March Madness Teams with Most NBA Talent

The toughest factor in choosing March Madness brackets may be how much to weigh NBA talent. On the one hand, a team like Kentucky located with NBA talent can click in at the end of the season and challenge for the title despite a lower www.kenpom.com rating. On the other hand, seniors are generally better college players than freshmen, and sometimes NBA talent can be looking ahead to the draft and lose one of their first two games.

First, we provide the bracket you would fill out if you wanted to pick the team with the most potential future NBA talent.  The number indicates who many lines you would put the team on in your bracket. A ".5" indicates it was a very close call. The biggest difference from this and most other bracket options is that Virginia will be favored over Kentucky or Arizona in the second round UNLESS you went by NBA talent. Both Arizona and Kentucky are loaded with NBA talent and Arizona is a 1.5 because it is a very close call to have them lose to Kentucky, but if they did then they would have a lot more NBA talent than Virginia (see the actual possible NBA players we are talking about at the bottom of the blog).

Region	Seed	Bracket	NBA
South	1	Virginia	2
South	16	UMBC
South	8	Creighton	1
South	9	Kansas St.
South	5	Kentucky	5
South	12	Davidson
South	4	Arizona	1.5
South	13	Buffalo
South	6	Miami FL	2.5
South	11	Loyola Chicago
South	3	Tennessee	1
South	14	Wright St.
South	7	Nevada
South	10	Texas	3
South	2	Cincinnati	1
South	15	Georgia St.
West	1	Xavier	1
West	16	North Carolina Central
West	16	Texas Southern
West	8	Missouri	2.5
West	9	Florida St.
West	5	Ohio St.
West	12	San Diego St.	1
West	4	Gonzaga	4
West	13	UNC Greensboro
West	6	Houston	1
West	11	South Dakota St.
West	3	Michigan	2
West	14	Montana
West	7	Texas A&M	1
West	10	Providence
West	2	North Carolina	3
West	15	Lipscomb
East	1	Villanova	4
East	16	LIU Brooklyn
East	16	Radford
East	8	Virginia Tech
East	9	Alabama	1.5
East	5	West Virginia	1
East	12	Murray St.
East	4	Wichita St.	2
East	13	Marshall
East	6	Florida	3
East	11	St. Bonaventure
East	11	UCLA
East	3	Texas Tech	1.5
East	14	Stephen F. Austin
East	7	Arkansas	1
East	10	Butler
East	2	Purdue	2.5
East	15	Cal St. Fullerton
Midwest	1	Kansas	3
Midwest	16	Penn
Midwest	8	Seton Hall
Midwest	9	North Carolina St.	1.5
Midwest	5	Clemson	1.5
Midwest	12	New Mexico St.
Midwest	4	Auburn	2
Midwest	13	College of Charleston
Midwest	6	TCU
Midwest	11	Arizona St.
Midwest	11	Syracuse	1.5
Midwest	3	Michigan St.	2
Midwest	14	Bucknell
Midwest	7	Rhode Island
Midwest	10	Oklahoma	1
Midwest	2	Duke	6
Midwest	15	Iona

With all that being said, if you want to go with the most NBA talent then your top teams are; 1) Duke, 2) Kentucky and 3) Arizona. To compile these ratings we give 10 to 7 points for a potential 1st round NBA draft pick - led by DeAndre Ayton with a 10.0. A total of 251 current players have at least a small chance to make the NBA, so they can get prospect ratings as low a a couple of points. All the players are listed at the bottom of this post.

Most teams (251 of 351) do not have any NBA prospects, and 33 of the teams still alive for a March Madness appearance listed next had no NBA prospects.

Team	NBA talent	NBA rank
Alabama	24.8	15
Arizona	44.5	3
Arizona St.	7.0	59
Arkansas	8.4	53
Arkansas Pine Bluff	0.0	999
Auburn	8.5	51
Baylor	13.2	32
Boise St.	6.7	64
Bucknell	0.0	999
Buffalo	0.0	999
Butler	5.8	77
Cal St. Fullerton	0.0	999
Cincinnati	18.3	21
Clemson	7.8	57
College of Charleston	0.0	999
Creighton	13.6	29
Davidson	1.7	103
Duke	55.1	1
Eastern Washington	0.0	999
Florida	16.5	24
Florida St.	11.4	38
Georgia Southern	0.0	999
Georgia St.	0.0	999
Gonzaga	30.6	8
Grand Canyon	0.0	999
Harvard	0.0	999
Houston	0.0	999
Iona	0.0	999
Kansas	32.0	6
Kansas St.	6.4	67
Kentucky	52.2	2
Lipscomb	0.0	999
LIU Brooklyn	0.0	999
Louisville	30.8	7
Loyola Chicago	0.0	999
Marquette	0.0	999
Marshall	5.3	81
Maryland	24.9	14
Miami FL	25.9	13
Michigan	13.4	30
Michigan St.	18.6	19
Middle Tennessee	0.0	999
Missouri	26.0	12
Montana	0.0	999
Murray St.	0.0	999
Nebraska	0.0	999
Nevada	17.0	23
New Mexico	6.6	66
New Mexico St.	3.5	91
North Carolina	20.3	17
North Carolina Central	0.0	999
North Carolina St.	23.5	16
Notre Dame	8.1	55
Ohio St.	5.1	82
Oklahoma	13.8	28
Oklahoma St.	13.1	33
Penn	0.0	999
Penn St.	6.9	60
Providence	6.3	69
Purdue	14.1	25
Radford	0.0	999
Rhode Island	9.6	45
Saint Mary's	4.5	87
San Diego St.	8.7	49
Seton Hall	4.6	84
South Dakota St.	0.0	999
Southeastern Louisiana	0.0	999
St. Bonaventure	9.6	44
Stephen F. Austin	0.0	999
Syracuse	13.8	27
TCU	6.7	65
Tennessee	0.0	999
Texas	28.4	10
Texas A&M	18.6	18
Texas Southern	4.7	83
Texas Tech	12.1	37
Toledo	0.0	999
UC Irvine	0.0	999
UCLA	28.8	9
UMBC	0.0	999
UNC Greensboro	0.0	999
USC	33.0	5
UT Arlington	6.7	63
Villanova	28.1	11
Virginia	12.2	36
Virginia Tech	9.3	46
West Virginia	8.0	56
Western Kentucky	0.0	999
Wichita St.	18.5	20
Wright St.	0.0	999
Xavier	17.2	22

Below are all the NBA prospects whether or not they are on a team in the mix for the tournament.

School/Team	NBA Prospect	Class	Prospect Rating
Alabama	Collin Sexton	Fr.	9.4
Alabama	Donta Hall	Jr.	6.4
Alabama	John Petty	Fr.	6.0
Alabama	Tevin Mack	Jr.	3.0
Arizona	DeAndre Ayton	Fr.	10.0
Arizona	Rawle Alkins	So.	6.8
Arizona	Allonzo Trier	Jr.	6.5
Arizona	Dusan Ristic	Sr.	5.0
Arizona	Keanu Pinder	Sr.	4.3
Arizona	Chance Comanche	So.	4.0
Arizona	Chase Jeter	Jr.	3.6
Arizona	Brandon Randolph	Fr.	2.4
Arizona	Emmanuel Akot	Fr.	1.9
Arizona St.	Zylan Cheatham	Jr.	3.6
Arizona St.	Remy Martin	Fr.	1.9
Arizona St.	Romello White	Fr.	1.5
Arkansas	Daniel Gafford	Fr.	8.4
Auburn	Austin Wiley	So.	6.9
Auburn	Chuma Okeke	Fr.	1.6
Baylor	Jo Lual-Acuil	Sr.	5.8
Baylor	Johnathan Motley	Jr.	5.7
Baylor	Tristan Clark	Fr.	1.7
Boise St.	Chandler Hutchison	Sr.	6.7
Boston College	Jerome Robinson	Jr.	7.4
Boston College	Ky Bowman	So.	5.9
Butler	Kelan Martin	Sr.	5.8
California	Ivan Rabb	So.	4.2
Central Michigan	Marcus Keene	Jr.	4.5
Cincinnati	Jacob Evans	Jr.	6.6
Cincinnati	Kyle Washington	Sr.	5.0
Cincinnati	Gary Clark	Sr.	4.7
Cincinnati	Keith Williams	Fr.	2.0
Clemson	Donte Grantham	Sr.	4.9
Clemson	Marcquise Reed	Jr.	3.0
Colorado	George King	Sr.	4.5
Colorado	McKinley Wright	Fr.	1.4
Connecticut	Jalen Adams	Jr.	3.6
Creighton	Khyri Thomas	Jr.	8.5
Creighton	Marcus Foster	Sr.	5.1
Davidson	Kellan Grady	Fr.	1.7
Dayton	Kostas Antetokounmpo	Fr.	1.9
Duke	Marvin Bagley	Fr.	9.8
Duke	Wendell Carter	Fr.	9.5
Duke	Gary Trent	Fr.	8.7
Duke	Grayson Allen	Sr.	7.9
Duke	Trevon Duval	Fr.	7.0
Duke	Marques Bolden	So.	6.3
Duke	Luke Kennard	So.	4.3
Duke	Alex O'Connell	Fr.	1.6
Florida	Jalen Hudson	Jr.	6.5
Florida	Devin Robinson	Jr.	5.4
Florida	John Egbunu	Sr.	4.6
Florida Gulf Coast	Haanif Cheatham	Jr.	3.2
Florida St.	Xavier Rathan-Mayes	Jr.	5.2
Florida St.	Dwayne Bacon	So.	4.2
Florida St.	MJ Walker	Fr.	2.1
Georgetown	LJ Peak	Jr.	5.2
Georgetown	Jessie Govan	Jr.	3.1
Georgia	Yante Maten	Sr.	6.5
Georgia	Rayshaun Hammonds	Fr.	2.3
Georgia Tech	Josh Okogie	So.	6.5
Georgia Tech	Ben Lammers	Sr.	4.9
Gonzaga	Rui Hachimura	So.	7.3
Gonzaga	Killian Tillie	So.	6.9
Gonzaga	Nigel Williams-Goss	Jr.	5.6
Gonzaga	Johnathan Williams	Sr.	5.2
Gonzaga	Zach Norvell	Fr.	2.0
Gonzaga	Corey Kispert	Fr.	2.0
Gonzaga	Jacob Larsen	Fr.	1.6
Indiana	James Blackmon	Jr.	5.1
Indiana	OG Anunoby	So.	4.1
Indiana	Thomas Bryant	So.	3.9
Iowa St.	Lindell Wigginton	Fr.	5.9
Kansas	Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk	Sr.	7.0
Kansas	Devonte Graham	Sr.	6.8
Kansas	Udoka Azubuike	So.	6.6
Kansas	Lagerald Vick	Jr.	6.3
Kansas	Dedric Lawson	Jr.	3.7
Kansas	Marcus Garrett	Fr.	1.7
Kansas St.	Barry Brown	Jr.	6.4
Kentucky	Kevin Knox	Fr.	9.2
Kentucky	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	Fr.	9.0
Kentucky	Hamidou Diallo	Fr.	7.0
Kentucky	Jarred Vanderbilt	Fr.	6.2
Kentucky	Nick Richards	Fr.	6.1
Kentucky	PJ Washington	Fr.	5.9
Kentucky	Isaac Humphries	So.	3.6
Kentucky	Isaiah Briscoe	So.	3.5
Kentucky	Quade Green	Fr.	1.7
La Salle	BJ Johnson	Sr.	4.6
Louisville	Raymond Spalding	Jr.	6.4
Louisville	Jaylen Johnson	Jr.	5.0
Louisville	Quentin Snider	Sr.	5.0
Louisville	Anas Mahmoud	Sr.	4.9
Louisville	Donovan Mitchell	So.	4.3
Louisville	Deng Adel	Jr.	3.8
Louisville	Malik Williams	Fr.	1.4
LSU	Kavell Bigby-Williams	Sr.	5.1
LSU	Antonio Blakeney	So.	3.9
LSU	Tremont Waters	Fr.	2.3
Marshall	Jon Elmore	Jr.	5.3
Maryland	Bruno Fernando	Fr.	8.6
Maryland	Kevin Huerter	So.	6.1
Maryland	Melo Trimble	Jr.	5.5
Maryland	Michal Cekovsky	Sr.	4.7
Miami FL	Lonnie Walker	Fr.	8.8
Miami FL	Bruce Brown	So.	6.6
Miami FL	Dewan Huell	So.	6.2
Miami FL	JaQuan Newton	Sr.	4.3
Michigan	Moritz Wagner	Jr.	7.1
Michigan	Charles Matthews	So.	6.3
Michigan St.	Jaren Jackson	Fr.	9.7
Michigan St.	Miles Bridges	So.	8.9
Minnesota	Nate Mason	Sr.	4.4
Minnesota	Isaiah Washington	Fr.	1.5
Mississippi	Devontae Shuler	Fr.	1.9
Mississippi St.	Quinndary Weatherspoon	Jr.	3.5
Mississippi St.	Nick Weatherspoon	Fr.	2.2
Missouri	Michael Porter	Fr.	9.9
Missouri	Jontay Porter	Fr.	7.6
Missouri	Jordan Barnett	Sr.	6.2
Missouri	Jeremiah Tilmon	Fr.	2.3
Missouri St.	Alize Johnson	Sr.	6.7
Montana St.	Tyler Hall	Jr.	3.1
Nevada	Kendall Stephens	Sr.	6.8
Nevada	Caleb Martin	Jr.	6.2
Nevada	Cam Oliver	So.	4.0
New Mexico	JaQuan Lyle	Jr.	3.3
New Mexico	Carlton Bragg	Jr.	3.2
New Mexico St.	Sidy Ndir	So.	3.5
North Carolina	Justin Jackson	Jr.	5.7
North Carolina	Joel Berry	Sr.	5.1
North Carolina	Theo Pinson	Sr.	4.9
North Carolina	Cameron Johnson	Jr.	4.5
North Carolina St.	Omer Yurtseven	So.	7.2
North Carolina St.	Allerik Freeman	Sr.	4.8
North Carolina St.	Abdul Malik Abu	Sr.	4.4
North Carolina St.	Torin Dorn	Jr.	3.8
North Carolina St.	Maverick Rowan	So.	3.3
Northeastern	Jeremy Miller	Jr.	3.0
Northwestern	Vic Law	Jr.	3.0
Notre Dame	Bonzie Colson	Sr.	6.0
Notre Dame	DJ Harvey	Fr.	2.1
Ohio St.	Keita Bates-Diop	Sr.	5.1
Oklahoma	Trae Young	Fr.	9.3
Oklahoma	Khadeem Lattin	Sr.	4.5
Oklahoma St.	Jeffrey Carroll	Sr.	5.4
Oklahoma St.	Jawun Evans	So.	4.2
Oklahoma St.	Yankuba Sima	Jr.	3.5
Oregon	Troy Brown	Fr.	8.1
Oregon	Jordan Bell	Jr.	5.7
Oregon	Dillon Brooks	Jr.	5.6
Oregon	Elijah Brown	Sr.	4.8
Oregon	Tyler Dorsey	So.	4.0
Oregon	Victor Bailey	Fr.	1.8
Oregon	Abu Kigab	Fr.	1.6
Oregon	Kenny Wooten	Fr.	1.4
Oregon St.	Drew Eubanks	Jr.	3.6
Oregon St.	Stephen Thompson	Jr.	2.9
Oregon St.	Tres Tinkle	So.	2.9
Oregon St.	Ethan Thompson	Fr.	1.5
Penn St.	Tony Carr	So.	6.9
Pittsburgh	Marcus Carr	Fr.	1.8
Providence	Jalen Lindsey	Sr.	4.4
Providence	Makai Ashton-Langford	Fr.	1.8
Purdue	Vince Edwards	Sr.	5.3
Purdue	Isaac Haas	Sr.	4.6
Purdue	Caleb Swanigan	So.	4.1
Rhode Island	EC Matthews	Sr.	5.3
Rhode Island	Jared Terrell	Sr.	4.3
Rutgers	Corey Sanders	Jr.	3.4
Saint Mary's	Jock Landale	Sr.	4.5
San Diego St.	Malik Pope	Sr.	5.0
San Diego St.	Jeremy Hemsley	Jr.	3.7
Seton Hall	Angel Delgado	Sr.	4.6
SMU	Shake Milton	Jr.	6.4
SMU	Semi Ojeleye	Jr.	5.7
SMU	Ethan Chargois	Fr.	1.8
South Carolina	Brian Bowen	Fr.	6.0
South Carolina	PJ Dozier	So.	4.1
St. Bonaventure	Jaylen Adams	Sr.	6.6
St. Bonaventure	Jalen Poyser	Jr.	3.0
St. John's	Shamorie Ponds	So.	6.1
St. John's	Kassoum Yakwe	Jr.	2.9
Stanford	Reid Travis	Jr.	4.8
Stanford	Daejon Davis	Fr.	2.0
Stanford	Oscar da Silva	Fr.	1.7
Syracuse	O'Shae Brissett	Fr.	6.5
Syracuse	Tyler Lydon	So.	4.2
Syracuse	Franklin Howard	Jr.	3.1
TCU	Kenrich Williams	Sr.	6.7
Temple	Obi Enechionyia	Sr.	5.2
Temple	Shizz Alston	Jr.	3.2
Texas	Mohamed Bamba	Fr.	9.6
Texas	Jericho Sims	Fr.	6.9
Texas	Kerwin Roach	Jr.	6.6
Texas	Eric Davis	Jr.	3.2
Texas	Matt Coleman	Fr.	2.1
Texas A&M	Robert Williams	So.	8.3
Texas A&M	DJ Hogg	Jr.	3.8
Texas A&M	Tyler Davis	Jr.	3.4
Texas A&M	Admon Gilder	Jr.	3.1
Texas Southern	Donte Clark	Sr.	4.7
Texas Tech	Zhaire Smith	Fr.	6.9
Texas Tech	Zach Smith	Sr.	5.3
Tulane	Melvin Frazier	Jr.	6.1
UAB	William Lee	Sr.	4.4
UCF	Tacko Fall	Jr.	3.3
UCLA	Aaron Holiday	Jr.	8.2
UCLA	Kris Wilkes	Fr.	6.7
UCLA	Jaylen Hands	Fr.	6.3
UCLA	Thomas Welsh	Sr.	5.6
UCLA	Chris Smith	Fr.	2.1
UNLV	Brandon McCoy	Fr.	7.5
USC	Chimezie Metu	Jr.	7.7
USC	De'Anthony Melton	So.	5.9
USC	Elijah Stewart	Jr.	5.6
USC	Jordan McLaughlin	Sr.	4.9
USC	Bennie Boatwright	So.	3.9
USC	Shaqquan Aaron	Jr.	3.3
USC	Charles O'Bannon	Fr.	1.6
UT Arlington	Kevin Hervey	Sr.	6.7
Utah	Kyle Kuzma	Jr.	5.8
Vanderbilt	Matthew Fisher-Davis	Sr.	5.5
VCU	Marcus Evans	Jr.	3.1
Villanova	Mikal Bridges	Jr.	9.1
Villanova	Jalen Brunson	Jr.	6.8
Villanova	Omari Spellman	Fr.	6.0
Villanova	Phil Booth	Jr.	4.7
Villanova	Jermaine Samuels	Fr.	1.5
Virginia	DeAndre Hunter	Fr.	6.4
Virginia	Kyle Guy	So.	5.8
Virginia Tech	Nickeil Alexander-Walker	Fr.	6.2
Virginia Tech	Chris Clarke	Jr.	3.2
Wake Forest	John Collins	So.	4.2
Wake Forest	Bryant Crawford	Jr.	3.8
Wake Forest	Chaundee Brown	Fr.	1.9
Washington	Matisse Thybulle	Jr.	3.7
Washington	Jaylen Nowell	Fr.	2.2
Washington St.	Robert Franks	Jr.	6.3
West Virginia	Jevon Carter	Sr.	4.7
West Virginia	Esa Ahmad	Jr.	3.3
Western Michigan	Thomas Wilder	Sr.	6.1
Wichita St.	Landry Shamet	So.	7.8
Wichita St.	Markis McDuffie	Jr.	5.9
Wichita St.	Zach Brown	Sr.	4.8
Wisconsin	Ethan Happ	Jr.	6.0
Xavier	Trevon Bluiett	Sr.	5.8
Xavier	JP Macura	Sr.	5.4
Xavier	Edmond Sumner	So.	4.1
Xavier	Paul Scruggs	Fr.	2.0

March Madness Updates Due to Mismatches in Steals, 3-pointers or Rebounds

In looking for a match-up upset in the NCAA tournament, look at the possibility of a mismatch in one of these three areas (higher, positive numbers are best in every column). First the brackets of potential upsets based on an underdog being able to dominate on steals, 3-pointers or offensive rebounds, then the explanation of each potential mismatch.

(Marquette Note: Marquette is a +3.9 in 3-point shooting, meaning they score 24.9 points for every 20 three-point attempts, which would have been barely behind Purdue for the top mark in the tournament. The one Region that would have projected a mismatch win is against TCU in the Midwest, which had a -1.6 on defending the arc - they were worse than average defending the arc meaning they allow 22.6 points per 20 opponents three-pointers. The combination of Marquette's three-points shooting and the weak TCU defense projects to multiply on each other to provide more three-point shots and high percentage made to give MU a run. They would have projected to lose to Michigan State in the next round.)

Seed	South	Mismatch	Which Mismatch	Steals	Off 3 pt	Off Reb	Protect ball	Deny 3	Def Reb
1	Virginia	6		1.8	2.1	-0.3	2.0	3.6	1.1
16	UMBC			1.4	1.8	-0.7	-0.3	-0.4	-0.3
8	Creighton	1		-0.8	1.5	-2.4	0.2	1.2	1.6
9	Kansas St.			2.1	-0.4	-0.8	0.3	1.2	-1.1
				Steals	Off 3 pt	Off Reb	Protect ball	Deny 3	Def Reb
5	Kentucky	1		-0.5	-0.2	2.6	0.3	3.9	-0.7
12	Davidson			-1.0	2.0	-2.0	0.9	0.0	2.7
4	Arizona	2	off reb>kentucky	-1.0	2.0	1.5	-0.1	-0.5	1.2
13	Buffalo			-0.3	1.4	1.2	0.9	1.0	0.0
	South	Mismatch	Which Mismatch	Steals	Off 3 pt	Off Reb	Protect ball	Deny 3	Def Reb
6	Miami FL			0.6	0.8	0.1	0.3	1.6	0.1
11	Loyola Chicago	1	steals>Miami	1.0	3.0	-2.3	-0.7	1.6	1.0
3	Tennessee	2		0.5	1.6	1.5	0.2	2.4	-0.8
14	Wright St.			0.5	-0.6	0.1	0.2	0.1	1.4
				Steals	Off 3 pt	Off Reb	Protect ball	Deny 3	Def Reb
7	Nevada			-0.1	3.2	-0.5	2.3	2.7	-0.1
10	Texas	1		0.2	-2.1	0.3	0.7	1.3	-0.3
2	Cincinnati	3		1.7	0.7	3.5	1.0	2.9	0.0
15	Georgia St.			1.2	2.3	-1.0	1.3	0.2	-1.3
Seed	West	Mismatch	Which Mismatch	Steals	Off 3 pt	Off Reb	Protect ball	Deny 3	Def Reb
1	Xavier	2		-0.5	1.1	0.5	-0.3	1.0	2.5
16	North Carolina Central			-1.2	-1.0	1.3	1.1	1.0	-0.4
16	Texas Southern			-0.7	0.3	0.0	1.3	-1.4	-1.1
8	Missouri			-0.8	2.5	0.8	-0.5	1.7	0.1
9	Florida St.	1	Off Reb>Missouri	0.3	0.0	1.6	0.5	-0.8	-0.5
				Steals	Off 3 pt	Off Reb	Protect ball	Deny 3	Def Reb
5	Ohio St.	1		0.1	0.2	0.6	0.9	0.3	1.5
12	San Diego St.			0.2	-0.4	1.1	0.1	1.0	1.3
4	Gonzaga	3		0.3	1.4	1.5	1.2	-0.3	2.6
13	UNC Greensboro			1.5	0.3	1.8	-0.9	1.6	2.0
Seed	West	Mismatch	Which Mismatch	Steals	Off 3 pt	Off Reb	Protect ball	Deny 3	Def Reb
6	Houston	2	Off Reb>Michigan	0.4	2.4	2.3	0.8	1.5	1.3
11	South Dakota St.			-1.4	2.5	-1.4	1.8	0.8	2.5
3	Michigan	1		0.4	0.8	-0.9	2.4	0.5	1.7
14	Montana			1.6	-0.7	2.0	1.1	0.3	0.9
				Steals	Off 3 pt	Off Reb	Protect ball	Deny 3	Def Reb
7	Texas A&M			-0.5	-1.3	2.0	-0.2	1.7	0.1
10	Providence	1	Steals>Tex A&M	0.7	-0.9	0.2	-0.5	2.1	0.1
2	North Carolina	4		-0.6	0.9	3.5	0.1	-1.8	1.1
15	Lipscomb			-0.4	-1.2	-0.2	-0.5	1.0	1.9
Seed	East	Mismatch	Which Mismatch	Steals	Off 3 pt	Off Reb	Protect ball	Deny 3	Def Reb
1	Villanova	5		0.4	2.9	-0.2	2.1	1.4	0.7
16	LIU Brooklyn			-0.7	-0.1	0.4	-0.3	1.5	-0.4
16	Radford			0.8	0.0	1.3	0.3	0.5	0.1
8	Virginia Tech	1		-0.4	2.1	-1.8	0.9	0.3	-0.2
9	Alabama			0.4	-1.6	0.1	-0.5	2.7	-0.8
				Steals	Off 3 pt	Off Reb	Protect ball	Deny 3	Def Reb
5	West Virginia			2.0	0.0	2.9	0.8	-0.8	-0.5
12	Murray St.	2	3-pt&OffR>WVU,3pt>Wich	0.7	1.4	1.4	0.7	2.9	0.5
4	Wichita St.	1		-1.4	2.1	2.3	0.2	-0.6	2.7
13	Marshall			-0.1	0.2	-2.2	0.1	0.0	-0.9
Seed	East	Mismatch	Which Mismatch	Steals	Off 3 pt	Off Reb	Protect ball	Deny 3	Def Reb
6	Florida			1.0	1.4	0.2	2.0	-0.3	-0.6
11	St. Bonaventure	1	3pt>Flo	0.9	3.1	0.4	0.9	2.6	-0.4
11	UCLA	1		-0.5	2.3	0.1	0.4	0.0	0.5
3	Texas Tech			1.5	0.9	1.8	0.1	1.8	0.0
14	Stephen F. Austin	2	Steals>TexTech & UCLA/StB	3.1	1.6	1.4	-0.9	-0.6	-0.2
				Steals	Off 3 pt	Off Reb	Protect ball	Deny 3	Def Reb
7	Arkansas	1	3-pt>Butler	0.2	3.0	0.0	2.0	0.3	-1.0
10	Butler			0.6	0.3	-0.3	1.4	-1.2	1.8
2	Purdue	3		-0.1	4.2	-0.3	0.9	0.8	0.1
15	Cal St. Fullerton			0.2	-0.1	-0.6	0.3	-0.8	-0.2
Seed	Midwest	Mismatch	Which Mismatch	Steals	Off 3 pt	Off Reb	Protect ball	Deny 3	Def Reb
1	Kansas	1		0.5	2.9	0.2	0.5	1.5	-0.9
16	Penn			-0.3	-0.3	-1.4	1.2	3.7	2.3
8	Seton Hall			0.1	0.8	2.0	0.3	1.0	0.0
9	North Carolina St.	2	Off Reb>Seton Hall, Kans	1.2	1.3	1.8	0.1	2.3	-1.0
				Steals	Off 3 pt	Off Reb	Protect ball	Deny 3	Def Reb
5	Clemson	1		-0.2	0.9	-0.4	0.0	-0.3	0.7
12	New Mexico St.			-0.7	-1.0	2.1	1.8	3.3	2.5
4	Auburn	3		1.0	0.9	1.5	0.2	-0.2	0.1
13	College of Charleston			-0.5	0.8	-1.0	2.8	0.0	0.2
Seed	Midwest	Mismatch	Which Mismatch	Steals	Off 3 pt	Off Reb	Protect ball	Deny 3	Def Reb
6	TCU			0.4	3.0	2.1	0.0	-1.6	1.0
11	Arizona St.	1		0.2	0.8	-0.2	1.0	0.5	-0.7
11	Syracuse	1		1.6	-1.7	2.3	-0.6	1.4	-0.2
3	Michigan St.	2		-1.9	3.8	2.6	-0.1	1.1	0.7
14	Bucknell			-0.7	-0.4	-0.5	-0.3	1.2	0.4
				Steals	Off 3 pt	Off Reb	Protect ball	Deny 3	Def Reb
7	Rhode Island	1	Steals>Okl	1.7	-0.4	0.7	0.4	1.7	0.5
10	Oklahoma			-0.1	0.8	-0.2	-0.1	-0.6	-0.5
2	Duke	4		1.3	1.9	3.7	0.6	1.8	-0.1
15	Iona			0.4	2.3	-1.5	1.5	-0.3	-0.6

1) STEALS. An average team steals the ball 6 times a game (in 68 trips down the court). This ends the opponent's chance to score and giving the team a chance for an easy basket at the other end. The first column shows how far above average a team is at steals, with West "Press" Virginia average +2.0 steals per game. If a team with a high plus like that goes up against a team who is not good at protecting the ball (such as Syracuse who has a -0.6 in column 4 for giving up steals to be worse than the average team in the country) then the team with lots of steals can completely disrupt the opponent. Stephen F. Austin won the Southland Saturday night, and the reason they are a threat is they are +3.1 in steals, a full steal better than West Virginia or anyone else in the tournament.

2) 3-POINTERS. An average team scores 21 points on 20 three-point shots (seven made). Purdue averages 4.2 points more per 20 three-point shots (hits almost 8.5 per 20). If a team like that goes up against a team bad at denying three-pointers (e.g. in Column 5 North Carolina has a -1.8 meaning their defense gives up 1.8 points MORE per 20 three-pointers attempted than an average defense) then the three-point shooting team can win even if they are trading three-pointers for two-pointers at the other end.

3) OFFENSIVE REBOUNDS. An average team grabs 10 offensive rebounds on 35 missed shots. Duke, UNC, and Cincinnati get 3.5 extra offensive rebounds per 35 missed shots (column 3). After doing this table before the UNC-Duke ACC semifinal, I noticed Duke is actually below average in defensive rebounding (-0.1 in column 6 means below even the national average, much less of tournament teams). UNC grabbed 18 offensive rebounds to defeat Duke, showing how a team that can overwhelm the opponent on the boards can keep the ball alive until they finally score.

The seventh column indicates how above average a team is at everything else - mainly the things that happen in half court offense and defense - dead ball turnovers, getting to the line and making free throws, and hitting more difficult two-pointers that do not come off a steal or offensive rebounding. The most important of the Four Factors measured at www.kenpom.com is shooting (effective Field Goal Percentage or eFG% means the shooting percentage after adding a half shot made for every three-pointer made). However, a team's eFG% is likely higher if they get more steals and offensive rebounds to create easier shots.

Value Add 2018 All-American Team

Attention Sports Writers and Athletic Departments:

This year the top three players in the country based on our www.valueaddbasketball.com calculations and those of Sports Reference's Win Shares are identical. Jock Landale is first in both (11.48 points above replacement Value Add and 7.5 Win Shares) followed by Deandre Ayton (Arizona, 11.07 and 6.1) and Gary Clark (Cincinnati 11.05, 6.1). Also see CBS Sports 247 site story here.

Here are the notes on the 1st, 2nd and 3rd team All-American units based on the Value Add ratings and positions identified at www.kenpom.com for 4,000-plus players, and any updates will be added to www.pudnersports.com.

1st team All-Americans

PG - Trae Young (Oklahoma, top left)  - led Value Add for most of the year and still the best of three incredible Big 12 guards, While the Seth Curry shooting comparisons all year were justified for his insane long three-pointers, the most incredible stat is that he assists on 49.9 percent of all baskets scored by his teammates on the court and that he is so hard to guard he draws 7.6 fouls per 40 minutes on the court.

SG - Jonathan Stark (Murray St. , top second left) is fourth in Win Shares at 6.1 and ranks as a 1st team All-American as the best Value Add of any shooting guard at 8.44. Despite playing more than 92 percent of all minutes, Stark doesn't seem to tire as an excellent passer (assists on 23.4 percent of teammates field goals), while hitting 90 percent of his free throws, and 42 percent of his three-pointers to lead Murray State to a 24-5 mark.

SF - Mikal Bridges (Villanova, top center) is the perfect swing player at the three spot with Dwyane Wade-like ability to block 3.5% of all opponents shots and steal the ball 2.8% of all opponents trips, but also step out to the arc often to his 70 three-pointers at a blistering 42 percent pace.

PF - Gary Clark (Cincinnati, top 2nd from right) defensive rating of -4.49 means he single-handedly takes away 4.49 points from the opponent per 100 trips down the court, the third best in the country behind Mohamed Bamba (Texas) and Isaiah Wilkins (Virginia). And when he does have the ball, www.kenpom.com rates him as the 11th most effective offensive player in the country.

C (and Player of the Year, top right) - Jock Landale (Saint Mary's) is not only the best player in the country based on his 11.48 points above replacement player at www.valueaddbasketball.com, but also easily the best in the country based on his 7.5 Sports Reference's Win Shares (second place is 6.1). His 260 made two-pointers is 49 more than the second best - Ethan Happ of Wisconsin at 221, and he hits them at a 65 percent clip.

2nd team All-Americans

PG - Jevon Carter (West Virginia, left photo on bottom) leads a ferocious defense that turns over the opponent 23.8 percent of their trips down the court, second only to Stephen F. Austin as a team and Carter is 11th in steals at 4.7 percent of opponents trips down the court. Third in Value Add at 11.05 points per game above replacement.

SG - Allonzo Trier (Arizona, second left photo on bottom) faces heavy defensive focus to hit 43 percent of his three-pointers, 65 percent of his two-pointers and 85 percent of his foul shots. A nearly unstoppable force, and if he and Ayton are on the court for the tournament Arizona is very tough. However, they are not deep, so if either is missing it will be hard to make a run.

SF - Trevon Bluiett (Xavier, center bottom photo) make Xavier one of the few teams to get great numbers from the "3," or small forward spot this year. While most teams rely on point guards and big men - the two extremes - Bluitt is apple to step back and hit 43.4 percent of his threes and get to the rim from the toughest position on the court and then convert when fouled (126 of 150 free throws for 84 percent) to give Xavier the balance for the seventh best offense in the country according to www.kenpom.com.

PF - Yante Maten (Georgia, second photo from right on bottom) was on course for a 1st or 2nd team All-American pick last year until a late-season injury, and this year he is one of only five players worth more than 10 points per game above a replacement (10.44) and only slips to the second team because Clark also plays power forward.

C - Deandre Ayton (Arizona, bottom right photo) blitzed Oregon on the road Saturday for 11 of 14 shooting, 28 points, 18 rebounds and five blocked shots to move all the way into second place at 11.07 points above a replacement player at www.valueaddbasketball.com. Unfortunately for him, the first place guy is also a center, so he is on the second team.

3rd Team All-American

PG - Devonte' Graham (Kansas) went into #6 Texas Tech Saturday and dominated to give Kansas a ridiculous 14 straight Big 12 titles. He might be the Big 12 player of the year, but unfortunately, the two other players vying for that title are Young and Carter. The only thing we can say for sure is that the best point guard in the country is from the Big 12, but right now the other two have a slightly higher Value Add to nudge Graham down to the third team - but they could go in any order.

SG - Jerome Robinson (Boston College) is one of the few dominant shooting guards in a game now dominated by point guards, centers, and to some degree power forwards - the 1,4 and 5 spot. Robinson hits 45 percent of this three-pointers, 55 percent of his two-pointers and has hit 84 percent of his free throws while getting to the line a lot for the "2" position (140 of 253). He played all 40 minutes (or more in overtime) in 9 of 16 ACC games and left it all on the court in Miami this weekend with his epic 12 of 17 shooting performance that fell one point short.

SF/PF (tie) - John Konchar (Fort Wayne) and SF/PF (tie) - Dylan Windler (Belmont) - Pomeroy listed two players who split time between Small Forward and Power Forward, and they were so close in Value Add (8.36 and 8.11) that we rated them a tie for the last spot. Windler is the latest in great Belmont shooters (43 percent from behind the arc and 67 percent from inside), while Konchar has unique talents as a player who can play power forward but also assists on one in four baskets made by his teammates and is one of only 21 players in the nation to steal the ball four percent of opponents' trips down the court.

PF - Keita Bates-Diop (Ohio St.) did not sit a minute in the two-point overtime win at Indiana this weekend in which he scored 24 points, grabbed 14 rebounds, added four blocked shots, four steals, and even two assists to improve his Value Add to 9.97 points above replacement, the seventh best in the nation. I know Miles Bridges and Ethan Happ came in as likely Big Ten Players of the Year, but it has really been Bates-Diop who deserves it in leading Ohio State to a surprise 15-3 mark to tie Purdue for second in the conference.

C - Dean Wade (Kansas St.) gives the Big 12 a center with the sixth best Value Add rating in the country at 9.98 points per game above a replacement player to go along with the three best point guards in the country. At 6-foot-10 Wade is a match-up nightmare because he drops behind the arc three times a game and hits 42.4 percent (36 of 85). He also steals the ball more than three times as often as the first and second team All-American centers above (incredible 2.8 percent of opponents trips down the court) and also blocks 3.2 percent of opponents shots.

Feel free to call John Pudner at 404.606.3163 or email pudnerjohn@gmail.com with any questions. For anyone getting this email who did not receive this email for the past five Value Add All-American basketball teams, feel free to repost this information. The Value Add Basketball season lauded by many national sports outlets for pinpointing player values. (See past All-American teams by clicking here - 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014 and 2013). 

It may be you opt for subjective observation for players like Miles Bridges, whose Value Add was held down by not needing to score a lot of points while facing a very weak December schedule of teams ranked and still only being MVP in one of those first 15 games according to www.kenpom.com. Likewise Shamorie Ponds, who put up fairly week numbers until he destroyed Duke and Villanova in back-to-back games. Both of these players have played at an All-American level down the stretch and might be they are "better" than others on our list - we can only tell you they were not as "valuable" over the course of the season.

Here is a list of near misses. In some cases, the players below could have been listed above except they missed games - especially Notre Dame's Bonzie Colson who has a chance at National Player of the Year until he was injured in the 13th game. In other cases, a player was in the top 15 at www.valueaddbasketball.com but had three players at his position ahead of him.

Honorable Mention (alphabetical)	Ht	Yr	School
Marvin Bagley #35	6'11"	Fr	Duke
Mohamed Bamba #4	6'11"	Fr	Texas
Miles Bridges #22	6'7"	So	Michigan St.
Jalen Brunson #1	6'2"	Jr	Villanova
Bonzie Colson #35	6'6"	Sr	Notre Dame
Carsen Edwards #3	6'1"	So	Purdue
Jacob Evans #1	6'6"	Jr	Cincinnati
Keenan Evans #12	6'3"	Sr	Texas Tech
Donte Grantham #32	6'8"	Sr	Clemson
Devon Hall #0	6'5"	Sr	Virginia
Ethan Happ #22	6'10"	Jr	Wisconsin
Chandler Hutchison #15	6'7"	Sr	Boise St.
Luke Maye #32	6'8"	Jr	North Carolina
Juwan Morgan #13	6'7"	Jr	Indiana
Michael Oguine #0	6'2"	Jr	Montana
Josh Okogie #5	6'4"	So	Georgia Tech
Shamorie Ponds #2	6'1"	So	St. John's
James Thompson #2	6'10"	Jr	Eastern Michigan

3 Weeks before March Madness picks w/ injures to Auburn, Marquette and Texas Tech

Three weeks from today you will be filling out March Madness brackets, and here is the outlook given recent injuries and possible returning players.

ESPN’s Strength of Record (Resume Tab) gives the best statistical projection of who deserves which seed - from No. 1 Virginia to No. 48 Marquette, while www.kenpom.com measures how many points separate each team, and www.valueaddbasketball.com breaks down how many points each player is worth. Put them together with injury reports from DonBest, and the following is the breakdown of which teams could surge or fall based on injuries or returns for big-time players.

Click on the four great sources that covered Value Add Basketball last week (photos below); nationally the 24^th ranked news site, this 247 site from CBS Sports (the home of March Madness), the video interview on the Value Add projections nailing Auburn’s breakout season site, and my Pudner sports.

Strength of Record Rank, followed by team, conference, record through Saturday, and how a key injury or returning player impacts how far each of these teams should go in your bracket:

8, Texas Tech, B12, 22-5, Texas Tech has not announced how serious the injury to Keenan Evans is, but his 8.93 Value Add is just a notch below All-American and they may need his return in order to make an Elite 8 run, IMPACT – with Evans 3 wins in NCAA, without him just 1 win.

10, Clemson, ACC, 20-5, Clemson looked loaded for a big run, but losing Donte Grantham after 19 games, who was almost on an All-American pace for a 9.40 Value Add, could make a second-round game tough. IMPACT – looked likely to get 3 wins, and can still get one win with Grantham out.

12, Auburn, SEC, 23-4, the loss of Anfernee McLemore (5.38) after the last game could cost Auburn a deep run, though they still are 8 deep and if they did get a last-minute NCAA clearance for Danjel Purifoy, who has been practicing all year, he basically makes up the difference (projected Value Add of 5.41). IMPACT – at least 3 wins likely with McLemore, and still possible if Purifoy were to be cleared, but could be just one win with neither.

27, Nevada, MWC, 23-5, Nevada is a dangerous team in the tournament and looked like a potential Sweet 16 team, but the loss of Lindsey Drew, with a 4.91 Value Add, after 27 games, will make it much tougher for them to win opening round. IMPACT – Two wins that would have been likely with Drew, likely close opening round loss with him gone.

30, Texas A&M, SEC, 17-10, Texas A&M fought through early-season injuries that took them from elite to a likely middle seed, but the late loss of former Marquette guard Duane Wilson could cost them those couple of key points in a close opening round game. IMPACT – one tournament win was likely until Wilson went down, but a likely opening round loss.

33, Creighton, BE, 19-8, while Creighton is in good shape for a middle seed in the tournament, the loss of Martin Krampelj, on pace for a 6.93 Value Add, after 19 games could be the difference in the Blue Jays winning and losing their opening round game. IMPACT – likely to win an opening round with Krampeli, but likely first-round loser without him.

38, Texas, B12, 16-11, never underestimate former VCU coach Shaka Smart, who has Texas set up for the tournament, but the loss of Andrew Jones, who was on pace for a 6.06 Value Add, after 10 games could be the difference in an opening round game if the Longhorns fall a few points short. IMPACT – win at least 1 game with Jones, but likely first-round loss with him now gone.

42, Missouri, SEC, 18-9, Missouri is good enough to get in the tournament and possibly win a game, but the potential No. 1 NBA draftee Michael Porter Jr. says he is still trying to make it back for the end of the season, and if he were to come back they could win 3 games to go Sweet 16. IMPACT – they likely lose opening round without Porter, though they have a chance to win the opening round, if Porter were to find his way back they’d be picked to win three games to go Elite 8.

48, Marquette, BE, 15-11, Marquette's rally from 16 down to upset Creighton on the road shot them up to the last bid based on SOR, at 48th, but an injury to their leading scorer Markus Howard (with a 6.41 Value Add) could take them from barely in the tournament to out unless they can prove they can win without him or it turns out he can return. IMPACT – borderline bid to no bid if Howard does not return.

59, Notre Dame, ACC, 16-11, National Player of the year candidate Bonzie Colson was on pace for a 10.83 Value add and All-American status through 13 games, but with his loss, the drop to 59th in SOR to 59th puts them 11 spots behind the projected last at-large bid, Marquette at 48th. However, if they get in and Colson returns they can win the games. IMPACT – Colson made Notre Dame good enough for at least two wins in the NCAA, the problem now is can they even get a bid to give them a chance at those wins if he returns.

66, USC, P12, 19-9, the loss of Bennie Boatwright, who was on pace for a Value Add of 3.89 through 23 games, could end the end take USC just off the bubble and into the NIT. IMPACT – likely could have snuck out a bid with Boatwright, but probably NIT without him.

68, Indiana, B10, 16-12, if De'Ron Davis were still playing. He was on pace for a Value Add of 4.88 in his 15 games played and that would have at least given the Hoosiers a shot at a bid. IMPACT –bid was possible with Davis, but not without him.

Click on these for last week's coverage of Value Add, in order from top to bottom of the Auburn interview, to the Value Add rankings of all 4069 players with notes by anyone injured, the CBS Sports 247 site, 24th most popular news site and the explanation on my blog.

Top 100 Value Add Basketball Players Going into February 5, 2018 Games - Trae Young Detroned

For all information on all 4,085 players go to http://www.valueaddbasketball.com/.

1, Jock Landale #34, Saint Mary's, 12.29

2, Trae Young #11, Oklahoma, 11.91

3, Jalen Brunson #1, Villanova, 10.88

4, Deandre Ayton #13, Arizona, 10.73

5, Gary Clark #11, Cincinnati, 10.7

6, Keita Bates-Diop #33, Ohio St., 10.63

7, Jevon Carter #2, West Virginia, 10.52

8, Yante Maten #1, Georgia, 10.06

9, Marvin Bagley #35, Duke, 10

10, Mikal Bridges #25, Villanova, 9.97

11, Mohamed Bamba #4, Texas, 9.91

12, Luke Maye #32, North Carolina, 9.87

13, Keenan Evans #12, Texas Tech, 9.76

14, Devon Hall #0, Virginia, 9.59

15, Dean Wade #32, Kansas St., 9.49

16, Devonte' Graham #4, Kansas, 9.35

17, Zach Lofton #23, New Mexico St., 9.06

18, Juwan Morgan #13, Indiana, 8.87

19, Allonzo Trier #35, Arizona, 8.76

20, Jeff Roberson #11, Vanderbilt, 8.64

21, Wendell Carter #34, Duke, 8.58

22, Chris Cokley #3, UAB, 8.41

23, Vincent Edwards #12, Purdue, 8.4

24, Tookie Brown #4, Georgia Southern, 8.32

25, Marcquise Reed #2, Clemson, 8.29

26, Caleb Martin #10, Nevada, 8.29

27, Dylan Windler #3, Belmont, 8.15

28, Jeremiah Martin #3, Memphis, 8.13

29, Elijah Bryant #3, BYU, 8.12

30, Nick King #5, Middle Tennessee, 8.07

31, Anthony Cowan #1, Maryland, 8

32, Jacob Evans #1, Cincinnati, 7.99

33, James Thompson #2, Eastern Michigan, 7.98

34, Jonathan Stark #2, Murray St., 7.97

35, Mike Watkins #24, Penn St., 7.95

36, Kenrich Williams #34, TCU, 7.94

37, Jared Terrell #32, Rhode Island, 7.94

38, Shake Milton #1, SMU, 7.91

39, CJ Massinburg #5, Buffalo, 7.9

40, Dakota Mathias #31, Purdue, 7.84

41, Chris Silva #30, South Carolina, 7.82

42, Matt Rafferty #32, Furman, 7.79

43, Ethan Happ #20, Wisconsin, 7.76

44, Josh Cunningham #0, Dayton, 7.73

45, Michael Oguine #0, Montana, 7.71

46, Justin Tillman #4, VCU, 7.65

47, Chris Chiozza #11, Florida, 7.64

48, Mike Daum #24, South Dakota St., 7.58

49, Miles Bridges #22, Michigan St., 7.57

50, Donte Grantham #32, Clemson, 7.55

51, Reid Travis #22, Stanford, 7.54

52, John Konchar #55, Fort Wayne, 7.48

53, Kevin Huerter #4, Maryland, 7.47

54, Donta Hall #0, Alabama, 7.42

55, Kelan Martin #30, Butler, 7.4

56, Isaiah Wilkins #21, Virginia, 7.38

57, Sam Merrill #3, Utah St., 7.38

58, Trevon Bluiett #5, Xavier, 7.38

59, Rob Gray #32, Houston, 7.37

60, Cassius Winston #5, Michigan St., 7.31

61, Sam Hauser #10, Marquette, 7.3

62, Dewan Huell #20, Miami FL, 7.27

63, Kyle Alexander #11, Tennessee, 7.21

64, Jordan Barnett #21, Missouri, 7.18

65, Donte DiVincenzo #10, Villanova, 7.15

66, Tra Holder #0, Arizona St., 7.12

67, Terance Mann #14, Florida St., 7.11

68, Justinian Jessup #3, Boise St., 7.09

69, Terry Taylor #21, Austin Peay, 7.06

70, Zach Thomas #23, Bucknell, 7.04

71, Desi Rodriguez #20, Seton Hall, 7.02

72, Isaac Haas #44, Purdue, 7

73, Carsen Edwards #3, Purdue, 6.98

74, Ajdin Penava #11, Marshall, 6.97

75, Jordan McLaughlin #11, USC, 6.97

76, Jordan Murphy #3, Minnesota, 6.96

77, Devin Cannady #3, Princeton, 6.96

78, Jordan Barnes #2, Indiana St., 6.96

79, Daryl Macon #4, Arkansas, 6.93

80, Anthony Lawrence #3, Miami FL, 6.93

81, Landry Shamet #11, Wichita St., 6.92

82, Quinndary Weatherspoon #11, Mississippi St., 6.91

83, Justin Bibbins #1, Utah, 6.91

84, Udoka Azubuike #35, Kansas, 6.9

85, Tyler Davis #34, Texas A&M, 6.89

86, Zhaire Smith #2, Texas Tech, 6.85

87, Ed Polite #24, Radford, 6.85

88, Ray Spalding #13, Louisville, 6.84

89, Darius Thompson #15, Western Kentucky, 6.84

90, Desonta Bradford #1, East Tennessee St., 6.82

91, Max Heidegger #21, UC Santa Barbara, 6.81

92, Cody Martin #11, Nevada, 6.79

93, Admiral Schofield #5, Tennessee, 6.78

94, Joe Cremo #24, Albany, 6.77

95, Jon Axel Gudmundsson #3, Davidson, 6.75

96, Jaren Jackson #2, Michigan St., 6.75

97, Tres Tinkle #3, Oregon St., 6.74

98, Thomas Welsh #40, UCLA, 6.74

99, Shannon Evans #11, Arizona St., 6.72

100, Kaleb Wesson #34, Ohio St., 6.72

Value Add: Original Position Adjustment (No Longer Used)

2,121 Most Valuable College Basketball Players in 2012

I believe our stat team (sorry they never want to be mentioned by name, but I’ve found researchers, data entry people, programmers and engineers are sometimes like that) has nailed how to account for perimeter defense and point guard play within the Value Add system. We just ran the program, and you can look up any team, such as the opponent drawn in the NCAA on Selection Sunday, to see where there players are ranked by clicking on the following four links (NOTE: on March 8, some updates were made to correct a few players on the following 4 links, mainly the 37 players who share a name with another Division I player - such as 53rd ranked Dion Waiters - who shares a name with a player on Jacksonville State.):

Air Force to Furman ranked players

Gardner Webb to Marist ranked players

Marquette to Syracuse ranked players

Temple to Youngstown State ranked players

The 20 most valuable players in the country are listed below, with an explanation under the table:

Rnk	Player	Team	Ht	Yr	Off	Def	PG/Per	Tot	NBA?
1	Anthony Davis	Kentucky	6'10"	Fr	7.06	-5.31		12.36	1st
2	Jae Crowder	Marquette	6'6"	Sr	6.11	-4.45		10.56	2nd
3	Draymond Green	Michigan St.	6'7"	Sr	4.27	-4.04	1.00	9.31	2nd
4	Kevin Jones	West Virginia	6'8"	Sr	7.86	-1.38		9.24	2nd
5	Cody Zeller	Indiana	6'11"	Fr	6.69	-2.08		8.76	2013
6	Thomas Robinson	Kansas	6'9"	Jr	4.54	-3.87		8.40	1st
7	Will Barton	Memphis	6'6"	So	5.79	-2.37		8.16	2nd
8	John Shurna	Northwestern	6'9"	Sr	7.21	-0.91		8.12
9	Jared Sullinger	Ohio St.	6'9"	So	5.05	-3.01		8.06	1st
10	Jordan Taylor	Wisconsin	6'1"	Sr	5.20	-1.28	1.50	7.98	2nd
11	T.J. McConnell	Duquesne	6'1"	So	3.40	-3.01	1.5	7.91
12	C.J. McCollum	Lehigh	6'3"	Jr	4.46	-2.44	1	7.90	2013
13	Marcus Denmon	Missouri	6'3"	Sr	7.39	-0.34		7.73	2nd
14	Isaiah Canaan	Murray St.	6'0"	Jr	6.16	-0.54	1	7.70	2013
15	John Jenkins	Vanderbilt	6'4"	Jr	7.11	0.00	0.5	7.61	1st
16	Damian Lillard	Weber St.	6'2"	Jr	7.59	1.00	1	7.59	1st
17	Tyler Zeller	North Carolina	7'0"	Sr	5.32	-2.22		7.54	1st
18	Doug McDermott	Creighton	6'7"	So	7.42	0.00		7.42	2013
19	Mike Scott	Virginia	6'8"	Sr	5.70	-1.72		7.42	2nd
20	Scott Machado	Iona	6'1"	Sr	5.23	-0.16	2	7.40	2nd

I’ve run the Offensive and Defensive Value Add numbers before, so the new adjustment is the next value of 0.5% to 2.0% (explanation below on why that seems to calculate correctly) for players who have to bring the ball up the court and/or guard the perimeter. In most cases Assist Ratios and Minutes Played made it pretty clear who the team relied on to get the ball up the court. However, occasionally we would have to look up a big player with a high assist rate, to make a judgment call that Draymond Green really does bring the ball up a good bit for Michigan State so gets some credit, but Henry Sims is leading Georgetown in assists by whipping the ball around from the high post, so the Hoyas guard credit goes to others.

While the initial Value Add equations are precise measurement of the points a player adds to his team’s score and takes off the opponent’s score, I believe the updated program with the Point Guard/Perimeter defense adjustment passes the eye test and yields a much more accurate result than the first show I took at accounting for guard play a couple of weeks ago. While it doesn’t figure into the calculation, I noted in the far right column if a player was projected to go in the NBA draft either in the 1st round, 2nd round, or in 2013. As you can see, 18 of the top 20 Value Add players are projected NBA draft picks.

I also looked at Ken Pomeroy’s top 10 players of the year, and nine of them are in my top 11, with only Mike Scott a little lower at #19.

T.J. McConnell of Duquesne was the unknown for me until he came in at #12, but in going to look him up he may be my next year’s Jae Crowder, a player who does so many things well that he is under appreciated. He is in the top 100 in shooting, hitting over 50% of his shots including 45% of three pointers, is in the top 100 in assist rate, and is 12th in steals despite just missing the top 100 in NOT fouling. Definitely a player to watch despite playing for a mediocre team.

MATH BEHIND THE POINT GUARD/PERIMETER DEFENSE ADJUSTMENT

As far as the math behind the new calculation, good shooting guards tend to average 0.5% less value add than good front line players, due to often having to guard the perimeter rather than grab rebounds. Point guards average a bit lower than even shooting guards. Because Value Add is a very precise measurement (you can add the Value Adds on all players on a BCS team and get a very clear picture of where they rank in their conference), our stat team concluded that we could not adjust in a way that gives some teams more additional credit than others without distorting the overall team’s Value Add.

Therefore, all 345 teams were given an extra 2.5% to be split, with 0.5% being given to the better guards/perimeter defenders, and 1.0% to point guards. However, if a point guard averaged better than a 2-to-1 assist to turnover ratio then he received an extra 1.5%, and for better than 3-to-1 an extra 2.0%. Whatever the combination and number of players credited, the sum of the entire team’s players always adds up to exactly 2.5% since what we are doing is redistributed a little bit of the credit the front line is getting for rebounding or scoring in close to the guards who often break pressure or guard the perimeter without benefit of statistical credit. (You don’t always see all 2.5% for a given team, because sometimes a player receiving credit still does not make the sheet because he did not have a net positive.)

The players who do not look as good in this system as their true talent level are players from UNC and Kentucky, since with 8 and 6 projected NBA draft picks there simply aren’t enough possessions to go around. I still believe this is an accurate reflection of value, because UNC and Kentucky can replace any one star with another NBA-level player, while a star is more valuable to any of the other 343 teams since they will replace him with a much worse player.

So if you want to scout potential NCAA opponents, you could look at Alan’s s-curve. He has MU playing Davidson in the opening round, so if you go to the Air Force-Furman list and see that Davidson has no projected NBA picks but three top 300 players in point guard Nik Cochran and two big guys in De'Mon Brooks (6'7") and Jake Cohen (6'10"). A win there could put MU up against Florida, who on the same sheet we see has three projected NBA picks and three top 100 players.

Jerry Palm and Joe Lunardi today give us Belmont, who I have been saying could be the surprise Sweet 16 team since I did Value Add this past summary. That being said, I do believe we would match up pretty well since they rely on two great, but small, guards in 41st ranked Kerron Johnson (6'1") and 141st ranked Drew Hanlen (5'11"), and I believe DJO and Vander Blue would be up for that defensive challenge. Scott Saunders (6'10") and Ian Clark (6'3") make Belmont one of nine mid-Majors with four Top 400 players.

Hope this gives you a head start on your brackets!