March Madness: All-Americans and 3 Star Domination

Al McGuire said a team needed three-and-a-half stars to win a championship. It is hard for us to measure the hustler who can be the third star, but sometimes the team with the most dominant All-American level player on the court or a team with three great options as stars can beat more balanced teams with a longer bench during March Madness.

The Value Add All-American list was the most accurate last year, and if that happened this year it would be Villanova over Arizona in the title game - who feature the two most dominant All-Americans in the tournament and the most dominant trio.

Villanova (26.98 Value Add of top 3 stars) is led by the 1st team All-American swingman Mikal Bridges (10.75) and just missed a second All-American in the close race between four point guards including Jalen Brunson (11th best in the country, 9.59 Value Add). Omari Spillman (6.64, 109th of more than 4,000 players) gives Nova a third player in the top three percent of all players.

Arizona (24.63) is led by the only player in the tournament more dominant than Bridges this year - center Deandre Ayton (11.64 Value Add) who scored over 30 points in consecutive Pac-12 games to surge into 1st at www.valueaddbasketball.com. Arizona was the only team with two All-Americans Allonzo Trier, though he fell off slightly during the conference tournament. They then have the unbelievable luxury of a second dominant seven-footer who can be on the court at the same time as Ayton in Dusan Ristic.

The other Final Four teams under this scenario would be Ohio State (All-American Keita Bates-Diop, 114th ranked Kaleb Wesson and 218th ranked Jae'Sean Tate) and Duke only team with three players in the top 1% in Marvin Bagley, Wendall Carter and Grayson Allen).

(Marquette note, Marquette's trio has a total Value Add of 20.22, which would have been strong enough to win two games in the South before a loss to Cincinnati, two wins in the West until losing to Ohio State or one win in the east before losing to Texas Tech. The only bracket in which Marquette's trio would not calculate as an 11-seed is the Midwest, where they would have been projected to lose to TCU.)

Seed	South	Top 3 Value Add	Top 3 wins	Mismatch
1	Virginia	23.76	2	6
16	UMBC	6.27
8	Creighton	17.46		1
9	Kansas St.	20.57	1
5	Kentucky	17.99		1
12	Davidson	21.52	1
4	Arizona	24.63	5	2
13	Buffalo	16.85
	South	Top 3 Value Add	Top 3 wins	Mismatch
6	Miami FL	15.96
11	Loyola Chicago	16.63	1	1
3	Tennessee	18.33	2	2
14	Wright St.	11.56
7	Nevada	20.03	1
10	Texas	16.95		1
2	Cincinnati	22.86	3	3
15	Georgia St.	13.03
Seed	West	Top 3 Value Add	Top 3 wins	Mismatch
1	Xavier	19.39	1	2
16	North Carolina Central	6.43
16	Texas Southern	8.29
8	Missouri	19.47	2
9	Florida St.	15.24		1
5	Ohio St.	22.22	4	1
12	San Diego St.	15.42
4	Gonzaga	18.38	1	3
13	UNC Greensboro	6
Seed	West	Top 3 Value Add	Top 3 wins	Mismatch
6	Houston	19.71	1	2
11	South Dakota St.	16.19
3	Michigan	20.11	2	1
14	Montana	19.34
7	Texas A&M	18.92	1
10	Providence	12.86		1
2	North Carolina	21.84	3	4
15	Lipscomb	14.18
Seed	East	Top 3 Value Add	Top 3 wins	Mismatch
1	Villanova	26.98	6	5
16	LIU Brooklyn
16	Radford	11.91
8	Virginia Tech	16.35		1
9	Alabama	18.23	1
5	West Virginia	22.21	2
12	Murray St.	20.33		2
4	Wichita St.	18.31	1	1
13	Marshall	16.76
Seed	East	Top 3 Value Add	Top 3 wins	Mismatch
6	Florida	18.72	1
11	St. Bonaventure	15.7		1
11	UCLA	18.33		1
3	Texas Tech	22.41	2
14	Stephen F. Austin	11.77		2
7	Arkansas	20.02	1	1
10	Butler	17.67
2	Purdue	22.78	3	3
15	Cal St. Fullerton	14.47
Seed	Midwest	Top 3 Value Add	Top 3 wins	Mismatch
1	Kansas	21.99	3	1
16	Penn	10.53
8	Seton Hall	18.54	1
9	North Carolina St.	16.25		2
5	Clemson	19.39	2	1
12	New Mexico St.	15.72
4	Auburn	16.5	1	3
13	College of Charleston	14.51
Seed	Midwest	Top 3 Value Add	Top 3 wins	Mismatch
6	TCU	22.41	1
11	Arizona St.	15.81		1
11	Syracuse	18.41	1	1
3	Michigan St.	21.63	2	2
14	Bucknell	17.04
7	Rhode Island	15.74		1
10	Oklahoma	18.48	1
2	Duke	25.79	4	4
15	Iona	8.64

The college basketball world spent half a season wondering, "Is there any way to stop Trae Young," and now the same people are asking, "Is there any way to stop Deandre Ayton?" While Young led the www.valueaddbasketball.com ratings most of the year with his Steph Curry-like range and release for Oklahoma, it has been Arizona's Deandre Ayton who shows an amazing skill set at 7-foot-1 en route to the Pac-12 title and taking over the No. 1 spot with an 11.64 Value Add as of Selection Sunday.

You can go to www.valueaddbasketball.com to see the values of all 4,000 players, and most importly who good the top three stars are on each team - which is the basis of a teams "All-American" projection for wins in March Madness. Here are the top 50 plus some stars who were also named All-American but in some cases had their Value Add held down because of injuries.

We focused another post on the chance that a team can score a March Madness upset by dominating a favored team via Offensive Rebounds (OR%), Steals (Stl%) or 3-point shorts (3PM-3PA). For these top stars we added their figure from www.kenpom.com for these three states, while the number between their name and team is their Value Add - or how many points a game they are worth beyond a replacement player.

Rnk	Player	Value	Team	OR%	Stl%	3PM-3PA	Ht	Class	Notes
1	Deandre Ayton #13	11.64	Arizona	13.4	1.0	12-33	7' 1	Fr	All-Amer 2nd C^ 34 Gms
2	Jock Landale #34	11.18	Saint Mary's	12.0	0.8	3-9	6' 11	Sr	All-Amer 1st C^ 33 Gms
3	Mikal Bridges #25	10.75	Villanova	5.5	2.8	88-203	6' 7	Jr	All-Amer 1st SF-3^ 34 Gms
4	Gary Clark #11	10.59	Cincinnati	12.3	3.2	24-55	6' 8	Sr	All-Amer 1st Team PF-4 ^ 33 Gms
5	Yante Maten #1	10.30	Georgia	11.8	0.8	29-85	6' 8	Sr	All-Amer 2nd Team PF-4^ 33 Gms
6	Keita Bates-Diop #33	10.09	Ohio St.	5.6	1.8	58-162	6' 7	Jr	All-Amer 3rd Team PF-4^ 32 Gms
7	Jevon Carter #2	10.04	West Virginia	2.5	4.6	71-183	6' 2	Sr	All-Amer 2nd PG^ 34 Gms
8	Dean Wade #32	9.95	Kansas St.	5.0	2.8	40-91	6' 10	Jr	All-Amer 3rd C^ 32 Gms
9	John Konchar #55	9.81	Fort Wayne	6.3	3.9	60-155	6' 5	Jr	All-Amer 3rd SF-PF (tied+1.3)^ 28 Gms
10	Trae Young #11	9.71	Oklahoma	1.3	2.5	115-318	6' 2	Fr	All-Amer 1st PG^ 31 Gms
11	Jalen Brunson #1	9.59	Villanova	1.1	1.5	74-179	6' 2	Jr	All-Amer HM^ 34 Gms
12	Devonte' Graham #4	9.53	Kansas	1.6	2.5	98-238	6' 2	Sr	All-Amer 3rd PG^ 34 Gms
13	Juwan Morgan #13	9.44	Indiana	10.7	2.4	16-53	6' 7	Jr	All-Amer HM^ 31 Gms
14	Devon Hall #0	9.43	Virginia	1.5	1.8	57-126	6' 5	Sr	All-Amer HM^ 33 Gms
15	Marvin Bagley #35	9.40	Duke	13.7	1.5	20-54	6' 11	Fr	All-Amer HM^ 29 Gms
16	Trevon Bluiett #5	9.14	Xavier	3.0	1.2	101-239	6' 6	Sr	All-Amer 2nd SF-3 (+1.2)^ 33 Gms
17	James Thompson #2	9.06	Eastern Michigan	13.9	1.3	0-0	6' 10	Jr	All-Amer HM^ 29 Gms
18	Luke Maye #32	9.02	North Carolina	10.2	1.7	48-109	6' 8	Jr	All-Amer HM^ 35 Gms
19	Jonathan Stark #2	8.88	Murray St.	1.3	2.0	103-254	6' 0	Sr	All-Amer 1st Team SG-2 (+1.))^ 29 Gms
20	Jeff Roberson #11	8.79	Vanderbilt	6.6	1.5	62-153	6' 6	Sr	32 Gms
21	Keenan Evans #12	8.72	Texas Tech	1.4	2.4	43-137	6' 3	Sr	All-Amer HM (+.1)^ 32 Gms
22	Wendell Carter #34	8.71	Duke	13.0	1.6	19-41	6' 10	Fr	33 Gms
23	Peyton Aldridge #23	8.64	Davidson	5.0	0.7	76-192	6' 8	Sr	31 Gms
24	Mohamed Bamba #4	8.51	Texas	12.1	1.5	14-50	6' 11	Fr	All-Amer HM^ 29 Gms
25	Dylan Windler #3	8.29	Belmont	6.3	1.7	69-162	6' 7	Jr	All-Amer 3rd SF-PF (tied +.4)^ 33 Gms
26	Carsen Edwards #3	8.10	Purdue	1.7	2.3	89-216	6' 1	So	All-Amer HM^ 34 Gms
27	Ethan Happ #22	8.09	Wisconsin	9.7	3.0	1-11	6' 10	Jr	All-Amer HM^ 33 Gms
28	Michael Oguine #0	8.00	Montana	8.0	2.6	42-119	6' 2	Jr	All-Amer HM^ 31 Gms
29	Reid Travis #22	7.98	Stanford	10.2	1.3	17-57	6' 8	Jr	33 Gms
30	Mike Daum #24	7.95	South Dakota St.	7.2	0.9	85-198	6' 9	Jr	30 Gms
31	Anthony Cowan #1	7.93	Maryland	0.7	2.3	52-140	6' 0	So	31 Gms
32	Rob Gray #32	7.93	Houston	2.2	2.2	51-147	6' 1	Sr	31 Gms
33	Marcquise Reed #2	7.88	Clemson	2.6	2.9	65-179	6' 3	Jr	32 Gms
34	Cassius Winston #5	7.75	Michigan St.	0.9	1.3	71-135	6' 0	So	33 Gms
35	Kenrich Williams #34	7.73	TCU	9.6	2.9	45-110	6' 7	Sr	31 Gms
36	Tyler Davis #34	7.73	Texas A&M	13.2	0.7	7-25	6' 10	Jr	32 Gms
37	Elijah Bryant #3	7.73	BYU	1.7	2.2	82-199	6' 5	Jr	34 Gms
38	Allonzo Trier #35	7.70	Arizona	1.4	1.1	70-179	6' 5	Jr	All-Amer 2nd Team SG-2^ 32 Gms
39	Grayson Allen #3	7.68	Duke	1.8	2.7	90-239	6' 5	Sr	33 Gms
40	Moritz Wagner #13	7.68	Michigan	6.4	2.2	52-132	6' 11	Jr	32 Gms
41	Justin Bibbins #1	7.66	Utah	1.3	2.2	82-182	5' 8	Sr	30 Gms
42	Dakota Mathias #31	7.65	Purdue	0.6	2.4	90-194	6' 4	Sr	34 Gms
43	Landry Shamet #11	7.65	Wichita St.	1.6	1.3	84-183	6' 4	So	31 Gms
44	Daryl Macon #4	7.57	Arkansas	1.4	1.8	84-196	6' 3	Sr	34 Gms
45	Zhaire Smith #2	7.56	Texas Tech	9.9	2.4	13-31	6' 5	Fr	33 Gms
46	Tookie Brown #4	7.48	Georgia Southern	2.1	3.0	49-101	5' 11	Jr	30 Gms
47	Jacob Evans #1	7.46	Cincinnati	5.0	2.6	58-152	6' 6	Jr	All-Amer HM^ 33 Gms
48	TJ Shorts #0	7.44	UC Davis	1.6	3.6	10-28	5' 9	Jr	30 Gms
49	Noah Dickerson #15	7.41	Washington	12.5	1.4	2-5	6' 8	Jr	32 Gms
50	Sam Hauser #10	7.38	Marquette	3.8	1.7	91-