October 11, 7:30 p.m. note - its dangerous to count incomplete polls, but based on the New York Times we flipped two seats. This switches PA-1 to Democrat (a -12 for Democrat up 12) and Minnesota-8 to Republicans (+25 so GOP up an incredible 25 points) to still leave the House 218 to 217 in favor of the Democrats.
I'm tracking the Senate here. The NY Times just got going on Senate polls, and the GOP had a double-digit lead in Tennessee and almost as big a lead in Texas.
The methodology we went with from day one was the same; 1) go with the Party Sabato forecasts as winning the race, 2) chance that only if the New York Times poll is run to pick (or in one case reverse) Sabato's projected winner, and if neither side has the edge through #1 and #2 then, 3, go to Nate Silver's projection and take the most current poll he records.
|State||CD||GOP lead||Num. rating||Based on|
|CA||25||2||Republican||NY Times Poll|
|CA||45||-5||Democrat||NY Times Poll|
|IA||3||-1||Democrat||NY Times Poll|
|IL||6||1||Republican||NY Times Poll|
|IL||12||1||Republican||NY Times Poll|
|KS||2||-1||Democrat||NY Times Poll|
|KS||3||-10||Democrat||NY Times Poll|
|KY||6||1||Republican||NY Times Poll|
|ME||2||5||Republican||NY Times Poll|
|MI||8||3||Republican||NY Times Poll|
|MN||2||-12||Democrat||NY Times Poll|
|MN||8||25||Republican||Incomplete NY Times|
|NC||9||5||Republican||NY Times Poll|
|NJ||3||-10||Democrat||NY Times Poll|
|NJ||7||1||Republican||NY Times Poll|
|NM||2||-1||Democrat||NY Times Poll|
|OH||1||9||Republican||NY Times Poll|
|PA||1||-12||Democrat||Incomplete NY Times|
|TX||7||3||Republican||NY Times Poll|
|TX||23||16||Republican||NY Times Poll|
|VA||2||8||Republican||NY Times Poll|
|VA||7||4||Republican||NY Times Poll|
|WV||3||6||Republican||NY Times Poll|
Of the 1 tied race and 6 unpolled race above, I went back and looked at the most recent adjusted poll on Nate Silver's page. In those races the GOP goes 5-2, losing only the two New York races, which would give the GOP a 218-217 win.