Braves Eliminated As Padres Rally Past Brewers after Losing to Cubs

See the scoresheets at the bottom of this blog.

The Padres were three innings from clinching the playoffs with a 3-2 lead in Wrigley Field until Pete Crow-Armstrong doubled then fellow All-Star Kyle Tucker homered to give the Cubs a 4-3 win and give the Braves hope. 

In the 8th innings against the Brewers they held a 4-3 lead, but this time they exploded in the 8th inning for 6-runs including Jake Cronenworth and Gavin Sheets 2-run homers for a 10-4 win over the Brewers. It was the first time all season a team claimed a SWEEP against the Brewers, meaning the Padres got credit for 3 wins and no losses for that game after getting 1 win and 2 loss credit for the loss against the Cubs to finish our regular season 26-22. 

They join the Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago cubs, Milwaukee Brewers and New York Mets in clinching a playoff spot.

The only variable left is the Cincinnati Reds in their last two games.

6-0 FINALE - If the Reds win both as SWEEPS, then they finish 26-22 and the Phillies join the Braves as being eliminated.

5-1 FINALE - If the Reds get a SWEEP and win the other game, they finished 25-23 and play the Phillies in one extra game to see who claims the 6th seed to play the 3-seed (right now the Mets).

4-2 or WORSE - Otherwise, the Reds join the Braves as the only two teams to make the inter division play but then be eliminated. In that case the Phillies will be the 6-seed.

In theory the Dodgers could go 2-10 in their final four games, but we are just considering that basically impossible. They were so fare ahead in the West that we have not played their two games against Arizona if needed to see if they win the division. 

Preview:

SD Must Go 3-3 vs. MKE and CHC To Clinch, Eliminate Braves

The San Diego Padres face a Midwest hurdle to clinch a playoff spots by passing the Braves final 24-24 mark. 

JP Sears will start for the Padres as the host the Milwaukee Brewers and and starter Brandon Woodruff. However, Sears is only in the rotation because we do not use the cards of players with a DL by them, meaning they are on disabled list for the rest of the year, which eliminates Michael King and Joe Musgrove to move Sears into the 4-man rotation. Sears is only an average PB 4-7 card while Woodruff is a third excellent PB 2-8 card for the Brewers.

Unfortunately for the Padres they will face another PB 2-8 in Wrigley Field in the Cubs Shota Imanaga, while the Padres have a bit better PB 2-7 Nick Pivetta for that game.

Dylan Cease started in the win against the Mets, and Yu Darvish in the win against the Phillies in the other two inter divisional games..

If the Padres go 3-3 or better they go to the playoffs and the Braves are eliminated. If they go 2-4 they play one extra game against the Braves, unless the Reds also finish strong to make it a 3-way tie we need to settle for one spot. The Reds would need to finish 4-2 to create a 3-way tie if the Padres join the Braves in a 24-24 finish, and 5-1 to guaranty they are at least in a play in game for the playoffs.

The Padres also vary line-up vs LHP and RHP as shown on the sheet. The regular line-up down the left column on their team further down is the line-up against Milwaukee since Woodruff is a righty. The order by the name will be sued against Imanaga and the Cubs since he is a lefty.

The following are the rosters and picture of the team sheets of cards. We note if the player card has a DL by it then it is not used, and if a batter has an add or subtract HR then we adjust the home run range, and thus the DEEP range and beginning of the OUT range but none of the other ranges are adjusted.

 

Pos	San Diego Padres Bats	Notes
CF	Fernando Tatis Jr.	All-Star
SS	Jackson Merrill
3b	Manny Machado	All-Star
LF	Ryan O'Hearn	All-Star
DH	Luis Arraez
1b	Jake Cronenworth
2b	Xander Bogaerts
RF	Gavin Sheets
C	Elias Díaz
SS	Mason McCoy
C	Martin Maldonado
ss	Jose Iglesias
C	Freddy Fermin
RF	Ramón Laureano	add HR
PB	San Diego Padres Pitch
2'-8	Michael King	DL
2'-8	Dylan Cease
2'-7	Joe Musgrove	DL
2'-7	Nick Pivetta
4'-7	JP Sears
2'-7	Yu Darvish
4'-7	Matt Waldron
2'-8	Mason Miller
2'-9	Jason Adam	All-Star
2'-8	Jeremiah Estrada
2'-6	Sean Reynolds	temp card
2'-6	David Morgan	temp card
2'-8	Robert Suarez	All-Star
2'-7	Adrian Morejon
2'-7	Yuki Matsui
4'-7	Randy Vásquez
4'-7	Kyle Hart
2'-6	Wandy Peralta
2'-6	Bradgley Rodriguez
2'-6	Ron Marinaccio
Pos	Chicago Cubs Bats
CF	Pete Crow-Armstrong	All-Star
RF	Kyle Tucker	All-Star
DH	Seiya Suzuki
LF	Ian Happ
3b	Michael Busch	add HR
SS	Dansby Swanson
2b	Nico Hoerner
C	Miguel Amaya	DL, add HR
CF	Willi Castro	add HR
ca	Reese McGuire	new card
1b	Jon Berti	minus HR
C	Carson Kelly	add 2 HR
3b	Justin Turner	minus HR
SS	Matt Shaw
PB	Chicago Cubs Pitch
2'-8	Justin Steele	DL
2'-8	Matthew Boyd	All-Star
2'-8	Shota Imanaga
2'-8	Cade Horton	temp card
2'-7	Jameson Taillon
4'-7	Javier Assad	DL
4'-7	Colin Rea
4'-7	Kyle Tyler
2'-8	Drew Pomeranz
2'-7	Ryan Brasier	temp card
4'-7	Daniel Palencia	temp card
2'-7	Caleb Thielbar
4'-7	Taylor Rogers
2'-7	Porter Hodge
4'-7	Luke Little
4'-7	Andrew Kittredge
4'-7	Brad Keller
2'-6	Tom Cosgrove
2'-5	Eli Morgan	DL
2'-5	Nate Pearson
Pos	Milwaukee Brewers Bats
LF	Christian Yelich
2b	Caleb Durbin
DH	Jackson Chourio
C	William Contreras	minus HR
1b	Rhys Hoskins
RF	Garrett Mitchell	DL
CF	Sal Frelick
3b	Joey Ortiz	minus 2 HR
ss	Brice Turang
DH	Oliver Dunn	minus HR
LF	Brandon Lockridge	minus HR
lf	Isaac Collins
LF	Jake Bauers
DH	Danny Jansen
1b	Andrew Vaughn	minus 2 HR
PB	Milwaukee Brewers Pitch
2'-8	Freddy Peralta	All-Star
2'-8	Jacob Misiorowski	All-Star
8-Feb	Brandon Woodruff	temp card
2'-7	Aaron Ashby
2'-7	Tobias Myers
2'-7	Jose Quintana
2'-9	Trevor Megill
2'-8	Chad Patrick
4'-7	Logan Henderson	temp card
2'-6	Rob Zastryzny	temp card
2'-7	Abner Uribe
2'-7	Nick Mears
4'-7	Quinn Priester
4'-7	Jared Koenig
2'-6	Craig Yoho
2'-5	Grant Anderson

Here are the team sheets of player cards.

Phils Realmuto 2 HRs Stun Dodgers 2-1, Likely Eliminates Braves

The Phillies face a tough match-up in the free Statis-Pro baseball game to make it into the playoffs. 

While leading the NL East in the actual MLB, the Phillies have struggles in Statis-Pro since Cy Young candidate Zack Wheeler was lost for the season. Jesús Luzardo has to start as the new No. 4 man in the rotation, in a trip to Los Angeles to face the Dodgers ace Tyler Glasnow.

If the Phillies can overcome those odds they are likely in our playoffs unless the Reds dominate the rest of their season, If they keep it within 5 runs in a loss then they likely have a 1-game playoff with the Braves. But if they are down by 5 runs at the end of the 8th in this game they are likely out of the playoffs.

Game Update: Phillies 2, Dodgers 1!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Tyler Glasnow was dominant - 12 strikeouts, 0 walks and 4 hits allowed in 7 innings. However, it was not enough as two of those hits were solo home runs by J.T. Realmuto to give the Phillies a 2-1 win and likely send the Phillies to the playoffs and eliminate the Braves to give Statis-Pro the same six NL playoff teams that would make it if the real MLB season ended today.

At 34 years old, Realmuto's card is down to just a 27-28 home run range and the first two times up Glasnow left the pitch on his card, which only happens 1 in 6 times since Glasnow keeps it on his own card on PB 2-9 of the 2-12 possible results. The first time Realmuto hit it out on a 27, then on a 28. Realmuto was awarded as the best hitting catcher in baseball (Silver Bat) three of five years (from when he was 27 to 31 year old) but has had the normal trail off for a catcher in his 30s, to only about half the WAR of his incredible 6.5 as a 31 year old.

The real story is this shocker was holding the Dodgers to only 1 unearned run. While the Phillies knew they could go to a PB 2-8 or 2-9 for the 6th, 7th, 8th and 9th, but the key was Jesús Luzardo as only an average PB 4-7 card getting through the five innings. He pitched five innings with only one unearned urn allowed, with some help from centerfielder Brandon Marsh, who made a clutch defensive catch in the 3rd to end the inning and prevent Freddie Freeman from scoring, and then in the 4th threw out Teoscar Hernández at the plate.

The relievers were great, but the shocker was MVP candidate Shohei Ohtani, who struck out four straight times leading off an inning, and then grounded into a game ending double play as pinchrunner Tommy Edman racing home from 3rd base with what would have been the game tying run.

The Phillies upset finishes them ahead of the only other team to finish all their games - Atlanta - meaning it is very likely the Phils are in the playoffs and Braves are eliminated.  The only chances of another scenario are if the Reds to 6-0 to eliminate both, or the Padres struggling in their last two to fall behind both teams.  

Here are the standings, grid of remaining games, then rosters for the just completed games.

 

Pos	Phillies Line-up
1b	Bryce Harper
DH	Kyle Schwarber	All-Star
SS	Trea Turner
LF	Max Kepler
CF/B	Nick Castellanos
B/CF	Brandon Marsh
C	JT Realmuto
3b	Edmundo Sosa
LF	Harrison Bader
2b	Bryson Stott
1b	Alec Bohm
C	Rafael Marchán
LF	Johan Rojas
OF	Weston Wilson
OF	Cal Stevenson
3b	Otto Kemp	temp card
PB	Pitching
2'-9	Zack Wheeler	DL, All-Star
2'-8	Ranger Suárez
2'-8	Cristopher Sánchez
2'-7	Walker Buehler
4'-7	Jesús Luzardo
2'-6	Aaron Nola	DL
2'-9	Jhoan Duran
2'-8	José Alvarado	restrticted
2'-8	Orion Kerkering
4'-7	David Robertson
2'-8	Matt Strahm
4'-7	Jordan Romano
4'-7	Tanner Banks
2'-5	Taijuan Walker
2'-5	Mick Abel	5
2'-5	Alan Rangel	3
2'-5	Max Lazar	2
Pos	Pitcher late add	pb
2'-5	Mick Abel
2'-5	Alan Rangel
2'-5	Max Lazar
Pos	LAD Deep 11'-35 = HR, Dodger Stadium LAD
DH	Shohei Ohtani	All-Star
cf	Mookie Betts	minus HR
1b	Freddie Freeman	All-Star
C	Will Smith	All-Star
RF	Teoscar Hernández
2b	Hyeseong Kim	new card
lf	Andy Pages
3b	Max Muncy
SS	Miguel Rojas	minus HR
IF	Kiké Hernández
C	Dalton Rushing	.551 - 3b on 25
CF	Alex Call
LF	Tommy Edman
RF	Michael Conforto	minus HR
PB	Los Angeles Dodgers / NL West
2'-9	Tyler Glasnow
2'-9	Blake Snell
2'-9	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	All-Star
2'-8	Clayton Kershaw	All-Star
2'-8	Roki Sasaki	DL
2'-8	Shohei Ohtani
2'-9	Tanner Scott
2'-8	Ben Casparius
2'-8	Brock Stewart	temp card
4'-7	Jack Dreyer	temp card
2'-8	Evan Phillips	DL
2'-8	Alex Vesia
2'-8	Blake Treinen
2'-8	Kirby Yates
2'-6	Alexis Díaz
2'-7	Brusdar Graterol	DL
2'-7	Gavin Stone	DL
2'-7	Bobby Miller
4'-7	Luis García
4'-7	Anthony Banda
4'-7	Landon Knack
4'-7	Justin Wrobleski
2'-6	Michael Kopech	DL
Pos	Pitcher late add	pb
2'-7	Emmet Sheehan

Cubs Clinch Playoffs, Put Braves on Brink of Elimination with 5-3 Win

It is likely the sixth playoff spot in our Statis-Pro NL season will come down to the Phillies - who are in danger of missing our Statis-Pro playoffs due to pitching industries even while they are at No. 2 in the real MLB - and the Atlanta Braves who are actually out of the real playoff picture but trying to be the Statis-Pro playoffs.

If the Braves do better in their finale against the Cubs than the Phillies to against the Dodgers, then they will likely be the spoiler. They did catch one bad break in that the Cubs have a new card in Cade Horton, who has won his last two starts in the actual MLB against the Braves with more than 11 innings pitched and one run allowed. However the Braves have their ace Spencer Strider.

After the Braves games, the Phillies will know how well they need to do in their finale against the Dodgers to finish ahead of the Cubs for the last playoff spot.

Results to follow.

Jon Berti's 3rd hit of the day was a base-clearing double past a weaker fielding third baseman Austin Riley on a clutch defense play to break a tie and give the Cubs a 5-3 win. Cade Horton pitched 5.7 scoreless innings to outduel fellow PB2-8 pitcher, Spencer Strider, but gave up a 2-run homer to Matt Olson to tie the game 2-2 after 8 innings pitched. However, Drew Pomeranz came in for the save.

While the Braves finish 24-24, and the Phillies will throw Luzardo in their last game against the Dodgers and Glasnow. If they win then they finish ahead of the Braves potentially for the 6th and final playoff spot. If they lose but keep it within five runs then they would tie the Braves at 24-24 and have a one-game playoff if those two were tied for 6th.  If the Reds pass them both they could both be eliminated, or if the Padres fall beneath them the could both get into the playoffs with out a playoff game.  The Brewers, Mets and Cubs have clinched with more than 24 wins, and the Dodgers only need to go 4-11 with their  remaining games (they also still can play Arizona twice in addition to those on the grid if necessary). 

 

Pos	Deep 11'-43 = HR, Truist Park ATL
rf	Ronald Acuña Jr.
3b	Austin Riley
1b	Matt Olson
DH	Marcell Ozuna
C	Sean Murphy
RF	Jarred Kelenic
CF	Michael Harris II
2b	Ozzie Albies
SS	Nick Allen
3b	Jonathan Ornelas
of	Eli White
cf	Drake Baldwin
LF	Jurickson Profar
PB	Atlanta Braves / NL East
2'-9	Chris Sale
2'-8	Spencer Strider
2'-8	Reynaldo López
2'-7	Spencer Schwellenbach
2'-7	AJ Smith-Shawver
4'-7	Erick Fedde
4'-7	Bryce Elder
4'-7	Davis Daniel
2'-4	Carlos Carrasco
2'-8	Aaron Bummer
2'-8	Dylan Lee
2'-8	Pierce Johnson
2'-7	Daysbel Hernández
2'-7	Raisel Iglesias
2'-7	Joe Jiménez
2'-6	Tyler Kinley
4'-7	Dane Dunning
2'-6	Hunter Stratton
2'-6	Grant Holman
4'-7	Carlos Rodriguez
2'-5	Wander Suero
Pos	CHC 11'-26 = HR, Wrigley Field CHC
CF	Pete Crow-Armstrong
RF	Kyle Tucker
DH	Seiya Suzuki
LF	Ian Happ
3b	Michael Busch
SS	Dansby Swanson
2b	Nico Hoerner
C	Miguel Amaya
CF	Willi Castro
ca	Reese McGuire
1b	Jon Berti
C	Carson Kelly
3b	Justin Turner
SS	Matt Shaw
PB	Chicago Cubs / NL Central
2'-8	Justin Steele
2'-8	Matthew Boyd
2'-8	Shota Imanaga
2'-8	Cade Horton
2'-7	Jameson Taillon
4'-7	Javier Assad
4'-7	Colin Rea
4'-7	Kyle Tyler
2'-8	Drew Pomeranz
2'-7	Ryan Brasier
4'-7	Daniel Palencia
2'-7	Caleb Thielbar
4'-7	Taylor Rogers
2'-7	Porter Hodge
4'-7	Luke Little
4'-7	Andrew Kittredge
4'-7	Brad Keller
2'-6	Tom Cosgrove
2'-5	Eli Morgan
2'-5	Nate Pearson

Photos to follow.

Padres Rally in 8th for Big Win En Route to Playoffs

 The San Diego Padres, who need to juggle their line-up more than any other team due to several starters struggling massively against left-handed pitchers like Sean Manaea, finally rallied in the bottom of the 8th for a win that moved them ahead of the Phillies and Braves into 5th place. 

With the score tied 1-1 Jackson Merrill, one of three Padres who has hits turned into strikeouts on random numbers of 11-13 (his 13/88 indicates this and that against a righty an 88 turns from an out to a single) finally faced a rightly in the 8th and singled and stole second. The table below shows that we bat him No. 2 against righties but No. 9 against lefties. His hit was on an 88, so would have been an out if Manaea was still in the game.

Fernando Tatis Jr then hit a ground to 2nd base to move him to third, and when 2nd baseman Jeff McNeil bobbled the ball for an error, runners were on the corners. Tatis then also stole second base. Ramón Laureano, who is only in the line-up because of the lefty starter (87/11 indicated an 87 or 88 turns to a single against a lefty and 11 is a strikeout against a righty) then hit a ground to Francisco Lindor at short, but Merrill raced home and beat the throw home with the game winning run to make it 2-1.

Xander Bogaerts, who came into replace Manny Machado when a line drive hit him at 3rd base, then hit into a double play but Tatis scored from 3rd for the 3-1 lead. Mark Vientos homered for the Mets in the top of the 9th, but the Padres held on 3-2 for the crucial win. Here are the standings after the game in what will be a 48-game season.

Milwaukee 26-13   ---   (leads "East" for bye)

LA Dodgers 21-12  2    (leads "West" for bye)

NY Mets 25-17   2.5

Chicago Cubs 24-18  3.5

San Diego 22-20   5.5 (last team in playoffs with no tie-braker game)

Atlanta 23-22  6 (would play in one-game playoff to make playoffs if season ended today)

Philadelphia 23-22  6 (would play in one-game playoff to make playoffs if season ended today)

Cincinnati 20-22  7.5 (would miss playoffs if season ended today).

 

Pos	SD Padres	v. L	v. R	Plat	HR	SB	OPS
CF	Fernando Tatis Jr.	1	1	13/NA	27-33	AA	0.826
RF	Ramón Laureano	2		87/11	25-27	B	0.722
3b	Manny Machado	3	3	NA/NA	32-35	B	0.825
LF	Ryan O'Hearn	4	4	12'/NA	31-34	C	0.826
DH	Luis Arraez	5	5	11/NA		D	0.736
1b	Jake Cronenworth	6	6	13/88	26-27	D	0.728
ss	Jose Iglesias	7		86/11	33	D	0.669
C	Freddy Fermin	8		88/NA	28	D	0.675
SS	Jackson Merrill	9	2	13/88	32-35	B	0.788
2b	Xander Bogaerts		7	11/NA	31-32	B	0.724
RF	Gavin Sheets		8	11/NA	25-27	D	0.704
C	Elias Díaz		9	11/NA	25-26	E	0.615
SS	Mason McCoy			-/-		C	0.522
C	Martin Maldonado			-/-		E	0.533
Pos	NY Mets	v. L	v. R	Plat	HR	SB	OPS
SS	Francisco Lindor	1	1	NA/NA	25-31	A	0.801
DH	Juan Soto	2	2	88/NA	23-27	D	0.946
1b	Pete Alonso	3	3	NA/NA	25-32	D	0.884
C	Francisco Álvarez	4	4	88/NA	27-33	D	0.784
CF	Brandon Nimmo	5	5	NA/NA	25-27	C	0.763
3b	Mark Vientos	6	6	NA/NA	24-28	E	0.759
RF	Jesse Winker	7	7	11/NA	24-25	C	0.739
LF	Starling Marte	8	8	87/11	32	A	0.719
2B	Jeff McNeil	9	9	11/NA	27-31	D	0.711
CF	Cedric Mullins			14/88	26-28	A	0.726
3b	Ronny Mauricio				27-28	B	0.678
cf	Hayden Senger			NA/11		E	0.564
ss	Luisangel Acuña			NA/11	31	A	0.630
RF	Tyrone Taylor			NA/NA	26-27	A	0.683
CF	Jose Siri			88/NA	21-24	A	0.687
C	Luis Torrens			NA/11	26-28	E	0.698
2b	Brett Baty			12'/NA	25-27	D	0.714
PB	SD Pitchers	IP	R	K	End	MaxIP	ERA
2'-8	Dylan Cease	6	1	23-44	14	6	3.48
2'-8	Robert Suarez	1	0	25-51	3	2	3.55
2'-8	Mason Miller	1	0	22-48	3	2	2.71
2'-9	Jason Adam	1	1	24-48	3	2	3.43
PB	NY Pitchers	IP	R	K	SR	MaxIP	ERA
2'-7	Sean Manaea	7	1	25-43	15	7	4.31
2'-9	Ryan Helsley	1	1	23-45	3	2	2.77

Grid of games to play and scoresheet.