Showing posts with label Rick Pitino. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Rick Pitino. Show all posts

Friday, December 15, 2023

Opposites Clash: Billy Donovan's Providence CRUSH Acie Law's Texas A&M - Move up to 33rd All-Time

Update: box score below. Billy Donovan's eight steals propel Providence 1987 to a 77-60 blowout of Texas A&M, surging the Friars from 87th to 33rd all-time in our game. Texas A&M drops from 101st to 155th in our www.kenpom.com type ratings. The "preseason" ratings listed on this sheet indicate where we believe the team would rank just based on how good the cards are, but then we adjust per results of games we play. The original blog starts with the preview.

Providence's unstoppable offense meets Texas A&Ms immovable offense.  Providence had only one big run, but it was all the way to a stunning 1987 Final Four under Rick Pitino with future great coach Billy Donovan running the point guard spot all 44 possessions in our game.

We were finally able to play only our second Value Add Basketball Game of the month, and the results and box score are below.

One thing you will note on Providence's starting lineup is they have four players with an extra number in "gets ball" while there are only three extra numbers in the 8-sided die. Therefore we need to pick which three get a dime to show they are the 6, 7 and 8 roll.  We skipped Carlton Screen as his shooting 20-sided die range is not quite as strong as the other three, so the dimes show left to right the 6 goes to Donovan's 7 to Darryl Wright and 8 to Steve Wright.


Texas A&M never made the final four but win at least one March Madness game in six straight seasons. However in this game Donovan picked Texas A&M clean with eight steals to completely disrupt them and Providence walked away with a 77-60 win to advance and play Wilt Chamberlain's Kansas 1957 in their second game.

The interesting thing is the defensive minded Aggies got the pace they wanted, with scores in the 60s and 70s while Providence prefers games in the 80s and 90s, but the Friars still prevailed easily. Note both teams had eventual NBA players, but Providence's Marty Conlon and the Aggies Donald Sloan were just starting their careers so backups, while the soon to be NBA player including Billy Donovan, who today got the better of the Aggies future NBA player Acie Law.

Pos      Texas A&M 2007          Pts  Reb  Stl  Blk  Fl  Ht      Actual Season
1-PGAcie Law931036'318.1 Pts, 3.3 Reb, 5.0 Ast-NBA
2-SGDominique Kirk921116'47.2 Pts, 3.3 Reb, 3.0 Ast
3-SFJosh Carter550136'711.8 Pts, 4.0 Reb, 2.4 Ast
4-PFAntanas Kavaliauskas950016'1011.9 Pts, 6.3 Reb, 1.6 Ast
5-CJoseph Jones750156'913.4 Pts, 6.8 Reb, 1.3 Ast
1-PGLogan Lee510016'20.8 Pts, 0.3 Reb, 0.8 Ast
2-SGDerrick Roland210016'40.8 Pts, 1.0 Reb, 0.7 Ast
3-SFDonald Sloan621016'35.2 Pts, 1.9 Reb, 1.8 Ast-NBA
4-PFMarlon Pompey450016'83.5 Pts, 2.5 Reb, 0.8 Ast
5-CBryan Davis410016'91.9 Pts, 2.6 Reb, 0.3 Ast
 20 Turnovers60303318  
         
         
PosProvidence 1987PtsRebStlBlkFlHtActual season
1-PGBilly Donovan1328026'020.6 Pts, 3.0 Reb, 7.1 Ast-NBA
2-SGPop Lewis1052016'411.8 Pts, 4.2 Reb, 2.6 Ast
3-SFDelray Brooks1370016'414.4 Pts, 3.9 Reb, 2.6 Ast
4-PFJacek Duda240026'113.4 Pts, 3.4 Reb, 0.2 Ast
5-CDave Kipfer1450116'711.7 Pts, 5.3 Reb, 1.0 Ast
1-PGCarlton Screen211016'05.2 Pts, 1.1 Reb, 2.4 Ast
2-SGDarryl Wright1111116'56.1 Pts, 2.2 Reb, 0.9 Ast
3-SFMarty Conlon230016'104.4 Pts, 2.9 Reb, 0.5 Ast-NBA
4-PFAbdul Shamsid-Deen210116'113.5 Pts, 2.5 Reb, 0.0 Ast
5-CSteve Wright830116'97.9 Pts, 4.8 Reb, 0.2 Ast
 13 Turnovers773212412 




Sunday, December 3, 2023

Montgomery YMCA, VCU Franklin Street Gym and Brushes With Hoops Hero Memories in New Great Teams

A couple of the newest great teams added to the Value AddBasketball Game included a personal connection with a couple of new player cards int he game. We posted pictures of all the new player cards here. We track all scores between our 184 great teams from the reigning UConn champs to the 1943 champs from Wyoming. More than 71,000 unique sports simulation fans have visited the free game.

Mississippi State’s 2005 team that destroyed Stanford in the NCAA tournament before losing to Duke included great 3-point shooter Jamall Edmondson, who was my teammate a few years later when we won the Montgomery YMCA championships. Calvin Duncan from VCU’s 1985 championship team was the star in a win over Steph Curry’s dad and #16 Virginia Tech – a game I watched in person not realizing I was so excited to be there I had left my car running outside the Richmond Coliseum the entire couple of hours.

The reason for the new teams to take us to 184  was a discovery this weekend ...

On the day of the SEC Football Championship that would put Alabama in the football playoffs, I discovered I accidentally did not have all-time great basketball teams in place for four of the SEC schools – both Mississippi schools, Vanderbilt and Texas A&M. My apologies. I double checked again all 80 schools scheduled to have a team in the one of the Power Conferences after the 2024 alignment, and realized I also did not have a Big East Providence team in the game.

Since five is an odd number of teams, I also added the likely the greatest “Mid-Major” team not yet in the game, the 11th ranked VCU squad that won a game in their 3rd straight NCAA tournament in 1985. I put all six teams in a tournament with two teams who had just had card adjustments when the block ranges were adjusted for Wilt Chamberlain and Bill Russell, to form the following 8-team tournament so that all 184 teams will have played a game once we play these four.

Here are the match-ups and we explain what the numbers mean at the bottom of the blog.

Match-ups in our 8-team tournament to try out all my new cards: 

1-seed vs. 8-seed

#54/#20 - Kansas - 1957 - Wilt Chamberlain (1-1, ave score 67.5-74.0), Rating 1.2 vs.

#170/#174 - Mississippi St. - 2005 - Lawrence Roberts (0-0) Rating -10.0

While the ratings of +1.2 to -10 indicates Wilt Chamberlain’s 1957 National Runner-up squad would be about and 11-point favorite against the 2005 Mississippi squad, I could see this match-up giving MSU a chance if you could really play the game.

Mississippi State did have two 7-footers in Marcus Campbell and Wesley Morgan, which would let them foul Wilt 10 times to send him to the line where he was human at 62%.

More importantly with Wilt being one of four players in history with the best block range in the game, the 65 and 66 dice rolls reject only 2-point shots, so the fact that Jamall Edmondson has one of the best 3-points made range in the game (1-5 on the 20-sided die) and Winsome Frazier shot a lot more and had almost as good a range (1-4) including hitting 6 of 8 three-pointers to destroy Stanford 93-70 in March Madness you could see them getting hot.

Jamall’s favorite play in our YMCA championship occurred when I cut to the hoop for one of his always perfect passes, but he lobbed the ball too high – I thought … It turned out the lob was actually for one of our other teammates who was a foot above me cutting from the other side for an alley-oop dunk.

As for our 1-seed in this tournament, Wilt was stopped from winning the title by two coaches with Marquette ties. UNC’s Frank McGuire forced  Kansas into turnovers to hold them to only 53 points in a 3-overtime game for the 54-53 win in the 1957 championship game. The next year former Marquette coach Tex Winter used a triple team against Wilt including telling the team all three needed to follow Chamberlain everywhere he went, even (he joked) to the rest room to give K-State a big upset. Back then you had to win your conference to go to the tournament, so that loss in the regular season left #7 ranked Kansas out of the tournament in Wilt’s only other year as K-State went to the Final Four.

The winner of that game will get the winner of our 4-seed vs. 5-seed game:

#85/#74 - Providence - 1987 - Billy Donovan (0-0), Rating -1.0 vs.

#74/#86 - Texas A&M - 2007 - Acie Law   (0-0), Rating -2.0.

Our middle game features an unbelievable offense directed by two of the greatest coaches ever – Rick Pitino and his point guard and future coach Billy Donovan. Their SRS was lower than most great teams in the game, but then they made an incredible Final Four run with one of the best offenses ever.

Texas A&M is almost the opposite, a dominant defense that ground teams down and made every shot tough, and won at least one game in six straight NCAA tournaments as a model of consistency, including this team that went to the Sweet 16.

 

2-Seed vs 7-Seed

#74/#45 - San Francisco - 1956 - Bill Russell (0-1, ave score 67-74), Rating +1.0 vs.

#113/#146 -  Mississippi - 2002 - Justin Reed (0-0), Rating -6.0.

Wilt’s old foe the great Bill Russell also has one of the four greatest shot-blocking cards and did lose their one Value Add Basketball Game against the great Arizona 2015 team, where they fell short 67-74.

Justin Reed rolled in as a rare 5-star recruit for Mississippi, and in this first freshman season was the go-to guy who took the Rebels to one of only two Sweet 16s in their history and one of only two times they finished the season ranked in the top 20. Reed stayed all four years before going onto the NBA.

The winner of that game faces one of the following two teams, including one I know very well:

3-seed vs 6 Seed

#80/#73 - Vanderbilt - 1993 - Bill McCaffrey (0-0), Rating -1.0 vs.

#125/#135 - VCU - 1985 - Calvin Duncan (0-0), Rating -5.0.

Bill McCaffrey’s transfer from Duke to Vanderbilt as a former McDonald’s All-American ignited an incredible offense that averaged 83 points per game and a Sweet 16 run.  Bill clearly brought great genes to the court as his brother Ed won three Super Bowls with the Broncos.

I grew up a mile from VCU’s court as an avid fan, and years later would once score 31 points in their gym as the state’s Republican legislative aides beat the Democratic legislative aides 52-51 with refs and a scoreboard at Franklin Street Gym.

Calvin Duncan led VCU to opening round wins in three straight NCAA tournaments and gave scares to big conference teams in the second round each year – battling near the end against Georgia, Syracuse and Alabama in consecutive years but falling short of a Sweet 16. It was a lockdown defense and patience offense that held teams to 62 points per game. With all respect to the stunning VCU run under Shaka Smart 25 years later, this was by far the greatest team in VCU history – finishing the season ranked 11th in the country, 12 points ahead of any other VCU team.

In Marquette intramurals I wore a "Cal" jersey, and once checked into the student health center on the way to a game to check out my ankles and knees. I was told to never play basketball again because at 20 years old my knee cartilage was already so worn. I took my crutches, walked five blocks to the gym, laid the crutches by the court and scored 21 points despite not being able to jump on my shots, and picked the crutches up and hobbled back home to throw ice in our tub and am still playing league ball at 58 years old.

VCUs coach JD Barnett focused the team on average points per trip down the court – basically fi 10guring out www.kenpom.com stats 17 years before they were calculated.

They were also ahead of their time with a stretch forward in 6-foot-8 Mike Schlegel who could pop out and hit what would later become a 3-pointer. Point guard Rolando Lamb battled Steph Curry’s dad Del for a win in the game I mentioned above watching without realizing I’d left my keys in the car. VCU closed the regular season by traveling to Memphis and battling them until near the end- a great showing that looked every better when Memphis went to the Final Four.

While no VCU player went to the NBA, Duncan was drafted but chose to join Athletes in Action, a Christian Group that played games to give their testimony at halftime. One NBA exec commented that they knew he was a good guy, but not THAT good. He is the pastor of Faith and Family Church in Richmond, Virginia.

This Sports Illustrated Story calculates Duncan hit 16 of 28 from 3-point range, and recounts him taking it inside to score on 7-foot-4 Ralph Sampson in a narrow 69-63 loss at #1 UVa. Their two points loss to Georgia in the second round on the NCAA was the only close game in Georgia's run to the Final 4 that year.

Explanation for making the cards:

For each match-up we list the team’s current rank among the all-time Value Add Basketball Game teams, followed by the rank based just on where we rank them based on how good their cards are. So Kansas is ranked #54 all-time now after starting 1-1, but we actually rank them as having the #20 best cards in the game. 

The “rating” after each team indicates how many points better or worse, we rank the team than the “average” great team. Understand the “average” great team is based on a team that is about +17 points better than the average team and made it to the Elite 8. We start with the SRS (Simple Rating System) based on scores and competition, then adjust up for a team that went past the Elite 8 or subtract for teams that did not make it that far, and we also adjust up for teams that provide thei were legit with multiple tournament runs.

Thursday, November 23, 2023

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (MAAC) and Return of Value Add Basketball Rankings

All-Metro Atlantic Athletic ConfTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Walter ClaytonIona7.99119.299.413-seed, 27-8, Poss 25.2%
Josh RobertsManhattan6.77132.1108.712-18, Poss 16.1%
Paul OtienoQuinnipiac5.83124.4105.320-12, Poss 14.8%
Javian McCollumSiena5.07106.6104.617-15 (PG), Poss 28.5%
Noah ThomassonNiagara4.32107.5108.116-15 (PG), Poss 30%

Above is a very late All-Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (MAAC) team from the 2022-23 season, and we will be updating these and the top 300 players at www.valueaddbasketball.com to go along with the rankings going back to the 2001-02 season. While this system received rave reviews from Sports Illustrated, ESPN, Fox Sports and many others, last season we skipped because we lost the ability to rank all 4000 players who take the court for D1 action.

Iona still looks like the clear team to beat, though not at the same level as the incredible squad one of the great all-time coaches Rick Pitino put together last season.  While in the end Iona lost by double digits like UConn's other 21 most recent non-Big East foes, Iona was the only team to actually lead the Huskies at halftime,39-37, at half time. The conference adds Merrimack and Sacred Heart from the NEC this season.

Team                     2023           2024        2025            Seed23   Rnk24
CanisiusMAACMAACMAAC 240
FairfieldMAACMAACMAAC 293
IonaMAACMAACMAAC13167
ManhattanMAACMAACMAAC 311
MaristMAACMAACMAAC 271
MerrimackNECNECMAAC 289
Mount St. Mary'sMAACMAACMAAC 268
NiagaraMAACMAACMAAC 307
QuinnipiacMAACMAACMAAC 276
RiderMAACMAACMAAC 250
Sacred HeartNECNECMAAC 224
Saint Peter'sMAACMAACMAAC 234
SienaMAACMAACMAAC 337

Better late than never - this is one of 32 lists of All-Conference teams based on the "resurrected" Value Add Basketball rankings at www.valueaddbasketball.com. The other 31 releases of Conference teams will all include this same explanation for the rest of the blog, including the 10 returning All-Americans and top 60 players from last season listed further down.

This paragraph is of interest to stat nerds only. The offensive ratings were easier to recreate, since the basis was to pull hundreds of players ranked as the most efficient last season (AdjO at www.kenpom.com) and adjusting their figures for their percent of possessions. A player who can produce about 1.2 points per time he has the ball who also gets the ball 25% of the time against tough competition and as part of a strong defense can be All-American level, but a player who doesn't get the ball nearly as often but produces even more at 1.3 points per possession can still be All-Conference even if fans feel other players handling and shooting the ball more are better due to higher points scored per game.

The new simplified system weighs their ability to produce points against the Adjusted Defense (AdjD) - that is how many points per 100 trips would their team allow against an average D1 team. This accounts both for defense and for level of competition. We also note if a player is a Point Guard, the most important position on the court.

The resulting "Value" listed in the third column is the Value Add of points the player would improve an average team over if he could not play if a decent replacement took his place. Zach Edey was by far the most valuable player in the country last year at 13.17 meaning typically he would turn a 65-70 loss for a team into a 72-64 win - a 13 point swing. The notes off to the first indicated the team's record, their seed if they made the tournament, and then if they went to the NBA in the 2023 draft or are projected to go in the 2024 or 2025 draft.

1st and 2nd Team Returning All-Americans; and Top 60 Players from Last Season
 
The table below is the list of the 30 most valuable players in college basketball for the 2022-23 season according to our simplified www.valueaddbasketball.com rankings. Obviously most of these top players finished their eligibility or went pro so are no longer playing. However, if we made this our All-American teams of returning players including transfers at their new school the headline would be from Creighton.

1st Team Returning All-Americans - Value Add Basketball calculates that Creighton now has two of the three most valuable players in 2022-23 in returning Ryan Kalkbrenner and Utah State transfer Steven Ashworth. Ironically, Thursday it was Colorado State that handed Creighton its first loss - a team that Ashworth had dominated four of seven times in conference games at Utah State. The other 1st Team All-Americans based on last year's Value Add would be J'Wan Roberts returning for Houston, and then Tylor Perry who transferred from North Texas to Kansas State.

Most Valuable Player for 2nd Year. However, the far and away Most Valuable Player in the Country could challenge Anthony DavisJon Scheyer and Zion Williamson for as the most Valuable college player of the century in the All-Time Value Add Basketball Rankings - Zach Edey who was almost 2 points better than anyone in the country last year at Purdue and has them at No. 1 this season.

2nd Team Returning All-Americans - The 6th most valuable returning player according to Value Add is Marquette Point Guard Tyler Kolek. He would be joined on a second team All-American squad of returning players by Tennessee's Santiago Vescovi, Texas transfer from Oral Roberts Max Abmas, Duke's Ryan Young, Arizona's Azuolas Tubelis and finally Cam Spencer, who transferred from Rutgers to UConn.

In all, 18 of the top 30 players finished their college careers, leaving those 10 returning All-Americans and then two other players - JaKobe Coles of TCU and USC's Boogie Ellis.
 
All-American 1st Team    Team               Value    AdjO  AdjDNotes                                                
Zach EdeyPurdue13.17125.994.51-seed, 29-6, nba 58 in 2024
Adama Sanogo (gone)Connecticut11.37122.690.94-seed, 31-8, Poss 26.4%
Marcus Sasser (gone)Houston11.25123.490.41-seed, 33-4, nba 25 in 2023
Ryan KalkbrennerCreighton10.80133.493.26-seed, 24-13, Poss 19.4%
Steven Ashworth (Creigh)Utah St.10.72127.798.910-seed, 26-9 (PG), Poss 21.6%
All-American 2nd TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Tylor Perry (K-State)North Texas10.37124.394.131-7, Poss 24.4%
Brandon Miller (gone)Alabama10.23117.088.21-seed, 31-6, nba 2 in 2023
Xavier Castaneda (gone)Akron9.94121.9103.422-11 (PG), Poss 29.4%
J'Wan RobertsHouston9.90127.990.41-seed, 33-4, Poss 18.4%
Jordan Hawkins (gone)Connecticut9.88121.290.94-seed, 31-8, nba 14 in 2023
All-American 3rd TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Jaime Jaquez (gone)UCLA9.80113.1882-seed, 31-6, nba 18 in 2023
Jalen Pickett (gone)Penn St.9.66118.7101.110-seed, 23-14 (PG), nba 32 in 2023
Jordan Walker (gone)UAB9.64114.797.929-10 (PG), Poss 30.6%
Tyler KolekMarquette9.6311896.72-seed, 29-7 (PG), Poss 24.1%
Santiago VescoviTennessee9.52114.287.54-seed, 25-11 (PG), Poss 18.8%
All-American 4th TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Max Abmas (Texas)Oral Roberts9.47120.2102.212-seed, 30-5 (PG), Poss 27.6%
Trayce Jackson-Davis (g)Indiana9.45118.597.24-seed, 23-12, nba 57 in 2023
Ryan YoungDuke9.37128.793.95-seed, 27-9, Poss 18.3%
Kendric Davis (grad)Memphis9.24111.196.18-seed, 26-9 (PG), Poss 31.6%
Drew Timme (grad)Gonzaga9.21119.699.33-seed, 31-6, Poss 30.6%
All-American 5th TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Markquis Nowell (gone)Kansas St.8.92111953-seed, 26-10 (PG), Poss 27.6%
Souley Boum (gone)Xavier8.87119.298.63-seed, 27-10 (PG), Poss 21.2%
Oscar Tshiebwe (gone)Kentucky8.83122.698.86-seed, 22-12, Poss 24.5%
Terence Lewis (gone)Louisiana8.74131.2102.913-seed, 26-8, Poss 20.3%
Darius McGhee (gone)Liberty8.68114.597.527-9, Poss 33.4%
All-American 6th TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Azuolas TubelisArizona8.68116.196.32-seed, 28-7, Poss 28.7%
Cam Spencer (UConn)Rutgers8.66119.490.819-15, Poss 19.8%
Sir'Jabari Rice (gone)Texas8.66116.392.12-seed, 29-9, Poss 23.4%
JaKobe ColesTCU8.64118.494.36-seed, 22-13, Poss 23.4%
Boogie EllisUSC8.56113.397.510-seed, 22-11 (PG), Poss 25.7%

Sunday, December 26, 2021

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Top 15 Men’s Basketball Players To Date

For Immediate Release

John Pudner, 404.606.3163, johnp@takebackaction.org

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Top 15 Men’s Basketball Players To Date

“Value Add Basketball is happy to provide the early list of the conference’s top 15 men’s  basketball players based on proven analytics used by NBA teams for draft prep,as well as writers at Sports Illustrated, ESPN, NBC Sports, Fox Sports,” said John Pudner, the inventor of the system.”

“Rick Pitino’s Iona scored an early update of Alabama to boost the MAAC, and his star Nelly Junior Joseph’s double-double in that game helped him contend for Player of the Year in our first conference rankings. He is in the top 2% of all players in blocked shots and offensive rebounds. However,so far Monmouth’s George Papas ranks overall in the top 2% of players in the country and the top player in the conference, and Quinnipiac’s Matt Balanc ranks second with Joseph third.”

You can click on this google doc with information on all 4,000+ players prior to it being posted on www.valueaddbasketball.com. You can also click here for the top 100 players in the country.


Information includes each player’s chance of making the NBA, his Value Add Rating for how many points he impacts a typical game (roughly 10 points is All-American level). The key to the table is: Rank = the player's conference ranking, Value Add = how many points he improves his team over a replacement player, Class = if he is in his 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th and final year of eligibility, Ht = his height, AdjD = how many points he takes away from opponents, and NBA = his percent chance of making the NBA.


Feel free to use any information contained in these statements as wanted, and email (johnp@takebackaction.org), or text/call 404.606.3163 for any questions or additional quotes from John Pudner.

RankMAACTeamValue AddClassHtAdjD
1George PapasMonmouth6.6Sr6'5"-2.21
2Matt BalancQuinnipiac5.4Jr6'4"-0.21
3Nelly Junior JosephIona4.96So6'9"-2.56
4Jordan CintronNiagara4.71Sr6'8"-2.09
5Marcus HammondNiagara4.33Sr6'3"-0.35
6Dylan van EyckIona4.18Sr6'8"-1.06
7Doug EdertSaint Peter's3.99Jr6'2"-0.04
8Josh RobertsManhattan3.86Sr6'9"-0.76
9Jao ItukaMarist3.6Fr6'1"0.23
10Walker MillerMonmouth3.56Sr6'11"-1.5
11Shavar ReynoldsMonmouth3.49Sr6'2"-0.13
12Nick HopkinsSiena3.48Sr6'0-0.67
13Tyson JollyIona3.42Sr6'4"-0.34
14Walter ClaytonIona3.31Fr6'2"-1.09
15Greg KuakumensahNiagara3.27Sr6'6"-1.04
DefKC NdefoSaint Peter's1.74Sr6'7"-3.07
DefKevin MarfoQuinnipiac2.99Sr6'9"-2.12
DefBerrick JeanLouisIona1.69Sr6'4"-1.98
DefNikkei RuttyMonmouth1.91Sr6'8"-1.76
DefElijah BuchananManhattan0.95Sr6'5"-1.71
NBAFousseyni DrameSaint Peter's1.33Jr6'7"-1.09