Saturday, October 12, 2024

NL Statis-Pro Season Wrap, Dodgers and Guardians Advance in Statis-Pro and Real MLB

The Statis-Pro National League regular season came to an exciting conclusion. Playing the injury-free "what if" format the Dodgers dominated the 48-game Statis-pro season at 33-15, and they join the Cleveland Guardians as the two teams alive in both the real MLB playoffs and Statis-pro.

However Arizona was eliminated the last day of the actual season but in Statis-pro defeated Cincinnati on the final day to take the last wildcard spot.

Atlanta, the second most injured team behind the Dodgers according to Fangraphs, got past Milwaukee in the last game to take the NL “East”.

The regular season MVP goes to Shohei Ohtani, and the legend kept growing as he just went 3 for 4 with a homer to even their playoff series with Arizona (see below).

He hit for a .311 avg (7th), 15 HR (3rd), 50 RBI (1st), 1.057 OPS (1st), .658 Slugging (2nd), 17 2B’s (2nd),19 2-out RBI (3rd), 125 total bases (2nd). See all the leaders' lists in the previous blog.

The Cy Young award goes to Zack Wheeler, who will next face the runner up for the Cy Young Strider in the other NL Statis-pro series.

In 12 starts, he posted a 10-0, 2.44 ERA, he led the league with 81 innings pitched. 0.87 WHIP (1st), Strikeout/Walk ratio 100/11 (2nd), Batting Avg Against .199 (4th)

NL “East”

Atlanta               29-19

Milwaukee        28-20

Philadelphia     26-22

Chicago             23-25

Miami                 15-33

 

NL “West”

Los Angeles      33-15

San Diego          26-22

Arizona               25-23

Cincinnati         24-24

San Francisco  21-27

 

Wildcard

Milwaukee        28-20

Philadelphia     26-22

San Diego          26-22

Arizona               25-23

Cincinnati         24-24

Chicago             23-25

San Francisco  21-27

 

The playoffs have started!

 

Wildcard (best of 5)

Arizona sweeps out the Brewers in three straight.

The Diamondbacks led the league in 2-out RBI’s and that continued in this series.

They scored 14-runs in three games and eight of them came with two outs.

Arizona pitching shut down Milwaukee allowing just four runs in three games.

 

Phillies advance past pivotal game five

The two hottest teams down the stretch the Phillies and Padres went the distance in the best of five.

Zack Wheeler followed up his great regular season with two amazing starts going eight innings in each and only allowing three runs total. (16 IP/3 ER)

He wins game one and game five while Nick Castellanos drove in seven runs during the five games.

 

NLDS (Best of 7) - Arizona vs. Los Angeles

Arizona’s pitching continued to cause trouble in game one, shutting down the vaunted Dodger offense for a 6-1 win.

Jordan Montgomery pitched six strong innings to lead the way.

In game two, the Diamondbacks built a 3-0 lead, but the Dodger offense finally got going and erupted for a six-run fifth inning and rolled to an 8-4 win.

Shohei Ohtani went 3-4 with a HR.  The series is tied 1-1 and shifts to Arizona.

 Philadelphia vs. Atlanta

The Braves showed no signs of rust as they crushed the Phillies 11-3 in the series opener. Austin Riley went 2-5 with a HR and 4 RBI’s. Max Fried was solid in pitching six innings to get the win. Game two will feature the pitching matchup of the year as Zack Wheeler will face Spencer Strider, the top two in the Cy Young Race. Wheeler 10-0, 2.44 vs. Strider 9-2, 2.54.

 

Since we played our season without injury - using the Statis-Pro cards of players even if they were on DL etc., you would expect teams in Statis-Pro to play closer to how many games they would have won if they had only an average number of injuries.

This FanGraphs piece calculated the number of wins a team likely lost due to injury (based on the WAR of players in games they missed. 

We then used that figure to adjust each teams record. Keep in mind the average team loses about 6 games a year due to injuries, so if a team only lost 3 games due to injuries they actually were fairly lucky and we would adjust their wins DOWN by 3 to say if they had average injuries they would have lost three more games - whereas if they lost 9 games to injuries then we would have said they were hard hit by injuries and would have won three more games.

The LA Dodgers were by far the most hurt by injuries of all teams, enough to take 14 wins from them, so while it is true this is one of the biggest seasons of parity in MLB history - if no team had any injury (or all teams had average injuries) we would have expected the Dodgers to be 11 games better than any other team in baseball and go 106-58. Therefore it is no surprised they dominated the Statis-Pro season with no injuries to go 33-15. 

In Statis-Pro their 33-15 mark was a 0.688 winning percentage. If all teams had equal injuries we would have expected them to go 106-58 for a 0.654 winning percentage, and if they had no injuries we would have expected 112-52 for a 0.691 winning percentage - basically the same as they had in Statis Pro.

Inj Adj   Est. Wins if Average Injuries     Average Inj          Act WAct LAct Win%
1Los Angeles Dodgers106 98640.605
2New York Yankees95 94680.580
3Milwaukee Brewers95 93690.574
4Philadelphia Phillies93 95670.586
5San Diego Padres93 93690.574
6Atlanta Braves93 89730.549
7Cleveland Guardians92 92690.571
8Baltimore Orioles90 91710.562
9Arizona Diamondbacks90 89730.549
10Houston Astros90 88730.547
11New York Mets88 89730.549
12Boston Red Sox84 81810.500
13Detroit Tigers83 86760.531
14Seattle Mariners83 85770.525
15Chicago Cubs83 83790.512
16Kansas City Royals82 86760.531
17Tampa Bay Rays82 80820.494
18St. Louis Cardinals81 83790.512
19Minnesota Twins81 82800.506
20San Francisco Giants80 80820.494
21Texas Rangers78 78840.481
22Cincinnati Reds77 77850.475
23Pittsburgh Pirates76 76860.469
24Toronto Blue Jays71 74880.457
25Oakland Athletics69 69930.426
26Washington Nationals68 71910.438
27Miami Marlins65 621000.383
28Los Angeles Angels61 63990.389
29Colorado Rockies59 611010.377
30Chicago White Sox41 411210.253



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