Monday, March 11, 2019

KS, TN, Zag and Furman Players Pass Zion for MVP

KS, TN, Zag and Furman Players Pass Zion for MVP

During his six games since the shoe explosion, Zion Williamson's Value Add Basketball ranking has dropped from the best in history to fifth in a photo finish for Most Valuable Player in college basketball. By getting a "0.00" for every missed game, his Value Add dropped from above 15 to being the 5th of five players in between 12 and 13 points better than a replacement player:

1Dedric Lawson #1Kansas12.886'9"B123 Jr9.26-3.62
2Matt Rafferty #32Furman12.426'8"SC4 Sr8.7-3.72
3Grant Williams #2Tennessee12.216'7"SEC3 Jr9.69-2.53
4Brandon Clarke #15Gonzaga12.136'8"WCC3 Jr8.67-3.47
5Zion Williamson #1Duke12.116'7"ACC1 Fr8.85-3.27

You may notice there are no guards in the top five. All-American voters try to balance positions for their top selections, so they will likely choose a couple of guards over these five front line players. Top prospects in the backcourt are Purdue's Carson Edwards, Michigan State's Cassius Winston, Virginia's Kyle Guy, Murray State's Ja Morant, while Jared Harper should get 1st team SEC PG after beating Tennessee. Finally, voters should consider the trio from the conference that seems to be trying to corner the market on point guards with three top-level players within 0.08 of each other in Value Add atop the conference. (Powell splits time between point guard and shooting guard).

24Myles Powell #13Seton Hall9.00BE2-Jun3 Jr7.65-1.36
26Shamorie Ponds #2St. John's8.95BE1-Jun3 Jr7.72-1.23
27Markus Howard #0Marquette8.92BE5-0113 Jr8.18-0.74

See my more in depth pieces on this CBS 247 site, and the Western Journal, as well as my blog at that explains the site and ratings of all 4000 players.

The list of all 32 of our selections are here with All-Conference player cards for the dice game, and all player cards are calculated here to simulate games once teams are picked for March Madness on Sunday.

Beyond picking the All-American teams, the biggest questions facing voters are whether the Player of the Year should be the best player when on the court - which is clearly Williamson - or the player who was most valuable over the course of the season. If the latter, then Williamson could certainly shoot back into first if he is back at full strength for the ACC tournament, but if not these this would be the closest five-way race ever based on Value Add - though we doubt Furman's Matt Rafferty will really get consideration even though Value Add does adjust for level of competition, so he is legit.

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