Tuesday, September 11, 2018

Sept 30 Update: Democrat 215, GOP 214 if adding Sabato & NY Times Live Polls; 3 Other Indicators Suggest Strong Democratic Takeover

Oct 2 Note - note on the table below, but NC9, which both Sabato and Nate Silver have as Democrat due to a conservative pastor beating a GOP incumbent, is a +10 GOP through 181 calls. If GOP holds this one it would put my count at 215-215, and it also seems to follow the thread of conservative areas moving to GOP post Kavanaugh (ND and MZ in Senate races).

Start full up update here:
Of the four indicators I review suggest a blue wave taking the House - and the Senate is not impossible. However, first I will cover the one indicators that suggest the Republicans could hold the House:

Sept. 30 update - If you add Larry Sabato's 206-200 Democrat edge and then use the NY Times live polling for his toss-up races,
good news for GOP as NJ7 and CA25 shift to +3 GOP to push them to 220-215 projection. Iowa 1 poll showing big Democrat - but that race already in 206 already counted by Sabato as Democratic.

Based onRepublicanDemocratTie/Toss=up
NY Times1481

StateCDGOP leadNum. ratingBased on
CA252RepublicanNY Times Poll
CA45-5DemocratNY Times Poll
CA480Toss-up/tieNY Times Poll
IA3-1DemocratNY Times Poll
IL61RepublicanNY Times Poll
IL121RepublicanNY Times Poll
KS2-1DemocratNY Times Poll
KS3-8DemocratNY Times Poll
KY61RepublicanNY Times Poll
ME25RepublicanNY Times Poll
MI81Republicanincomplete NYT
MN2-12Democratincomplete NYT
MN8-1DemocratNY Times Poll
NC96Republicanincomplete NYT
NJ3-10DemocratNY Times Poll
NJ71RepublicanNY Times Poll
NM2-1DemocratNY Times Poll
OH19RepublicanNY Times Poll
TX73RepublicanNY Times Poll
TX238RepublicanNY Times Poll
VA28RepublicanNY Times Poll
VA74RepublicanNY Times Poll
WV38RepublicanNY Times Poll
1) Scoreboard (updated 9/30/2018, 11 p.m.) - Live NY Times polling of House seats rated as a TOSS-UP by Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball shows Republicans going 14-9. When you add those to the races where Sabato gives an edge to the Democrats (206-200) you end up with the Democrats getting 215 seats to 214 for the Republicans in the quest for 218 and control. That leaves six Sabato toss-ups that have either not been polled by the NY Times or are tied.

One interesting note is that three toss-up races that were already in progress before the Kavanaugh and Ford testimonies shifted Republican after the testimonies. Arizona 2 was at a -12 (Democrat lead by 12) and just shifted 1 point to -11, but Ohio 1 went from a 3 to 12 point GOP lead and Virginia 2 went from a 1 to 9 point GOP lead. Not a big sample size and this could be because they started reaching more Republican regions of the districts in question, but an average 6 point shift toward Republicans with other polls showing Republicans potentially being helped or at least staying even in Senate races would seem to at least hurt the narrative that this hurt the GOP.

DistrictGOP - DemocratStatus
Arizona 2-11from -12 to -11
California 252
California 45-3
California 480
Colorado 6-11
Illinois 121
Illinois 61
Iowa 33
Kansas 2-1
Kansas 3-8
Kentucky 61
Maine 25
Michigan 82new and incomplete
Minnesota 2-15new and incomplete
Minnesota 3-9
Minnesota 8-1
New Jersey 3-10
New Jersey 71
Ohio 112from 3 to 12
Texas 238
Texas 73
Virginia 29moved from 1 to 9
Virginia 74
West Virginia 38
Average-0.4GOP average lead in Sabato toss-ups


NY Times has three other polls running now that are not in the average above because they aren't sabato toss-ups - they are in the 206-200 Democratic lead already in Sabatos rankings. For example, their email updated tonight showed the big Democratic lead in Iowa 1 - but that and California 49 area already counted in Sabato's 206 Democratic, just as we don't count NY Times polls showing Republicans ahead in Florida 26, Wisconsin 1 and Texas 32 because Sabato already has it in his 200 GOP. The one counter example from the non toss-ups is Iowa 2 where Sabato has a lean GOP but the NY Times gave the Democrat a 1-point lead.

The other three indicators point to a strong win for the Democrats:

2. History: Larry Sabato points out that the average number of House seats lost two years after a party wins the White House is 33 seats - 10 more than the Democrats need to take over the House.

3. Enthusiasm Indicated by Primary Turnout: Many more Democrats are turning out than Republicans in primaries. For example, many Trump supporters noted Minnesota was another primary victory over a Trump opponent with Jeff Johnson's win with 168,495 votes, however, that's only enough votes to finish third in the Democratic primary the same day where 81% more Democrats voted than Republicans (582,811 to 320,252). The silver lining Republican hopes offset this gap is that Trump rallies do have a strong turnout, and while 38% more Democrats voted in the primary in Minnesota 8, Stauber did receive 44,865 in the GOP primary while Radinovich received 30,440 in the Democratic primary.

4. Nate Silver's generic ballot shows Democrats with a 9.1 percent advantage. If that ballot ends up between 6 and 10 points it would point toward Democrats winning the House and Republicans holding the Senate, so as of September 16 at 8 p.m. eastern that would indicate Democrats taking the House fairly easily and even having a shot at the Senate.

Further background written before we started to tally above

The New York Times takes election analytics to another level again. Their election night percent chance of winning is unbelievably great and exciting as you can see the percent chance for each
candidate adjust slightly as new results come in during the night.

(Note: Before anyone who told me Trump was going to "Win by 5 points or more because
no one is telling the pollsters the truth" dismisses the polls - I will remind you that statement
was 7 points off and the Real Clear average of head-to-head polling was just over a point
off and MY September 9, 2016 mass emailed prediction was almost exactly right - Clinton
by 3 in the popular vote, Trump over 290 in Electoral College to win.)

Here are the only two steps you need to follow to have an incredible understanding on which
way Congress is moving:

1. Look at Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball. As of 10:30 p.m. Eastern on September 11, He
has 29 Congressional races as toss-ups and when you add up the ones he has leading
Democrat or Republican - the Democrats would need to win 12 of 29 toss-ups to take
the House 218-217.

2. Go to the toss-up races the New York Times is incredibly LIVE polling - meaning they
show you the results every time they call a voter and when a voter answers their poll and
based on the voter's geography, age, gender, race etc. they update where the race should
end up. Right now they are polling three races Sabato rate’s as toss-ups, SO since the
Democrats need to win almost half of those races if the three races were even overall it
would mean the Democrats are likely to win the House (because even would tend toward
them getting 14 or 15 of the 29 races) whereas if the GOP averages even a slight lead of
a point or two, then it is likely they could get the 19 of 29 toss-up seats they need.

This is only three races, and the polls are not complete, BUT the first data points to the
GOP holding the House (which is not the same conclusion I’d reach looking only at the
generic ballot where the Democrats have a bigger edge than the +6 the Republicans
could probably withstand to still hold the House.

(original note before adding other three)The Republicans are winning all three toss-up races - by 3, 8 and 8 points, and they
are three different kinds of districts (suburban and rural mix in Richmond VA, Majority
Hispanic district in Texas and strong Trump in West Virginia). An average 6+ point win
for the GOP in three districts that look like toss-ups is good news for Republicans -
but these are early returns and if you keep clicking on these links they will keep updating
whenever they are calling.


If I were just looking at Nate Silver's generic ballot, I would draw the opposite conclusion out of the belief that the Democrats +8.6 is about two points better than they need to take the House, so the two tests lend to opposite conclusions and we should keep watching each of those New York Times polls continue to play out as well as new swing district polls they will add.

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