Showing posts with label Bradley basketball. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bradley basketball. Show all posts

Monday, January 1, 2024

During Rose Bowl, Old-School Temple Beats Bradley in Battle of 1950s Final 4 Teams

We couldn't compete with Michigan's overtime win against Alabama in the Rose Bowl tonight, but we fit in a battle of of two Value Add Basketball Game all-time great teams form seasons in which they made their second Final 4 of the 1950s.

The all-time great Temple and NBA player Guy Rodgers (who led the NBA in various seasons in assists per game) was the best player in this game, though Bradley's Bob Carney also played a bit in the NBA. 

Bradley's 1954 and Temple's 1958 team went back and forth for most of the game, and the first time either team had a 3-point lead was when Temple's future NBA player Guy Rodgers came up with a steal and fed Bill Kennedy on the fast break (the 20-sided die is lowered by one number on a fast break after a steal by a guard or odd numbered die steal by a forward). That made it 41-38 Temple with 13:11 or 22 possessions remaining in the game.was still close until 5-minutes left when Temple led 56-51. 

However, Kennedy hit only the third 3-pointer of the game for Temple, and in the process Bradley's one future NBA player Bob Carney fouled out and Kennedy completed the 4-point play to make i t60-51. While Carney had a subpart 6-point outing on offense, he would have been needed to have a chance of catching up with his highest level 11-16, 31 (all) steal range that had already resulted in four steals in the game.

While both teams were making their second Final Four in just a few years, Temple was the stronger team. They barely missed the title game with a 61-60 loss in the semifinal to the eventual champion Kentucky, and then won the consolation game to finish third place. Meanwhile Bradley's 1950 Final Four team appeared to have been much better, but like some very early teams there were almost no stats available to produce player cards so we went with the 1954 Final Four team. We are not clear why the 1954 squad was ranked No. 7 that year, because they were only 15-12 on the season and only played three ranked teams, but they received a bid nonetheless and then did make the run to the Final Four to back it up.

Temple moves from 72nd to 33rd in our Pomeroy-like all-time ratings, while Bradley dropped from 161st to 179th all-time. Temple will play #29 New Mexico State which moved from 84th to 29th with a blowout of Richmond, and the winner of that game will get the winner of UMass 1996 and Charlotte 1977 in one semifinal.

Keep in mind the original ratings are likely closer to how good the team is as they are based on how good the player cards are in the game. However, we could be off in underestimating or over overestimating teams and we purposely give more credit for any win then www.kenpom.com does despite using a very similar formula. (we basically used a version close to that used by www.kenpom.com but we give the winning team an extra 4 points credit and subtract 4 points from the loser for each game.

Of our 200 teams only four of the newest additions have not played and will be featured in our next two games as we make sure there are no glitches in the cards (sub as substitution errors we caught on Tulsa 2000).  Those games are #98 Drake (1969) against #138 Nevada (2004) and #149 Buffalo (2019) vs. #192 Western Kentucky (1966).

Bradley 1954        Pts  3pt 2pt  FT  Att Reb Stl  Blk  Fl  Season Actual                           
John Kent102200210313.0 Pts, 4.1 Reb
Bob Carney60300240516.2 Pts, 7.0 Reb-NBA
Eddie King5021240029.2 Pts, 4.3 Reb
Dick Estergard130534502214.5 Pts, 12.3 Reb
Dick Petersen7120252246.3 Pts, 5.9 Reb
Lee O'Connell4012011013.2 Pts, 1.1 Reb
John Riley2010010012.0 Pts, 1.4 Reb
Harvey Babetch8040040016.1 Pts, 3.1 Reb
Jerry Hansen3011230015.4 Pts, 2.9 Reb
Barney Kilcullen2010010012.4 Pts, 3.8 Reb
13 Turnovers60322710288421 
           
           
           
Temple 1958Pts3pt2ptFTAttRebStlBlkFlSeason Actual
Guy Rodgers161534550220.1 Pts, 6.6 Reb, 5.2 Ast-NBA
Bill Kennedy252677110113.5 Pts, 3.3 Reb
Mel Brodsky60222701210.9 Pts, 7.5 Reb
Tink Van Patton10050090136.6 Pts, 10.5 Reb
Jay Norman90256802213.0 Pts, 11.9 Reb
Joe Goldenberg0000010021.4 Pts, 0.5 Reb
Jack Peepe0000010011.1 Pts, 1.1 Reb
Ophie Franklin2010020012.1 Pts, 2.5 Reb
Pete Goss0000020021.3 Pts, 1.4 Reb
Dan Fleming4020030015.0 Pts, 4.3 Reb
18 Turnovers723231719396417

Thursday, November 23, 2023

Missouri Valley and Return of Value Add Basketball Rankings

All-Missouri Valley Conf          Team             Value  AdjO  AdjD   Notes
Roman PennDrake8.3411296.512-seed, 27-8 (PG), Poss 24.8%
Tucker DeVriesDrake7.14111.996.512-seed, 27-8, Poss 26.9%
Rienk MastBradley7.06114.598.525-10, Poss 25.4%
Garrett SturtzDrake7.04124.296.512-seed, 27-8, Poss 14.6%
Robbie AvilaIndiana St.6.73119.9103.123-13, Poss 22.2%
2nd T-Missouri Valley ConfTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Drew FribergBelmont5.37124.3107.521-11, Poss 14.1%
Even BraunsBelmont5.33121.1107.521-11, Poss 17.1%
Cade TysonBelmont4.66115.5107.521-11, Poss 20.8%
Marcus DomaskSo Illinois4.58104.298.523-10, Poss 27.8%
Ben KrikkeValparaiso4.19112.9108.311-21, Poss 25.9%
HM-Missouri Valley ConfTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Bowen BornNo Iowa3.90104.5106.614-18 (PG), Poss 28.4%

Above is a very late All-Missouri Valley Conference team from the 2022-23 season, and we will be updating these and the top 300 players at www.valueaddbasketball.com to go along with the rankings going back to the 2001-02 season. While this system received rave reviews from Sports Illustrated, ESPN, Fox Sports and many others, last season we skipped because we lost the ability to rank all 4000 players who take the court for D1 action.

Note from below that Roman Penn actually just missed the All-American list with his 8.34 falling just below 8.56 for the last spot.

While the conference obviously lost a few potential national powers to realignment in the past decade, and its been a long time since Larry Bird was at Indiana State, they still boast four top 100 teams hoping to step it up just a bit to challenge in the tournament.

Team                      2023    2024     2025       Seed23   Rnk24
BelmontMVCMVCMVC 183
BradleyMVCMVCMVC 75
DrakeMVCMVCMVC1284
EvansvilleMVCMVCMVC 241
Illinois ChicagoMVCMVCMVC 178
Illinois St.MVCMVCMVC 209
Indiana St.MVCMVCMVC 94
Missouri St.MVCMVCMVC 96
Murray St.MVCMVCMVC 180
Northern IowaMVCMVCMVC 130
Southern IllinoisMVCMVCMVC 110
ValparaisoMVCMVCMVC 327

Better late than never - this is one of 32 lists of All-Conference teams based on the "resurrected" Value Add Basketball rankings at www.valueaddbasketball.com. The other 31 releases of Conference teams will all include this same explanation for the rest of the blog, including the 10 returning All-Americans and top 60 players from last season listed further down.

This paragraph is of interest to stat nerds only. The offensive ratings were easier to recreate, since the basis was to pull hundreds of players ranked as the most efficient last season (AdjO at www.kenpom.com) and adjusting their figures for their percent of possessions. A player who can produce about 1.2 points per time he has the ball who also gets the ball 25% of the time against tough competition and as part of a strong defense can be All-American level, but a player who doesn't get the ball nearly as often but produces even more at 1.3 points per possession can still be All-Conference even if fans feel other players handling and shooting the ball more are better due to higher points scored per game.

The new simplified system weighs their ability to produce points against the Adjusted Defense (AdjD) - that is how many points per 100 trips would their team allow against an average D1 team. This accounts both for defense and for level of competition. We also note if a player is a Point Guard, the most important position on the court.

The resulting "Value" listed in the third column is the Value Add of points the player would improve an average team over if he could not play if a decent replacement took his place. Zach Edey was by far the most valuable player in the country last year at 13.17 meaning typically he would turn a 65-70 loss for a team into a 72-64 win - a 13 point swing. The notes off to the first indicated the team's record, their seed if they made the tournament, and then if they went to the NBA in the 2023 draft or are projected to go in the 2024 or 2025 draft.

1st and 2nd Team Returning All-Americans; and Top 60 Players from Last Season
 
The table below is the list of the 30 most valuable players in college basketball for the 2022-23 season according to our simplified www.valueaddbasketball.com rankings. Obviously most of these top players finished their eligibility or went pro so are no longer playing. However, if we made this our All-American teams of returning players including transfers at their new school the headline would be from Creighton.

1st Team Returning All-Americans - Value Add Basketball calculates that Creighton now has two of the three most valuable players in 2022-23 in returning Ryan Kalkbrenner and Utah State transfer Steven Ashworth. Ironically, Thursday it was Colorado State that handed Creighton its first loss - a team that Ashworth had dominated four of seven times in conference games at Utah State. The other 1st Team All-Americans based on last year's Value Add would be J'Wan Roberts returning for Houston, and then Tylor Perry who transferred from North Texas to Kansas State.

Most Valuable Player for 2nd Year. However, the far and away Most Valuable Player in the Country could challenge Anthony DavisJon Scheyer and Zion Williamson for as the most Valuable college player of the century in the All-Time Value Add Basketball Rankings - Zach Edey who was almost 2 points better than anyone in the country last year at Purdue and has them at No. 1 this season.

2nd Team Returning All-Americans - The 6th most valuable returning player according to Value Add is Marquette Point Guard Tyler Kolek. He would be joined on a second team All-American squad of returning players by Tennessee's Santiago Vescovi, Texas transfer from Oral Roberts Max Abmas, Duke's Ryan Young, Arizona's Azuolas Tubelis and finally Cam Spencer, who transferred from Rutgers to UConn.

In all, 18 of the top 30 players finished their college careers, leaving those 10 returning All-Americans and then two other players - JaKobe Coles of TCU and USC's Boogie Ellis.
 
All-American 1st Team    Team               Value    AdjO  AdjDNotes                                                
Zach EdeyPurdue13.17125.994.51-seed, 29-6, nba 58 in 2024
Adama Sanogo (gone)Connecticut11.37122.690.94-seed, 31-8, Poss 26.4%
Marcus Sasser (gone)Houston11.25123.490.41-seed, 33-4, nba 25 in 2023
Ryan KalkbrennerCreighton10.80133.493.26-seed, 24-13, Poss 19.4%
Steven Ashworth (Creigh)Utah St.10.72127.798.910-seed, 26-9 (PG), Poss 21.6%
All-American 2nd TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Tylor Perry (K-State)North Texas10.37124.394.131-7, Poss 24.4%
Brandon Miller (gone)Alabama10.23117.088.21-seed, 31-6, nba 2 in 2023
Xavier Castaneda (gone)Akron9.94121.9103.422-11 (PG), Poss 29.4%
J'Wan RobertsHouston9.90127.990.41-seed, 33-4, Poss 18.4%
Jordan Hawkins (gone)Connecticut9.88121.290.94-seed, 31-8, nba 14 in 2023
All-American 3rd TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Jaime Jaquez (gone)UCLA9.80113.1882-seed, 31-6, nba 18 in 2023
Jalen Pickett (gone)Penn St.9.66118.7101.110-seed, 23-14 (PG), nba 32 in 2023
Jordan Walker (gone)UAB9.64114.797.929-10 (PG), Poss 30.6%
Tyler KolekMarquette9.6311896.72-seed, 29-7 (PG), Poss 24.1%
Santiago VescoviTennessee9.52114.287.54-seed, 25-11 (PG), Poss 18.8%
All-American 4th TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Max Abmas (Texas)Oral Roberts9.47120.2102.212-seed, 30-5 (PG), Poss 27.6%
Trayce Jackson-Davis (g)Indiana9.45118.597.24-seed, 23-12, nba 57 in 2023
Ryan YoungDuke9.37128.793.95-seed, 27-9, Poss 18.3%
Kendric Davis (grad)Memphis9.24111.196.18-seed, 26-9 (PG), Poss 31.6%
Drew Timme (grad)Gonzaga9.21119.699.33-seed, 31-6, Poss 30.6%
All-American 5th TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Markquis Nowell (gone)Kansas St.8.92111953-seed, 26-10 (PG), Poss 27.6%
Souley Boum (gone)Xavier8.87119.298.63-seed, 27-10 (PG), Poss 21.2%
Oscar Tshiebwe (gone)Kentucky8.83122.698.86-seed, 22-12, Poss 24.5%
Terence Lewis (gone)Louisiana8.74131.2102.913-seed, 26-8, Poss 20.3%
Darius McGhee (gone)Liberty8.68114.597.527-9, Poss 33.4%
All-American 6th TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Azuolas TubelisArizona8.68116.196.32-seed, 28-7, Poss 28.7%
Cam Spencer (UConn)Rutgers8.66119.490.819-15, Poss 19.8%
Sir'Jabari Rice (gone)Texas8.66116.392.12-seed, 29-9, Poss 23.4%
JaKobe ColesTCU8.64118.494.36-seed, 22-13, Poss 23.4%
Boogie EllisUSC8.56113.397.510-seed, 22-11 (PG), Poss 25.7%