March Madness: Top Team Value Adds Adjusted for Injuries, Returning Players (Most Important)

Tuesday, March 13, 11 p.m. Injury Update

Rnk	Key Players Lost Late	Team	Value	Hurt Team
82	Jordan Barnett #21	Missouri	6.97	-6
174	De'Andre Hunter #12	Virginia	5.93	-4
755	Bruce Brown #11	Miami FL	2.94	-1.6
1943	Bruce Moore #13	Bucknell	0.7	-0.3
Rnk	Other possible lost players	Team	Value	Hurt Team
8	Dean Wade #32	Kansas St.	9.95	-9.6
22	Wendell Carter #34	Duke	8.71	-7
51	Donta Hall #0	Alabama	7.33	-6
395	Cameron Johnson #13	UNC	4.38	-3.5
674	Trevon Duval #1	Duke	3.21	-3
963	Wes VanBeck #12	Houston	2.34	-1
1284	Jarred Vanderbilt #2	Kentucky	1.64	-0.5

The late-breaking injuries wreak havoc. In the bracket based on Value Add and Health/Injuries Virginia drops to a projected runner-up (5 wins) and in the "slight" upset bracket down to 3 wins as either Arizona or Kentucky could easily beat them now in the Sweet 16. De'Andre Hunter has a 5.93 Value Add and despite some solid backups, being replaced by the 8th best player leaves Virginia 4.0 points worse. Kentucky also has a potential injury in Jarred Vanderbilt, which would cost them half a point, but we just take half off for a player who just misses. That actually nudges them below Arizona, but Kentucky is so close that if we go with slight upsets for a worse seed that is close then Kentucky beats Arizona and Virginia.

Dropping half of the three potential injuries for Duke and UNC could create Final Four runs for Michigan State and possibly even Michigan.

Original Selection Sunday Article Here

The team Value Add Ratings at the end of the season indicate how many points a team is better or worse than average. We have the raw Value Add, and then the injury adjustments to add for returning stars like Bonzie Colson (Notre Dame) and Michael Porter Jr. (Missouri) as well as players that were lost.

This is the most important rating for determining bracket picks - who has the best team on the floor right now based on their season-long value adjusted for current personnel changes. All teams that were still alive Saturday evening, because they were still in their conference tournament or because they are viewed as in the tournament or on the bubble, are listed.

First, here are the brackets you would use if you stuck with this, the most important factor - how good is the team right now. Virginia is the best team right now, a healthy team with a 21.7, so they would logically be the most likely to win the title. However, because it takes picking some upsets to have a chance to win, we do a second bracket that takes the worse seed if they are within 1 point in this important rating - for example, Villanova is within one of Virginia so we give them the title in the "Take upsets in tight match-ups."

The teams with the most damaging injuries were Nevada, Auburn, and Clemson - but ironically Auburn would play Clemson in the second round. The team helped the most was Missouri with the return of Michael Porter Jr. to take them to another level. Notre Dame would have been the other team helped to that degree as the 15th best team in the country adjusted for Colson's return (11.4+3=14.4), but they lost their spot in the tournament when Davidson stole a bid.

(Note for Marquette fans: Marquette was an 11.4 with no major personnel changes to calculate as the 48th best team in the nation - which would not have calculated high enough to win a game as the 11-seed in any of the four regions.)

Seed	South	Overall Value/ Upsets	Take upsets in tight	Value Add	Injury/ Returning	Adjusted Value Add
1	Virginia	5	3	21.7	-4.0	17.7
16	UMBC			-1.9	0.0	-1.9
8	Creighton	1	1	11.8	-1.0	10.8
9	Kansas St.			10.1	0.0	10.1
5	Kentucky	1	5	14.0	(-0.2)	13.8
12	Davidson			9.2	0.0	9.2
4	Arizona	2	1	13.9	0.0	13.9
13	Buffalo			6.9	0.0	6.9
6	Miami FL	1		10.7	0.4	11.1
11	Loyola Chicago		1	10.3	0.0	10.3
3	Tennessee	2	2	14.7	0.0	14.7
14	Wright St.			1.9	-1.0	0.9
7	Nevada			13.0	-3.0	10.0
10	Texas	1	1	10.6	-1.0	9.6
2	Cincinnati	3	3	18.8	0.0	18.8
15	Georgia St.			4.4	0.0	4.4
Seed	West	Overall Value/ Upsets	Take upsets in tight	Value Add	Injury/ Returning	Adjusted Value Add
1	Xavier	2	2	14.8	0.0	14.8
16	North Carolina Central			-9.5	0.0	-9.5
16	Texas Southern			-6.0	0.0	-6.0
8	Missouri			10.5	-2.0	8.5
9	Florida St.	1	1	10.7	0.0	10.7
5	Ohio St.	1	1	14.3	0.0	14.3
12	San Diego St.			8.9	0.0	8.9
4	Gonzaga	4	3	16.8	0.0	16.8
13	UNC Greensboro			6.1	0.0	6.1
6	Houston	1	1	13.1	0.0	13.1
11	South Dakota St.			7.2	0.0	7.2
3	Michigan	3	4	15.8	0.0	15.8
14	Montana			6.9	0.0	6.9
7	Texas A&M	1	1	11.5	-2.0	9.5
10	Providence			8.0	0.0	8.0
2	North Carolina	2	2	16.9	-1.7	15.2
15	Lipscomb			0.3	0.0	0.3
Seed	East	Overall Value/ Upsets	Take upsets in tight	Value Add	Injury/ Returning	Adjusted Value Add
1	Villanova	5	6	21.1	0.0	21.1
16	LIU Brooklyn			-5.3	0.0	-5.3
16	Radford			0.0	0.0	0.0
8	Virginia Tech	1	1	11.3	0.0	11.3
9	Alabama			10.1	-4.8?	5.3
5	West Virginia	2	2	15.1	0.0	15.1
12	Murray St.			8.6	0.0	8.6
4	Wichita St.	1	1	13.8	0.0	13.8
13	Marshall			3.4	0.0	3.4
6	Florida	1	1	13.1	0.0	13.1
11	St. Bonaventure			8.0	0.0	8.0
11	UCLA			10.1	0.0	10.1
3	Texas Tech	2	2	15.1	0.0	15.1
14	Stephen F. Austin			3.6	0.0	3.6
7	Arkansas			10.8	0.0	10.8
10	Butler	1	1	12.5	0.0	12.5
2	Purdue	3	3	18.1	0.0	18.1
15	Cal St. Fullerton			0.0	0.0	0.0
Seed	East	Overall Value/ Upsets	Take upsets in tight	Value Add	Injury/ Returning	Adjusted Value Add
1	Kansas	3	3	15.4	0.0	15.4
16	Penn			2.1	0.0	2.1
8	Seton Hall	1	1	11.8	0.0	11.8
9	North Carolina St.			10.2	0.0	10.2
5	Clemson	1	2	13.8	-3.0	10.8
12	New Mexico St.			9.1	0.0	9.1
4	Auburn	2	1	14.1	-3.0	11.1
13	College of Charleston			3.2	0.0	3.2
6	TCU			12.9	-3.0	9.9
11	Arizona St.			10.0	0.0	10.0
11	Syracuse	1	1	9.2	0.0	9.2
3	Michigan St.	4	4	17.9	0.0	17.9
14	Bucknell			4.6	-0.7	3.8
7	Rhode Island			9.9	0.0	9.9
10	Oklahoma	1	1	9.9	0.0	9.9
2	Duke	2	2	20.1	-5.0	15.1
15	Iona			2.0	0.0	2.0

And here are the overall rankings of the final 91 teams competing for bids and notes on how much a player's injury or returning player helped or hurt their strength as of Selection Sunday.

Rank	Team	Value Add	Injury/ Returning	Adjusted Value Add	Notes on significant personnel changes
1	Virginia	21.7	0.0	21.7	Healthy
2	Villanova	21.1	0.0	21.1	Healthy
3	Duke	20.1	0.0	20.1	Healthy
4	Cincinnati	18.8	0.0	18.8	Healthy
5	Purdue	18.1	0.0	18.1	Healthy
6	Michigan St.	17.9	0.0	17.9	Healthy
7	North Carolina	16.9	0.0	16.9	Healthy
8	Gonzaga	16.8	0.0	16.8	Healthy
9	Michigan	15.8	0.0	15.8	Healthy
10	West Virginia	15.1	0.0	15.1	Healthy
11	Texas Tech	15.1	0.0	15.1	Keenan Evans fine
12	Xavier	14.8	0.0	14.8	Healthy
13	Tennessee	14.7	0.0	14.7	Healthy
14	Missouri	10.5	4.0	14.5	No. 1 NBA draftee Michael Porter Jr. is back.
15	Notre Dame	11.4	3.0	14.4	D.J. Harvey (knee) is out for the season but the return of National POY candidate Bonzie Colson back.
16	Ohio St.	14.3	0.0	14.3	Healthy
17	Arizona	13.9	0.0	13.9	Healthy
18	Wichita St.	13.8	0.0	13.8	Healthy
19	Kansas	15.4	0.0	15.4	If Udoka Azubuike not back, then -2.0.
20	Florida	13.1	0.0	13.1	Healthy
21	Houston	13.1	0.0	13.1	Healthy
22	Kentucky	14.0	0.0	14.0	Healthy
23	Miami FL	10.7	2.0	12.7	If Bruce Brown not back then -2.
24	Butler	12.5	0.0	12.5	Healthy
25	Seton Hall	11.8	0.0	11.8	Healthy
26	Saint Mary's	11.6	0.0	11.6	Healthy
27	Virginia Tech	11.3	0.0	11.3	Healthy
28	Louisville	11.2	0.0	11.2	Healthy
29	Baylor	11.0	0.0	11.0	Healthy
30	Creighton	11.8	-1.0	10.8	Martin Krampelj ACL is out for season.
31	Arkansas	10.8	0.0	10.8	Healthy
32	Florida St.	10.7	0.0	10.7	Healthy
33	Loyola Chicago	10.3	0.0	10.3	Healthy
34	North Carolina St.	10.2	0.0	10.2	Healthy
35	Auburn	14.1	-3.0	11.1	NBA prospects Purijoy and Wiley,Auburn 2-4 w/oAnfernee McLemore.
36	Kansas St.	10.1	0.0	10.1	Healthy
37	UCLA	10.1	0.0	10.1	Ikenna Okwarabizie Concussion indefinite.
38	Alabama	10.1	0.0	10.1	Healthy
39	Nevada	13.0	-3.0	10.0	L. Drew was 4.50 Value add.
40	Arizona St.	10.0	0.0	10.0	Healthy
41	Rhode Island	9.9	0.0	9.9	Healthy
42	TCU	12.9	-3.0	9.9	Jaylen Fisher (5 value add), RJ Nembhard Ankle.
43	Oklahoma	9.9	0.0	9.9	Healthy
44	Clemson	13.8	-3.0	10.8	01/22/18 F Donte Grantham ACL is out for season, may be biggest loss of any team.
45	USC	10.2	-0.5	9.7	Good backups for Bennie Boatwright.
46	Texas	10.6	-1.0	9.6	Andrew Jones (5 value add) and Eric Davis 2.5.
47	Texas A&M	11.5	-2.0	9.5	Wilson 2.0 VA, Caldwell 1.0.
48	Marquette	9.4	0.0	9.4	Healthy
49	Middle Tennessee	9.4	0.0	9.4	Healthy
50	Syracuse	9.2	0.0	9.2	Thorpe, Washington out.
51	Davidson	9.2	0.0	9.2	Healthy
52	Oklahoma St.	9.2	0.0	9.2	Healthy
53	Nebraska	9.1	0.0	9.1	Healthy
54	New Mexico St.	9.1	0.0	9.1	Healthy
55	Maryland	10.0	-1.0	9.0	Bender, Jackson out.
56	Boise St.	9.0	0.0	9.0	Healthy
57	San Diego St.	8.9	0.0	8.9	Healthy
58	Western Kentucky	8.7	0.0	8.7	Healthy
59	Murray St.	8.6	0.0	8.6	Healthy
60	Penn St.	11.6	-3.0	8.6	Watkins, Knee, worth 7.0.
61	St. Bonaventure	8.0	0.0	8.0	Healthy
62	Providence	8.0	0.0	8.0	Healthy
63	South Dakota St.	7.2	0.0	7.2	Healthy
64	Buffalo	6.9	0.0	6.9	Healthy
65	Montana	6.9	0.0	6.9	Healthy
66	UNC Greensboro	6.1	0.0	6.1	Healthy
67	Georgia St.	4.4	0.0	4.4	Healthy
68	Bucknell	4.6	-0.4	4.2	Newman Suspension.
69	New Mexico	4.2	0.0	4.2	Healthy
70	Stephen F. Austin	3.6	0.0	3.6	Healthy
71	Toledo	3.6	0.0	3.6	Healthy
72	Marshall	3.4	0.0	3.4	Healthy
73	Grand Canyon	3.4	0.0	3.4	Healthy
74	College of Charleston	3.2	0.0	3.2	Healthy
75	Eastern Washington	2.7	0.0	2.7	Healthy
76	UT Arlington	2.4	0.0	2.4	Healthy
77	UC Irvine	2.2	0.0	2.2	Healthy
78	Penn	2.1	0.0	2.1	Healthy
79	Iona	2.0	0.0	2.0	Healthy
80	Wright St.	1.9	-1.0	0.9	Justin Mitchell 2.4 out indefinitely.
81	Harvard	0.9	0.0	0.9	Healthy
82	Lipscomb	0.3	0.0	0.3	Healthy
83	Cal St. Fullerton	0.0	0.0	0.0	Healthy
84	Radford	0.0	0.0	0.0	Healthy
85	Georgia Southern	1.2	-2.0	-0.8	03/10/18 F Montae Glenn Knee is out indefinitely.
86	Southeastern Louisiana	-1.6	0.0	-1.6	Healthy
87	UMBC	-1.9	0.0	-1.9	Healthy
88	LIU Brooklyn	-5.3	0.0	-5.3	Healthy
89	Texas Southern	-6.0	0.0	-6.0	Healthy
90	North Carolina Central	-9.5	0.0	-9.5	Healthy
91	Arkansas Pine Bluff	-11.0	0.0	-11.0	Healthy