Saturday, October 5, 2019

Projecting the JUCOs and NBA Stars based on and

While the vast majority of the projections at are based on the normal improvement of players based on their class and rankings from the previous year, I follow Bill James in the belief that you can account for the opinions of experts as well. Noone knows the NBA prospects better than Aran Smith, or the Junior College players better than Brad Wilton.

Players who Aran Smith ( says are top 20 prospects average about a 9.24 ValueAdd, the rest of the players he in the top 20 will average being about a point worse, etc. all the way down the chart to the ones he lists as an honorable mention in class rankings might be worth as little as 2 points a game in college. I use his rankings in my projections to create an "alternate minimum" projection. If a players Value Add was only 1.0 in a terrible freshman year, but he is a top 30 prospect according to Aron, then I give him 70% of the average or a 5.1 projection. In most cases the player's projection is already higher than the minimum listed and they just keep their ranking.

Top 10, 20 etc NBA ProspectsAverage ValueAddAlternative Min. Proj

Likewise, the six JUCO players Brad Wilton ranks as the best can routinely give teams a Value Add of 4.0 to 6.5, or occasionally you even get an All-American like Jae Crowder. Below are ratings I assign the players he says are the best of the 2019 JUCOs, though I admit I sometimes am unclear if there is a way to tell what player might not be available until next season.

NameTeamValue Add 5NotesHt
Chris DuarteOregon6.5JUCO CG Northwest Florida State6'6
Gaige PrimMissouri State6JUCO PF South Plains College6'9
Cam MackNebraska5.5JUCO PG Salt Lake CC6'2
Charles Manning JrLSU5JUCO G Florida Southwestern State6'5
James RojasAlabama4.5JUCO PF Hutchinson CC6'7
Khadim SyOle Miss4.01JUCO PF Daytona State6'10
Tyson Jolly SMU3.82JUCO SF Trinity Valley CC6'4
Jervay GreenNebraska3.75JUCO CG Western Nebraska CC6'3
Tomas Woldetensae Virginia3.59JUCO G Indian Hills CC6'5
Trey WadeWichita State3.47JUCO G/F South Plains College6'7
Andre AllenArizona State3.34JUCO F Arizona Western CC6'9
Javonte PerkinsSaint Louis3.19JUCO SF Southwestern Illinois College6'6
Tajzmel ShermanWest Virginia3.06JUCO CG Collin County CC6'4
Galen AlexanderGeorgetown2.94JUCO F Jones County CC6'6
Brandon RachalTulsa2.82JUCO G Pearl River CC6'6
Bryce WilliamsOle Miss2.71JUCO CG Daytona State6'3
Javion HamletNorth Texas2.55JUCO PG Northwest Florida State6'3
Javon FranklinAuburn2.45JUCO PF Holmes CC6'7
Wilfried Likayi New Mexico State2.36JUCO F Casper College6'9
Alonzo VergeArizona State2.2JUCO PG Moberly Area CC6'3
Eric ParrishNevada2.11JUCO G Bossier Parish CC6'7
Quenton JacksonTexas A&M2.02JUCO SG College of Central Florida6'5
Khalid ThomasArizona State1.95JUCO F College of Southern Idaho6'9
David NickleberryBuffalo1.87JUCO G/F Trinity Valley CC6'7
Marvin JohnsonEastern Illinois1.74JUCO SF Coffeyville CC6'6
David SloanKansas State1.57JUCO PG John A Logan College6'1
Keishawn BrewtonCoastal Carolina1.51JUCO CG Chipola College6'3
Xaiver ArmsteadLouisiana Tech1.43JUCO G McLennan College6'5
JJ MilesEast Carolina1.36JUCO SF Cape Fear CC6'7
Alondes WilliamsOklahoma1.33JUCO G Triton College6'5
Emmanuel UgbohTulsa1.29JUCO C Iowa Western CC6'11
James ReeseNorth Texas1.26JUCO SG Odessa College6'4
Lony Francis JrArkansas State1.22JUCO PF Vincennes University6'7
Malik CurryOld Dominion1.19JUCO PG Palm Beach State6'2
Atticus TaylorNC State1.15JUCO G/F Southwest Mississippi CC6'7
Yeikson MonteroEastern Michigan1.14JUCO SG Pensacola State6'5
Trey PulliamSan Diego State1.11JUCO G Navarro College6'3
James Jean-MarieSan Diego1.07JUCO SF Navarro College6'7
Emmanuel BandoumelSMU1.06JUCO G Hill College6'4
Ruot MonyyongArkansas Little Rock1.04JUCO PF Shelton State6'11
Ronne ReadusCal State Bakersfield1JUCO C Fullerton College6'9
AJ BramahRobert Morris1JUCO SF Sheridan College6'7
Nathanael JackFlorida State0.97JUCO SG Eastern Florida State6'5
Roberto GittensUC Santa Barbara0.95JUCO SG College of Southern Idaho6'5
Ryan MurphyPitt0.93JUCO SG New Mexico JC6'2
DJ RussellRobert Morris0.91JUCO PF Miami Dade College6'7
RayQuan EvansFlorida State0.89JUCO G North Idaho College6'4
Luka BarisicUTSA0.86JUCO F Highland CC6'9
Rich WashingtonSan Jose St0.83JUCO SF Tallahassee CC6'6
Maddox DanielsColorado0.81JUCO SG Florida Southwestern State6'6
Trevion LamarGeorgia Southern0.79JUCO G/F Northern Oklahoma Tonkawa6'5
Donte TatumSamford0.77JUCO PG Cape Fear CC6'2
Tyrie JacksonEast Carolina0.74JUCO CG Northwest Florida State6'2
Shakem JohnsonTennessee State0.72JUCO PF Navarro College6'7
Eric VilaUTEP0.72JUCO PF Northwest Florida State6'10
Keith ClemonsLoyola Chicago0.71JUCO CG Vincennes University6'1
Eric LovettFIU0.7JUCO SG Missouri West Plains6'4
Isaac BontonWashington State0.68JUCO CG Casper College6'3
Bitumba BarutiEast Carolina0.64JUCO F Chipola College6'6
Kimani BinderPortland State0.62JUCO SG Indian River State6'3
Sebit Reath0.6JUCO PF Lee College6'10
Deang DeangEastern Illinois0.56JUCO CG Highland CC6'4
Doudou GueyeLA Lafayete0.53JUCO SF/PF Daytona State6'8
Sean McNeilWest Virginia0.5JUCO SG Sinclair CC6'4
Anyeuri CastilloKent State0.46JUCO PF Central Georgia Tech6'7
Isiah SmallTexas State0.43JUCO SF Seward County CC6'8
Jeremy SheppardRhode Island0.39JUCO SG College of Central Florida6'2
Jalen WarrenFGCU0.34JUCO PG Eastern Florida State6'2
Malcolm JohnsonUC Davis0.31JUCO G/F City College of San Francisco6'5
Cameron JohnsonStephen F Austin0.28JUCO G Tyler JC6'3
Sean Miller-MooreOregon State0.26JUCO SF Moberly Area CC6'5
Jonah AntonioUNLV0.22JUCO SG South Plains College6'4
Daron HensonWashington State0.2JUCO PF Salt Lake CC6'8
Alfonso PlummerUtah0.2JUCO CG Arizona Western CC6'1
Jalon PipkinsLoyola Chicago0.2JUCO G Paris JC6'4
Kayne HenryJacksonville State0.2JUCO SF Northwest Florida State6'7
Avery DiggsUCF0.2JUCO C Southwest Mississippi6'11
Gavin KensmilStephen F Austin0.2JUCO F Navarro College6'7
Alsean EvansArkansas Little Rock0.2JUCO SF Polk State6'6
Martin RoubJacksonville State0.2JUCO PF/C Western Nebraska CC6'11
Cam ReeceAkron0.2JUCO PF/C Sheridan College6'6
Demarkus LampleySam Houston State0.2JUCO SG Wallace State Hanceville6'3
Torrey Patton0.2JUCO G Indian Hills CC6'4
Kevin NormanJacksonville0.2JUCO Wing Angelina College6'4
Jaren EnglishSt Bonaventure0.2JUCO Wing Ranger College6'4
Demiere BrownStephen F Austin0.2JUCO PF  Kilgore College6'7
Lenell HenryCoastal Carolina0.2JUCO PF Panola College6'7
Caleb Coleman0.2JUCO SF State Fair CC6'5
Jubrile BeloMontana State0.2JUCO PF Lamar CC6'9
Solomon HuntChicago State0.2JUCO PF East Los Angeles6'8
Chris OrlinaMcNeese State0.2JUCO SF South Plains College6'6
Tariq SimmonsSouth Carolina State0.2JUCO PG Panola College6'1
Kassim NicholsonUAB0.2JUCO G/F Holmes CC6'6
Shawn Stith Cal State Bakersfield0.2JUCO PF Saddleback College6'7
Damien SearsSt Johns0.2JUCO PF Western OK State6'7
Keiodre PerryJacksonville State0.2JUCO SG Northern Oklahoma Tonkawa6'4
Roti WareStephen F Austin0.2JUCO G East Central CC6'3
AJ McNeil Iona0.2JUCO G Redlands CC6'0
Jamir ThomasYoungstown State0.2JUCO PF Garden City CC6'8
Edra LusterEast Carolina0.2JUCO F/C Tyler JC6'11
Adham EleedaNorthern Kentucky0.1JUCO SG Sheridan College6'4
AJ Cox0.1JUCO G Southeastern CC6'2
Alex MoralesWagner0.1JUCO Wing Prince George's CC6'5
Blake FurcronFIU0.1JUCO G Pratt CC6'5
Cedric BrimNorth Alabama0.1JUCO PG Pearl River CC5'10
Chance HunterLong Beach Satte0.1JUCO G Cerritos College6'6
Chris FreemanUTRGV0.1JUCO SG Northwest Kansas Tech6'6
DeMierre BlackIPFW0.1JUCO SG Roane State6'3
Devale Johnson0.1JUCO F Williston State6'7
Dru KuxhausenMcNeese State0.1JUCO G Western Nebraska CC6'2
Durey CaldwellLouisiana Lafayette0.1JUCO SG Daytona State6'5
Dyshane MurphyMontevallo (D2)0.1JUCO PG USC Salkehatchie5'11
Ellis JeffersonLamar0.1JUCO CG Clarendon College6'2
Iziah JamesSIU Edwardsville0.1JUCO PG Indian Hills CC6'0
Jalin WimberlyPurdue Fort Wayne0.1JUCO SF Andrew6'4
Khalyl WatersTroy0.1JUCO SF Georgia Highlands College6'6
Matt JohnsonSt Bonaventure0.1JUCO G Howard College6'4
Miles ThomasUT Martin0.1JUCO F Walters State6'6
Parker DortchLoyola Marymount0.1JUCO F Kaskaskia CC6'7
Ravel MoodyTennessee State0.1JUCO F Northeastern Oklahoma A&M6'6
Sita ContehUTRGV0.1JUCO F Williston State6'8
Terryonte ThomasSam Houston State0.1JUCO G/F East Mississippi CC6'4
Thomas BinelliEastern Michigan0.1JUCO F Monroe College6'8
Tray BuchananSouth Dakota State0.1JUCO G Des Moines Area CC6'1
Wesley HarrisUC Davis0.1JUCO F Otero JC6'6

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