Showing posts with label Indiana State basketball. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Indiana State basketball. Show all posts

Thursday, November 23, 2023

Missouri Valley and Return of Value Add Basketball Rankings

All-Missouri Valley Conf          Team             Value  AdjO  AdjD   Notes
Roman PennDrake8.3411296.512-seed, 27-8 (PG), Poss 24.8%
Tucker DeVriesDrake7.14111.996.512-seed, 27-8, Poss 26.9%
Rienk MastBradley7.06114.598.525-10, Poss 25.4%
Garrett SturtzDrake7.04124.296.512-seed, 27-8, Poss 14.6%
Robbie AvilaIndiana St.6.73119.9103.123-13, Poss 22.2%
2nd T-Missouri Valley ConfTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Drew FribergBelmont5.37124.3107.521-11, Poss 14.1%
Even BraunsBelmont5.33121.1107.521-11, Poss 17.1%
Cade TysonBelmont4.66115.5107.521-11, Poss 20.8%
Marcus DomaskSo Illinois4.58104.298.523-10, Poss 27.8%
Ben KrikkeValparaiso4.19112.9108.311-21, Poss 25.9%
HM-Missouri Valley ConfTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Bowen BornNo Iowa3.90104.5106.614-18 (PG), Poss 28.4%

Above is a very late All-Missouri Valley Conference team from the 2022-23 season, and we will be updating these and the top 300 players at www.valueaddbasketball.com to go along with the rankings going back to the 2001-02 season. While this system received rave reviews from Sports Illustrated, ESPN, Fox Sports and many others, last season we skipped because we lost the ability to rank all 4000 players who take the court for D1 action.

Note from below that Roman Penn actually just missed the All-American list with his 8.34 falling just below 8.56 for the last spot.

While the conference obviously lost a few potential national powers to realignment in the past decade, and its been a long time since Larry Bird was at Indiana State, they still boast four top 100 teams hoping to step it up just a bit to challenge in the tournament.

Team                      2023    2024     2025       Seed23   Rnk24
BelmontMVCMVCMVC 183
BradleyMVCMVCMVC 75
DrakeMVCMVCMVC1284
EvansvilleMVCMVCMVC 241
Illinois ChicagoMVCMVCMVC 178
Illinois St.MVCMVCMVC 209
Indiana St.MVCMVCMVC 94
Missouri St.MVCMVCMVC 96
Murray St.MVCMVCMVC 180
Northern IowaMVCMVCMVC 130
Southern IllinoisMVCMVCMVC 110
ValparaisoMVCMVCMVC 327

Better late than never - this is one of 32 lists of All-Conference teams based on the "resurrected" Value Add Basketball rankings at www.valueaddbasketball.com. The other 31 releases of Conference teams will all include this same explanation for the rest of the blog, including the 10 returning All-Americans and top 60 players from last season listed further down.

This paragraph is of interest to stat nerds only. The offensive ratings were easier to recreate, since the basis was to pull hundreds of players ranked as the most efficient last season (AdjO at www.kenpom.com) and adjusting their figures for their percent of possessions. A player who can produce about 1.2 points per time he has the ball who also gets the ball 25% of the time against tough competition and as part of a strong defense can be All-American level, but a player who doesn't get the ball nearly as often but produces even more at 1.3 points per possession can still be All-Conference even if fans feel other players handling and shooting the ball more are better due to higher points scored per game.

The new simplified system weighs their ability to produce points against the Adjusted Defense (AdjD) - that is how many points per 100 trips would their team allow against an average D1 team. This accounts both for defense and for level of competition. We also note if a player is a Point Guard, the most important position on the court.

The resulting "Value" listed in the third column is the Value Add of points the player would improve an average team over if he could not play if a decent replacement took his place. Zach Edey was by far the most valuable player in the country last year at 13.17 meaning typically he would turn a 65-70 loss for a team into a 72-64 win - a 13 point swing. The notes off to the first indicated the team's record, their seed if they made the tournament, and then if they went to the NBA in the 2023 draft or are projected to go in the 2024 or 2025 draft.

1st and 2nd Team Returning All-Americans; and Top 60 Players from Last Season
 
The table below is the list of the 30 most valuable players in college basketball for the 2022-23 season according to our simplified www.valueaddbasketball.com rankings. Obviously most of these top players finished their eligibility or went pro so are no longer playing. However, if we made this our All-American teams of returning players including transfers at their new school the headline would be from Creighton.

1st Team Returning All-Americans - Value Add Basketball calculates that Creighton now has two of the three most valuable players in 2022-23 in returning Ryan Kalkbrenner and Utah State transfer Steven Ashworth. Ironically, Thursday it was Colorado State that handed Creighton its first loss - a team that Ashworth had dominated four of seven times in conference games at Utah State. The other 1st Team All-Americans based on last year's Value Add would be J'Wan Roberts returning for Houston, and then Tylor Perry who transferred from North Texas to Kansas State.

Most Valuable Player for 2nd Year. However, the far and away Most Valuable Player in the Country could challenge Anthony DavisJon Scheyer and Zion Williamson for as the most Valuable college player of the century in the All-Time Value Add Basketball Rankings - Zach Edey who was almost 2 points better than anyone in the country last year at Purdue and has them at No. 1 this season.

2nd Team Returning All-Americans - The 6th most valuable returning player according to Value Add is Marquette Point Guard Tyler Kolek. He would be joined on a second team All-American squad of returning players by Tennessee's Santiago Vescovi, Texas transfer from Oral Roberts Max Abmas, Duke's Ryan Young, Arizona's Azuolas Tubelis and finally Cam Spencer, who transferred from Rutgers to UConn.

In all, 18 of the top 30 players finished their college careers, leaving those 10 returning All-Americans and then two other players - JaKobe Coles of TCU and USC's Boogie Ellis.
 
All-American 1st Team    Team               Value    AdjO  AdjDNotes                                                
Zach EdeyPurdue13.17125.994.51-seed, 29-6, nba 58 in 2024
Adama Sanogo (gone)Connecticut11.37122.690.94-seed, 31-8, Poss 26.4%
Marcus Sasser (gone)Houston11.25123.490.41-seed, 33-4, nba 25 in 2023
Ryan KalkbrennerCreighton10.80133.493.26-seed, 24-13, Poss 19.4%
Steven Ashworth (Creigh)Utah St.10.72127.798.910-seed, 26-9 (PG), Poss 21.6%
All-American 2nd TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Tylor Perry (K-State)North Texas10.37124.394.131-7, Poss 24.4%
Brandon Miller (gone)Alabama10.23117.088.21-seed, 31-6, nba 2 in 2023
Xavier Castaneda (gone)Akron9.94121.9103.422-11 (PG), Poss 29.4%
J'Wan RobertsHouston9.90127.990.41-seed, 33-4, Poss 18.4%
Jordan Hawkins (gone)Connecticut9.88121.290.94-seed, 31-8, nba 14 in 2023
All-American 3rd TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Jaime Jaquez (gone)UCLA9.80113.1882-seed, 31-6, nba 18 in 2023
Jalen Pickett (gone)Penn St.9.66118.7101.110-seed, 23-14 (PG), nba 32 in 2023
Jordan Walker (gone)UAB9.64114.797.929-10 (PG), Poss 30.6%
Tyler KolekMarquette9.6311896.72-seed, 29-7 (PG), Poss 24.1%
Santiago VescoviTennessee9.52114.287.54-seed, 25-11 (PG), Poss 18.8%
All-American 4th TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Max Abmas (Texas)Oral Roberts9.47120.2102.212-seed, 30-5 (PG), Poss 27.6%
Trayce Jackson-Davis (g)Indiana9.45118.597.24-seed, 23-12, nba 57 in 2023
Ryan YoungDuke9.37128.793.95-seed, 27-9, Poss 18.3%
Kendric Davis (grad)Memphis9.24111.196.18-seed, 26-9 (PG), Poss 31.6%
Drew Timme (grad)Gonzaga9.21119.699.33-seed, 31-6, Poss 30.6%
All-American 5th TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Markquis Nowell (gone)Kansas St.8.92111953-seed, 26-10 (PG), Poss 27.6%
Souley Boum (gone)Xavier8.87119.298.63-seed, 27-10 (PG), Poss 21.2%
Oscar Tshiebwe (gone)Kentucky8.83122.698.86-seed, 22-12, Poss 24.5%
Terence Lewis (gone)Louisiana8.74131.2102.913-seed, 26-8, Poss 20.3%
Darius McGhee (gone)Liberty8.68114.597.527-9, Poss 33.4%
All-American 6th TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Azuolas TubelisArizona8.68116.196.32-seed, 28-7, Poss 28.7%
Cam Spencer (UConn)Rutgers8.66119.490.819-15, Poss 19.8%
Sir'Jabari Rice (gone)Texas8.66116.392.12-seed, 29-9, Poss 23.4%
JaKobe ColesTCU8.64118.494.36-seed, 22-13, Poss 23.4%
Boogie EllisUSC8.56113.397.510-seed, 22-11 (PG), Poss 25.7%

Sunday, November 20, 2022

College Hoops 18 Greatest Teams In History of Other Conferences

The 18 great all-time teams that play in a conference that has fewer than six all-time great teams were put together in our "other teams" grouping. Our ratings are based on how the top 6 teams in each great conference have played against some of the greatest college basketball teams in history in the Value Add College Basketball Game (see details at the bottom) - and if we treated this group of other teams they would rank between the 7th best conference (the American Athletic) and the 8th best conference (the A10).

We have only played one game with the most exciting member of this group - Larry Bird who went up against Magic Johnson in perhaps the most important college basketball game in history.

The top 6 teams in this group so far have gone 6-8 against the other great all-time teams, and have a combined rating of 3.1. That means those teams average being 3.1 better than the average team IN THE GAME, but the average team in the game is about 21 points better than an average team.

Therefore the Gonzaga team's ranking of +8.7 means they are rated about 29.7 points better than the average team. That team narrowly missed the perfect season by losing the last game of the regular season to BYU, and then the title game to UNC.

The lists also features one Ivy League team - the Princeton squad that featured US Senator and Presidential candidate Bill Bradley.

While the West Coast Conference features three of the top five other teams, we only broke out conferences with at least six all-time great teams in the game. The other two great teams are the highest scoring team in the NCAA history, which is averaging winning 120-110 in their 1-1 start this year, and had the tragedy of Hank Gathers dying of a heart condition at the end of the season after having become the first player in history to lead the nation in rebounding and points. The third WCC team on the list is the great Bill Russell's 1956 team.



RnkGreat TeamYearKey PlayerWLPtsAllowRate
 Top 6 Other Conf  6878.877.63.1
1Gonzaga (WCC)2017Nigel Williams-Goss3369.863.08.7
2UNLV (MWC)1991Larry Johnson1176.575.57.3
3Loyola Marymount (WCC)1990Bo Kimble11119.5110.02.3
4Loyola-Chicago (WVC)1963Jerry Harkness0162.068.00.6
5San Francisco (WCC)1956Bill Russell0167.074.00.0
6Jacksonville (Asun)1970Artis Gilmore1178.075.0-0.3
7UTEP (TX Western, CUSA)1966Bobby Joe Hill2163.766.0-1.4
8San Diego St. (MWC)2011Kawhi Leonard2269.371.8-2.9
9UNLV (MWC)1987Armen Gilliam0164.082.0-3.4
10Holy Cross (Pat)1950Bob Cousy1188.089.5-5.2
11Seattle (WAC)1958Elgin Baylor0162.064.0-6.2
12Indiana St. (MVC)1979Larry Bird0169.076.0-7.8
13Wyoming (MWC)1943Ken Sailors0160.073.0-8.2
14North Carolina (MAAC)1957Lennie Rosenbluth0176.089.0-8.6
15Navy (Pat)1986David Robinson0161.077.0-9.0
16Princeton (Ivy)1965Bill Bradley0162.079.0-13.0
17Loyola-Chicago (MVC)2018Cameron Krutwig0359.375.0-13.9
18Niagara (MAAC)1970Calvin Murphy0168.084.0-16.6



We invented the Value Add Basketball Game, and since then have grown it to to 135 teams of all-time great teams and players. We have played 188 games to date, and 63,000 unique visitors have clicked on the game. 

Seven current conferences have at least six all-time great teams in the game. We decided to rank those conferences based on the average rating of their top six teams so far in our games against other teams.

Click on the game to play yourself - it contains everything you need to play the Value Add Basketball game, which lets you pit any of 136 great all-time college teams against each other. To pick your two teams it is best to click on this Google doc and print the pages of the teams you want (each team is one page). I track my games on this google sheet, but play your own for free!