Sunday, March 13, 2016

Complete Bracket Picks: Streaks, Injuries, NBA Talent, Experienced Point Guards

If you just want a visual of the filled in Fox Sports bracket scroll to the bottom of the post, or you can go to the table and fill in each team on the number of lines indicated.

In the table, the number of bracket lines (wins) recommended for each team is followed by the overall Bracket Rating, then by their Sagarin Rating, if they are hot or cold (see Breitbart Story), how many points they will lose or gain based on the Value Add of injured or returning players, the number of likely NBA players on their team, how much they rely on experienced point guards and if they have the All-American or at least All-Conference players to take them to a title. Explanations of each follow at the bottom. 

You can click on my analysis of the Midwest, East, South and West brackets - which appear in Breitbart Sports.

SeedSouth RegionLines in Bracket    BracSagHotInjNBAPGAll-Americans
1Kansas4101.99320. 5th,5th,B12/2
16Austin Peay69.06720.1-0.70.6 OVC/1
8Colorado83.68210.4-1.01.2 4th
9Connecticut191.98621. Amer/1,2
5Maryland1 (talent for 3)90.487-23.4-0.12.2 5th,B10/2,2
12South Dakota St.80.87801.8-0.11.2 Sum/1,2
4California292.18620.62.4-0.11.2 P12/1,2
13Hawaii81.0800- BW/1,1
6Arizona92.88901.61.9-0.10.4 p12/2
11Vanderbilt92.78810.52.2-0.11.2 SEC/1,2
11Wichita St.292.38720.61.31.4 MVC/1,1
3Miami FL1 (could be 3)91.78901.11.30.4 ACC/2
14Buffalo75.17410.5-0.40.0 No All-MAC
7Iowa187.588-2-0.10.6-0.41.4 3rd
10Temple77.5780-0.8-0.10.4 Amer/2
2Villanova394.592-10.41.4-0.11.8 BE/1,2,2
15UNC Asheville74.2731-1.01.2 BSth/1,2
SeedWest RegionWinBracSagHotInjNBAPGAll-Americans
1Oregon1 (could be 3 or 4)91.48731.1-0.71.0 P12/2,2
16Southern68.267-10.41.8 SWAC/1,2,2
16Holy Cross64.76400.10.6 Amer/1
8Saint Joseph's82.882-10.20.5-0.41.4 A10/1,1
9Cincinnati286.28500.7-0.10.6 Amer/1
5Baylor89.88621.5-0.10.4 B10/2
12Yale183.9823-1.6-0.71.2 Ivy/1,2
4Duke390.289-2-1.52.9-0.72.4 2nd,ACC/1
13UNC Wilmington77.57700.10.4 CAA/2
6Texas190.085- B12/2
13Northern Iowa84.78030.20.11.4 MVC/1,1
3Texas A&M293.08821.60.41.0 Slnd/2,2
14Green Bay76.87420.40.4 Horz/2
7Oregon St.79.4810- 1st
10VCU186.8842- A10/2
2Oklahoma595.29001.01.82.4 1st,B12/2
15Cal St. Bakersfield78.77511.30.11.2 WAC/1,2
SeedEast RegionWinBracSagHotInjNBAPGAll-Americans
1North Carolina4100.19221.43.5-0.41.6 2nd
16Florida Gulf Coast72.57020.2-1.01.2 ASun/1,2
16Fairleigh Dickinson64.2640-0.40.6 NEC/1
8USC84.083- SB/1,2
9Providence187.08221.00.11.8 5th,BE/1
5Indiana192.7892- 4th
13Chattanooga77.3770-0.1-1.01.4 SC/1,1
4Kentucky2100.09020. 2nd,4th
13Stony Brook77.878-1- 3rd
6Notre Dame187.78412.20.10.4 ACC/2
11Michigan80.9840-3.91.8-1.00.0 No All-B10
11Tulsa79.680- Amer/1,2
3West Virginia (could be 4)94.39220.3-1.01.0 B12/2,2
14Stephen F. Austin287.78140.12.6 3rd,Slnd/2,2
7Wisconsin83.284-20.10.9-0.40.6 B10/1
10Pittsburgh185.88500.60.10.0 No All-ACC
2Xavier389.18800.9-0.40.6 BE/1
15Weber St.75.37400.5-0.41.2 BSky/1,2
SeedMidwest RegionWinBracSagHotInjNBAPGAll-Americans
1Virginia1 (could be 3)95.69210.80.41.4 3rd
16Hampton66.96501.10.10.6 MEAC/1
8Texas Tech81.182-10.10.0 No All-B12
9Butler388.88610. BE/2
5Purdue293.19021.7-1.00.4 B10/2
12Arkansas Little Rock79.2790-0.40.6 SB/1
4Iowa St.192.0880- 2nd,5th
13Iona81.97720. MAAC/mvp,2
6Seton Hall288.08430.6-0.10.6 BE/1
11Gonzaga89.5871-0.31.1-1.01.6 WCC/mvp,1
3Utah194.08722.01.4-0.11.8 1st
14Fresno St.77.7762- MWC/1
7Dayton83.783-22.20.1-0.10.6 A10/1
10Syracuse181.783-21.3-1.00.4 ACC/2
2Michigan St.6102.69332. 1st
15Middle Tennessee77.27520.8-1.00.4 CUSA/2

The "Bracket" Rating after each team is the total rating for the team based on the sum of the other columns. The teams with the best chance to win the tournament based on the other factors are Michigan State (102.6), Kansas (101.9), North Carolina (101.1), Kentucky (100.0) and Virginia (95.6).

The Sagarin Rating is how many points the team is better or worse than an opponent (if a team with an 86 plays a team with a 76, they should win by 10 points). The top teams based purely on how well the teams have played this season are Michigan State and Kansas at 93, and UNC, Virginia, Villanova and West Virginia all one point behind at 92.

The "Hot" rating indicates how much a team has been improving or fading over the past few weeks, primary at The hottest team going into the tournament is Stephen F. Austin (+4) followed by Michigan State, Oregon, Seton Hall, Yale and Northern Iowa all at +3.

The "Healthy" rating is a negative if a team is missing players (Oregon State and Michigan are missing key players), but it also indicates the teams that have key players back who missed parts of the season - thus making the team better now than their overall rating (Texas +3.1, Dayton +2.2, Michigan State +2.0 due to missing Valentine for several games, Utah +2.0 and South Dakota State +2.0. The list of players impact this rating were covered in a Breitbart Sports story.

The "NBA" rating is the estimation of how many players on the team will end up playing in the NBA based on Value Add basketball. If a team has two players with a 50% chance of making the NBA, we add the two .5 chances to estimate one NBA player emerges. As usual, Kentucky is first with an estimated four future NBA players on their team (4.33), followed by Kansas (3.54), UNC (3.46), Maryland (3.36), Duke (2.94), California (2.42), Notre Dame (2.19) and Vanderbilt (2.17).

The "Experienced Point Guard" indicates whether or not the team's top players are experienced guards particularly point guards, who can handle the pressure when things are not going well in the tournament. Oklahoma is the best in this regard with senior and Breitbart Sports National Player of the Year Buddy Hield and their second and third best players both being experienced point guards. They have a +1.8, while four teams have a 1.3 (Miami of Florida, Wichita State, UC Irvine and BYU). A team whose top players are all experienced front line players would have a 0.0.

The All-American rating is based on having the go-to players from the Breitbart Sports All-American team or at least an All-Conference posted here. A first team All-American like Denzil Valentine of Michigan State is worth 1.8 points, while Kentucky (3.0) has a second and fourth team All-American for the top spot. All-Conference players are worth much less, but Al McGuire's old saying that a team needs three and a half stars to win a title points to schools like Kansas (two All-Americans and one more All-Big 12 selection) as a contender.

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