Tuesday, October 2, 2018

Oct. 24: Democrats Project 219-215-1 Lead based on process using Sabato, NY Times, Silver

Here is the new table as of the evening of October 24, but I left the October 12 table below for comparison. The Republicans actually gained a few points overall in the New York Times the second set of polls but came out lower than two Nate Silver averages to drop slightly from a 1.4 point lead to an average 1.3 point lead. They lost three spots because New York Times polls gave the Democrats a 1-point lead in California 1, a tie in California 48 and a 2-point lead in Illinois 6. However, a huge 12-point shift in favor of the GOP in New Jersey 3 turned a 10-point deficit to a 2-point lead to leave them at 215 seats. 

Because one moved to a tie, the Democrats gain just one seat to end up with a 219-215 lead with one tie. If you count all 1-point races either way as ties, then the Democrats lead only 215-212 with eight ties determining the majority.

The New York Times Senate polls in Tennessee, Texas, Arizona, and Nevada all gave the GOP the edge to put them on pace for at least a 52-48 lead, however, their Florida poll so far gives the Democrats a big lead. The GOP led in 6 of 11 October polls before the NY Times, but the polls showing the Democrats pulling away are more recent and by bigger margins, so Florida is looking Democratic as of today and the GOP may need to win Missouri to get to 53 and Indians to get to 54 going through my poll outline in NewsMax.

StateCDGOP leadNum. ratingBased on
CA10-6DemocratNY Times Poll
CA252RepublicanNY Times Poll
CA39-1DemocratNY Times Pollflip Dem
CA45-5DemocratNY Times Poll
CA480TieNY Times Pollflip to tie
IA3-1DemocratNY Times Poll
IL6-2DemocratIncomplete NY TimesDropped by 3, flip
IL121RepublicanNY Times Poll
KS2-1DemocratNY Times Poll
KS3-8DemocratNY Times Poll
KY61RepublicanNY Times Poll
ME25RepublicanNY Times Poll
MI83RepublicanNY Times Poll
MN110RepublicanNate Silver
MN2-12DemocratNY Times Poll
MN815RepublicanNY Times Polldropped by 10
NC95RepublicanNY Times Poll
NJ32RepublicanIncomplete NY Timesplus 12, now GOP
NJ71RepublicanNY Times Poll
NM2-1DemocratNY Times Poll
NY19-3DemocratNate Silver
NY22-2DemocratNate Silver
OH19RepublicanNY Times Pollsame
PA1-7DemocratNY Times Pollplus 5
TX76RepublicanNY Times Pollplus 3
TX238RepublicanNY Times Poll
VA28RepublicanNY Times Poll
VA74RepublicanNY Times Poll
WV38RepublicanNY Times Poll
1.3Average GOPDems lead 218-216-1


October 12 update


So far the NY Times district-by-district polling of Sabato's toss-up districts is breaking the Republicans way and pointing to them losing only 218-217 in the House as of October 12 at 2:30 p.m. One example of the apparent across-the-board shift to Republicans from the Kavanaugh testimony to confirmation is GOP Lee Zeldin in New York. He was slightly behind, causing me to temporarily add that poll to the list below and give the Democrats a 219-216 lead, but voters steadily moved his way to such an extent that he fnished the poll nine points ahead.

October 11, 7:30 p.m. note - its dangerous to count incomplete polls, but based on the New York Times we flipped two seats. This switches PA-1 to Democrat (a -12 for Democrat up 12) and Minnesota-8 to Republicans (+25 so GOP up an incredible 25 points) to still leave the House 218 to 217 in favor of the Democrats.

I'm tracking the Senate here. The NY Times just got going on Senate polls, and the GOP had a double-digit lead in Tennessee and almost as big a lead in Texas.

The methodology we went with from day one was the same; 1) go with the Party Sabato forecasts as winning the race, 2) chance that only if the New York Times poll is run to pick (or in one case reverse) Sabato's projected winner, and if neither side has the edge through #1 and #2 then, 3, go to Nate Silver's projection and take the most current poll he records.


StateCDGOP leadNum. ratingBased on
CA10-2DemocratNate Silver
CA252RepublicanNY Times Poll
CA392RepublicanNate Silver
CA45-5DemocratNY Times Poll
CA483RepublicanNate Silver
IA3-1DemocratNY Times Poll
IL61RepublicanNY Times Poll
IL121RepublicanNY Times Poll
KS2-1DemocratNY Times Poll
KS3-10DemocratNY Times Poll
KY61RepublicanNY Times Poll
ME25RepublicanNY Times Poll
MI83RepublicanNY Times Poll
MN110RepublicanNate Silver
MN2-12DemocratNY Times Poll
MN825RepublicanIncomplete NY Times
NC95RepublicanNY Times Poll
NJ3-10DemocratNY Times Poll
NJ71RepublicanNY Times Poll
NM2-1DemocratNY Times Poll
NY19-3DemocratNate Silver
NY22-2DemocratNate Silver
OH19RepublicanNY Times Poll
PA1-12DemocratIncomplete NY Times
TX73RepublicanNY Times Poll
TX2316RepublicanNY Times Poll
VA28RepublicanNY Times Poll
VA74RepublicanNY Times Poll
WV36RepublicanNY Times Poll
1.4Average GOP

Of the 1 tied race and 6 unpolled race above, I went back and looked at the most recent adjusted poll on Nate Silver's page. In those races the GOP goes 5-2, losing only the two New York races, which would give the GOP a 218-217 win.
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