible “style/home” edge upset: Gonzaga so good on both offense and defense on steals and 3-pointers that it’s hard to see an upset, even though Salt Lake is a relatively neutral site.

Buffalo 1^st two Rounds
West: No. 4 West Virginia vs. No. 13 Bucknell
West: No. 5 Notre Dame vs. No. 12 Princeton

Best 10 Players

4, Bonzie Colson #35, Notre Dame

20, Jevon Carter #2, West Virginia

119, Steven Cook #25, Princeton

149, Nathan Adrian #11, West Virginia

150, Zach Thomas #23, Bucknell

177, Devin Cannady #3, Princeton

180, Matt Farrell #5, Notre Dame

186, Nana Foulland #20, Bucknell

189, Steve Vasturia #32, Notre Dame

225, Tarik Phillip #12, West Virginia

Health: Princeton two small injuries.

Notre Dame vs. West Virginia features two of the greatest coaches in Mike Brey and Bob Huggins.

Possible “style/home” edge upset: Bucknell can hit threes (55^th best), but turns the ball over a ton (310^th best at protecting the ball), West Virginia has a huge edge (3^rd in steals). Home edge for Princeton heading into Buffalo snow – on rail perhaps?

Orlando 1st Two Rounds
West: No. 6 Maryland vs. No. 11 Xavier
West: No. 3 Florida State vs. No. 14 Florida Gulf Coast

Top 10 Players

73, Brandon Goodwin #0, Florida Gulf Coast

74, Trevon Bluiett #5, Xavier

126, Melo Trimble #2, Maryland

127, JP Macura #55, Xavier

129, Jonathan Isaac #1, Florida St.

232, Dwayne Bacon #4, Florida St.

249, Anthony Cowan #0, Maryland

261, Terance Mann #14, Florida St.

272, Demetris Morant #21, Florida Gulf Coast

283, Kevin Huerter #4, Maryland

Healthy: Xavier’s Edmond Sumner would have been in top 3 in this bracket if he was not injured.

Possible “style/home” edge upset: Winner of second game with home advantage in their second game.

Salt Lake City 1st Two Rounds
West: No. 7 St. Mary’s vs. No. 10 VCU
West: No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 15 North Dakota

12, Jock Landale #34, Saint Mary's

23, Lauri Markkanen #10, Arizona

82, JeQuan Lewis #1, VCU

95, Quinton Hooker #21, North Dakota

125, Justin Tillman #4, VCU

158, Calvin Hermanson #24, Saint Mary's

213, Joe Rahon #25, Saint Mary's

258, Rawle Alkins #1, Arizona

271, Kadeem Allen #5, Arizona

320, Dane Pineau #22, Saint Mary's

Possible “style/home” edge upset: Big style edge to VCU in opener as VCU just doesn’t allow 3-pointers (28^th best in denying them) that Saint Mary’s relies on (14^th best in country) while VCU (28^th in steals) can take advantage of the fact that Saint Mary’s is terrible at protecting the ball (229^th). If VCU and Arizona win, Arizona has the huge advantage in the home court to their north and the fact that they do NOT turn the ball over (26^th).

Vanderbilt is the only team in the group with any future NBA players to go up against Gonzaga’s NBA talent.

East Bracket: Villanova over Duke (UVa and SMU also win 2)

This blog breaks down all four double header of games played in the East Region, which are the games that appear in the upper left corner of brackets. It shows the top 10 players on the floor for each of these double headers, and gives details on which factors give advantages to which teams.

Villanova wins this bracket based on 9 of 10 factors, usually beating Duke, however the system that analyzes the way teams match-up on steals and three-pointers projects Virginia as the Eastern Champion. This

Click here for the grid showing the results of the entire tournament using 10 different approaches. If you simply want to fill out a bracket quickly, you can go straight to that link and fill out your bracket in about two minutes choosing any of the 10 options. That post also explains the 10 different approaches. Many more stories appear here, and you can sort the rating for all 4000+ players and see who is injured by clicking on www.valueaddbasketball.com.

Buffalo 1st Two Rounds 

East: No. 1 Villanova vs. No. 6 Mt. St. Mary’s/New Orleans

East: No. 8 Wisconsin vs. No. 9 Virginia Tech

10 Most Valuable Players in this group

2, Josh Hart #3, Villanova

11, Ethan Happ #22, Wisconsin

25, Jalen Brunson #1, Villanova

31, Mikal Bridges #25, Villanova

45, Erik Thomas #14, New Orleans

65, Zach LeDay #32, Virginia Tech

115, Kris Jenkins #2, Villanova

122, Nigel Hayes #10, Wisconsin

173, Zak Showalter #3, Wisconsin

184, Bronson Koenig #24, Wisconsin

Health: Huge loss to Virginia Tech of 224nd ranked Chris Clarke

Hot: Nova coming off Big East title, Wisconsin dropped from 10^th to 23^rd since early February.

“Home” Advantage: Getting to Buffalo through the snow easiest for Villanova, hardest for New Orleans if they survive.

Possible “style/home” edge upset: Virginia Tech has best style chance at upset as the 9^th best 3-point shooting team against a Villanova team that is only 300^th in forcing teams to shoot a 2-pointer instead of a 3-pointer. Villanova only 81^st best at protecting the ball, which would give Wisconsin (41^st at steals) a much better shot at upset than Virginia Tech (347^th of 351).

Orlando 1st two rounds

East: No. 5 Virginia vs. No. 12 UNC Wilmington

East: No. 4 Florida vs. No. 13 East Tennessee State

Top 10 players

44, Devontae Cacok #15, UNC Wilmington

69, KeVaughn Allen #5, Florida

87, Devin Robinson #1, Florida

93, London Perrantes #32, Virginia

106, Isaiah Wilkins #21, Virginia

230, Denzel Ingram #10, UNC Wilmington

248, TJ Cromer #0, East Tennessee St.

253, Canyon Barry #24, Florida

281, Devon Hall #0, Virginia

288, Chris Chiozza #11, Florida

Possible “style/home” edge upset: Florida does not allow teams to get off three-pointers and has the big home advantage in their state, hurting East Tennessee State (44^th in 3-pointers).

Tulsa 1^st two rounds
East: No. 6 SMU vs. No. 11 Providence/USC
East: No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 14 New Mexico State

Top 10 players

15, Semi Ojeleye #33, SMU

18, Johnathan Motley #5, Baylor

32, Sterling Brown #3, SMU

52, Shake Milton #1, SMU

66, Ben Moore #0, SMU

105, Manu Lecomte #20, Baylor

178, Jarrey Foster #10, SMU

197, Jo Lual-Acuil #0, Baylor

203, Emmitt Holt #15, Providence

205, Ishmail Wainright #24, Baylor

Scott Drew continues to guide Baylor.

Baylor has slid a little from 7^th in the final weeks, while SMU is the hottest team in the league with only a 2-point loss at Cincinnati preventing them from finishing 26-0.

USC’s Andy Enfield proved himself with the Sweet 16 run at Florida Gulf Coast, has a former Maxim cover wife, beautiful children, millions of dollars, and an up and coming program – but with one of the youngest teams in the country some are questioning if they were quite ready for a bid. Then again, that’s what they said about Syracuse last year and VCU several years ago before both made the Final Four.

Healthy: New Mexico State is better with Sidy N'dir playing.

Possible “style/home” edge upset: Baylor and SMU both sites close to home in the openers to try to get to each other in the 2^nd round. 

Greenville, South Carolina 1^st two Rounds
East: No. 7 South Carolina vs. No. 10 Marquette
East: No. 2 Duke vs. No. 15 Troy

1, Sindarius Thornwell #0 (+1 if all season), South Carolina

6, Luke Kennard #5, Duke

101, Amile Jefferson #21, Duke

131, Jayson Tatum #0 (+1 if all season), Duke

211, Grayson Allen #3, Duke

218, Luke Fischer #40, Marquette

240, Chris Silva #30, South Carolina

259, Andrew Rowsey #30, Marquette

266, Wesley Person #3, Troy

315, Markus Howard #0, Marquette

Healthy: Duke and South Carolina rank even higher with Thornwell and Tatum out – and Marquette could drop if Fischer (shoulder) cannot play Thursday.

Not only is South Carolina’s Sindarius Thornwell the No. 1 ranked player in the country at www.valueaddbasketball.com, but he would have rated even higher if had not missed six games. Marquette’s team is No. 1 in the nation in 3-pointers, and Markus Howard would break the all-time record of 56% if he hit 7 of 9 this weekend – a tough task against two of the toughest defenses in the country to get 3-pointers off against.

Unfortunately for whoever wins between South Carolina and Marquette, Duke is next up with four players who would be in the top 100 if Grayson Allen had not lost his cool and Tatum had played the whole season.

Possible “style/home” edge upset: Big South Carolina style edge as they are 21^st in steals, and Marquette is terrible (224^th) in protecting the ball, which could be a huge edge in light of the virtual home crowd for South Carolina. Marquette relies on being 1^st in the country in 3-point shooting, but South Carolina’s suffocating defense is 87^th best at forcing opponents to shoot 2-pointers, meaning Marquette must hope Luke Fischer can play through an injured shoulder to get an inside game. Duke absolutely denies the 3-pointers (7^th best in forcing 2-pointers), should Marquette get through.