Value Add 5.0 Adjustment for Top 31 Teams of this Century

00The key advance in the 5.0 Version of Value Add Basketball to adjust for the fact that a player on a great team gets fewer touches. I long noted that some of this is offset because while a player who goes to Grambling will shoot a lot more than if he went to Kentucky, he also would face much tougher defenses, many more double teams, and he would need to handle the ball much much more than he would lose efficiency due to wearing down (even Kobe Bryant was a below average player when asked to handle the ball close to 40 percent of the time.

Separate adjustments are made for the level of defense played, but the adjustment calculated that normal adjustment from the Value Add Version 3.0 POINTS PER HUNDRED POSSESSIONS stats that coincided with www.kenpom.com was .670 for the average 67 trips per game this century. Instead, the best teams in the country would multiply by .850 and the worst team at just over .500.

This worked well for ALMOST all of the 6,000 teams to take the court since the 2001-02 season measured in the historic database, but the old bell curve indicated the occasional exceptional team deserved even beyond the 0.850.

To make this adjustment, when a team's AdjEM rating at www.kenpom.com is 30+, then the following formula is run to determine the adjustment made to players on the team between their Value Add 3.0 rating (impact on team AdjEM) and Value Add 5.0 rating (points per game above replacement):

((AdjEM + 100) x 0.0066) = Adjustment

As of January 28, 2018, these are the 31 super teams of the century requiring this adjustment.

21st Cent	Super Teams (30+AdjEM)	year	Conf	W-L	AdjEM	Value Add Adjust
1	Kentucky	2015	SEC	38-1	36.91	0.917
2	Kansas	2008	B12	37-3	35.21	0.906
3	Duke	2002	ACC	31-4	34.19	0.899
4	Wisconsin	2015	B10	36-4	33.72	0.896
5	Ohio St.	2011	B10	34-3	33.47	0.894
6	Duke	2010	ACC	35-5	33.29	0.893
7	Louisville	2013	BE	35-5	32.92	0.891
8	North Carolina	2005	ACC	33-4	32.77	0.890
9	Villanova	2018	BE	20-1	32.69	0.889
10	Illinois	2005	B10	37-2	32.68	0.889
11	Kentucky	2012	SEC	38-2	32.59	0.888
12	Duke	2015	ACC	35-4	32.48	0.888
13	Arizona	2015	P12	34-4	32.36	0.887
14	Duke	2004	ACC	31-6	32.33	0.887
15	Virginia	2018	ACC	20-1	32.27	0.886
16	Gonzaga	2017	WCC	37-2	32.05	0.885
17	Villanova	2016	BE	35-5	32.01	0.884
18	Kansas	2010	B12	33-3	31.85	0.883
19	Memphis	2008	CUSA	38-2	31.51	0.881
20	Purdue	2018	B10	21-2	31.41	0.880
21	North Carolina	2007	ACC	31-7	31.37	0.880
22	Florida	2013	SEC	29-8	31.18	0.879
23	North Carolina	2009	ACC	34-4	31.14	0.879
24	Florida	2007	SEC	35-5	30.81	0.876
25	Villanova	2015	BE	33-3	30.65	0.875
26	Louisville	2014	Amer	31-6	30.41	0.874
27	North Carolina	2008	ACC	36-3	30.22	0.872
28	Cincinnati	2002	CUSA	31-4	30.19	0.872
29	Arizona	2014	P12	33-5	30.11	0.872
30	Ohio St.	2012	B10	31-8	30.07	0.871
31	Virginia	2015	ACC	30-4	30.06	0.871