NBA Draft Raid of Nevada, Villanova and Kentucky In 24 Days Would Leave Duke No. 1

Value Add Basketball calculates Nevada, Villanova and Kentucky in the top three spots after hundreds of transfers and NBA decisions in May tracked on the google sheet of projections of all players and teams. However, multiple players on each of those teams may still leave for the NBA draft in 24 days, leaving Nevada only 71% of their current Value Add and Villanova and Kentucky 67% each.

As long as the NBA claims at least one player from each of those teams Duke will emerge as the preseason favorite. The table below shows each team's current Value Add rating, followed by their conference and the percent of their Value Add that would remain in a worst case of all their prospects turning pro. Teams cut their losses because their 9th best player moves into the rotation if the top star goes pro, and then the 10th best player if two leave for the pros etc.

NBA Draft Net projects five Duke players will be taken in the NBA Draft, but because the have committed to leave their Values are not included in Duke's 4th best 46.65 rating. However, Nevada's 52.98 top ranking assumes both 31, Cody Martin (ranked 31st with a 7.85 Value Add) and Caleb Martin (ranked 48th with a 7.51) stay - so if one or both leave Nevada would likely drop behind Duke despite solid replacements. Likewise Kentucky and Villanova.

The Big East-centric breakdown will appear on this CBS/247 site and the Facebook page.

Here is the top 25 assuming everyone stays, with the percentage each team would retain if every prospect listed departed. The ranking of all teams can be found here.

Rnk	Team	Top 8 VA	Conf	% if NBA players lost	Possible NBA (rank, player, Value Add)
1	Nevada	52.98	MWC	71%	31, Cody Martin, 7.85 & 48, Caleb Martin, 7.51
2	Villanova	47.51	BE	67%	25, Spellman, 8.01 & 32, DiVincenzo, 7.84
3	Kentucky	47.21	SEC	67%	180, Washington, 5.65, 241, Vanderbilt, 5.17 & 272, Gabriel, 4.93
4	Duke	46.65	ACC	100%
5	Kansas	42.26	B12	83%	64, Azubuike, 7.03
6	Tennessee	42.01	SEC	69%	70, Schofield, 6.98 & 161, Alexander, 5.89
7	Oregon	41.52	P12	100%
8	North Carolina	40.31	ACC	100%
9	Mississippi St.	40.05	SEC	64%	43, Holman, 7.58 & 75, Weatherspoon, 6.93
10	Maryland	39.36	B10	64%	33, Huerter, 7.82 & 137, Fernando, 6.2
11	Louisiana St.	39.18	SEC	100%
12	Auburn	38.66	SEC	84%	154, Wiley, 6.00
13	Gonzaga	37.94	WCC	85%	183, Hachimura, 5.62
14	Syracuse	37.44	ACC	59%	39, Battle, 7.7 & 40, Brissett, 7.69
15	North Carolina St.	35.07	ACC	83%	168, Dorn, 5.81
16	Indiana	34.95	B10	100%
17	Virginia	34.62	ACC	81%	102, Hunter, 6.55
18	Texas	34.28	B12	85%	255, Roach, 5.03
19	UCLA	34.26	P12	71%	238, Hands, 5.19 & 275, Wilkes, 4.91
20	Kansas St.	34.16	B12	83%	165, Brown, 5.84
21	Michigan St.	33.63	B10	80%	90, Ward, 6.64
22	Virginia Tech	33.49	ACC	87%	381, Alexander-Walker, 4.25
23	Marquette	33.13	BE	100%
24	Florida	32.73	SEC	80%	93, Hudson, 6.61
25	Iowa	32.49	B10	100%

3 New Yankees Sluggers Give Edge Over Astros; Red Sox and Indians Round Out For AL Contenders based on Statis-Pro

Unlike other tabletop baseball games, Statis-Pro player cards enable fans to quickly grasp the value of a player. An average pitcher had a PB of 2-6, meaning he controlled the game on the card equivalent of a dice roll of 2-6, but a pitcher card with a 2-9 indicated he only risks hitting the batter's card on the equivalent of a 10, 11 or 12 roll to rate as one of the top 5% of all pitchers.

When a pitcher allows the batters' card to come into play yields an average home run range is 27-32 - actually four home runs out of 64 possible results on the base-8 system (there is no 29 or 30 combo). If you take 30 seconds to type in 9 MLB projected stats to let the google sheet calculate crude cards for Yankee rookies Miguel Andujar and Tyler Austin you see they have fantastic home run ranges of 32-36 and 24-32 respectively. Add the massive Home Run range of 22-34 Giancarlo Stanton who came to the Yankees from Miami after leading baseball in home runs and you realize the new Yankees lineup looks more like the 1927 Yankees than the team that just missed the World Series last year with Aaron Judge and company.

Looking through the cards of the strong players (2-8 or 2-9 pitchers or strong home run/hit range) gained or lost to adjust for how much a team's cards look better or worse than last year, the Statis-Pro rosters rank the Cleveland Indians as tops due to incredible pitching from starters to relievers, and the Yankees seem to be second best behind that line-up with the Astros and Red Sox right behind them and the Angels improved enough to perhaps sneak in as the final wild-card team.

In real life after one month, the first four playoff teams match-up but the Seattle Mariners are ahead of the Angels for the final spot. However, the Indians would only make the playoffs due to the AL Central being very weak, and the Astros starting rotation that looks just above average is actually lights out (top trio is 10-1 with a 1.50 ERA vs. going 55-49 with a 3.88 ERA in their combined two seasons before joining the Astros.

At the end of the season, we will see if the final standings are closer to what they are now or to how good the cards look from last year moved to their current rosters as reflected below. You can play Statis-Pro here or by finding an old game on-line, and you can order cards or make your own using this google sheet. (Notes on my Statis-Pro season are kept here)

Team	Rating	2017 W	L	Big additions (or full seasons)	Losses
Cleveland Indians	10.0	102	60	Chisenhall 28-35 PT, Alonso 24-32	Robertson R 2-8 FA
New York Yankees	9.0	91	71	New Stanton (Mia) 22-34 fr Mia, Andujar 31-35, 27-37	Castro 36-41 to Mia
Houston Astros	8.6	101	61	Stassi 26-33	None
Boston Red Sox	8.6	93	69	Martinez 25-38 Com, Velazquez 2-8R PT,	None
Los Angeles Angels	8.0	80	82	Cozart (Cin) 31-36, Upton 26-34 Det, Ohtani 34-38 & 2-8S Japan, Richards 2-8 S PT	Petit 2-8 Rel to Oak
Minnesota Twins	6.2	85	77	Reed 2-8 Mets, Morrison 21-28W TB	None
Seattle Mariners	5.2	78	84	Nicasio 2-8R Com, Leake 2-8 S PT, Healy 32-36 Oak, Gordon 42 a/a fr Mia	Zych 2-8 R FA
Toronto Blue Jays	4.8	76	86	Hernandez 22-34 PT, Grichuk 24-31 StL	Rasmus 27-37 PT to Bal, Leone 2-8R to St Louis
Texas Rangers	4.4	78	84	Minor 2-8R KC	None
Baltimore Orioles	4.2	75	87	Rasmus 27-37 TB/PT, Beckman 35-42 PT	Castillo 31-37 CWS
Chicago White Sox	3.8	67	95	Delmonico 24-32 PT, Castillo 31-37 Balt, Gioliti 2-8 StPT, Avila 2-8 RelLAD,	Cabrera 35-38 Free agent
Oakland Athletics	3.4	75	87	Olson 15-32 PT, Petit 2-8 Rel LAA	Alonso 24-33 to Cle , Madson 2-9 to Wash, Healy 32-36 Oak to Sea
Kansas City Royals	2.8	80	82		Hosmer 36-42 to SD, Alexander 2-8 Rel LAD, Minor 2-8R Tex
Tampa Bay Rays	2.4	80	82	Wendell 42-43	Morrison 21-28W to Minn, Dickerson 33-37 to Pitt, Hunter to Phillies 2-8R, Cishek 2-9R PT,
Detroit Tigers	0.0	64	98	CAldelario 41-42 PT,	JD Martinez 27-37 PT, Upton 27-35W
AL Average	5.4	81.7	80.3	Ave. AL Batting Card 27-32 HR, Pitcher 2-6

NFL Draft Takes Most Early Talent From; 1) LSU, 2) Bama, 3) Texas, 4) Stanford, 5) Ohio State

While college seniors prepare for graduation in the coming weeks, the following student-athletes chose to instead enter this week's NFL draft before their senior year of college football. We took a look at the teams hurt the most by talented players leaving early.

We calculated 25 points for losing a player who would be one of the first few picks, all the way down to 2 points for a player who left early but might not even be drafted. Admittedly I go into more detail on the student-athletes leaving early for the NBA draft and the projections for all remaining players and their teams (click here), but the NHL, baseball and NBA drafts are not until June so here is the focus on this week's NFL draft.

The hardest hit team was LSU, which loses running back Derrius Guice (23 of 25 possible points), defensive backs Donte Jackson and Kevin Toliver (20 and 19), linebacker Arden Key (18), center Will Clapp (C) and then some minor players in Toby Weathersby and Travonte Valentine (tackle and nose tackle both worth two points). All together, that tallies 100 points even.

We list LSU's players first on the table below, and then we list the rest of the teams who lost someone early to the draft in alphabetical order. This worked out nicely because Alabama appears first alphabetically and happens to also be the second hardest hit with 87 points lost between five players. However, you will have to scroll down alphabetically to see the next three hardest hit in Texas, Stanford and Ohio State. I will actually be on Ohio State's campus for graduation weekend due to working on a redistricting ballot measure in the state for www.takeback.org - which has more student signups there than on any other campus. We will keep updates coming at www.pudnersports.com.

Team	Players lost to draft before senior year	Value	Pos
LSU	1 rank, LSU lost 7 early entrees	100	Team 1
LSU	Derrius Guice	23	RB
LSU	Donte Jackson	20	DB
LSU	Kevin Toliver	19	DB
LSU	Arden Key	18	LB
LSU	Will Clapp	17	C
LSU	Toby Weathersby	2	T
LSU	Travonte Valentine	2	NT
Alabama	2 rank, Alabama lost 5 early entrees	87	Team 2
Alabama	Minkah Fitzpatrick	24	DB
Alabama	Calvin Ridley	24	WR
Alabama	Ronnie Harrison	21	DB
Alabama	Bo Scarbrough	16	RB
Alabama	Da'Ron Payne	2	NT
Arizona St.	36 rank, Arizona State lost 3 early entrees	18	Team 36
Arizona St.	Christian Sam	15	LB
Arizona St.	JoJo Wicker	2	DT
Arizona St.	Sam Jones	2	G
Auburn	8 rank, Auburn lost 4 early entrees	58	Team 8
Auburn	Carlton Davis	22	DB
Auburn	Kerryon Johnson	21	RB
Auburn	Jeff Holland	12	LB
Auburn	Kamryn Pettway	2	RB
Benedictine	47 rank, Benedictine lost 1 early entrees	2	Team 47
Benedictine	Matt Fleming	2	WR
Boise St.	27 rank, Boise State lost 1 early entrees	23	Team 27
Boise St.	Leighton Vander Esch	23	LB
Clemson	29 rank, Clemson lost 4 early entrees	22	Team 29
Clemson	Deon Cain	10	WR
Clemson	Taylor Hearn	8	G
Clemson	Ray-Ray McCloud	2	WR
Clemson	Van Smith	2	DB
Colorado	28 rank, Colorado lost 1 early entrees	23	Team 28
Colorado	Isaiah Oliver	23	DB
Florida	14 rank, Florida lost 3 early entrees	43	Team 14
Florida	Taven Bryan	22	DT
Florida	Antonio Callaway	19	WR
Florida	Eddy Pineiro	2	K
Florida St.	18 rank, Florida State lost 4 early entrees	32	Team 18
Florida St.	Tarvarus McFadden	14	DB
Florida St.	Josh Sweat	14	DE
Florida St.	Auden Tate	2	WR
Florida St.	Jalen Wilkerson	2	DE
FSU	21 rank, FSU lost 2 early entrees	27	Team 21
FSU	Derwin James	25	DB
FSU	Ryan Izzo	2	TE
Georgia	15 rank, Georgia lost 2 early entrees	42	Team 15
Georgia	Roquan Smith	25	LB
Georgia	Trenton Thompson	17	DT
Houston	41 rank, Houston lost 1 early entrees	13	Team 41
Houston	Kyle Allen	13	QB
Indiana	42 rank, Indiana lost 1 early entrees	13	Team 42
Indiana	Simmie Cobbs	13	WR
Iowa	12 rank, Iowa lost 2 early entrees	48	Team 12
Iowa	James Daniels	24	C
Iowa	Josh Jackson	24	DB
Kansas	35 rank, Kansas lost 1 early entrees	18	Team 35
Kansas	Dorance Armstrong	18	DE
Kansas St.	43 rank, Kansas State lost 2 early entrees	11	Team 43
Kansas St.	Byron Pringle	10	WR
Kansas St.	DJ Reed	2	DB
Louisiana-Monroe	48 rank, Louisiana-Monroe lost 1 early entrees	2	Team 48
Louisiana-Monroe	JJ Dallas	2	DB
Louisville	6 rank, Louisville lost 3 early entrees	65	Team 6
Louisville	Lamar Jackson	25	QB
Louisville	Jaire Alexander	24	DB
Louisville	Geron Christian	16	T
Marshall	39 rank, Marshall lost 1 early entrees	15	Team 39
Marshall	Chase Litton	15	QB
Maryland	17 rank, Maryland lost 2 early entrees	35	Team 17
Maryland	DJ Moore	23	WR
Maryland	JC Jackson	12	DB
Miami	16 rank, Miami lost 4 early entrees	38	Team 16
Miami	RJ McIntosh	18	DT
Miami	Kendrick Norton	10	DT
Miami	Mark Walton	9	RB
Miami	Courtel Jenkins	2	DT
Middle Tennessee	46 rank, Middle Tennessee lost 1 early entrees	5	Team 46
Middle Tennessee	Richie James	5	WR
NC St.	19 rank, NC State lost 2 early entrees	32	Team 19
NC St.	Will Richardson	16	T
NC St.	Nyheim Hines	16	RB
Nebraska	40 rank, Nebraska lost 2 early entrees	14	Team 40
Nebraska	Tanner Lee	9	QB
Nebraska	Nick Gates	6	T
Nevada	49 rank, Nevada lost 1 early entrees	2	Team 49
Nevada	Vosean Crumbie	2	DB
Notre Dame	10 rank, Notre Dame lost 3 early entrees	56	Team 10
Notre Dame	Quenton Nelson	25	G
Notre Dame	Josh Adams	16	RB
Notre Dame	Equanimeous St Brown	15	WR
Ohio St.	5 rank, Ohio State lost 3 early entrees	65	Team 5
Ohio St.	Denzel Ward	25	DB
Ohio St.	Sam Hubbard	21	DE
Ohio St.	Jerome Baker	19	LB
Oklahoma	13 rank, Oklahoma lost 4 early entrees	47	Team 13
Oklahoma	Mark Andrews	22	TE
Oklahoma	Orlando Brown	21	T
Oklahoma	Du'Vonta Lampkin	2	DT
Oklahoma	Dwayne Orso-Bacchus	2	T
Ole Miss	38 rank, Ole Miss lost 1 early entrees	16	Team 38
Ole Miss	Breeland Speaks	16	DE
Oregon St.	45 rank, Oregon State lost 1 early entrees	10	Team 45
Oregon St.	Ryan Nall	10	RB
Penn St.	22 rank, Penn State lost 1 early entrees	25	Team 22
Penn St.	Saquon Barkley	25	RB
Pittsburg St.	50 rank, Pittsburg State lost 1 early entrees	2	Team 50
Pittsburg St.	Juante Baldwin	2	DB
Pittsburgh	24 rank, Pittsburgh lost 3 early entrees	25	Team 24
Pittsburgh	Brian O'Neill	22	T
Pittsburgh	Jordan Whitehead	2	DB
Pittsburgh	Quadree Henderson	2	WR
Purdue	51 rank, Purdue lost 1 early entrees	2	Team 51
Purdue	Eddy Wilson	2	DT
San Jose St.	52 rank, San Jose State lost 1 early entrees	2	Team 52
San Jose St.	Frank Ginda	2	LB
SMU	20 rank, SMU lost 2 early entrees	31	Team 20
SMU	Courtland Sutton	24	WR
SMU	Trey Quinn	7	WR
South Carolina	26 rank, South Carolina lost 1 early entrees	23	Team 26
South Carolina	Hayden Hurst	23	TE
Southeastern Louisiana	53 rank, Southeastern Louisiana lost 1 early entrees	2	Team 53
Southeastern Louisiana	Maea Teuhema	2	T
Southern Miss	54 rank, Southern Miss lost 1 early entrees	2	Team 54
Southern Miss	Korey Robertson	2	WR
Stanford	4 rank, Stanford lost 4 early entrees	70	Team 4
Stanford	Harrison Phillips	21	DT
Stanford	Justin Reid	18	DB
Stanford	Dalton Schultz	17	TE
Stanford	Quenton Meeks	15	DB
Tennessee	32 rank, Tennessee lost 3 early entrees	19	Team 32
Tennessee	Rashaan Gaulden	10	DB
Tennessee	John Kelly	7	RB
Tennessee	Reginald McKenzie	2	DT
Texas	3 rank, Texas lost 6 early entrees	82	Team 3
Texas	Connor Williams	23	T
Texas	Malik Jefferson	22	LB
Texas	DeShon Elliott	14	DB
Texas	Holton Hill	12	DB
Texas	Michael Dickson	7	P
Texas	Chris Warren	4	RB
Texas A&M	30 rank, Texas A&M lost 1 early entrees	21	Team 30
Texas A&M	Christian Kirk	21	WR
Texas Tech	44 rank, Texas Tech lost 1 early entrees	11	Team 44
Texas Tech	Keke Coutee	11	WR
Toledo	55 rank, Toledo lost 1 early entrees	2	Team 55
Toledo	Olasunkanmi Adeniyi	2	DE
UCF	31 rank, UCF lost 2 early entrees	19	Team 31
UCF	Jordan Akins	18	TE
UCF	Tre'Quan Smith	2	WR
UCLA	9 rank, UCLA lost 4 early entrees	57	Team 9
UCLA	Josh Rosen	25	QB
UCLA	Kolton Miller	24	T
UCLA	Jordan Lasley	6	WR
UCLA	Austin Roberts	2	TE
UNC	56 rank, UNC lost 1 early entrees	2	Team 56
UNC	Andre Smith	2	LB
USC	11 rank, USC lost 4 early entrees	55	Team 11
USC	Sam Darnold	25	QB
USC	Ronald Jones	22	RB
USC	Deontay Burnett	6	WR
USC	Rasheem Green	2	DT
Virginia Tech	7 rank, Virginia Tech lost 3 early entrees	59	Team 7
Virginia Tech	Tremaine Edmunds	25	LB
Virginia Tech	Tim Settle	20	DT
Virginia Tech	Terrell Edmunds	14	DB
Wake Forest	37 rank, Wake Forest lost 1 early entrees	17	Team 37
Wake Forest	Jessie Bates	17	DB
Washington	25 rank, Washington lost 1 early entrees	24	Team 25
Washington	Vita Vea	24	NT
Washington St.	34 rank, Washington State lost 2 early entrees	18	Team 34
Washington St.	Hercules Mata'afa	17	DE
Washington St.	Tavares Martin	2	WR
Western Kentucky	57 rank, Western Kentucky lost 1 early entrees	2	Team 57
Western Kentucky	Joel Iyiegbuniwe	2	LB
Wisconsin	33 rank, Wisconsin lost 1 early entrees	19	Team 33
Wisconsin	Nick Nelson	19	DB
Wyoming	23 rank, Wyoming lost 1 early entrees	25	Team 23
Wyoming	Josh Allen	25	QB

Projected 1st Round March Madness Match-ups; Recent Transfer Winners and Losers

After another 100+ updates this weekend on transfers, signings, NBA departures and other college basketball moves, here are the projected 1st round March Madness games based on player projections at www.valueaddbasketball.com (allow edits at https://tinyurl.com/y9mr9uu4). After the list, we lay out recent moves and which colleges were the biggest winners and losers.

Rnk	Team	Value Projection	Conf	Seed	1st Round NCAA Match-ups
1	Kentucky	67.07	SEC	1	Lehigh/Texas Southern Winner
2	Villanova	57.26	BE	1	Stephen F. Austin/Howard winner
3	Kansas	56.58	B12	1	Vermont
4	Nevada	56.55	MWC	1	New Mexico St.
5	Oregon	55.99	P12	2	St. Francis PA
6	Auburn	55.56	SEC	2	Northern Kentucky
7	Duke	54.37	ACC	2	UC Davis
8	Mississippi St.	49.22	SEC	2	Rider
9	North Carolina	48.92	ACC	3	Liberty
10	UCLA	46.17	P12	3	Belmont
11	Gonzaga	45.87	WCC	3	Georgia St.
12	Syracuse	45.27	ACC	3	Marshall
13	Tennessee	45.05	SEC	4	Lipscomb
14	Maryland	44.78	B10	4	UNC Greensboro
15	LSU	44.15	SEC	4	Harvard
16	Virginia	44.12	ACC	4	Buffalo
17	Virginia Tech	41.66	ACC	5	Loyola Chicago
18	Ohio St.	41.55	B10	5	Houston
19	North Carolina St.	41.5	ACC	5	Davidson
20	Marquette	41.45	BE	5	BYU/Michigan winner
21	Michigan St.	41.44	B10	6	Washington/San Diego St. winner
22	South Dakota St.	40.36	Sum	6	Indiana
23	USC	39.83	P12	6	Alabama
24	Florida	39.7	SEC	6	Notre Dame
25	Texas	39.33	B12	7	Boston College
26	Montana	39.18	BSky	7	Iowa St.
27	Miami FL	38.22	ACC	7	Creighton
28	Arizona St.	38.02	P12	7	Wisconsin
29	Northeastern	37.88	CAA	8	Northwestern
30	Florida St.	37.62	ACC	8	TCU
31	Kansas St.	37.5	B12	8	Providence
32	Iowa	36.88	B10	8	Texas Tech

And here are teh biggest winners and losers in recent updates at https://tinyurl.com/y9mr9uu4.

Rnk	Recent Change	Biggest Recent Winners	Loser	Value
75	Omer Yurtseven	Georgetown in 2020	NC State	7.04
78	Ashton Hagans	Kentucky	his highschool	7.00
174	Blake Francis	Richmond in 2020	Wagner	5.88
212	DeSean Murray	Not yet known	Auburn	5.45
297	MaCio Teague	Available in 2020	UNC Asheville	4.89
326	Ryan Welage	Xavier in 2020	San Jose State	4.66
328	Brandon Williams	Oregon/Crystal Ball	None	4.65
382	Austin Reaves	Not yet known	Wichita St.	4.32
442	Zach Johnson	Miami FL	Florida Gulf Coast	4.10
440	Ronnie Harrell	Denver	Creighton	4.10
444	Courtney Ramey	Louisville/Crystal Ball	None	4.09
469	Carlton Bragg 15	New Mexico in 2020	Arizona State	3.98
502	Kassoum Yakwe	Connecticut	St. John's	3.85
505	Marcus Burk	Available in 2020	Campbell	3.84
598	Justin Gorham	Available in 2020	Towson	3.57
656	Juwan Gray	Available in 2020	San Diego	3.35
669	David Caraher	St. John's in 2020	Houston Baptist	3.32
783	Nick Norton	Drake	UAB	2.97
830	Austin Nehls	Ball St.	Central Connecticut State	2.78
846	Joseph Chartouny	Marquette	Fordham	2.75
880	Eric Lockett	Not yet known	Florida International	2.66
897	Jacob Young	Rutgers	Texas	2.63
908	Antwann Jones	Memphis/Crystal Ball	None	2.60
930	James Akinjo	Georgetown/Crystal Ball	None	2.56
957	Matthew Moyer	Vanderbilt in 2020	Syracuse	2.50
974	Jordan Jones	Available in 2020	Charleston Southern	2.46
1060	Jordan Nobles	Oakland	Eastern Michigan	2.23
1090	Izaiah Brockington	Unknown	St. Bonaventure	2.20
1114	CJ Jones	Not yet known	Arkansas	2.19
1134	Mason Faulkner	Available in 2020	Northern Kentucky	2.14
1149	Josh McFolley	Available in 2020	Detroit	2.11
1162	Bobby Planutis	Not yet known	Mount St. Mary's	2.07
1172	Tyler Harris	Memphis/Crystal Ball	None	2.06
1242	Jy'lan Washington	Tennessee State	Louisiana Tech	1.90
1260	Justin Thomas	Available in 2020	Northern Illinois	1.88
1290	Nedeljko Prijovic	Maine in 2020	Texas State	1.82
1301	Tarin Smith	Connecticut	Duquesne	1.81
1310	Aaron Calixte	Oklahoma	Maine	1.78
1343	Blake Hinson	Mississippi/Crystal Ball	None	1.70
1382	Andy Van Vliet	William & Mary in 2020	Wisconsin	1.63
1432	Caleb McConnell	Rutgers/Crystal Ball	None	1.50
1519	Lukas Kisunas	Arizona/Crystal Ball	None	1.35
1800	Payton Willis	Minnesota	Vanderbilt	1.06

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15 players being dropped from Value Add Projections - Headed for NBA

As a follow-up to other articles, here are all the players being dropped from the Value Add Basketball database of 2019 projections, still leaving more than 5,400 players or open roster spots. Khyri Thomas has actually been added back into the database because he did not sign an agent.

Player out of Projections	Height	Team losing player	Value
Mikal Bridges #25	6-foot-7	Villanova	11.06
Jalen Brunson #1	6-foot-2	Villanova	10.44
Moe Wagner #13	6-foot-11	Michigan	8.58
Landry Shamet #11	6-foot-4	Wichita State	8.17
Khyri Thomas #2	6-foot-3	Creighton/could go NBA	8.03
Anfernee Simons	6-foot-4	High School	7.80
Malik Newman #14	6-foot-3	Kansas	7.42
Marcus Derrickson #24	6-foot-7	Georgetown	6.86
Hamidou Diallo #3	6-foot-5	Kentucky	5.64
Mustapha Heron #5	6-foot-5	Auburn	5.38
Lonnie Walker #4	6-foot-5	Miami FL	5.09
Trevon Duval #1	6-foot-3	Duke	4.38
Justin Jackson #21	6-foot-7	Maryland	1.18
Drew Edwards #25	6-foot-4	Providence	0.77
Dikembe Dixson #10	6-foot-7	Chicago State	0.40
Fred Sims #14	6-foot-4	Chicago State	0.30

Statis-Pro Standings, Pre-season ranking based on cards and Results (2018 Rosters, 2017 Player Cards) - All-Star results added

We keep the updated standings of the current AL season we are playing here, and while the sample size of games is low enough that there are always some surprises (think of the Mets start early this year), right now our season lines up with four of the same five teams in line for the playoffs as in actual play. The exceptions is the lowly Orioles are actually one game ahead of the real-life surprising Mariners for the last playoff spot. The White Sox have also played well above their real season.

The two differences between the real season and our simultaneous play is that we use cards based on last year's stats, and we let anyone on the roster play even if they are injured or suspended. Two of the reason the White Sox and Orioles are better in Statis-Pro are the great hitting cards of Colby Rasmus, who was actually out most of the season before quitting baseball again, and Welington Castillo, who looked like a big time pick-up in our game but has been serving an 80-day suspension in real life. All that and the variable luck plays in a short season and here are the AL standings followed by how our All-Star games went in Statis-Pro.

AL Team	W	L	GB	Win%	New Opponent	IF playoffs today
Houston	25	11	0	0.694	Milwaukee	AL West Pennant
New York	23	13	-2	0.639	NY Mets	AL East Pennant
Boston	21	15	-4	0.583	Cincinnati	Wild Card host
Cleveland	24	18	-4	0.571	4-2 v Pittsburgh	AL Central
Baltimore	20	16	-5	0.556	Chicago Cubs	Wild Card visitor
Seattle	19	17	-6	0.528	San Diego
Chicago	22	20	-6	0.524	2-4 vs Washington
Kansas City	17	19	-8	0.472	Atlanta
Oakland	16	20	-9	0.444	Colorado
Minnesota	14	22	-11	0.389	Philadelphia
Los Angeles	14	22	-11	0.389	Miami
Tampa Bay	14	22	-11	0.389	NL
Texas	14	22	-11	0.389	LA Dodgers
Toronto	13	23	-12	0.361	Arizona
Detroit	13	23	-12	0.361	San Francisco

NL Wins All-Star Series two games to one with two cliffhanger wins

Game 1 (NL 4, AL 3) – As soon as Clayton Kershaw was gone, Carlos Correa’s homer and Gary Sanchez rbi as part of a 2 of 3 days gave the NL a 2-1 lead and a 7-3 edge in hits through three innings that held up into the 7^th inning.

However, a 2-run homer by the Cubs’ Anthony Rizzo and solo shot by the Rockies Trevor Story rallied the NL in the 7^th and 8^th to take a dramatic 4-2 lead with Corey Knebel striking out the side in between for the win and the Cubs Brandon Morrow pitching through an error, walk and hit in the 9^th for a dramatic opening game win.

Game 2 (NL 2, AL 1 in 12 innings) Brandon Morrow appeared ready to wrap up a Game 2 shutout when the NLs great defense (3b Arenado throwing a runner out at home, and Molina throwing Trout out stealing) was replaced with a dropped line drive at first base by Posey and a rare bobbled pitch by Molina to let a runner get to third who then scored an unearned run to force extra innings.

However, Herrera doubled in the top of the 12^th and Parra’s sac fly to right clinched the series with a 2-1 12^th inning run once Hendricks worked the 11^th and 12^th for a win as he induced Judge to ground into a double play to end the 11^th and Altuve to strikeout to end the game.

Game 3 (AL 5, NL 2) Gary Sanchez was moved in front of Adrian Beltre in the lineup for Game 3 – and belted a homer-hitting after Yankees teammate Aaron Judge to spark the AL to salvage a game. Justin Verlander pitched three scoreless innings, and Mike Moustakas came off the bench to drive in two more runs for a 5-0 lead.

The NL did get to Ranger Alex Claudio to cut the lead to 5-2, but the Indians-Red Sox combo of Andrew Miller and Craig Kimbrel was once again shut down to get the Hold and the Save to salvage the final of the three games and actually give the AL the better run differential.

While the NL won the series on two cliffhangers, the AL not only had a 9-8 edge in run differential in the three-game series and destroyed the NL in the futures game 7-2 as Ohtani went three shut out innings for the win. Tampa’s Field hit two homers for 5 RBIs, and the Yankees Austin had two runs and doubles on a three of four day, and the White Sox Palka added a single and an RBI triple.

Here is the composite box for the All-Star Games:

Pos	All-Start Line-Up	Team	AB	H	HR	RBI	R		Notes
CF	George Springer	Hou	7	1	0	0	0
SS	Carlos Correa	Hou	7	2	1	1	1
DH	Mike Trout	LA	7	1	0	0	1
RF	Aaron Judge	NY	8	2	0	0	1
3B	Adrian Beltre	Tex	5	1	0	0	0
C	Gary Sanchez	NY	7	3	1	2	1		Gm 3 HR in win
2B	Robinson Cano	Sea	5	1	0	0	0
1B	Edwin Encarnacion	Cle	6	3	0	0	1
LF	Andrew Benintendi	Bos	5	1	0	0	0
Pos	Reserves	Team	AB	H	HR	RBI	R		Notes
2B	Jose Altuve	Hou	7	1	0	0	0
SS	Jeimer Candelario	Det	2	0	0	0	0
C	Wellington Castillo	Chi	6	2	0	0	1
RF	Shin-Soo Choo	Tex	4	1	0	1	0
CF	Delino DeShields	Tex	1	0	0	0	0
CF	Dustin Fowler	Oak	1	0	0	0	0
RF	Avisail Garcia	Chi	4	0	0	0	0
1B	John Hicks	Det	2	1	0	0	0
CF	Kevin Kiermaier	TB	6	0	0	0	1
3B	Francisco Lindor	Cle	1	0	0	0	0
3B-SS	Manny Machado	Bal	5	1	0	0	1
C	Russell Martin	Tor	0	0	0	0	0
1B	Joe Mauer	Min	4	0	0	1	0
LF	Whit Merrifield	KC	3	0	0	0	0
SS	Mike Moustakas	KC	3	1	0	2	1		2 RBI in Gm 3 win
P-DH	Shohei Ohtani	LA	1	0	0	0	0
2B	Dustin Pedroia	Bos	0	0	0	0	0
	Pitchers		IP	H	R	ER	BB	K
Gm 1	Corey Kluber	Cle	2	3	1	1	0	2
Gm 2	Shohei Ohtani	LAA	3	2	1	1	1	7
Gm 3	Justin Verlander	Hou	3	2	0	0	1	1	Gm 3 win
	Alex Claudio	Tex	4	7	4	4	0	6	Gm 1 loss
	Dallas Keuchel	Hou	3	1	0	0	0	4
	Craig Kimbrel	Bos	3	1	0	0	0	4	Gm 3 save
	Mike Leake	Sea	3	4	1	1	0	2	Gm 2 loss
	Andrew Miller	Cle	4	3	1	1	2	6	Gm 3 hold
	Chris Sale	Bos	4	2	0	0	1	4
Pos	AL All-Star Line-up	Team	AB	H	HR	RBI	R		Notes
RF	Gerardo Parra	Col	5	6	0	1	1		Gm 2 GW SF in 12th
2B	DJ LaMahieu	Col	4	5	0	0	0
DH	Joey Votto	Cin	7	2	1	1	1		Gm 2 HR
1B	Cody Bellinger	LA	5	1	0	1	0
3B	Nolan Arenado	Col	11	1	0	0	0
CF	Michael Conforto	NY	4	1	0	0	0
SS	Corey Seager	LA	5	0	0	0	0
LF	David Peralta	Arz	5	0	0	0	0
C	Yadier Molina	Stl	8	0	0	0	0
Pos	Reserves	Team	AB	H	HR	RBI	R		Notes
2B-3B-1B	Matt Carpenter	Stl	0	0	0	0	0
1B	Freddie Freeman	Atl	3	1	0	0	0
2B	Scooter Gennett	Cin	7	1	0	0	0
CF	Odubel Herrera	Phl	2	1	0	0	1		12th in 2b, GW R Gm 2
CF	Ender Inciarte	Atl	4	1	0	0	0
CF	Andrew McCutchen	SF	7	0	0	0	0
CF	AJ Pollock	Arz	5	1	0	0	1
C	Buster Posey	SF	6	3	0	2	0		last 2 RBIs, rally short
1B	Anthony Rizzo	Chi	2	1	1	2	1
SS	Trevor Story	Col	5	3	1	1	2
1B	Ryan Zimmerman	Was	4	3	0	0	1
Started	AL Pitchers	Team	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	Notes
Gm 1	Clayton Kershaw	LA	2	4	0	0	0	1
Gm 2	Chase Anderson	Mil	3	1	0	0	0	1
Gm 3	Carlos Martinez	Stl	3	2	1	1	1	4	Gm 3 Loss
	Jake Arrieta	Phl	2	4	1	0	0	4
	Luis Castillo	Cin	1	3	0	0	0	0
	Josh Hader	Mil	1	1	0	0	0	1
	Brad Hand	SD	2	0	0	0	0	2
	Kyle Hendricks	Chi	2	1	0	0	0	2	Gm 2 W, 11th-12th
	Yoshihisa Hirano	Arz	3	0	0	0	2	4
	Raisel Iglesias	Cin	2	0	0	0	1	1
	Corey Knebel	Mil	2	0	0	0	0	5	Gm 2 Win
	Brandon Morrow	Chi	3	3	2	0	1	5	Gm 2 Save
	Hector Neris	Phl	1	3	3	3	1	1	G3 collapse
	Jose Urena	Mia	0	0	0	0	0	0
	Felipe Vazquez	Pit	3	1	0	0	0	2

The updates standings and final AL All-Star selections are now posted here.

(14 NL teams will play 14 AL teams WITH the DH after the games above, but Tampa Bay and St. Louis will be left out since they already played two interleague teams)

NL Standings

The NL went 55-41 in AL Statis-Pro games to date, which were all played with the pitchers batting. After the Oakland at St. Louis series, the next interleague series will all be played with the DH, but the following are the NL teams that did the best in my games against the AL. Keep in mind each NL team played it's games against one specific NL team, so some had touch challenges and some had easy challenges:

The official NL games are being played by my friend.

My friend does not use my quirky "game counts as 3-game series" system, so his records in the NL are straight up one statis pro game per game in the record. He took the top 8 teams as opposed to the whole league. He also played some interleague games with these 8 and even though he used the DH and I did not - seemingly giving the AL the advantage - the NL went 11-5 in those games which are part of the records below. While the AL seems to have the three best teams in actual MLB play, overall the leagues had actually split interleague games exactly 50-50 as of a few days ago. The Cubs are in 1st and if they met the 2nd best team in the league - Milwaukee - at this point, they would have only a 90 minute drive to Miller Park for way games. If they faced the third-place St. Louis Cardinals, they would have only a 4 1/2 hour drive to Busch Stadium.

National League Standings (does not include my AL interleague games)
Chicago          11-4
Milwaukee      10-5
St. Louis          9-6
Washington     7-8
Colorado         7-8
Los Angeles     6-9
New York        6-9
Arizona           6-9

Team Notes:
The Cubs establishing themselves.
Fewest runs allowed  (15gm/51 RA)
Best Run Differential  (15gm/  +19)

No surprise, most runs scored
Colorado  (15 gm/87 RS)
However, Home Runs
Milwaukee (15 gm/ 24 HR)
Colorado (15 gm/20 HR)

Obscure Stat of the Month
(I'm calling this a Statis-Pro Record)
The Dodgers lost to the Rockies 10-5,
and LA left 17 men on-base.  They had 13 hits
and a generous 9 walks from Colorado pitching.
So 5 runs scored and literally every other man was left out there!

All-Star Considerations

We will both figure out how to select our All-Star teams in the near future.

In the AL, I am also scoring MVP voting based on results. We play everyone without regarding for injuries or suspensions, and Cano and Judge are now tied for MVP with Indians starter Kluber.

Top All-Stars, MVPs	MVP Points	(top 3 players each game divide up 9 star points - max 5 for one player)
Judge NY	15
Cano Sea	13
Kluber Cle	13
Miller Cle	12
Verlander Hou	12
Beltre Tex	11
Merrifield KC	11
A Garcia Chi	10
Ohtani LA	10
Springer Hou	10
Correa Hou	9
Encarcacion Cl	9
Leake Sea	9
Mahtook Det	9
Moustakas KC	9
Sale Bos	9
Sanchez NY	9
Candelario Det	8
Castillo Chi	8
DeShields Tex	8
Duffy KC	8
Trout LA	8
Altuve Hou	7
Avilon Chi	7
Choo Tex	7
Faria TB	7
Keuchel Hou	7
Lindor Cle	7
Martinez Stl	7
Pedroia Bos	7
Benintendi Bos	6
Betts Bos	6
Brantley Cle	6
Cashner Bal	6
Cruz Sea	6
Davidson Chi	6
Fulmer Det	6
Joyce Oak	6
Kiermaier TB	6
Kimbrel Bos	6
Ozuna StL	6
Powell Oak	6
Sanchez Chi	6
Andrus Tex	5
Avila Ari	5
Bradley Bos	5
Castillo Cin	5
Cespades NYM	5
Chacin Mil	5
Contreras ChiC	5
Cozart LA	5
Cron TB	5
Desmond Col	5
Estrada Tor	5
Gattis Hou	5
Giolito Chi	5
Hicks NY	5
Martinez Det	5
Odorizzi TB	5
Pearce Tor	5
Perez KC	5
Richards LAA	5
Rizzo ChiC	5
Stroman Tor	5
Triggs Oak	5
Hiriano Ari	4	4
Andujar NY	4
Arrieta Ari	4
Barnhart Cin	4
Beckman Bal	4
Berrios Min	4
Bregman Hou	4
Cobb Bal	4
Deitrich Mia	4
Escobar KC	4
Field TB	4
Freeman Atl	4
Garcia Chi	4
Gibson Min	4
Goody Cle	4
Greinke Ari	4
Harrison Pitt	4
Healy Sea	4
Herrera KC	4
Incarte Atl	4
Junis TB	4
L Garcia Chi	4
Marisnick Hou	4
Martin Tor	4
McCutcheon SF	4
Olson Oak	4
Paxton Sea	4
Reed Mi	4
Roberts NY	4
Rosario Min	4
Sano Min	4
Santana Phi	4
Sequia Sea	4
Severino NY	4
Sotu... Was	4
Stanton NY	4
Allen Cle	3
Alonso Cle	3
Bauer Cle	3
Bour Mia	3
Buxton Min	3
Castro Bal	3
Chiranos Tex	3
Conforte NYM	3
Freese Pit	3
Gomes Cle	3
Gomez Tex	3
Gray NY	3
Gregorius NY	3
Gross Mi	3
Gurriel Hou	3
Haniger Sea	3
Happ Tor	3
Herrera Phi	3
Heyward ChiC	3
Hicks Det	3
Ianetta Col	3
Kershaw LAD	3
Mauer Min	3
Mengden Oak	3
Murphy Was	3
Nicasio Sea	3
Parker LA	3
Phelps Sea	3
Rivera LA	3
Sanchez Tor	3
Santana Min	3
Santiago Chi	3
Schebler Cin	3
Scherzer Was	3
Seager Sea	3
Shoemaker LA	3
Smoak Tor	3
Sucre TB	3
Trumbo Bal	3
Tulowitzke Tor	3
Upton LA	3
Votto Cin	3
Archer TB	2
Bleier Bal	2
Bonifacio KC	2
Britton Bal	2
Chapman Oak	2
Claudio TX	2
Cole Hou	2
Davis Oak	2
Delminico Chi	2
Donaldson Tor	2
Doolittle Was	2
Duda KC	2
Duffy TB	2
Gardner Phi	2
Giles Hou	2
Gonzalez Sea	2
Gordon KC	2
Hand SD	2
Harper Was	2
Kepler Cle	2
Lowrie Oak	2
Martin Det	2
McCann Atl	2
McCann Hou	2
Minor Tex	2
Moncado Chi	2
Moreland Bos	2
Morrison Min	2
Peacock Hou	2
Petit Oak	2
Piscotty Oak	2
Price Bos	2
Rasmus Bal	2
Reddick Hou	2
Schoe Bal	2
Tepera Tor	2
Urena Mia	2
Warren NY	2
Zimmer Cle	2
Anderson Chi	1
Anderson Mil	1
Beckham Mil	1
Bellinger LAD	1
Bruce NYM	1
Escobar Min	1
Grandal LAD	1
Green NY	1
Hechavarrio TB	1
Morales Tor	1
Parra Col	1
Posey SF	1
Ramirez Cle	1
Simmons LA	1
Store Col	1
Torres NY	1

Who is hot in the NL: 

David Peralta, Arz (19-39 .487) DJ LaMahieu, Col (19-47 .404) Matt Carpenter, Stl 5 HR Gerardo Parra, Col 11 RBI Anthony Rendon, Wsh 11 RBI Jose Martinez, Stl 11 Runs Scored Kyle Hendricks, Chi (3-0, 2.45) Who is not: Bryce Harper, Wsh (3-34, 0 HR, 0 RBI) Stephen Strasburg, Wsh (0-3, 4.75)

Update: We are adding rookie cards on a spreadsheet that lets you add any player you want in this google sheet. I based new cards on the MLB projected stats for the whole year, and going through rookie pitchers with more than 14 innings pitched Shane Carle of the Atlanta Braves is the only PB2-8 pitcher so far. I started the rookie batters just with their actual stats to get something on the page, and Houston has a Home Run 26-33, while the Yankees have 31-35 and 27-37 and Tampa Bay has a 42-43, but because the sample is small I will look at batters projections before actually playing with new rookies. This definitely makes the Yankees much stronger and the Astros and Rays a bit stronger than the rankings I have further down in this blog.

AL League Rules

Each game counts as a 3-game series. Winning team gets a 2-1 series win unless they win by at least 5 runs without extra innings, in which case they get a 3-0 sweep. Mathematically, it is just as hard to get a 5-run win as a sweep and run differential is a truer test in the short season.

Using 2017 Statis-Pro cards but current rosters. As long as someone is on the roster they can be used in a better role (eg a player with a better card from last year can play ahead of the player actually starting this year, or relievers who have better cards can be the closer. Also, relievers can be used to protect against a sweep (closer to hold a 5-run lead or keep a 4-run deficit from becoming a 5-run deficit.