The Braves 16-14 Statis-Pro record is much better than their actual MLB record and one game ahead of the three other teams fighting for the final three spots to advance to interdivisional play. However we did add the "plus" or "minus" HR numbers based on if a player increased or decreased his OPS by at least 0.100 in actual play this season. While the Giants cards are virtually unchanged, the Braves lose a total of six homers, with only one reserve - Blake Baldwin - playing above their projection enough to add one home run.
However the bigger problem is their pitching match-ups with four of the first five best starting pitchers on 60 day DL, and the fifth Spencer Strider having already pitched in this final trip through the rotation, the Braves will be throwing two PB 4-7 (average, keeps action on their own card 50% of the time) against the Giants All-Star Logan Gray (PB 2-9, best rating) and a better than average PB 2-7 Hayden Birdsong.
The Braves do just need to at least split 3-3 to guarantee advancing to interdivisional play, while the Giants guarantee they advance if they go at least 4-2. The loser will have to wait and hope to finish ahead of either the Padres or Reds, who play each other but then the Reds get to close out against the 0-8 Diamondbacks.
Baseball Reference Links for each player we can use in this series appear at the bottom of this blog.
LA Dodgers - 21-9 clinched advancing and very likely to win Division
3 of 4 will continue season with 4 single games against 4 survivors form the East
Atlanta 16-14 but many injuries and bad pitching match-ups vs Giants
Reds 12-12 battle San Diego but big edge to play last series against winless Diamondback
San Francisco -15-15 and pitching edge against Braves, but 3-3 split might not be enough so need to win 4-2
Padres 15-15 - need to beat the Reds to feel safe
Out
Arizona hasn't actually won a game at 0-8, but the way we score each game as a 3-game series we record them at 5-19 and they play the 1st place Dodgers in addition to the Reds.
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