Cubs Clinch Playoffs, Put Braves on Brink of Elimination with 5-3 Win

It is likely the sixth playoff spot in our Statis-Pro NL season will come down to the Phillies - who are in danger of missing our Statis-Pro playoffs due to pitching industries even while they are at No. 2 in the real MLB - and the Atlanta Braves who are actually out of the real playoff picture but trying to be the Statis-Pro playoffs.

If the Braves do better in their finale against the Cubs than the Phillies to against the Dodgers, then they will likely be the spoiler. They did catch one bad break in that the Cubs have a new card in Cade Horton, who has won his last two starts in the actual MLB against the Braves with more than 11 innings pitched and one run allowed. However the Braves have their ace Spencer Strider.

After the Braves games, the Phillies will know how well they need to do in their finale against the Dodgers to finish ahead of the Cubs for the last playoff spot.

Results to follow.

Jon Berti's 3rd hit of the day was a base-clearing double past a weaker fielding third baseman Austin Riley on a clutch defense play to break a tie and give the Cubs a 5-3 win. Cade Horton pitched 5.7 scoreless innings to outduel fellow PB2-8 pitcher, Spencer Strider, but gave up a 2-run homer to Matt Olson to tie the game 2-2 after 8 innings pitched. However, Drew Pomeranz came in for the save.

While the Braves finish 24-24, and the Phillies will throw Luzardo in their last game against the Dodgers and Glasnow. If they win then they finish ahead of the Braves potentially for the 6th and final playoff spot. If they lose but keep it within five runs then they would tie the Braves at 24-24 and have a one-game playoff if those two were tied for 6th.  If the Reds pass them both they could both be eliminated, or if the Padres fall beneath them the could both get into the playoffs with out a playoff game.  The Brewers, Mets and Cubs have clinched with more than 24 wins, and the Dodgers only need to go 4-11 with their  remaining games (they also still can play Arizona twice in addition to those on the grid if necessary). 

 

Pos	Deep 11'-43 = HR, Truist Park ATL
rf	Ronald Acuña Jr.
3b	Austin Riley
1b	Matt Olson
DH	Marcell Ozuna
C	Sean Murphy
RF	Jarred Kelenic
CF	Michael Harris II
2b	Ozzie Albies
SS	Nick Allen
3b	Jonathan Ornelas
of	Eli White
cf	Drake Baldwin
LF	Jurickson Profar
PB	Atlanta Braves / NL East
2'-9	Chris Sale
2'-8	Spencer Strider
2'-8	Reynaldo López
2'-7	Spencer Schwellenbach
2'-7	AJ Smith-Shawver
4'-7	Erick Fedde
4'-7	Bryce Elder
4'-7	Davis Daniel
2'-4	Carlos Carrasco
2'-8	Aaron Bummer
2'-8	Dylan Lee
2'-8	Pierce Johnson
2'-7	Daysbel Hernández
2'-7	Raisel Iglesias
2'-7	Joe Jiménez
2'-6	Tyler Kinley
4'-7	Dane Dunning
2'-6	Hunter Stratton
2'-6	Grant Holman
4'-7	Carlos Rodriguez
2'-5	Wander Suero
Pos	CHC 11'-26 = HR, Wrigley Field CHC
CF	Pete Crow-Armstrong
RF	Kyle Tucker
DH	Seiya Suzuki
LF	Ian Happ
3b	Michael Busch
SS	Dansby Swanson
2b	Nico Hoerner
C	Miguel Amaya
CF	Willi Castro
ca	Reese McGuire
1b	Jon Berti
C	Carson Kelly
3b	Justin Turner
SS	Matt Shaw
PB	Chicago Cubs / NL Central
2'-8	Justin Steele
2'-8	Matthew Boyd
2'-8	Shota Imanaga
2'-8	Cade Horton
2'-7	Jameson Taillon
4'-7	Javier Assad
4'-7	Colin Rea
4'-7	Kyle Tyler
2'-8	Drew Pomeranz
2'-7	Ryan Brasier
4'-7	Daniel Palencia
2'-7	Caleb Thielbar
4'-7	Taylor Rogers
2'-7	Porter Hodge
4'-7	Luke Little
4'-7	Andrew Kittredge
4'-7	Brad Keller
2'-6	Tom Cosgrove
2'-5	Eli Morgan
2'-5	Nate Pearson

Photos to follow.

Padres Rally in 8th for Big Win En Route to Playoffs

 The San Diego Padres, who need to juggle their line-up more than any other team due to several starters struggling massively against left-handed pitchers like Sean Manaea, finally rallied in the bottom of the 8th for a win that moved them ahead of the Phillies and Braves into 5th place. 

With the score tied 1-1 Jackson Merrill, one of three Padres who has hits turned into strikeouts on random numbers of 11-13 (his 13/88 indicates this and that against a righty an 88 turns from an out to a single) finally faced a rightly in the 8th and singled and stole second. The table below shows that we bat him No. 2 against righties but No. 9 against lefties. His hit was on an 88, so would have been an out if Manaea was still in the game.

Fernando Tatis Jr then hit a ground to 2nd base to move him to third, and when 2nd baseman Jeff McNeil bobbled the ball for an error, runners were on the corners. Tatis then also stole second base. Ramón Laureano, who is only in the line-up because of the lefty starter (87/11 indicated an 87 or 88 turns to a single against a lefty and 11 is a strikeout against a righty) then hit a ground to Francisco Lindor at short, but Merrill raced home and beat the throw home with the game winning run to make it 2-1.

Xander Bogaerts, who came into replace Manny Machado when a line drive hit him at 3rd base, then hit into a double play but Tatis scored from 3rd for the 3-1 lead. Mark Vientos homered for the Mets in the top of the 9th, but the Padres held on 3-2 for the crucial win. Here are the standings after the game in what will be a 48-game season.

Milwaukee 26-13   ---   (leads "East" for bye)

LA Dodgers 21-12  2    (leads "West" for bye)

NY Mets 25-17   2.5

Chicago Cubs 24-18  3.5

San Diego 22-20   5.5 (last team in playoffs with no tie-braker game)

Atlanta 23-22  6 (would play in one-game playoff to make playoffs if season ended today)

Philadelphia 23-22  6 (would play in one-game playoff to make playoffs if season ended today)

Cincinnati 20-22  7.5 (would miss playoffs if season ended today).

 

Pos	SD Padres	v. L	v. R	Plat	HR	SB	OPS
CF	Fernando Tatis Jr.	1	1	13/NA	27-33	AA	0.826
RF	Ramón Laureano	2		87/11	25-27	B	0.722
3b	Manny Machado	3	3	NA/NA	32-35	B	0.825
LF	Ryan O'Hearn	4	4	12'/NA	31-34	C	0.826
DH	Luis Arraez	5	5	11/NA		D	0.736
1b	Jake Cronenworth	6	6	13/88	26-27	D	0.728
ss	Jose Iglesias	7		86/11	33	D	0.669
C	Freddy Fermin	8		88/NA	28	D	0.675
SS	Jackson Merrill	9	2	13/88	32-35	B	0.788
2b	Xander Bogaerts		7	11/NA	31-32	B	0.724
RF	Gavin Sheets		8	11/NA	25-27	D	0.704
C	Elias Díaz		9	11/NA	25-26	E	0.615
SS	Mason McCoy			-/-		C	0.522
C	Martin Maldonado			-/-		E	0.533
Pos	NY Mets	v. L	v. R	Plat	HR	SB	OPS
SS	Francisco Lindor	1	1	NA/NA	25-31	A	0.801
DH	Juan Soto	2	2	88/NA	23-27	D	0.946
1b	Pete Alonso	3	3	NA/NA	25-32	D	0.884
C	Francisco Álvarez	4	4	88/NA	27-33	D	0.784
CF	Brandon Nimmo	5	5	NA/NA	25-27	C	0.763
3b	Mark Vientos	6	6	NA/NA	24-28	E	0.759
RF	Jesse Winker	7	7	11/NA	24-25	C	0.739
LF	Starling Marte	8	8	87/11	32	A	0.719
2B	Jeff McNeil	9	9	11/NA	27-31	D	0.711
CF	Cedric Mullins			14/88	26-28	A	0.726
3b	Ronny Mauricio				27-28	B	0.678
cf	Hayden Senger			NA/11		E	0.564
ss	Luisangel Acuña			NA/11	31	A	0.630
RF	Tyrone Taylor			NA/NA	26-27	A	0.683
CF	Jose Siri			88/NA	21-24	A	0.687
C	Luis Torrens			NA/11	26-28	E	0.698
2b	Brett Baty			12'/NA	25-27	D	0.714
PB	SD Pitchers	IP	R	K	End	MaxIP	ERA
2'-8	Dylan Cease	6	1	23-44	14	6	3.48
2'-8	Robert Suarez	1	0	25-51	3	2	3.55
2'-8	Mason Miller	1	0	22-48	3	2	2.71
2'-9	Jason Adam	1	1	24-48	3	2	3.43
PB	NY Pitchers	IP	R	K	SR	MaxIP	ERA
2'-7	Sean Manaea	7	1	25-43	15	7	4.31
2'-9	Ryan Helsley	1	1	23-45	3	2	2.77

Grid of games to play and scoresheet.

Statis-Pro: Reds Playoffs Hope Fade in 3-2 Loss to Cubs

The 19-20 Cincinnati Reds, the only of our eight teams to make the interdivisional round who now have a losing record, host an almost must win game against the Cubs. The Cubs shocking sweep of the Statis-Pro leading Los Angeles Dodgers have a bit more breathing room at 22-17. Here are the starting line-ups and top seven relievers available for each team in the up-to-date Statis-Pro cards. 

The Cubs won 3-2 after the Reds failed to score despite having bases loaded no outs and fell to 20-22, three games behind the 6th and final playoff spot. Our league play started with 12 NL teams (three were relegated) to play against the other five teams in their division and one AL team.

The top 4 teams in each division then advance to play the top 4 in the other division, and those are the 8 teams on the grid, and when two teams play the score is put in large bold type in the box, but until then the table shows the pitching match-up for when they do play. A * means the winning team is credited for 3 wins and no losses, but if there is no * it means we gave 2 wins to the winner and 1 to the loser for a game within 4 runs. San Diego really needs a win against the New York Mets next, as a loss would put them 1 game behind both Philadelphia and Atlanta and just out of the playoffs if the season ended today.

Pos	Chicago Cubs	HR	SB	OPS
CF	Pete Crow-Armstrong	26-33	AAA	0.825
RF	Kyle Tucker	27-32	AA	0.871
DH	Seiya Suzuki	26-31	C	0.809
LF	Ian Happ	25-27	C	0.774
3b	Michael Busch	24-27	D	0.773
SS	Dansby Swanson	26-28	B	0.728
2b	Nico Hoerner	34	A	0.721
C	Miguel Amaya	26-27	E	0.715
1b	Jon Berti	28	A	0.673
PB	Starter, 7 relievers	K	Max IP	ERA
2'-7	Jameson Taillon	26-41	7	4.17
2'-8	Drew Pomeranz	25-41	1	2.62
2'-7	Ryan Brasier	25-41	1	3.48
2'-7	Caleb Thielbar	24-44	1	3.71
2'-7	Porter Hodge	23-42	2	3.97
4'-7	Colin Rea	26-41	7	4.44
4'-7	Taylor Rogers	25-46	1	4.56
4'-7	Daniel Palencia	25-41	2	3.88
Pos	Cincinnati Reds	HR	SB	OPS
ss	Elly De La Cruz	31-34	AAA	0.844
1b	Christian Encarnacion-Strand	27-32	D	0.791
3B	Noelvi Marte	27-31	B	0.676
lf	Austin Hays	27-32	D	0.754
CF	TJ Friedl	26	B	0.717
C	Jose Trevino	27	E	0.644
DH	Spencer Steer	25-26	B	0.759
RF	Jake Fraley	27	A	0.702
2b	Matt McLain	25-27	B	0.799
PB	Starter, 7 relievers	WP	Max IP	ERA
2'-8	Nick Martinez	26-42	6	3.53
2'-7	Nick Lodolo	25-41	5	3.80
4'-7	Graham Ashcraft	26-41	7	4.73
4'-7	Brady Singer	26-44	7	4.77
4'-7	Scott Barlow	24-45	1	4.06
4'-7	Tony Santillan	24-43	2	4.48
4'-7	Emilio Pagán	25-43	1	4.62

Results to follow.

25 New Statis-Pro baseball cards with ERA and OPS this Season

Heading down the stretch in our Statis-Pro baseball game, we took the few hundred most valuable players over the past month of play at Razzball and found 25 that did not have Statis-Pro cards. You can always add a temporary Statis-Pro card based on a players ERA or OPS. We are adding these 25 cards to the game. 

Pos	Player	Team	OPS or ERA
2B/SS/ 3B	Blaze Alexander	ARI	.751 - HR 26-31
C/1B/ OF	David Fry	CLE	.573 - 3b on 25
OF	Sam Haggerty	TEX	.698 - HR 26-27
3B	Brady House	WSH	.580 - 3b on 25
C	Alex Jackson	BAL	.822 (77 AB) - HR 26-31
OF	Jeremiah Jackson	BAL	.825 - HR 26-32
2B	Luke Keaschall	MIN	.895 - HR 26-33
OF	Jakob Marsee	MIA	.962 - HR 26-33
C	James McCann	ARI	.733 - HR 26-28
SS/3B	Colson Montgomery	CHW	.848 - HR 26-32
C	Dalton Rushing	LAD	.551 - 3b on 25
SP	Jason Alexander	HOU	4.68 - PB 2-6
RP	Clayton Beeter	WSH	4.82 - PB 2-5
RP	John Curtiss	ARI	3.41 - PB 2-7
RP	Jose Fermin	LAA	4.82 - PB 2-5
SP	Yoendrys Gomez	CHW	4.79 - PB 2-5
RP	Wikelman Gonzalez	CHW	1.62 (16 IP) - PB 2-7
SP	Stephen Kolek	KC	3.88 - PB 4-7
SP	Troy Melton	DET	2.38 (34 IP) - PB 2-7
SP	Luis Morales	ATH	2.73 (33 IP) - PB 2-7
RP	Tommy Nance	TOR	1.57 (23 IP) - PB 2-7
SP	Jack Perkins	ATH	4.19 - PB 4-7
RP	PJ Poulin	WSH	1.56 (17 IP) - PB 2-7
RP	Andrew Saalfrank	ARI	1.11 (24 IP) - PB 2-7
RP	Jake Woodford	ARI	4.64 - PB 2-6

The chart below is used to put a quick temporary card with a team for a new player based just based on the OPS for batters or ERA for pitchers. However, if a pitcher has fewer than 50 innings pitched the best PB he can have is 2-7, and if a batter has fewer than 100 at bats then the biggest home run range they can have is 26-31.

We placed these 25 players on their teams but in purple so they stand out as new cards on this link to all player cards. For example, here is Miami. As you can see, Jacob Marsee has the best temp card a batter can get, so he is at No. 3 in the order right now and perhaps play DH to bounce Derek Hill out of the line-up.

Statis-Pro Cubs Stun Dodgers 10-1 After Kershaw Leaves Early on Z-Play

The Chicago Cubs reset the playoff picture by stunning the Statis-Pro League Leading Los Angeles Dodgers 10-1 to move into a solid 4th seed if the playoffs started today. 

Two Statis-Pro keys to the game. We still use our 1978 Z-Play chart that allows the unusual plays to happen once or so a game. In the second inning we had a huge one when Clayton Kershaw had and unusual two walks in three batters, and under the rare Z-Play he was ejected for arguing balls and strikes. Certainly very unlikely an umpire would throw out one of the most revered athletes in the country, but we play the result of the Z-play so could just as easily call it an injury that forces Kershaw out of the game, but the point is the game does force you to sometimes use replacement players and this happened in this game. 

The Dodgers have so many PB 2-8 relievers that they were able to keep a PB 2-8 in the game the rest of the way, and still the Cubs exploded for a 10-1 win. Under our rules, that counts as a 3-game sweep. A key on the pitching side for the Cubs was that Cade Horton qualified for an extra card and as a PB 2-8 temporary card. 

While he didn't pitch in this game, it let us insert him into the rotation which moved Colin Rea from the forth starter to relief. All-Star Matthew Boyd was dominant as usual but can only pitch a maximum of five innings, so Rea took over in the 6th and 7th. Highlights for key players, the tattered Z-play cart from 1978, pictures of the two teams player cards, and the updated playoff pictures and grid of final inter division match-ups appear below.

Pos	LAD	HR	SB	OPS	Notes from Game
DH	Shohei Ohtani	23-31	AA	0.993	1b, sb, r
cf	Mookie Betts	27-32	B	0.885	1b, sb, rbi
1b	Freddie Freeman	33-34	D	0.847
C	Will Smith	31-33	D	0.913
RF	Teoscar Hernández	26-32	C	0.799
2b	Hyeseong Kim	27-31	A	0.768
lf	Andy Pages	24-27	E	0.751
3b	Max Muncy	17-22	D	0.761
SS	Miguel Rojas	28-28	C	0.653
PB	Los Angeles Dodgers	K	MaxIP	ERA	Notes
2'-8	Clayton Kershaw	26-46	6	3.89	1.7 IP, 2 ER Edj
2'-8	Shohei Ohtani	25-41	2	3.75
2'-8	Kirby Yates	22-44	1	3.46	0.7 IP, 4 ER
2'-8	Blake Treinen	24-44	1	3.33
2'-8	Alex Vesia	22-45	1	3.18	1 ip, 1 r
2'-8	Evan Phillips	23-44	1	3.12	1 ip, 1 r
2'-8	Ben Casparius	25-41	3	2.9	0.7 ip, 2 r
2'-8	Brock Stewart	25-41	2	3.23
2'-9	Tanner Scott	22-44	1	3.08
Pos	CHC 11'-26 =Wrigley Field	HR	SB	OPS	Notes
CF	Pete Crow-Armstrong	26-33	AAA	0.825	HR
RF	Kyle Tucker	27-32	AA	0.871
DH	Seiya Suzuki	26-31	C	0.809
LF	Ian Happ	25-27	C	0.774
3b	Michael Busch	24-27	D	0.773	4 walks, 3 runs
SS	Dansby Swanson	26-28	B	0.728
2b	Nico Hoerner	34	A	0.721	rbi-2b, rbi-1b
1b	Willi Castro	27	B	0.716	hit 1st
1b	Jon Berti	28	A	0.673	def replacement
C	Carson Kelly	24-25	D	0.674	3 h, HR, 4 rbi
PB	Chicago Cubs / NL Central	K	MaxIP	ERA	Notes
2'-8	Matthew Boyd	25-47	5	3.93	5 ip, 1 r W
4'-7	Colin Rea	26-41	7	4.44	2 ip, 0 r
2'-7	Caleb Thielbar	24-44	2	3.71	1 ip, 0 r
2'-8	Drew Pomeranz	25-41	1	2.62	1 ip, 0 r

Here are the scoresheets.

1 Statis-Pro No Hitter and 20,600 Unique Visitors this Week

Luis Castillo has thrown a Statis-Pro no hitter in our American League play, which is being played in Montana this year while I play the NL in Milwaukee. Here is the box score, followed by links to all players in the box score, and finally the tracking of the 20,600 unique visitors to this blog in the past week. You can pull up the free game and all 2025 players at this link.

Also further down the Phillies win a wild 9-7 win over the Reds.

 

Seattle Line-up Links	KC Line-up links
Victor Robles	Michael Massey
Julio Rodríguez	Bobby Witt Jr.
Jorge Polanco	Salvador Perez
Eugenio Suárez	Randal Grichuk
Cal Raleigh	Mike Yastrzemski
Donovan Solano	Mark Canha
Randy Arozarena	Vinnie Pasquantino
Dylan Moore	Jac Caglianone
Mitch Garver	Maikel Garcia
Pitcher link (the star!)	Pitcher links
Luis Castillo	Cole Ragans
	John Schreiber
	Carlos Estévez
	Sam Long

Meanwhile in the NL battle of the two .500 teams just out of the playoffs, Philadelphia beat Cincinnati 9-7 (almost as wild as their actual 10-8 win over Milwaukee the same day).

It does give the Phillies a chance as they catch Atlanta at 23-22 with one game left, but its still uphill. The Phils need to do better against the Dodgers than the Braves do against the Cubs in the finale for both since the Braves have the head to head.

Statis-pro Brewers Sweep Braves - 2nd in NL and Over 3-year Win Total

 The Braves pulled off a 3-0 win against the Phillies in our game between the one team playing much better in Statis-pro vs the team playing much worse.

The Statis-pro Atlanta Braves beat the Phillies 3-0 to temporarily move into 4th place at 23-19. However, the Brewers then destroyed the Braves 7-1 to get credit for a 3-game sweep and drop the Braves to 23-22 to cling to the last of 6 playoff spots just a half game ahead of the Reds and Phillies who are both .500.

As the standings and remaining matchups show at the bottom, the Braves still have a good shot at our playoffs with Strider going against the Cubs, while all 4 NL East teams still need to play the league leading Dodgers.

While the Braves 6th place standing is better than this season, it is worse than their record over the past 3 years where they have the 4th beat NL record with 255 wins behind the Dodgers 276, Brewers 270, and Phillies 264. Here are where the teams rank in Statis-pro vs where they rank over the last 3 years in actual MLB record.

Statis-pro.	statis-pro rank	wins last 3 years
Los Angeles Dodgers	1	1	276 wins
Milwaukee Brewers	2	2	270
New York Mets	3	8	237, much better in statis-pro
Atlanta Braves	6	4	255
Chicago Cubs	4	6	244
San Diego Padres	5	5	251
Philadelphia Phillies	7	3	264, much better in MLB
Cincinnati Reds	8	9	228
San Francisco Giants	9	10	227
St. Louis Cardinals	10	11	222
Pittsburgh Pirates	11	12	213
Arizona Diamondbacks	12	7	241, much better in MLB
Miami Marlins	13	13	211
Washington Nationals	14	14	195
Colorado Rockies	15	15	159

Our Statis-pro 2025 projected cards often yield seasons with results somewhere between the current season and the current season. When a player's OPS changes more than 100 points or ERA makes a huge change from what was projected we do make adjustments to those cards, but only halfway to leave the adjusted card halfway between the projected stats and actual current season.

This year is no exception, while the Braves are much worse this year, they enter our next game against the Brewers with the 4th best record (255 wins) in our Statis-pro league and their combined record over this and the past 2 seasons is also 4th.

In fact 12 of our 15 teams have the same or are just one off of their 3-year rank through tonight's games. The Mets are the one team playing much better in Statis-pro while the Phillies and Diamondbacks are the only two playing much worse in Statis-pro.

Here are the scoresheets from the Braves 3-0 win over the Phillies.