Sunday, May 27, 2018

NBA Draft Raid of Nevada, Villanova and Kentucky In 24 Days Would Leave Duke No. 1

Value Add Basketball calculates Nevada, Villanova and Kentucky in the top three spots after hundreds of transfers and NBA decisions in May tracked on the google sheet of projections of all players and teams. However, multiple players on each of those teams may still leave for the NBA draft in 24 days, leaving Nevada only 71% of their current Value Add and Villanova and Kentucky 67% each.

As long as the NBA claims at least one player from each of those teams Duke will emerge as the preseason favorite. The table below shows each team's current Value Add rating, followed by their conference and the percent of their Value Add that would remain in a worst case of all their prospects turning pro. Teams cut their losses because their 9th best player moves into the rotation if the top star goes pro, and then the 10th best player if two leave for the pros etc.

NBA Draft Net projects five Duke players will be taken in the NBA Draft, but because the have committed to leave their Values are not included in Duke's 4th best 46.65 rating. However, Nevada's 52.98 top ranking assumes both 31, Cody Martin (ranked 31st with a 7.85 Value Add) and Caleb Martin (ranked 48th with a 7.51) stay - so if one or both leave Nevada would likely drop behind Duke despite solid replacements. Likewise Kentucky and Villanova.

The Big East-centric breakdown will appear on this CBS/247 site and the Facebook page.

Here is the top 25 assuming everyone stays, with the percentage each team would retain if every prospect listed departed. The ranking of all teams can be found here.

RnkTeamTop 8 VAConf% if NBA players lostPossible NBA (rank, player, Value Add)
1Nevada52.98MWC71%31, Cody Martin, 7.85 & 48, Caleb Martin, 7.51
2Villanova47.51BE67%25, Spellman, 8.01 & 32, DiVincenzo, 7.84
3Kentucky47.21SEC67%180, Washington, 5.65, 241, Vanderbilt, 5.17 & 272, Gabriel, 4.93
5Kansas42.26B1283%64, Azubuike, 7.03
6Tennessee42.01SEC69%70, Schofield, 6.98 & 161, Alexander, 5.89
8North Carolina40.31ACC100%
9Mississippi St.40.05SEC64%43, Holman, 7.58 & 75, Weatherspoon, 6.93
10Maryland39.36B1064%33, Huerter, 7.82 & 137, Fernando, 6.2
11Louisiana St.39.18SEC100%
12Auburn38.66SEC84%154, Wiley, 6.00
13Gonzaga37.94WCC85%183, Hachimura, 5.62
14Syracuse37.44ACC59%39, Battle, 7.7 & 40, Brissett, 7.69
15North Carolina St.35.07ACC83%168, Dorn, 5.81
17Virginia34.62ACC81%102, Hunter, 6.55
18Texas34.28B1285%255, Roach, 5.03
19UCLA34.26P1271%238, Hands, 5.19 & 275, Wilkes, 4.91
20Kansas St.34.16B1283%165, Brown, 5.84
21Michigan St.33.63B1080%90, Ward, 6.64
22Virginia Tech33.49ACC87%381, Alexander-Walker, 4.25
24Florida32.73SEC80%93, Hudson, 6.61