W. KY Sets Record with 53-23 Rebound Edge; Survives 11 Buffalo 3-pointers

After Western Kentucky set a Value Add Basketball Game record with a 53-23 rebounding edge, I first wondered if a team whose tallest player was 6'6" could possibly have these incredible rebounding cards. Four of their five starters grabbed a rebound on all six die numbers (Off/Def Rebound: 1-6/1-6 or 1/7/1-7) and the subs hardly played. Could that be correct? I wondered. (the game preview is here)

I pulled up the 1966 season and they averaged ... and incredible 54 rebounds a game and routinely won the rebounding battle by a dozen. Their five starters averaged more rebounds than all players on the opposing team combined. Buffalo 2019 was not even a top 100 team on the defensive glass in www.kenpom.com and the combo was deadly as the Hilltoppers routinely took two, three or even four shots on a trip.

While none of the starters were taller than 6'6", all but one were at least 6'5" - and the one was future NBA great Clem Haskins at a very big 6'3" as he would go 3rd in the NBA draft. In the controversial foul call on Greg Smith on a jump ball that eliminated the from the NCAA tournament against Michigan in 1966, this video shows Smith out jumping all-time great Cazzie Russell by at least a foot at the 8:45 mark of the video. 

And yet, after a series of blowouts in our tournament, this one came down to the wire because CJ Massinburg led a 3-point barrage with four of Buffalo's 11 three-pointers. He got the ball for one last shot at the buzzer, but missed it and Greg Smith grabbed his 15th rebound of the game to seal the 84-82 win.

Western Kentucky improved from 115th place (we originally incorrectly reported them lower due to an error on the cards) up to 89th of the 200 great teams in our game. Buffalo dropped from 135th to 150th. The only two teams we have yet to play will be in our final "debut" game with Drake 1969 (ranked 99th) vs. Nevada 2004 (ranked 138th). All rankings and game results are recorded on this google sheet.

You can also use this template to create your own game box scores easily after recording results on the Value Add Basketball Game scorehseet.

Pos	Western Kentucky	Pts	3pt	2pt	FT	Att	Reb	Stl	Blk	Fl	Season Actual	Hts
1-PG	Dwight Smith	20	1	7	3	5	5	1	0	2	16.1 Pts, 9.9 Reb	6'5
2-SG	Clem Haskins	22	2	6	4	4	7	3	0	2	20.4 Pts, 10.0 Reb,nba	6'3
3-SF	Wayne Chapman	5	1	1	0	0	9	0	0	5	13.3 Pts, 4.3 Reb,nba	6'6
4-PF	Greg Smith	6	0	2	2	2	15	0	1	1	9.5 Pts, 10.3 Reb,nba	6'5
5-C	Steve Cunningham	23	0	9	5	6	10	0	1	1	15.1 Pts, 7.4 Reb	6'5
1-PG	Mike Fawcett	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	2.1 Pts, 0.6 Reb	5'10
2-SG	Butch Kaufman	2	0	1	0	0	3	0	1	2	4.0 Pts, 1.0 Reb	5'10
3-SF	Norm Weaver	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	2.9 Pts, 1.7 Reb	6'5
4-PF	Pearl Hicks	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	2.3 Pts, 3.0 Reb	6'7
5-C	Jack Butler	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	1.8 Pts, 1.8 Reb	6'5
	10 Turnovers	84	4	29	14	17	53	4	3	17
Pos	Buffalo	Pts	3pt	2pt	FT	Att	Reb	Stl	Blk	Fl	Season Actual	Hts
1-PG	Davonta Jordan	8	1	2	1	1	2	2	1	3	7.4 Pts, 3.2 Reb, 3.6 Ast	6'2
2-SG	Jayvon Graves	12	2	2	2	2	1	1	0	1	9.7 Pts, 4.2 Reb, 1.9 Ast	6'3
3-SF	CJ Massinburg	19	4	2	3	6	5	0	0	1	18.2 Pts, 6.5 Reb, 3.0 Ast	6'3
4-PF	Jeremy Harris	11	1	3	2	2	7	0	1	2	14.0 Pts, 6.2 Reb, 3.0 Ast	6'7
5-C	Nick Perkins	19	2	6	1	4	2	0	1	1	14.7 Pts, 7.4 Reb, 0.7 Ast	6'8
1-PG	Dontay Caruthers	2	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	1	8.6 Pts, 3.4 Reb, 2.8 Ast	6'1
2-SG	Ronaldo Segu	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	2.1 Pts, 0.9 Reb, 1.0 Ast	6'0
3-SF	Jeenathan Williams	4	0	2	0	0	1	0	0	1	3.2 Pts, 1.7 Reb, 0.2 Ast-NBA	6'5
4-PF	Tra'Von Fagan	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	1.3 Pts, 1.2 Reb, 0.2 Ast	6'8
5-C	Montell McRae	5	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	2	5.6 Pts, 3.4 Reb, 0.5 Ast	6'10
	9 Turnovers	82	11	20	9	15	23	3	3	14

Here is what the template looks like at the beginning of a Value Add Basketball Game.

Here is the bracket of the tournament of the last 16 teams we added. You may notice it is all scratch, which is definitely not always the case in the almost 250 games we've played between all-time great teams since inventing the game five years ago.

 

Seed	Great Team	Score	Card Rnk	Rnk After Gm
1	Massachusetts - 1996	80	53	84
16	Liberty - 2023	78	196	189
8	Charlotte - 1977	95	117	38
9	New Mexico - 1974	68	133	193
4	Temple - 1958	72	70	33
13	Bradley - 1954	60	179	180
5	New Mexico St. - 1970	77	84	29
12	Richmond - 2011	54	190	198
3	Tulsa - 2000 (fixed lineup)	92	63	33
14	Washington St. - 2008	64	185	196
6	Drake - 1969		98
11	Nevada - 2004		138
2	Oregon St. - 1982	81	49	42
15	James Madison - 2024	68	193	191
10	Buffalo - 2019	82	149	135
7	Western Kentucky - 1966 (fixed cards, rating)	84	115	89

Next Round:

We believe UMass 1996 is better than Charlotte 1977 (based on the cards ranked 53rd to 117th), but in our fun www.kenpom.com-like ratings Charlotte surged ahead of UMass with the Cornbread Maxwell's destruction of New Mexico.

We believe Temple and New Mexico State are virtually equal, though New Mexico State was a little more impressive in their first game.

The winner of those two will face each other next.

We believe Tulsa is a good bit better then whoever wins the Drake vs. Nevada game.

We believe Oregon State is better than Western Kentucky.

The winner of those two last games will face each other in the other semi,but first we need to play Drake vs. Nevada- the last two teams of our 200 all-time greats to play a game.

Upgrading Clem Haskins & (cheated?) 1966 Western Kentucky for Game vs. Buffalo

Before explaining why we had to upgrade some 1966 Western Kentucky player cards, take a look at the 8:45 mark of this video of one of the most controversial calls in basketball history that cost them a win against Michigan in the NCAA tournament. Despite no player more than 6-foot-5, Greg Smith won a jump ball with seconds remaining that might have sealed a 79-78 win, but he was called for a foul while jumping for the jump ball.

A great quote from Jay Bilas' incredible ESPN College Basketball Encyclopedia regarding the team we had to upgrade on closer consideration:

"Many old-timers believe that WKU's loss to Michigan on March 11, 1966 in the NCAA Mideast Regional semifinal came as a result of the worst call in basketball history. Ahead 79-78 with a few seconds left, WKU forced a jump ball. After winning the tip, Hilltopper Greg Smith was called for a foul - and Mcihgan's Cazzie Russell dropped the two winning free throws."

We have played all but four of our 200 great all-time teams in the Value Add Basketball Game - and are partly trying to play each team at least once to take one more look at the cards to catch anything as simple as having set up the wrong player rotation (Tulsa 2000) to severely underrating a team (today's topic, Western Kentucky 1966).

Before tipping off against the Buffalo team built by Bobby Hurley and then Nate Oats, we discovered several numbers that were off for the Hilltoppers.

1. Clem Haskins, Wayne Chapman and Steve Cunningham are upgraded to the top Stamina, 44, to play all possessions in a game. In eras before minutes were tracked, we default to starters playing 37 possessions and reserves 7 possessions. However, in looking at team box scores from the tournament, it was pretty clear the three stars who were drafted professionally were playing almost the whole game.

2. Likewise, with not steals or blocked shots kept in the 1960s, we default to a point guard being 11-15 on steals and 21-22 on blocks, then shift each number one by position until we get to the center who is a 11-11 steal and 21-25 blocked shots. However, we do look ahead to NBA careers where stats were kept and made two other upgrades:

a. Haskins' steals are upgraded to the best steal range, 11-16 and to steal from anyone on the court on a 31. The NBA didn't start keeping steals as a stat until Haskins was in his 30s, and yet he continued to get steals every year in his 30s, so pretty sure he was elite when he was 10 years younger.

b. Wayne Chapman's 3-point made range is upgraded to 1-3. Chapman actually went to the ABA where they were already using the 3-point shot, and he hit some every year, so pretty sure he would have hit some from a much closer college 3-point line.

Finally Western Kentucky's rating is actually a -2 rather than a -12, the total of their Off 111 minute Def 96 minus 17 (the average great team is about 17 points better than the average team in a given season).

Mid American Team and Return of Value Add Basketball Rankings

All-Mid American Conf	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Xavier Castaneda	Akron	9.94	121.9	103.4	22-11 (PG), Poss 29.4%
JT Shumate	Toledo	8.13	134.9	110.6	27-8, Poss 21.1%
Dwight Wilson	Ohio	7.92	125.5	107.4	19-14, Poss 27.2%
Cli'ron Hornbeak	Kent St.	7.50	125.9	96.5	13-seed, 28-7, Poss 15.3%
RayJ Dennis	Toledo	6.97	119.2	110.6	27-8 (PG), Poss 28.7%
2nd T-Mid American Conf	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Enrique Freeman	Akron	6.90	118	103.4	22-11, Poss 26.7%
Jaylin Hunter	Ohio	6.48	115.9	107.4	19-14 (PG), Poss 23.3%
Demarius Jacobs	Ball St.	5.78	123.7	107.8	20-12, Poss 17.5%
Harvin Ibarguen	No Illinois	5.26	125.3	107.1	13-19, Poss 12.4%
Mekhi Lairy	Miami OH	5.19	114.7	111.9	12-20 (PG), Poss 24.7%
HM-Mid American Conf	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Dante Maddox	Toledo	4.91	122.2	110.6	27-8, Poss 16.5%
AJ Brown	Ohio	4.87	116	107.4	19-14, Poss 21.7%
Setric Millner	Toledo	4.63	118.2	110.6	27-8, Poss 21.4%

Above is a very late All-Mid American team from the 2022-23 season, and we will be updating these and the top 300 players at www.valueaddbasketball.com to go along with the rankings going back to the 2001-02 season. While this system received rave reviews from Sports Illustrated, ESPN, Fox Sports and many others, last season we skipped because we lost the ability to rank all 4000 players who take the court for D1 action.

Note below that Xavier Castaneda not only ranks as All-Mid-American but as an All-American, though he is now finished his career.

The MAC seems like among the most stable of conferences as the back-up choice in the Big Ten conference. Kent State seems the best prospect to give the conference a chance to win a game in March Madness in the past decade of Bobby Hurley and Nate Oates did it with Buffalo and then Ohio repeated. After playing Indiana reasonably well in last year's tournament, Kent State already made great rallies in a double overtime loss to James Madison and a narrow defensive loss to Missouri State.

With 6-foot-9 Cli'Ron Hornbeak back as one of the best shot blockers and rebounders in the game who also hit 72% of his shots, but he is foul prone so a key may be just keeping him on the court. Against Missouri State he did block four shots, grab seven rebounds and hit 5 of 8 from the floor - probably the kind of night they would need from him to win the conference tournament and possibly pull and upset in the NCAA.

Team	2023	2024	2025	Seed23	Rnk24
Akron	MAC	MAC	MAC		117
Ball St.	MAC	MAC	MAC		242
Bowling Green	MAC	MAC	MAC		244
Buffalo	MAC	MAC	MAC		332
Central Michigan	MAC	MAC	MAC		304
Eastern Michigan	MAC	MAC	MAC		306
Kent St.	MAC	MAC	MAC	13	99
Miami OH	MAC	MAC	MAC		248
Northern Illinois	MAC	MAC	MAC		182
Ohio	MAC	MAC	MAC		115
Toledo	MAC	MAC	MAC		112
Western Michigan	MAC	MAC	MAC		299

Better late than never - this is one of 32 lists of All-Conference teams based on the "resurrected" Value Add Basketball rankings at www.valueaddbasketball.com. The other 31 releases of Conference teams will all include this same explanation for the rest of the blog, including the 10 returning All-Americans and top 60 players from last season listed further down.

This paragraph is of interest to stat nerds only. The offensive ratings were easier to recreate, since the basis was to pull hundreds of players ranked as the most efficient last season (AdjO at www.kenpom.com) and adjusting their figures for their percent of possessions. A player who can produce about 1.2 points per time he has the ball who also gets the ball 25% of the time against tough competition and as part of a strong defense can be All-American level, but a player who doesn't get the ball nearly as often but produces even more at 1.3 points per possession can still be All-Conference even if fans feel other players handling and shooting the ball more are better due to higher points scored per game.

The new simplified system weighs their ability to produce points against the Adjusted Defense (AdjD) - that is how many points per 100 trips would their team allow against an average D1 team. This accounts both for defense and for level of competition. We also note if a player is a Point Guard, the most important position on the court.

The resulting "Value" listed in the third column is the Value Add of points the player would improve an average team over if he could not play if a decent replacement took his place. Zach Edey was by far the most valuable player in the country last year at 13.17 meaning typically he would turn a 65-70 loss for a team into a 72-64 win - a 13 point swing. The notes off to the first indicated the team's record, their seed if they made the tournament, and then if they went to the NBA in the 2023 draft or are projected to go in the 2024 or 2025 draft.

1st and 2nd Team Returning All-Americans; and Top 60 Players from Last Season

 

The table below is the list of the 30 most valuable players in college basketball for the 2022-23 season according to our simplified www.valueaddbasketball.com rankings. Obviously most of these top players finished their eligibility or went pro so are no longer playing. However, if we made this our All-American teams of returning players including transfers at their new school the headline would be from Creighton.

1st Team Returning All-Americans - Value Add Basketball calculates that Creighton now has two of the three most valuable players in 2022-23 in returning Ryan Kalkbrenner and Utah State transfer Steven Ashworth. Ironically, Thursday it was Colorado State that handed Creighton its first loss - a team that Ashworth had dominated four of seven times in conference games at Utah State. The other 1st Team All-Americans based on last year's Value Add would be J'Wan Roberts returning for Houston, and then Tylor Perry who transferred from North Texas to Kansas State.

Most Valuable Player for 2nd Year. However, the far and away Most Valuable Player in the Country could challenge Anthony Davis, Jon Scheyer and Zion Williamson for as the most Valuable college player of the century in the All-Time Value Add Basketball Rankings - Zach Edey who was almost 2 points better than anyone in the country last year at Purdue and has them at No. 1 this season.

2nd Team Returning All-Americans - The 6th most valuable returning player according to Value Add is Marquette Point Guard Tyler Kolek. He would be joined on a second team All-American squad of returning players by Tennessee's Santiago Vescovi, Texas transfer from Oral Roberts Max Abmas, Duke's Ryan Young, Arizona's Azuolas Tubelis and finally Cam Spencer, who transferred from Rutgers to UConn.

In all, 18 of the top 30 players finished their college careers, leaving those 10 returning All-Americans and then two other players - JaKobe Coles of TCU and USC's Boogie Ellis.
 

All-American 1st Team	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Zach Edey	Purdue	13.17	125.9	94.5	1-seed, 29-6, nba 58 in 2024
Adama Sanogo (gone)	Connecticut	11.37	122.6	90.9	4-seed, 31-8, Poss 26.4%
Marcus Sasser (gone)	Houston	11.25	123.4	90.4	1-seed, 33-4, nba 25 in 2023
Ryan Kalkbrenner	Creighton	10.80	133.4	93.2	6-seed, 24-13, Poss 19.4%
Steven Ashworth (Creigh)	Utah St.	10.72	127.7	98.9	10-seed, 26-9 (PG), Poss 21.6%
All-American 2nd Team	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Tylor Perry (K-State)	North Texas	10.37	124.3	94.1	31-7, Poss 24.4%
Brandon Miller (gone)	Alabama	10.23	117.0	88.2	1-seed, 31-6, nba 2 in 2023
Xavier Castaneda (gone)	Akron	9.94	121.9	103.4	22-11 (PG), Poss 29.4%
J'Wan Roberts	Houston	9.90	127.9	90.4	1-seed, 33-4, Poss 18.4%
Jordan Hawkins (gone)	Connecticut	9.88	121.2	90.9	4-seed, 31-8, nba 14 in 2023
All-American 3rd Team	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Jaime Jaquez (gone)	UCLA	9.80	113.1	88	2-seed, 31-6, nba 18 in 2023
Jalen Pickett (gone)	Penn St.	9.66	118.7	101.1	10-seed, 23-14 (PG), nba 32 in 2023
Jordan Walker (gone)	UAB	9.64	114.7	97.9	29-10 (PG), Poss 30.6%
Tyler Kolek	Marquette	9.63	118	96.7	2-seed, 29-7 (PG), Poss 24.1%
Santiago Vescovi	Tennessee	9.52	114.2	87.5	4-seed, 25-11 (PG), Poss 18.8%
All-American 4th Team	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Max Abmas (Texas)	Oral Roberts	9.47	120.2	102.2	12-seed, 30-5 (PG), Poss 27.6%
Trayce Jackson-Davis (g)	Indiana	9.45	118.5	97.2	4-seed, 23-12, nba 57 in 2023
Ryan Young	Duke	9.37	128.7	93.9	5-seed, 27-9, Poss 18.3%
Kendric Davis (grad)	Memphis	9.24	111.1	96.1	8-seed, 26-9 (PG), Poss 31.6%
Drew Timme (grad)	Gonzaga	9.21	119.6	99.3	3-seed, 31-6, Poss 30.6%
All-American 5th Team	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Markquis Nowell (gone)	Kansas St.	8.92	111	95	3-seed, 26-10 (PG), Poss 27.6%
Souley Boum (gone)	Xavier	8.87	119.2	98.6	3-seed, 27-10 (PG), Poss 21.2%
Oscar Tshiebwe (gone)	Kentucky	8.83	122.6	98.8	6-seed, 22-12, Poss 24.5%
Terence Lewis (gone)	Louisiana	8.74	131.2	102.9	13-seed, 26-8, Poss 20.3%
Darius McGhee (gone)	Liberty	8.68	114.5	97.5	27-9, Poss 33.4%
All-American 6th Team	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Azuolas Tubelis	Arizona	8.68	116.1	96.3	2-seed, 28-7, Poss 28.7%
Cam Spencer (UConn)	Rutgers	8.66	119.4	90.8	19-15, Poss 19.8%
Sir'Jabari Rice (gone)	Texas	8.66	116.3	92.1	2-seed, 29-9, Poss 23.4%
JaKobe Coles	TCU	8.64	118.4	94.3	6-seed, 22-13, Poss 23.4%
Boogie Ellis	USC	8.56	113.3	97.5	10-seed, 22-11 (PG), Poss 25.7%