Sunday, January 29, 2017

Value Add Version 5.0 Corrects for Trips Per Trip, Domination Distortion

Version 3.0 of Value Add corrected slight variations to ensure the sum of their players' Value Adds equalled the offensive and defensive team ratings on www.kenpom.com. If a team has an offensive rating of 108 and the sum of the players' Value Add indicates they only add up to a 106 offensive rating, then each player is adjusted upward precisely to account for the fact that they are doing something that is not showing up on the stat sheet. Likewise if the team is underperforming what their stats would calculate, each player is adjusted downward.

In January 2017, Value Add 5.0 calculated for two additional factors to adjust the 3.0 ratings:

1. Version 3.0 indicates the players Value Add in terms of how much each player impacts a team's trips up and down the court per 100 trips down the court. However, fans typically want to know how many points a player is worth to their team PER GAME. I have had callers tell me that even the great Ken Pomeroy cannot seem to explain the PER 100 TRIPS vs. PER GAME distinction in sound bites on the radio - as Jeff Sagarin's basketball rankings are much easier to understand as a "points per game" measurement.

We start by looking at www.kenpom.com to calculate that the average team during the tempo free era has had 67.2 trips down the court (possessions) per game - so the basic adjustment to get a POINTS PER GAME Value Add is to multiply their Version 3.0 Value by .672 to translate the final result to match up with Sagarin's rankings.


YearAve Trips
200269.5
200368.5
200467.7
200567.3
200667.0
200766.9
200866.9
200966.5
201067.3
201166.7
201266.1
201365.9
201466.4
201564.8
201669.0
201769.3
Average   67.2

2. The second factor adjusted by Version 5.0 is the distortion to the Value Add rating of players on great teams who sit on the bench when their teams are blowing out lesser opponents. These games are particularly damaging to a rating, because not only do the key players not get as many stats in those blowouts, but because they are often against teams with poor defenses, they receive a lower rating for those games due to going up against an inferior defense.

In going through the sixteen seasons, it appears the good players on the teams that win by the biggest margins lose enough Value Add to justify a multiplier of 1.3 to account for the extra minutes and possessions they could have had against the lesser early season opponents.

On the flip side the stars on poor teams often play almost all the minutes while getting blown out by the great teams, getting credit for scoring against the greatest defenses in the land even though points often come against the subs and even walk-ons for the great team. A review of the seasons indicates that the team that gets blow out by the biggest margins should have their Version 3.0 ratings multiplied by 0.695 to account for the easy points and other stats they get.

Each team gets a different multiplier, with the team winning by the second biggest margin getting a slightly smaller multiplier than the 1.305, all the way down to the players on the 351st team getting a 0.695.

However, we accomplish both items 1 and 2 in this piece by also multiplying those values by the .672 to account for trips per game, so the top victory margin team actually has their Version 3.0 Values multiplied by 0.877, and the team with the second biggest margin a slightly lower factor, making the actual factor for the 351st team 0.467.


Adjustment from v3.0 to v5.0    Domination Distortion    Multiplied by Trips/Game
Teams with biggest ave.victory margin     1.305    0.877
Average Team     1.000    0.672
Team with biggest average defeat margin     0.695    0.467

Some pure analytics people who attend MIT Sloan do not like any factor that is not purely mathmatically based, but I subscribe to the Bill James' approach that when observation gets you very close to an accurate mathematical equation, you administer it in a way that gets you as close as possible to the truth.

A player's Version 5.0 Value Add Ranking indicates how many points he can be worth to a team. However, the next question is how many points the player is worth over the replacement players of the actual team on which he plays.

When Version 5.0 was first calculated January 29, 2017, the average Value Add of the top player on each of the 351 teams was 5.13. The following is the average of each of top nine players (so the average 9th player of all 351 teams is 0.24.


TeamAve Value Add
Top Player5.13
2nd Player3.58
3rd Player2.69
4th Player2.02
5th Player1.46
6th Player1.01
7th Player (Subtract)0.68
8th Player0.42
9th Player0.24

This is the rating on which each player is ranked. The true value of a player to the actual team on which he played is usually lower, as it is approximately his Value Add minus the 7th best player on his team. So on a typical team:

The actual point value of the best player on a team is actually 5.13 MINUS the 7th best players total of 0.68 for a true value of 4.45.

The fact is that losing a player that is not one of the top six players is tiny and not worth adjusting the projected result of an upcoming game. Certainly there can be a starting point guard who has a low Value Add rating because he misses so many shots and turns the ball over so much that his Value Add is low, but in general it is very low.

For this reason, in the initial Version 5.0 Ratings on January 29, 2017, Gonzaga's Nigel Williams-Goss was the 20th most valuable player on Gonzaga's team at 9.21 points per game. He would in fact be worth 8.53 points per game to a typical team - so could turn a five point loss into a three- or four-point win, and that is the standard we use to measure his value against other teams.

However, the Gonzaga 2017 team is so loaded that Williams-Goss is actually only worth 4.91 points per game. Losing five points per game off your Sagarin rating is huge when you are competing for a national championship. When these figures were calculated, Gonzaga's Sagarin rating was 93.92 - second in the country - and subtracting 4.91 leaves a "Gonzaga without Williams-Goss" Sagarin Rating of 89.01 for 16th in the nation (Gonzaga/Sagarin 93.92 MINUS losing Williams-Goss 9.21 PLUS 4.45 for Gonzaga's 7th player equals 89.01.

Domino Effect, Not Baseball War

Why? Because his possessions and minutes are being used by players who are almost as good. Gonzaga's Josh Perkins has the best Value Add of any 7th man in the country at 4.30, so the domino effect from Williams-Perkins being out for a game to everyone down to Perkins getting more opportunities calculates as 9.21 (Williams-Goss Value Add) MINUS 4.91 (Perkins' Value Add) to equal 4.91 (actual point shift in the final score by Williams-Goss missing a game.

Many call me and try to figure out the Value Add of the backup player who will most likely replace the injured player, but unlike Baseball WAR where a specific player replaces another specific player both in the lineup and at a position in the field, the possessions are spread among several players and positions are even moved throughout the game to compensate. The one exception is when a great point guard is injured and the team lacks a decent backup point guard.

Louisville has the second best 7th man, and the following are the 40 teams with such a strong top seven that you need to subtract at least 1.70 from any of their player's Value Add ratings to get the true number of points the team will be hurt if the player is out.


RnkBest 7th Players 1/29/2017Teams w/ Deepest BenchSubtract from Value
1Josh Perkins^ 13Gonzaga4.30
2Anas Mahmoud^ 14Louisville4.10
3Justin Leon^ 23Florida3.51
4Jack Salt^ 33Virginia3.48
5Shaquille Morris^ 24Wichita St.3.44
6Nate Fowler^ 51Butler3.44
7Casey Benson^ 2Oregon3.03
8Terry Maston^ 31Baylor2.87
9Nate Britt^ 0North Carolina2.71
10Lamont West^ 15West Virginia2.71
11Carlton Bragg^ 15Kansas2.60
12Khalil Iverson^ 21Wisconsin2.60
13Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman^ 12Michigan2.49
14Mychal Mulder^ 11Kentucky2.45
15Katin Reinhardt^ 22Marquette2.43
16Ryan Cline^ 14Purdue2.33
17Temple Gibbs^ 2Notre Dame2.29
18Devontavius Payne^ 1East Tennessee St.2.27
19Eric Paschall^ 4Villanova2.27
20Jarquez Smith^ 23Florida St.2.26
21Niem Stevenson^ 10Texas Tech2.24
22Chance Comanche^ 21Arizona2.24
23Nathan Taphorn^ 32Northwestern2.15
24Jordan Murphy^ 3Minnesota2.14
25Alvin Ellis^ 3Michigan St.2.08
26Sedrick Barefield^ 2Utah2.08
27Shembari Phillips^ 25Tennessee2.06
28Trey Thompson^ 1Arkansas2.04
29Kamari Murphy^ 21Miami FL2.01
30Terrence Samuel^ 5Penn St.1.97
31Isaiah Zierden^ 21Creighton1.96
32Tre Scott^ 13Cincinnati1.94
33Drew Urquhart^ 25Vermont1.94
34Sam Miller^ 2Dayton1.92
35Paul Watson^ 3Fresno St.1.91
36Jarvis Garrett^ 1Rhode Island1.89
37Tyrique Jones^ 0Xavier1.89
38Carlbe Ervin^ 1Kansas St.1.75
39Horace Spencer^ 0Auburn1.70
40Jonah Mathews^ 2USC1.70

The following are the original top 25 players calculated using Version 5.0 based on the Louisville, Michigan State and Villanova wins on January 29, 2017. The entire 4000+ players were released at www.valueaddbasketball.com shortly thereafter:


RnkPlayerPts/Gm>ReplTeamConfHtClass
1Josh Hart^ 313.03VillanovaBE6'5"Sr
2Frank Mason^ 012.35KansasB125'11"Sr
3Luke Kennard^ 511.98DukeACC6'6"So
4Monte Morris^ 1111.37Iowa St.B126'3"Sr
5Lauri Markkanen^ 1011.15ArizonaP127'0Fr
6Yante Maten^ 110.41GeorgiaSEC6'8"Jr
7Ethan Happ^ 2210.39WisconsinB106'10"So
8Jevon Carter^ 210.35West VirginiaB126'2"Jr
9Ben Lammers^ 4410.13Georgia TechACC6'10"Jr
10Marcus Marshall^ 110.01NevadaMWC6'3"Sr
11Alec Peters^ 259.79ValparaisoHorz6'9"Sr
12Markelle Fultz^ 209.65WashingtonP126'4"Fr
13Jaylen Adams^ 109.58St. BonaventureA106'2"Jr
14Jalen Brunson^ 19.49VillanovaBE6'2"So
15Caleb Swanigan^ 509.48PurdueB106'9"So
16Sindarius Thornwell^ 09.32South CarolinaSEC6'5"Sr
17TJ Williams^ 109.32NortheasternCAA6'3"Sr
18Donovan Mitchell^ 459.29LouisvilleACC6'3"So
19Lucas Woodhouse^ 349.26Stony BrookAE6'3"Sr
20Nigel Williams-Goss^ 59.21GonzagaWCC6'3"Jr
21Jeffrey Carroll^ 309.20Oklahoma St.B126'6"Jr
22Dennis Smith^ 49.15North Carolina St.ACC6'3"Fr
23Bonzie Colson^ 359.05Notre DameACC6'5"Jr
24Joe Chealey^ 139.05College of CharlestonCAA6'4"Jr
25Jock Landale^ 349.05Saint Mary'sWCC6'11"Jr

Sunday, November 27, 2016

Value Add Basketball History and References

For a basic, succinct explanation of how Value Add Basketball pinpoints how many points each player is worth to his college team, click on articles in places such as the University of Arizona basketball siteBig Apple BucketsBleacher ReportBreitbart (700+ articles), ESPN (another ESPN draft guide), ESPN the MagazineFox NewsFox SportsNorthwestern State University, the Times-PicayuneSports Illustrated the Washington Post, blogs like Xavier Hoops Rumors and TV stations such as this one. The math is outlined in the following links.




1. Value Over Replacement Player

The system is similar to baseball WAR (Wins Above Replacement), meaning if a team is a 2-point favorite in a game before learning a player with a Value Add Rating of 4.0 cannot play and must be replaced by a borderline replacement player, then you subtract his rating and the team would be a 2-point underdog.

The first difference between Value Add and WAR are than WAR represents WINS above replacement over the course of a SEASON while Value Add measures POINTS above replacement in a typical GAME.  The second difference is that in baseball a player is replaced by one player (a shortstop is replaced by a shortstop who also takes a spot in the line-up), the impact of losing one player has a domino effect of perhaps a new "ninth player" getting a few minutes, but also of other players having to play more and thus becoming less efficient and drawing more defensive attention as calculated in great detail in this Big Apple Buckets piece.

2. The four main ratings

Value Add v5.0 Pts/Game - The most important figure is the Actual Value Add figure generated from the 5th version (v5.0) of the system. This gives the actual point impact a player has on a game, so a team that won 73-71 with a player with a Value Add of 4.00 would best estimated to lose 71-73 if a replacement player played instead of him. This final figure is a factor of the three figures that follow, but also accounts for a player getting less possessions because he is on a very good team and factors like this. In earlier years, this figure had to be adjusted based on the position a player played (the former PGPer) because point guards and perimeter defenders rated so much lower because they faced more risk of turnovers and could be muscled up and prevented from getting near the basket. Luckily the "freedom of movement rules" have allowed guards to move freely and there is now virtually no statistical difference between the average ratings of guards, forwards and centers eliminating a cumbersome adjustment.

AdjO - this is the figure of the player's impact on the identical rating that www.kenpom.com calculates for teams. So if www.kenpom.com gives a team a rating of 110.0 points per 100 trips down the court and a player's AdjO is 4.0, then the www.kenpom.com rating without him would be estimated at 107.0 (110.0 minus 4.00).

AdjD - the same is true of the defensive figure, where the bigger negative indicates great defense. So if www.kenpom.com calculates a player's defense at 94.0 AdjD per 100 trips down the court, a player's AdjD of 4.0 would be very bad, meaning the team would actually be a much better 90.0 AdjD with him replaced. However, a -4.00 AdjD for a player would be very good, meaning without the player the defense would start allowing 98.0 per 100 trips rather than just 94.0 if the player could not play.


AdjEM - The total of the two previous numbers equals the overall impact on www.kenpom.com team rating with the same name, which he gets by SUBTRACTING AdjD from AdjO as we do for the player. This is actually the Value Add 3.0 Rating, however it is in terms of 100 trips down the court rather than the lower number that results from the 70 or so trips during a game. While the AdjEM allowed a ball hog on a bad team to ring up an incredibly high rating by taking many of the shots, Version 5.0 calculates how many points the player would actually add in GAME for a strong team, so the Value Add number is much lower than the AdjEM.

3. Detailed Science Behind Value Add

If you want to truly follow the math, read on.

The science behind Value Add Basketball is laid out in Cracked Sidewalks pieces beginning in May 2011 and now. A massive effort to upgrade the system and pinpoint the impact each player had on his team's Offensive and Defensive Efficiency Ratings culminated at the end of 2015 with Value Add Version 3.0, 1000 lines of code, a series of improvements detailed here, and a simple explanation with illustrative tables to make the impact of each player easy to understand.

Others such as the Basketball Prospectus took the formula and suggested additional calculations based of the system, and Version 4.0 was introduced at the outset of the 2016-17, but honestly was the one version that did not work. We went back to the drawing board, and reach incredible breakthroughs in Version 5.0, which results in a current ratings that pinpoints everything we can measure on a court. Those improvements are detailed here.

John is now the Executive Director of Take Back Our Republic, a group working to find conservative solutions to the problem of money in politics. Anyone who wants to join that group simply needs to go to that page and type in their email and zipcode.

Value Add Basketball History and References

The science behind Value Add Basketball is laid out in Cracked Sidewalks pieces between May 2011 and now. A massive effort to upgrade the system and pinpoint the impact each player had on his team's Offensive and Defensive Efficiency Ratings culminated at the end of 2015 with Value Add Version 3.0, 1000 lines of code, a series of improvements detailed here, and a simple explanation with illustrative tables to make the impact of each player easy to understand.

Others such as the Basketball Prospectus took the formula and suggested additional calculations based of the system, and Version 4.0 was introduced at the outset of the 2016-17 season to measure the potential value of players based on how valuable they could be if they played 67% of the minutes and had 24% of the possessions during that time on the court.

Articles on the Value Add Basketball system appear in places such as the University of Arizona basketball siteBig Apple BucketsBleacher ReportBreitbart (700+ articles), ESPN (another ESPN draft guide), ESPN the MagazineFox NewsFox SportsNorthwestern State University, the Times-PicayuneSports Illustrated the Washington Post, blogs like Xavier Hoops Rumors and TV stations such as this one.

The system is similar to baseball WAR. However, while WAR measures one "replacement player" taking the place of a start player, in Value Add pin points the number of POINTS each college player is worth due to the "domino effect" of the impact on the entire game rotation when the player is lost.

John is now the Executive Director of Take Back Our Republic, a group working to find conservative solutions to the problem of money in politics. Anyone who wants to join that group simply needs to go to that page and type in their email and zipcode.


From there we have played around with some offshoots, but none of these pretend to pinpoint value like Value Add Basketball does.

1. Baseball - The value of 250+ starting pitchers from 2014 and 2015 with every start detailed, and with an explanation of how the metrix can work when other systems fail.

2. Football - The value of 6000+ returning players - really just for fun as a one year attempt to value everyone from tackles to quarterbacks.

3. State-by-State - The top athletes in each state (track, hockey, etc., cast your vote by sending an email to valueaddsports@gmail.com with up to 10 players listed in your state).

Tuesday, July 12, 2016

Kentucky NBA Alumni Might Sweep Next Best 35 College Alumni Teams

Click here for the full story breaking down the 36 colleges that produce 47.3% of all NBA talent, and their projected records if they played as one NBA team.


That story is one of my stories for Breitbart, and the large table with breakdown of how many wins each player from these 36 colleges would add to his team appears here in an earlier Best Returning Players Post. The projections are based on Value Add Basketball and Hollinger's Estimated Wins Added (EWA).

Saturday, July 9, 2016

Calculating records of 36 colleges with a complete NBA alumni roster

After laying out the calculation of additional wins of all NBA Players in the previous post, If we go the next step and rank all NBA players by the same method and then group them by their colleges, we have 27 colleges that could put a starting five on the court. When we add D-League players we get to a perfectly round 36 colleges.

Better yet, these 36 fall pretty nicely into the six current NBA Divisions, going with six colleges each Division. Using ESPN's Extra Wins formula for current NBA players and Value Add Basketball's ranking minus two for each player coming out of college this year, we give each college credit for the number of extra wins each of their top five NBA players delivered in 2016. If they have more than five NBA players we give half credit for the next best five players from the college, but any beyond 10 from one college are not counted.

Here are the final records we would expect from all 36 NBA players teams of current college players, and each players estimated win value in that division. At the bottom of the table the resultant playoff match-ups are listed:

PlayerEast - Atlantic DivisionWinsLossesGBCurrent Team
Team RecordConnecticut59230
Team RecordSyracuse4636-13
Team RecordGeorgetown4141-18
Team RecordVillanova3844-21
Team RecordVirginia2854-31
Team RecordMaryland2458-35
Lowry, KyleVillanova15.9Toronto Raptors
Drummond, AndreConnecticut14.2Detroit Pistons
Walker, KembaConnecticut14.2Charlotte Hornets
Monroe, GregGeorgetown13.0Milwaukee Bucks
Anthony, CarmeloSyracuse12.4New York Knicks
Gbinije, MichaelSyracuse6.9Detroit Pistons
Brogdon, MalcolmVirginia6.9Milwaukee Bucks
Gay, RudyConnecticut5.9Sacramento Kings
Porter, OttoGeorgetown4.5Washington Wizards
Lamb, JeremyConnecticut3.3Charlotte Hornets
Green, JeffGeorgetown2.8Orlando Magic
Carter-Williams, MichaelSyracuse2.4Milwaukee Bucks
Grant, JeramiSyracuse2.2Philadelphia 76ers
Len, AlexMaryland1.7Phoenix Suns
Scott, MikeVirginia1.5Atlanta Hawks
Anderson, JustinVirginia1Dallas Mavericks
Blake, SteveMaryland1Detroit Pistons
Butler, CaronConnecticut1agreed buy out
Christmas, RakeemSyracuse1Indiana Pacers
Cunningham, DanteVillanova1New Orleans Pelicans
Foye, RandyVillanova1Oklahoma City Thunder
Hibbert, RoyGeorgetown1Charlotte Hornets
Hilliard, DarrunVillanova1Detroit Pistons
Layman, JakeMaryland1Portland Trail Blazers
Sims, HenryGeorgetown1Brooklyn Nets roster
Stone, DiamondMaryland1Los Angeles Clippers
Vásquez, GreivisMaryland1Milwaukee Bucks
Ennis, TylerSyracuse0.5Milwaukee Bucks
Hamilton, DanielConnecticut0.5Oklahoma City Thunder
Johnson, WesleySyracuse0.5Los Angeles Clippers
McCullough, ChrisSyracuse0.5Brooklyn Nets roster
Napier, ShabazzConnecticut0.5Portland Trail Blazers
Richardson, MalachiSyracuse0.5Sacramento Kings
Thompson, HollisGeorgetown0.5Philadelphia 76ers
Villanueva, CharlieConnecticut0.5Dallas Mavericks
Waiters, DionSyracuse0.5Oklahoma City Thunder
Atkins, DarionVirginia0D-League
Bowen, AaronGeorgetown0D-League
Daniels, DeAndreConnecticut0D-League
Fair, C. J.Syracuse0.0D-League
Farrakhan, MustaphaVirginia0D-League
Pinkston, JayVaughnVillanova0D-League
Smith, JoshuaGeorgetown0D-League
Trawick, JabrilGeorgetown0D-League
Whittington, GregGeorgetown0D-League
PlayerEast - Central DivisionWinsLossesGB
Team RecordMarquette52300
Team RecordMichigan State4933-3
Team RecordOhio State4141-11
Team RecordIndiana3448-18
Team RecordMichigan2854-24
Team RecordWisconsin2656-26
Butler, JimmyMarquette13.3Chicago Bulls
Wade, DwyaneMarquette11.1Chicago Bulls
Green, DraymondMichigan State10.9Golden State Warriors
Conley, MikeOhio State7.4Memphis Grizzlies
Oladipo, VictorIndiana7.4Oklahoma City Thunder
Valentine, DenzelMichigan State7.2Chicago Bulls
Randolph, ZachMichigan State6.9Memphis Grizzlies
Crowder, JaeMarquette6.1Boston Celtics
Sullinger, JaredOhio State5.9Boston Celtics
Zeller, CodyIndiana4.9Charlotte Hornets
Crawford, JamalMichigan3.7Los Angeles Clippers
Turner, EvanOhio State3.6Portland Trail Blazers
Koufos, KostaOhio State3.4Sacramento Kings
Leuer, JonWisconsin3Detroit Pistons
Harris, GaryMichigan State2.8Denver Nuggets
Russell, D'AngeloOhio State2.5Los Angeles Lakers
Gordon, EricIndiana2.2Houston Rockets
Burke, TreyMichigan2.1Washington Wizards
Kaminsky, FrankWisconsin1.6Charlotte Hornets
Harris, DevinWisconsin1.4Dallas Mavericks
Anderson, AlanMichigan State1Washington Wizards
Dekker, SamWisconsin1Houston Rockets
Ellenson, HenryMarquette1Detroit Pistons
HardawayMichigan1Atlanta Hawks
LeVert, CarisMichigan1Brooklyn Nets roster
Matthews, WesleyMarquette1Dallas Mavericks
McGary, MitchMichigan1Oklahoma City Thunder
Vonleh, NoahIndiana1Portland Trail Blazers
Davis, DeyontaMichigan State0.5Memphis Grizzlies
Dawson, BrandenMichigan State0.5Los Angeles Clippers
Novak, SteveMarquette0.5Milwaukee Bucks
Payne, AdreianMichigan State0.5Minnesota Timberwolves
RobinsonMichigan0.5Indiana Pacers
Stauskas, NikMichigan0.5Philadelphia 76ers
Appling, KeithMichigan State0D-League
Blue, VanderMarquette0D-League
Buycks, DwightMarquette0D-League
Carlino, MattMarquette0D-League
Craft, AaronOhio State0D-League
Hayward, LazarMarquette0D-League
Jackson, TraevonWisconsin0D-League
Jones, VerdellIndiana0D-League
Morgan, JordanMichigan0D-League
Morris, DariusMichigan0D-League
Scott, ShannonOhio State0D-League
Thomas, DeshaunOhio State0D-League
Thompson, SamOhio State0D-League
Trice, TravisMichigan State0D-League
Williams, AmirOhio State0D-League
PlayerEast - Southeast DivisionWinsLossesGB
Team RecordDuke60220
Team RecordWake Forest5428-6
Team RecordFlorida4933-11
Team RecordNorth Carolina4834-12
Team RecordGeorgia Tech4735-13
Team RecordLSU2953-31
Paul, ChrisWake Forest18.4Los Angeles Clippers
Horford, AlFlorida11.6Boston Celtics
Favors, DerrickGeorgia Tech10.1Utah Jazz
Johnson, BriceNorth Carolina7.9Los Angeles Clippers
Bosh, ChrisGeorgia Tech7.8Miami Heat
Teague, JeffWake Forest7.8Indiana Pacers
Irving, KyrieDuke7.4Cleveland Cavaliers
Redick, JJDuke7.4Los Angeles Clippers
Young, ThaddeusGeorgia Tech7.3Indiana Pacers
Plumlee, MasonDuke6.9Portland Trail Blazers
Davis, EdNorth Carolina6.8Portland Trail Blazers
Williams, MarvinNorth Carolina6.3Charlotte Hornets
Deng, LuolDuke5.4Los Angeles Lakers
Okafor, JahlilDuke5.2Philadelphia 76ers
Parsons, ChandlerFlorida5.2Memphis Grizzlies
Duncan, TimWake Forest4.9San Antonio Spurs
Beal, BradleyFlorida4.3Washington Wizards
Bass, BrandonLSU3.9Los Angeles Lakers
Lee, DavidFlorida3.7Dallas Mavericks
Henson, JohnNorth Carolina3.4Milwaukee Bucks
Speights, MarreeseFlorida2.7Los Angeles Clippers
Aminu, Al-FarouqWake Forest2.6Portland Trail Blazers
Thornton, MarcusLSU2.4Washington Wizards
Hood, RodneyDuke2.3Utah Jazz
Ingram, BrandonDuke2.3Los Angeles Lakers
Parker, JabariDuke2.0Milwaukee Bucks
Barnes, HarrisonNorth Carolina1.8Dallas Mavericks
Jack, JarrettGeorgia Tech1.8Free Agent
Plumlee, MilesDuke1.5Milwaukee Bucks
Johnson, JamesWake Forest1Toronto Raptors
Martin, JarellLSU1Memphis Grizzlies
Mickey, JordanLSU1Boston Celtics
Morrow, AnthonyGeorgia Tech1Oklahoma City Thunder
O'Bryant, JohnnyLSU1Free Agent
Henderson, GeraldDuke0.9Philadelphia 76ers
Zeller, TylerNorth Carolina0.9Boston Celtics
Carter, VinceNorth Carolina0.6Memphis Grizzlies
Noah, JoakimFlorida0.6New York Knicks
Bonner, MattFlorida0.5San Antonio Spurs
Brewer, CoreyFlorida0.5Houston Rockets
Bullock, ReggieNorth Carolina0.5Detroit Pistons
Ellington, WayneNorth Carolina0.5Brooklyn Nets roster
Felton, RaymondNorth Carolina0.5Dallas Mavericks
Finney-Smith, DorianFlorida0.5Dallas Mavericks
Haslem, UdonisFlorida0.5Miami Heat
Shumpert, ImanGeorgia Tech0.5Cleveland Cavaliers
Simmons, BenLSU0.5Philadelphia 76ers
Smith, IshWake Forest0.5Detroit Pistons
Temple, GarrettLSU0.5Sacramento Kings
Brand, EltonDuke0Philadelphia 76ers
Cook, QuinnDuke0D-League
Curry, SethDuke0Dallas Mavericks
Dawkins, AndreDuke0D-League
DunleavyDuke0Cleveland Cavaliers
Frazier, MichaelFlorida0D-League
Green, DannyNorth Carolina0San Antonio Spurs
Hairston, PJNorth Carolina0Memphis Grizzlies
Hansbrough, TylerNorth Carolina0Charlotte Hornets
Holsey, KammeonGeorgia Tech0D-League
Horford, JonFlorida0D-League
Jones, DahntayDuke0Cleveland Cavaliers
Jones, TyusDuke0Minnesota Timberwolves
Kelly, RyanDuke0Los Angeles Lakers
Lawson, TyNorth Carolina0Indiana Pacers
Marshall, KendallNorth Carolina0Philadelphia 76ers
McAdoo, JamesNorth Carolina0Golden State Warriors
McRoberts, JoshDuke0Miami Heat
Miller, MikeFlorida0Denver Nuggets
Paige, MarcusNorth Carolina0Utah Jazz
Plumlee, MarshallDuke0New York Knicks
Rivers, AustinDuke0Los Angeles Clippers
Singler, KyleDuke0Oklahoma City Thunder
Stringer, AndreLSU0D-League
Thomas, LanceDuke0New York Knicks
Tokoto, J. P.North Carolina0D-League
Walker, ChrisFlorida0D-League
Walker, TyWake Forest0D-League
Williams, CoronWake Forest0D-League
Williams, L. D.Wake Forest0D-League
Winslow, JustiseDuke0Miami Heat
Wright, BrandanNorth Carolina0Memphis Grizzlies
PlayerWest - Pacific DivisionWinsLossesGB
Team RecordUCLA7480
Team RecordSouthern California5131-23
Team RecordStanford4537-29
Team RecordWashington4240-32
Team RecordCalifornia3052-44
Team RecordGonzaga2854-46
Westbrook, RussellUCLA22.8Oklahoma City Thunder
DeRozan, DeMarSouthern California15.5Toronto Raptors
Thomas, IsaiahWashington13.9Boston Celtics
Lopez, BrookStanford13.7Brooklyn Nets roster
Vučević, NikolaSouthern California10.7Orlando Magic
Love, KevinUCLA9.1Cleveland Cavaliers
Holiday, JrueUCLA8.0New Orleans Pelicans
Lopez, RobinStanford7.8Chicago Bulls
Anderson, RyanCalifornia5.8Houston Rockets
Collison, DarrenUCLA5.4Sacramento Kings
Brown, JaylenCalifornia4.0Boston Celtics
Chriss, MarqueseWashington4.0Phoenix Suns
Gibson, TajSouthern California4.0Chicago Bulls
Muhammad, ShabazzUCLA4.0Minnesota Timberwolves
Olynyk, KellyGonzaga4.0Boston Celtics
Sabonis, DomantasGonzaga4.0Oklahoma City Thunder
Powell, DwightStanford2.7Dallas Mavericks
Ross, TerrenceWashington2.1Toronto Raptors
LaVine, ZachUCLA1.9Minnesota Timberwolves
Ariza, TrevorUCLA1.8Houston Rockets
Brown, AnthonyStanford1Los Angeles Lakers
Gutiérrez, JorgeCalifornia1Charlotte Hornets
Hawes, SpencerWashington1Charlotte Hornets
Holiday, JustinWashington1New York Knicks
Huestis, JoshStanford1Oklahoma City Thunder
Mayo, O.J.Southern California1Free Agent
Sacre, RobertGonzaga1Los Angeles Lakers
Wallace, TyroneCalifornia1Utah Jazz
Young, NickSouthern California1Los Angeles Lakers
Crabbe, AllenUCLA0.9Free Agent
Anderson, KyleUCLA0.8San Antonio Spurs
Barnes, MattUCLA0.7Sacramento Kings
Murray, DejounteWashington0.5San Antonio Spurs
Pondexter, QuincyWashington0.5New Orleans Pelicans
Wilcox, C.Washington0.5Los Angeles Clippers
Adams, JordanUCLA0Memphis Grizzlies
Afflalo, ArronUCLA0Sacramento Kings
Childress, JoshStanford0D-League
Christopher, PatrickCalifornia0D-League
Davis, BaronUCLA0D-League
Drew, LarryUCLA0D-League
Farmar, JordanUCLA0Memphis Grizzlies
Kemp, ShawnWashington0D-League
Looney, KevonUCLA0Golden State Warriors
MbahUCLA0Los Angeles Clippers
Powell, NormanUCLA0Toronto Raptors
Stepheson, AlexSouthern California0D-League
Stockton, DavidGonzaga0D-League
Suggs, ScottWashington0D-League
Wesley, ByronGonzaga0D-League
Woolridge, RenaldoSouthern California0D-League
PlayerWest - Southwest DivisionWinsLossesGB
Team RecordKentucky8020
Team RecordLouisville3646-44
Team RecordMemphis3151-49
Team RecordTennessee2953-51
Team RecordVanderbilt2755-53
Team RecordArkansas2458-56
Towns, Karl-AnthonyKentucky15.7Minnesota Timberwolves
Cousins, DeMarcusKentucky14.6Sacramento Kings
Davis, AnthonyKentucky14.6New Orleans Pelicans
Wall, JohnKentucky12.2Washington Wizards
Rondo, RajonKentucky7.5Chicago Bulls
Dieng, GorguiLouisville7.3Minnesota Timberwolves
Harris, TobiasTennessee7.2Detroit Pistons
Barton, WillMemphis6.5Denver Nuggets
Lee, DamionLouisville4.8Miami Heat
Baldwin, WadeVanderbilt4.0Memphis Grizzlies
Onuaku, ChinanuLouisville3.7Houston Rockets
Ulis, TylerKentucky3.7Phoenix Suns
Murray, JamalKentucky2.8Denver Nuggets
Evans, TyrekeMemphis2.8New Orleans Pelicans
Ezeli, FestusVanderbilt2.7Portland Trail Blazers
Rose, DerrickMemphis2.6New York Knicks
Bledsoe, EricKentucky2.4Phoenix Suns
Noel, NerlensKentucky2.4Philadelphia 76ers
Beverley, PatrickArkansas2.1Houston Rockets
Johnson, JoeArkansas2Utah Jazz
Knight, BrandonKentucky1.8Phoenix Suns
Portis, BobbyArkansas1.3Chicago Bulls
Harrell, MontrezlLouisville1Houston Rockets
Jenkins, JohnVanderbilt1Phoenix Suns
Jones, DamianVanderbilt1Golden State Warriors
McRae, JordanTennessee1Cleveland Cavaliers
Richardson, JoshTennessee1Miami Heat
Rozier, TerryLouisville1Boston Celtics
Watson, C.Tennessee1Orlando Magic
Bogans, KeithKentucky0D-League
Booker, DevinKentucky0Phoenix Suns
Brewer, RonnieArkansas0D-League
Cauley-Stein, WillieKentucky0Sacramento Kings
Crawford, ChrisMemphis0D-League
Douglas-Roberts, ChrisMemphis0D-League
Goodwin, ArchieKentucky0Phoenix Suns
Harris, RamonKentucky0D-League
Harrison, AaronKentucky0Charlotte Hornets
Harrison, AndrewKentucky0D-League
Hayes, ChuckKentucky0Free Agent
Johnson, DakariKentucky0D-League
Jones, TerrenceKentucky0Houston Rockets
Kidd-Gilchrist, MichaelKentucky0Charlotte Hornets
Labissière, SkalKentucky0Sacramento Kings
Liggins, DeAndreKentucky0D-League
Lyles, TreyKentucky0Utah Jazz
Meeks, JodieKentucky0Orlando Magic
Mohammed, NazrKentucky0Oklahoma City Thunder
Pargo, JanneroArkansas0D-League
Patterson, PatrickKentucky0Toronto Raptors
Prince, TayshaunKentucky0Minnesota Timberwolves
Prince, TayshuaunKentucky0Free Agent
Randle, JuliusKentucky0Los Angeles Lakers
Siakam, JamesVanderbilt0D-League
Stephens, D. J.Memphis0D-League
Stokes, JarnellTennessee0D-League
Teague, MarquisKentucky0D-League
Wade, MardracusArkansas0D-League
Young, JamesKentucky0Boston Celtics
PlayerWest - Western DivisionWinsLossesGB
Team RecordTexas68140
Team RecordKansas4240-26
Team RecordArizona3943-29
Team RecordUNLV3052-38
Team RecordOklahoma State2458-44
Team RecordColorado2359-45
Durant, KevinTexas22.8Golden State Warriors
Aldridge, LaMarcusTexas12.3San Antonio Spurs
Wiggins, AndrewKansas8.6Minnesota Timberwolves
Thompson, TristanTexas6.0Cleveland Cavaliers
McCaw, PatrickUNLV5.9Golden State Warriors
Gordon, AaronArizona5.2Orlando Magic
Hill, JordanArizona4.4Indiana Pacers
Aldrich, ColeKansas4.3Minnesota Timberwolves
Williams, DerrickArizona4.1Miami Heat
Chalmers, MarioKansas3.3waived
Bradley, AveryTexas2.8Boston Celtics
McConnell, T.J.Arizona2.8Philadelphia 76ers
Turner, MylesTexas2.7Indiana Pacers
Withey, JeffKansas2.3Utah Jazz
Allen, TonyOklahoma State2Memphis Grizzlies
Morris, MarcusKansas1.8Detroit Pistons
Burks, AlecColorado1.5Utah Jazz
Iguodala, AndreArizona1.5Golden State Warriors
Amundson, LouUNLV1New York Knicks
Anderson, JamesOklahoma State1Sacramento Kings
Anthony, JoelUNLV1Detroit Pistons
Bennett, AnthonyUNLV1waived
Brown, MarkelOklahoma State1Brooklyn Nets roster
Copeland, ChrisColorado1Free Agent
Dinwiddie, SpencerColorado1Chicago Bulls
Roberson, AndréColorado1Oklahoma City Thunder
Smart, MarcusOklahoma State1Boston Celtics
Vaughn, RashadUNLV1Milwaukee Bucks
Augustin, D.J.Texas0.9Orlando Magic
Joseph, CoryTexas0.8Toronto Raptors
Robinson, ThomasKansas0.7Brooklyn Nets roster
Bayless, JerrydArizona0.6Philadelphia 76ers
Hollis-Jefferson, RondaeArizona0.6Brooklyn Nets roster
Arthur, DarrellKansas0.5Denver Nuggets
Black, TarikKansas0.5Los Angeles Lakers
Budinger, ChaseArizona0.5Phoenix Suns
Collison, NickKansas0.5Oklahoma City Thunder
Diallo, CheickKansas0.5New Orleans Pelicans
Frye, ChanningArizona0.5Cleveland Cavaliers
Hamilton, JordanTexas0.5Free Agent
Hill, SolomonArizona0.5New Orleans Pelicans
Tucker, P.Texas0.5Phoenix Suns
Wood, ChristianUNLV0.5Philadelphia 76ers
Zimmerman, StephenUNLV0.5Orlando Magic
Booker, AskiaColorado0D-League
Cobbins, MichaelOklahoma State0D-League
Embiid, JoelKansas0Philadelphia 76ers
Henry, XavierKansas0D-League
Hinrich, KirkKansas0Atlanta Hawks
Jefferson, RichardArizona0Cleveland Cavaliers
Johnson, NickArizona0D-League
Johnson, StanleyArizona0Detroit Pistons
Kabongo, MyckTexas0D-League
Kaun, SashaKansas0Cleveland Cavaliers
McLemore, BenKansas0Sacramento Kings
Morris, MarkieffKansas0Washington Wizards
OubreKansas0Washington Wizards
Parrom, KevinArizona0D-League
Pierce, PaulKansas0Los Angeles Clippers
Rush, BrandonKansas0Minnesota Timberwolves
Terry, JasonArizona0Houston Rockets

The Eastern Conference Playoffs would then set up as:

No. 8 Georgia Tech at No. 1 Duke
No. 7 UNC at No. 2 UConn
No. 6 Florida at No. 3 Marquette
No. 5 Michigan State at No. 4 Wake Forest

The Western Conference Playoffs would set up as:
NO. 8 Arizona at overall No. 1 Kentucky
No. 7 Kansas at No. 2 UCLA
No. 6 Washington at No. 3 Texas
No. 5 Stanford at No. 4 USC

Wednesday, July 6, 2016

NBA Value Tracker: Team-by-team list of the 148 NBA Players worth 4 additional wins or more

The additional wins a team can expect from drafting or trading for an impact player can be measured by referring to this chart. We follow only the 148 players who played at a level worth at least four additional wins to an NBA team over what a replacement player would have done, based on:


  1. Value Added ratings for players in the NBA last year, as listed here on ESPN.
  2. Value Add Basketball ratings minus 2 for players who played college basketball last year. The ratings at www.valueaddbasketball.com actually measure how many points a college player impacts his team's scores each 100 trips down the court, but the projection to their value at the next level is roughly projected in this way.
  3. The assumption that international picks were taken in roughly the correct position in the draft relative to the Value Add ratings of the college players selected near them in the draft.


This table does not rate players who were injured, or adjust for age (a 20 year old will likely improve the next year, while a 30 year old will likely decline).

The Boston Celtics, Golden State Warriors and Chicago Bulls are the three teams who have improved by at least 15 games based on these analytics, but of course the Warriors cannot really improve that much with Kevin Durant since they were already 73-9. Click here for on John Pudner's stories on Breitbart Sports for team breakdowns and other updates.

Player20162017Extra Wins
Paul MillsapATLATL13.0
DeAndre BembrySt. Joseph'sATL5.5
Taurean PrinceBaylorATL4.0
Brook LopezBKNBKN13.7
Isaiah ThomasBOSBOS13.9
Al HorfordATLBOS11.6
Jae CrowderBOSBOS6.1
Jared SullingerBOSBOS5.9
Ben BentilProvidenceBOS5.7
Amir JohnsonBOSBOS4.1
Ante ZizicCroatiaBOS4.0
Guerschon YabuseleFranceBOS4.0
Jaylen BrownCaliforniaBOS4.0
Kelly OlynykBOSBOS4.0
Isaiah WhiteheadSeton HallBRK4.3
Kemba WalkerCHACHA14.2
Marvin WilliamsCHACHA6.3
Nicolas BatumCHACHA6.3
Cody ZellerCHACHA4.9
Al JeffersonCHACHA4.2
Jimmy ButlerCHICHI13.3
Dwyane WadeMIACHI11.1
Robin LopezNYCHI7.8
Rajon RondoSACCHI7.5
Denzel ValentineMichigan St.CHI7.2
Taj GibsonCHICHI4.0
LeBron JamesCLECLE23.1
Kevin LoveCLECLE9.1
Kyrie IrvingCLECLE7.4
Kahlil FelderOaklandCLE7.1
Tristan ThompsonCLECLE6.0
Dirk NowitzkiDALDAL8.9
Zaza PachuliaDALDAL5.6
Chandler ParsonsDALDAL5.2
AJ HammonsPurdueDAL4.2
Nikola JokicDENDEN9.5
Kenneth FariedDENDEN8.1
Danilo GallinariDENDEN7.8
Will BartonDENDEN6.5
Jamal MurrayKentuckyDEN5.7
Juan HernangomezSpainDEN4.0
Andre DrummondDETDET14.2
Reggie JacksonDETDET10.4
Tobias HarrisDETDET7.2
Michael GbinijeSyracuseDET6.9
Aron BaynesDETDET4.4
Stephen CurryGSGS27.6
Draymond GreenGSGS10.9
Klay ThompsonGSGS10.8
Kevin DurantOKCGSW22.8
Patrick McCawUNLVGSW5.9
James HardenHOUHOU23.1
Dwight HowardHOUHOU9.5
Ryan AndersonNOHOU5.8
Clint CapelaHOUHOU5.0
Paul GeorgeINDIND14.7
Jeff TeagueATLIND7.8
Thaddeus YoungBKNIND7.3
Georges NiangIowa St.IND7.0
Monta EllisINDIND4.5
Jordan HillINDIND4.4
Chris PaulLACLAC18.4
DeAndre JordanLACLAC13.0
Brice JohnsonNorth CarolinaLAC7.9
JJ RedickLACLAC7.4
Blake GriffinLACLAC6.2
Cole AldrichLACLAC4.3
Louis WilliamsLALLAL6.9
Luol DengMIALAL5.4
Brandon IngramDukeLAL4.6
Jordan ClarksonLALLAL4.2
Mike ConleyMEMMEM7.4
Zach RandolphMEMMEM6.9
Marc GasolMEMMEM6.4
Wade BaldwinVanderbiltMEM4.0
Hassan WhitesideMIAMIA16.0
Chris BoshMIAMIA7.8
Goran DragicMIAMIA5.4
Greg MonroeMILMIL13.0
Giannis AntetokounmpoMILMIL11.7
Khris MiddletonMILMIL9.0
Malcolm BrogdonVirginiaMIL6.9
Thon MakerAustraliaMIL6.0
Jabari ParkerMILMIL4.0
Karl-Anthony TownsMINMIN15.7
Andrew WigginsMINMIN8.6
Ricky RubioMINMIN7.7
Gorgui DiengMINMIN7.3
Kris DunnProvidenceMIN4.8
Shabazz MuhammadMINMIN4.0
Anthony DavisNONO14.6
Buddy HieldOklahomaNO8.6
Jrue HolidayNONO8.0
Carmelo AnthonyNYNY12.4
Kristaps PorzingisNYNY6.4
Derrick WilliamsNYNY4.1
Russell WestbrookOKCOKC22.8
Enes KanterOKCOKC11.6
Victor OladipoORLOKC7.4
Steven AdamsOKCOKC4.9
Domantas SabonisGonzagaOKC4.0
Nikola VucevicORLORL10.7
Evan FournierORLORL5.4
Aaron GordonORLORL5.2
Ben SimmonsLSUPHI8.1
Jahlil OkaforPHIPHI5.2
Nerlens NoelPHIPHI4.7
Ish SmithPHIPHI4.4
Furkan KorkmazTurkeyPHI4.0
Timothe LuwawuFrancePHI4.0
Tyler UlisKentuckyPHX7.3
Dragan BenderCroatiaPHX7.0
Eric BledsoePHXPHX4.8
Marquese ChrissWashingtonPHX4.0
Mirza TeletovicPHXPHX4.0
Damian LillardPORPOR15.0
C.J. McCollumPORPOR10.1
Mason PlumleePORPOR6.9
Ed DavisPORPOR6.8
Kobe BryantLALRet4.1
Kawhi LeonardSASA18.5
LaMarcus AldridgeSASA12.3
Tony ParkerSASA5.1
Tim DuncanSASA4.9
Boban MarjanovicSASA4.3
David WestSASA4.3
Manu GinobiliSASA4.2
DeMarcus CousinsSACSAC14.6
Rudy GaySACSAC5.9
Darren CollisonSACSAC5.4
Georgios PapagiannisGreeceSAC4.0
Pau GasolCHISAS12.7
Kyle LowryTORTOR15.9
DeMar DeRozanTORTOR15.5
Jonas ValanciunasTORTOR9.3
Pascal SiakamNew Mexico St.TOR7.0
Jakob PoeltlUtahTOR6.8
Gordon HaywardUTAHUTAH11.3
Derrick FavorsUTAHUTAH10.1
Rudy GobertUTAHUTAH6.6
Joel BolomboyWeber St.UTAH5.2
Rodney HoodUTAHUTAH4.6
Ian MahinmiINDWAS5.5
John WallWSHWSH12.2
Marcin GortatWSHWSH9.5
Otto Porter Jr.WSHWSH4.5
Bradley BealWSHWSH4.3
Ramon SessionsWSHWSH4.1

Saturday, April 2, 2016

Villanova's Four Top 200 Players - Best in US - Set Record and Make Big East Case

Prior to the Big East, Villanova needed to upset Kansas and beat an Oklahoma team that destroyed them earlier in the year to let the Big East finish with a better case than the Big 12 as the No 2 conference this year. Well, a record 44-point margin of victory by Nova over Oklahoma settles that case and leaves the final tournament records prior to the National Title game as:

ACC 18-5
Big East 8-4
Big 12 8-7

All other conferences with at least two teams invited had a losing record or .500 mark, though a shout out to the West Coast conference for not getting a second bid but looking great in the NIT and having Gonzaga go 2-1 and almost beat Syracuse.

Villanova was the only team at Value Add Basketball with four top four players in the top 200 and the ability to spread the court was unstoppable as they shot over 70% Saturday - the only team besides the 1985 Villanova squad to top that mark.