Sunday, March 11, 2018

March Madness: Coaching, Senior Guards, and Hot Streaks

The final factors to consider when filling out your bracket are the experience of the team's coach in making NCAA runs, if they have upperclassmen point guard who can steady the team under the pressure of the tournament, and if the team closed the season playing well or not.

The first three numbers left of the team gives the prediction of how many games they would win with an emphasis on any of these three areas.

The first number (Hot) is based on how many they would win based on how "hot" they are which corresponds to the movement in the team's KenPom rating since Feb. 1. Virginia projects as the national champion (6 lines) based on their overall top rating plus being hot as they moved from 2nd to 1st in KenPom.

The second column (PG/SG)  is wins adjusted for the experience of the Point Guard (primarily) and the Shooting Guard (secondary). Virginia projects as the National Champion under that scenario as well, with their Point Guard Hall (senior) and shooting guard Guy (sophomore) getting a "7 of 10" for the experience.

The third column (Coach) projects Virginia being nudged out by Villanova. Virginia has small edge over Villanova overall, but Jay Wright has gone further than Tony Bennett so far with the national title two years ago, so Villanova gets a slight advantage on this category.

(Marquette Note: Andrew Rowsey's status as a senior point guard (6 points) and Markus Howard's as a sophomore shooting guard (1 point) gives Marquette a 7 of 10 rating on the experienced backcourt. That would project to be a big enough gap to shift one regoinal match against a 6-seed (Miami with freshman point guard Lykes and sophomore shooting guard Vasiljevic) for a win. Since February 1 Marquette dropped from 50th to 53rd to rate as slighly cold, and Coach Wojo's inexperience would not have provided a win based on either of those two categories).

SeedSouthHotPG/SGCoachKenPom since Feb
Coach Tour Exp
1Virginia6652nd to 1st8Hall & Guy7Tony Bennett6
16UMBC192nd to 184th6Maura & Lyles9Ryan Odom1
8Creighton1123rd to 27th4Foster & Mintz8Greg McDermott7
9Kansas St.142nd to 44th5Stokes & Diarra5Bruce Weber7
5Kentucky21227th to 18th9Gilgeous-Alexander & Green0John Calipari9
12Davidson70th to 43rd9Gudmundsson & Grady2Bob McKillop6
4Arizona12120th to 21st5Jackson-Cartwright & Trier9Sean Miller8
13Buffalo81st to 77th6Clark & Caruthers8Nate Oats3
SouthHotPG/SGCoachKenPom since FebPG/SG ExpCoach Tour Exp
6Miami FL132nd to 36th4Lykes & Vasiljevic1Jim Larranaga7
11Loyola Chicago2255th to 41st8Custer & Richardson7Porter Moser2
3Tennessee1128th to 11th5Bone & Bowden3Rick Barnes8
14Wright St.121st to 135th3Gentry & Hughes4Scott Nagy6
7Nevada117th to 24th3Martin & Cooke7Eric Musselman2
10Texas1147th to 39th7Coleman & Jacob1Shaka Smart9
2Cincinnati3335th to 4th7Broome & Cumberland5Mick Cronin7
15Georgia St.116th to 96th7Simonds & Williams6Ron Hunter6
SeedWestHotPG/SGCoachKenPom since FebPG/SG ExpCoach Tour Exp
1Xavier21213th to 14th5Goodin & Mancura5Chris Mack8
16North Carolina Central281st to 309th3Perkins & Gardner0LeVelle Moton3
16Texas Southern232nd to 249th3Jefferson & McClelland2Mike Davis8
8Missouri12143rd to 38th7Geist & Robertson7Cuonzo Martin7
9Florida St.25th to 35th3Forrest & Savoy4Leonard Hamilton7
5Ohio St.11113th to 15th4Jackson & Williams7Chris Holtmann7
12San Diego St.63rd to 50th7Watson & Kell7Brian Dutcher0
4Gonzaga3337th to 8th5Perkins & Melson7Mark Few8
13UNC Greensboro115th to 82nd9Troy & Miller4Wes Miller0
SeedWestHotPG/SGCoachKenPom since FebPG/SG ExpCoach Tour Exp
6Houston11138th to 17th9Gray & Robinson8Kelvin Sampson8
11South Dakota St.84th to 75th7Key & Jenkins4T.J. Otzelberger3
3Michigan42223rd to 10th10Simpson & Abdur-Rahkman6John Beilein9
14Montana71st to 71st5Rorie & Oguine6Travis DeCuire0
7Texas A&M133rd to 30th5Starks & Gilder2Billy Kennedy6
10Providence1161st to 63rd6Cartwright & Lindsey10Ed Cooley8
2North Carolina24414th to 7th8Berry & Williams9Roy Williams10
15Lipscomb179th to 165th6Cooper & Buckland3Casey Alexander0
SeedEastHotPG/SGCoachKenPom since FebPG/SG ExpCoach Tour Exp
1Villanova5561st to 2nd5Brunson & Booth7Jay Wright9
16LIU Brooklyn284th to 251st6Batts & Agosto3Derek Kellogg4
16Radford176th to 170th5Jones & Fields1Mike Jones0
8Virginia Tech11139th to 32nd7Robinson & Wilson7Buzz Williams8
9Alabama60th to 51st7Sexton & Petty1Avery Johnson4
5West Virginia22218th to 13th7Carter & Miles10Bob Huggins10
12Murray St.60th to 59th5Morant & Stark3Matt McMahon0
4Wichita St.11120th to 20th5Frankamp & Reaves7Gregg Marshall8
13Marshall131st to 114th7Elmore & West4Dan D'Antoni0
SeedEastHotPG/SGCoachKenPom since FebPG/SG ExpCoach Tour Exp
6Florida2228th to 23rd7Chiozza & Allen9Michael White5
11St. Bonaventure275th to 69th6Adams & Mobley10Mark Schmidt3
11UCLA254th to 48th6Holiday & Ali5Steve Alford8
3Texas Tech11112th to 12th5Evans & Culver7Chris Beard4
14Stephen F. Austin126th to 111th7Augustin & Bogues4Kyle Keller0
7Arkansas1148th to 37th7Macon & Beard9Mike Anderson9
10Butler121st to 25th5Baldwin & Jorgensen4LaVall Jordan0
2Purdue3333rd to 5th5Edwards & Thompson6Matt Painter8
15Cal St. Fullerton171 to 153rd7Smith & Allman4Dedrique Taylor0
SeedMidwestHotPG/SGCoachKenPom since FebPG/SG ExpCoach Tour Exp
1Kansas1437th to 9th6Graham & Newman8Bill Self9
16Penn152nd to 127th8Foreman & Woods8Steve Donahue7
8Seton Hall1129th to 26th6Carrington & Powell6Kevin Willard6
9North Carolina St.364th to 42nd9Johnson & Beverly2Kevin Keatts6
5Clemson22116th to 19th4Mitchell & Reed6Brad Brownell6
12New Mexico St.40th to 55th3Harris & N'Dir4Chris Jans0
4Auburn1129th to 16th2Harper & Brown4Bruce Pearl10
13College of Charleston147th to 120th8Chealey & Pointer8Earl Grant0
SeedMidwestHotPG/SGCoachKenPom since FebPG/SG ExpCoach Tour Exp
6TCU11119th to 22nd4Robinson & Bane5Jamie Dixon8
11Arizona St.27th to 45th1Martin & Evans3Bobby Hurley7
11Syracuse47th to 54th3Howard & Battle5Jim Boeheim10
3Michigan St.2226th to 6th5Winston & McQuaid4Tom Izzo10
14Bucknell107th to 100th6Brown & Mackenzie6Nathan Davis3
7Rhode Island1134th to 49th3Garrett & Dowtin7Dan Hurley7
10Oklahoma126th to 47th0Young & McGusty1Lon Kruger8
2Duke4344th to 3rd6DuVal & Allen3Mike Krzyzewski10
15Iona123rd to 134th4"McGill & Casimir
"6Tim Cluess5

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