Sunday, March 11, 2018

March Madness: All-Americans and 3 Star Domination

Al McGuire said a team needed three-and-a-half stars to win a championship. It is hard for us to measure the hustler who can be the third star, but sometimes the team with the most dominant All-American level player on the court or a team with three great options as stars can beat more balanced teams with a longer bench during March Madness.

The Value Add All-American list was the most accurate last year, and if that happened this year it would be Villanova over Arizona in the title game - who feature the two most dominant All-Americans in the tournament and the most dominant trio.

Villanova (26.98 Value Add of top 3 stars) is led by the 1st team All-American swingman Mikal Bridges (10.75) and just missed a second All-American in the close race between four point guards including Jalen Brunson (11th best in the country, 9.59 Value Add). Omari Spillman (6.64, 109th of more than 4,000 players) gives Nova a third player in the top three percent of all players.

Arizona (24.63) is led by the only player in the tournament more dominant than Bridges this year - center Deandre Ayton (11.64 Value Add) who scored over 30 points in consecutive Pac-12 games to surge into 1st at Arizona was the only team with two All-Americans Allonzo Trier, though he fell off slightly during the conference tournament. They then have the unbelievable luxury of a second dominant seven-footer who can be on the court at the same time as Ayton in Dusan Ristic.

The other Final Four teams under this scenario would be Ohio State (All-American Keita Bates-Diop, 114th ranked Kaleb Wesson and 218th ranked Jae'Sean Tate) and Duke only team with three players in the top 1% in Marvin Bagley, Wendall Carter and Grayson Allen).

(Marquette note, Marquette's trio has a total Value Add of 20.22, which would have been strong enough to win two games in the South before a loss to Cincinnati, two wins in the West until losing to Ohio State or one win in the east before losing to Texas Tech. The only bracket in which Marquette's trio would not calculate as an 11-seed is the Midwest, where they would have been projected to lose to TCU.)

SeedSouthTop 3 Value AddTop 3 winsMismatch
9Kansas St.20.571
SouthTop 3 Value AddTop 3 winsMismatch
6Miami FL15.96
11Loyola Chicago16.6311
14Wright St.11.56
15Georgia St.13.03
SeedWestTop 3 Value AddTop 3 winsMismatch
16North Carolina Central6.43
16Texas Southern8.29
9Florida St.15.241
5Ohio St.22.2241
12San Diego St.15.42
13UNC Greensboro6
SeedWestTop 3 Value AddTop 3 winsMismatch
11South Dakota St.16.19
7Texas A&M18.921
2North Carolina21.8434
SeedEastTop 3 Value AddTop 3 winsMismatch
16LIU Brooklyn
8Virginia Tech16.351
5West Virginia22.212
12Murray St.20.332
4Wichita St.18.3111
SeedEastTop 3 Value AddTop 3 winsMismatch
11St. Bonaventure15.71
3Texas Tech22.412
14Stephen F. Austin11.772
15Cal St. Fullerton14.47
SeedMidwestTop 3 Value AddTop 3 winsMismatch
8Seton Hall18.541
9North Carolina St.16.252
12New Mexico St.15.72
13College of Charleston14.51
SeedMidwestTop 3 Value AddTop 3 winsMismatch
11Arizona St.15.811
3Michigan St.21.6322
7Rhode Island15.741

The college basketball world spent half a season wondering, "Is there any way to stop Trae Young," and now the same people are asking, "Is there any way to stop Deandre Ayton?" While Young led the ratings most of the year with his Steph Curry-like range and release for Oklahoma, it has been Arizona's Deandre Ayton who shows an amazing skill set at 7-foot-1 en route to the Pac-12 title and taking over the No. 1 spot with an 11.64 Value Add as of Selection Sunday.

You can go to to see the values of all 4,000 players, and most importly who good the top three stars are on each team - which is the basis of a teams "All-American" projection for wins in March Madness. Here are the top 50 plus some stars who were also named All-American but in some cases had their Value Add held down because of injuries.

We focused another post on the chance that a team can score a March Madness upset by dominating a favored team via Offensive Rebounds (OR%), Steals (Stl%) or 3-point shorts (3PM-3PA). For these top stars we added their figure from for these three states, while the number between their name and team is their Value Add - or how many points a game they are worth beyond a replacement player.

1Deandre Ayton #1311.64Arizona13.41.012-337' 1FrAll-Amer 2nd C^ 34 Gms
2Jock Landale #3411.18Saint Mary's12.00.83-96' 11SrAll-Amer 1st C^ 33 Gms
3Mikal Bridges #2510.75Villanova5.52.888-2036' 7JrAll-Amer 1st SF-3^ 34 Gms
4Gary Clark #1110.59Cincinnati12.33.224-556' 8SrAll-Amer 1st Team PF-4 ^ 33 Gms
5Yante Maten #110.30Georgia11.80.829-856' 8SrAll-Amer 2nd Team PF-4^ 33 Gms
6Keita Bates-Diop #3310.09Ohio St.5.61.858-1626' 7JrAll-Amer 3rd Team PF-4^ 32 Gms
7Jevon Carter #210.04West Virginia2.54.671-1836' 2SrAll-Amer 2nd PG^ 34 Gms
8Dean Wade #329.95Kansas St.5.02.840-916' 10JrAll-Amer 3rd C^ 32 Gms
9John Konchar #559.81Fort Wayne6.33.960-1556' 5JrAll-Amer 3rd SF-PF (tied+1.3)^ 28 Gms
10Trae Young #119.71Oklahoma1.32.5115-3186' 2FrAll-Amer 1st PG^ 31 Gms
11Jalen Brunson #19.59Villanova1.11.574-1796' 2JrAll-Amer HM^ 34 Gms
12Devonte' Graham #49.53Kansas1.62.598-2386' 2SrAll-Amer 3rd PG^ 34 Gms
13Juwan Morgan #139.44Indiana10.72.416-536' 7JrAll-Amer HM^ 31 Gms
14Devon Hall #09.43Virginia1.51.857-1266' 5SrAll-Amer HM^ 33 Gms
15Marvin Bagley #359.40Duke13.71.520-546' 11FrAll-Amer HM^ 29 Gms
16Trevon Bluiett #59.14Xavier3.01.2101-2396' 6SrAll-Amer 2nd SF-3 (+1.2)^ 33 Gms
17James Thompson #29.06Eastern Michigan13.91.30-06' 10JrAll-Amer HM^ 29 Gms
18Luke Maye #329.02North Carolina10.21.748-1096' 8JrAll-Amer HM^ 35 Gms
19Jonathan Stark #28.88Murray St.1.32.0103-2546' 0SrAll-Amer 1st Team SG-2 (+1.))^ 29 Gms
20Jeff Roberson #118.79Vanderbilt6.61.562-1536' 6Sr32 Gms
21Keenan Evans #128.72Texas Tech1.42.443-1376' 3SrAll-Amer HM (+.1)^ 32 Gms
22Wendell Carter #348.71Duke13.01.619-416' 10Fr33 Gms
23Peyton Aldridge #238.64Davidson5.00.776-1926' 8Sr31 Gms
24Mohamed Bamba #48.51Texas12.11.514-506' 11FrAll-Amer HM^ 29 Gms
25Dylan Windler #38.29Belmont6.31.769-1626' 7JrAll-Amer 3rd SF-PF (tied +.4)^ 33 Gms
26Carsen Edwards #38.10Purdue1.72.389-2166' 1SoAll-Amer HM^ 34 Gms
27Ethan Happ #228.09Wisconsin9.73.01-116' 10JrAll-Amer HM^ 33 Gms
28Michael Oguine #08.00Montana8.02.642-1196' 2JrAll-Amer HM^ 31 Gms
29Reid Travis #227.98Stanford10.21.317-576' 8Jr33 Gms
30Mike Daum #247.95South Dakota St.7.20.985-1986' 9Jr30 Gms
31Anthony Cowan #17.93Maryland0.72.352-1406' 0So31 Gms
32Rob Gray #327.93Houston2.22.251-1476' 1Sr31 Gms
33Marcquise Reed #27.88Clemson2.62.965-1796' 3Jr32 Gms
34Cassius Winston #57.75Michigan St.0.91.371-1356' 0So33 Gms
35Kenrich Williams #347.73TCU9.62.945-1106' 7Sr31 Gms
36Tyler Davis #347.73Texas A&M13.20.77-256' 10Jr32 Gms
37Elijah Bryant #37.73BYU1.72.282-1996' 5Jr34 Gms
38Allonzo Trier #357.70Arizona1.41.170-1796' 5JrAll-Amer 2nd Team SG-2^ 32 Gms
39Grayson Allen #37.68Duke1.82.790-2396' 5Sr33 Gms
40Moritz Wagner #137.68Michigan6.42.252-1326' 11Jr32 Gms
41Justin Bibbins #17.66Utah1.32.282-1825' 8Sr30 Gms
42Dakota Mathias #317.65Purdue0.62.490-1946' 4Sr34 Gms
43Landry Shamet #117.65Wichita St.1.61.384-1836' 4So31 Gms
44Daryl Macon #47.57Arkansas1.41.884-1966' 3Sr34 Gms
45Zhaire Smith #27.56Texas Tech9.92.413-316' 5Fr33 Gms
46Tookie Brown #47.48Georgia Southern2.13.049-1015' 11Jr30 Gms
47Jacob Evans #17.46Cincinnati5.02.658-1526' 6JrAll-Amer HM^ 33 Gms
48TJ Shorts #07.44UC Davis1.63.610-285' 9Jr30 Gms
49Noah Dickerson #157.41Washington12.51.42-56' 8Jr32 Gms
50Sam Hauser #107.38Marquette3.81.791-

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