Projecting the JUCOs and NBA Stars based on NBADraft.net and JUCORecruiting.com

While the vast majority of the projections at www.valueaddbasketball.com are based on the normal improvement of players based on their class and rankings from the previous year, I follow Bill James in the belief that you can account for the opinions of experts as well. Noone knows the NBA prospects better than Aran Smith, or the Junior College players better than Brad Wilton.

Players who Aran Smith (NBADraft.net) says are top 20 prospects average about a 9.24 ValueAdd, the rest of the players he in the top 20 will average being about a point worse, etc. all the way down the chart to the ones he lists as an honorable mention in class rankings might be worth as little as 2 points a game in college. I use his rankings in my projections to create an "alternate minimum" projection. If a players Value Add was only 1.0 in a terrible freshman year, but he is a top 30 prospect according to Aron, then I give him 70% of the average or a 5.1 projection. In most cases the player's projection is already higher than the minimum listed and they just keep their ranking.

Top 10, 20 etc NBA Prospects	Average ValueAdd	Alternative Min. Proj
10	9.24	6.5
20	8.24	5.8
30	7.26	5.1
40	6.84	4.8
50	6.32	4.4
60	5.55	3.9
70	5.36	3.8
80	5.13	3.6
90	5.08	3.6
100	4.96	3.5
110	4.89	3.4
120	4.73	3.3
130	4.69	3.3
140	4.48	3.1
150	4.42	3.1
160	4.41	3.1
170	4.14	2.9
180	4.04	2.8
190	2.82	2.0
200	2.01	1.4

Likewise, the six JUCO players Brad Wilton ranks as the best can routinely give teams a Value Add of 4.0 to 6.5, or occasionally you even get an All-American like Jae Crowder. Below are ratings I assign the players he says are the best of the 2019 JUCOs, though I admit I sometimes am unclear if there is a way to tell what player might not be available until next season.

Name	Team	Value Add 5	Notes	Ht
Chris Duarte	Oregon	6.5	JUCO CG Northwest Florida State	6'6
Gaige Prim	Missouri State	6	JUCO PF South Plains College	6'9
Cam Mack	Nebraska	5.5	JUCO PG Salt Lake CC	6'2
Charles Manning Jr	LSU	5	JUCO G Florida Southwestern State	6'5
James Rojas	Alabama	4.5	JUCO PF Hutchinson CC	6'7
Khadim Sy	Ole Miss	4.01	JUCO PF Daytona State	6'10
Tyson Jolly	SMU	3.82	JUCO SF Trinity Valley CC	6'4
Jervay Green	Nebraska	3.75	JUCO CG Western Nebraska CC	6'3
Tomas Woldetensae	Virginia	3.59	JUCO G Indian Hills CC	6'5
Trey Wade	Wichita State	3.47	JUCO G/F South Plains College	6'7
Andre Allen	Arizona State	3.34	JUCO F Arizona Western CC	6'9
Javonte Perkins	Saint Louis	3.19	JUCO SF Southwestern Illinois College	6'6
Tajzmel Sherman	West Virginia	3.06	JUCO CG Collin County CC	6'4
Galen Alexander	Georgetown	2.94	JUCO F Jones County CC	6'6
Brandon Rachal	Tulsa	2.82	JUCO G Pearl River CC	6'6
Bryce Williams	Ole Miss	2.71	JUCO CG Daytona State	6'3
Javion Hamlet	North Texas	2.55	JUCO PG Northwest Florida State	6'3
Javon Franklin	Auburn	2.45	JUCO PF Holmes CC	6'7
Wilfried Likayi	New Mexico State	2.36	JUCO F Casper College	6'9
Alonzo Verge	Arizona State	2.2	JUCO PG Moberly Area CC	6'3
Eric Parrish	Nevada	2.11	JUCO G Bossier Parish CC	6'7
Quenton Jackson	Texas A&M	2.02	JUCO SG College of Central Florida	6'5
Khalid Thomas	Arizona State	1.95	JUCO F College of Southern Idaho	6'9
David Nickleberry	Buffalo	1.87	JUCO G/F Trinity Valley CC	6'7
Marvin Johnson	Eastern Illinois	1.74	JUCO SF Coffeyville CC	6'6
David Sloan	Kansas State	1.57	JUCO PG John A Logan College	6'1
Keishawn Brewton	Coastal Carolina	1.51	JUCO CG Chipola College	6'3
Xaiver Armstead	Louisiana Tech	1.43	JUCO G McLennan College	6'5
JJ Miles	East Carolina	1.36	JUCO SF Cape Fear CC	6'7
Alondes Williams	Oklahoma	1.33	JUCO G Triton College	6'5
Emmanuel Ugboh	Tulsa	1.29	JUCO C Iowa Western CC	6'11
James Reese	North Texas	1.26	JUCO SG Odessa College	6'4
Lony Francis Jr	Arkansas State	1.22	JUCO PF Vincennes University	6'7
Malik Curry	Old Dominion	1.19	JUCO PG Palm Beach State	6'2
Atticus Taylor	NC State	1.15	JUCO G/F Southwest Mississippi CC	6'7
Yeikson Montero	Eastern Michigan	1.14	JUCO SG Pensacola State	6'5
Trey Pulliam	San Diego State	1.11	JUCO G Navarro College	6'3
James Jean-Marie	San Diego	1.07	JUCO SF Navarro College	6'7
Emmanuel Bandoumel	SMU	1.06	JUCO G Hill College	6'4
Ruot Monyyong	Arkansas Little Rock	1.04	JUCO PF Shelton State	6'11
Ronne Readus	Cal State Bakersfield	1	JUCO C Fullerton College	6'9
AJ Bramah	Robert Morris	1	JUCO SF Sheridan College	6'7
Nathanael Jack	Florida State	0.97	JUCO SG Eastern Florida State	6'5
Roberto Gittens	UC Santa Barbara	0.95	JUCO SG College of Southern Idaho	6'5
Ryan Murphy	Pitt	0.93	JUCO SG New Mexico JC	6'2
DJ Russell	Robert Morris	0.91	JUCO PF Miami Dade College	6'7
RayQuan Evans	Florida State	0.89	JUCO G North Idaho College	6'4
Luka Barisic	UTSA	0.86	JUCO F Highland CC	6'9
Rich Washington	San Jose St	0.83	JUCO SF Tallahassee CC	6'6
Maddox Daniels	Colorado	0.81	JUCO SG Florida Southwestern State	6'6
Trevion Lamar	Georgia Southern	0.79	JUCO G/F Northern Oklahoma Tonkawa	6'5
Donte Tatum	Samford	0.77	JUCO PG Cape Fear CC	6'2
Tyrie Jackson	East Carolina	0.74	JUCO CG Northwest Florida State	6'2
Shakem Johnson	Tennessee State	0.72	JUCO PF Navarro College	6'7
Eric Vila	UTEP	0.72	JUCO PF Northwest Florida State	6'10
Keith Clemons	Loyola Chicago	0.71	JUCO CG Vincennes University	6'1
Eric Lovett	FIU	0.7	JUCO SG Missouri West Plains	6'4
Isaac Bonton	Washington State	0.68	JUCO CG Casper College	6'3
Bitumba Baruti	East Carolina	0.64	JUCO F Chipola College	6'6
Kimani Binder	Portland State	0.62	JUCO SG Indian River State	6'3
Sebit Reath		0.6	JUCO PF Lee College	6'10
Deang Deang	Eastern Illinois	0.56	JUCO CG Highland CC	6'4
Doudou Gueye	LA Lafayete	0.53	JUCO SF/PF Daytona State	6'8
Sean McNeil	West Virginia	0.5	JUCO SG Sinclair CC	6'4
Anyeuri Castillo	Kent State	0.46	JUCO PF Central Georgia Tech	6'7
Isiah Small	Texas State	0.43	JUCO SF Seward County CC	6'8
Jeremy Sheppard	Rhode Island	0.39	JUCO SG College of Central Florida	6'2
Jalen Warren	FGCU	0.34	JUCO PG Eastern Florida State	6'2
Malcolm Johnson	UC Davis	0.31	JUCO G/F City College of San Francisco	6'5
Cameron Johnson	Stephen F Austin	0.28	JUCO G Tyler JC	6'3
Sean Miller-Moore	Oregon State	0.26	JUCO SF Moberly Area CC	6'5
Jonah Antonio	UNLV	0.22	JUCO SG South Plains College	6'4
Daron Henson	Washington State	0.2	JUCO PF Salt Lake CC	6'8
Alfonso Plummer	Utah	0.2	JUCO CG Arizona Western CC	6'1
Jalon Pipkins	Loyola Chicago	0.2	JUCO G Paris JC	6'4
Kayne Henry	Jacksonville State	0.2	JUCO SF Northwest Florida State	6'7
Avery Diggs	UCF	0.2	JUCO C Southwest Mississippi	6'11
Gavin Kensmil	Stephen F Austin	0.2	JUCO F Navarro College	6'7
Alsean Evans	Arkansas Little Rock	0.2	JUCO SF Polk State	6'6
Martin Roub	Jacksonville State	0.2	JUCO PF/C Western Nebraska CC	6'11
Cam Reece	Akron	0.2	JUCO PF/C Sheridan College	6'6
Demarkus Lampley	Sam Houston State	0.2	JUCO SG Wallace State Hanceville	6'3
Torrey Patton		0.2	JUCO G Indian Hills CC	6'4
Kevin Norman	Jacksonville	0.2	JUCO Wing Angelina College	6'4
Jaren English	St Bonaventure	0.2	JUCO Wing Ranger College	6'4
Demiere Brown	Stephen F Austin	0.2	JUCO PF  Kilgore College	6'7
Lenell Henry	Coastal Carolina	0.2	JUCO PF Panola College	6'7
Caleb Coleman		0.2	JUCO SF State Fair CC	6'5
Jubrile Belo	Montana State	0.2	JUCO PF Lamar CC	6'9
Solomon Hunt	Chicago State	0.2	JUCO PF East Los Angeles	6'8
Chris Orlina	McNeese State	0.2	JUCO SF South Plains College	6'6
Tariq Simmons	South Carolina State	0.2	JUCO PG Panola College	6'1
Kassim Nicholson	UAB	0.2	JUCO G/F Holmes CC	6'6
Shawn Stith	Cal State Bakersfield	0.2	JUCO PF Saddleback College	6'7
Damien Sears	St Johns	0.2	JUCO PF Western OK State	6'7
Keiodre Perry	Jacksonville State	0.2	JUCO SG Northern Oklahoma Tonkawa	6'4
Roti Ware	Stephen F Austin	0.2	JUCO G East Central CC	6'3
AJ McNeil	Iona	0.2	JUCO G Redlands CC	6'0
Jamir Thomas	Youngstown State	0.2	JUCO PF Garden City CC	6'8
Edra Luster	East Carolina	0.2	JUCO F/C Tyler JC	6'11
Adham Eleeda	Northern Kentucky	0.1	JUCO SG Sheridan College	6'4
AJ Cox		0.1	JUCO G Southeastern CC	6'2
Alex Morales	Wagner	0.1	JUCO Wing Prince George's CC	6'5
Blake Furcron	FIU	0.1	JUCO G Pratt CC	6'5
Cedric Brim	North Alabama	0.1	JUCO PG Pearl River CC	5'10
Chance Hunter	Long Beach Satte	0.1	JUCO G Cerritos College	6'6
Chris Freeman	UTRGV	0.1	JUCO SG Northwest Kansas Tech	6'6
DeMierre Black	IPFW	0.1	JUCO SG Roane State	6'3
Devale Johnson		0.1	JUCO F Williston State	6'7
Dru Kuxhausen	McNeese State	0.1	JUCO G Western Nebraska CC	6'2
Durey Caldwell	Louisiana Lafayette	0.1	JUCO SG Daytona State	6'5
Dyshane Murphy	Montevallo (D2)	0.1	JUCO PG USC Salkehatchie	5'11
Ellis Jefferson	Lamar	0.1	JUCO CG Clarendon College	6'2
Iziah James	SIU Edwardsville	0.1	JUCO PG Indian Hills CC	6'0
Jalin Wimberly	Purdue Fort Wayne	0.1	JUCO SF Andrew	6'4
Khalyl Waters	Troy	0.1	JUCO SF Georgia Highlands College	6'6
Matt Johnson	St Bonaventure	0.1	JUCO G Howard College	6'4
Miles Thomas	UT Martin	0.1	JUCO F Walters State	6'6
Parker Dortch	Loyola Marymount	0.1	JUCO F Kaskaskia CC	6'7
Ravel Moody	Tennessee State	0.1	JUCO F Northeastern Oklahoma A&M	6'6
Sita Conteh	UTRGV	0.1	JUCO F Williston State	6'8
Terryonte Thomas	Sam Houston State	0.1	JUCO G/F East Mississippi CC	6'4
Thomas Binelli	Eastern Michigan	0.1	JUCO F Monroe College	6'8
Tray Buchanan	South Dakota State	0.1	JUCO G Des Moines Area CC	6'1
Wesley Harris	UC Davis	0.1	JUCO F Otero JC	6'6