Our CBS Sports/247: Value Add Top Trio (Duke) and Top Duo (Nova) Reach Final 4

(This is the email that went out to our sports list. Email johnp@takebackaction.org if you would like to be added to that list). 

The www.valueaddbasketball.com rankings are final for the players on 342 of 358 teams. PudnerSports.com lists the schedule for the last 16 teams in the Basketball Classic, NIT and of course NCAA, as well as listing the top 2% of the 4,258 players in the www.valueaddbasketball.com rankings.

Click on the picture below or on this link for our CBS Sports/247 Story on how the top trio in basketball (yes better than Gonzaga's according to our rankings) led Duke and Coach Mike Krzyzewski’s to the Final 4, while the top duo in the country (including Collin Gillespie, pictured) led Villanova to the Final 4.  They await the winner of the two games on CBS today, with Miami leading Kansas at the half as ACC fans hope they hold on and UNC tops Saint Peter's in the finale after that game to give the ACC three of the Final 4 teams.

Scroll further down for our final National Player of the Year and All-American teams.

The Value Add Basketball National Player of the Year battle was one of our closest ever, with Iowa's Keegan Murray nudging out Kentucky's Oscar Tshiebwe with respective Value Adds of 12.31 to 12.13. That means both team would be expected to be 12 points worse if either of those MVPs had to miss a game - so turning a 6-point win into a 6-point loss.

Our Final 1st Team All-Americans calculate as:

• 4-PF, Keegan Murray #15, Iowa, 12.31, 6'8", 90% chance at NBA.
• 5-C, Oscar Tshiebwe #34, Kentucky, 12.13, 6'9", 80% chance at NBA. Top defensive rating in country at -4.47 points erased from opponent (edges out Auburn's Kessler and the Zags Chet Holmgren).
• 1-PG, Collin Gillespie #2, Villanova, 10.35, 6'3", 31% chance at NBA.
• 2-SG, Terrell Brown #23, Washington, 10.29, 6'3".
• 1-PG, Malachi Smith #13, Chattanooga, 9.93, 6'4.

The 2nd Team All-Americans calculate as:

• 4-PF, EJ Liddell #32, Ohio St., 9.77, 6'7", 77% chance at NBA.
• 4-PF, Tari Eason #13, LSU, 9.52, 6'8", 79% chance at NBA.
• 5-C, Armando Bacot #5, North Carolina, 9.48, 6'10", 59% chance at NBA.
• 2-SG, Santiago Vescovi #25, Tennessee, 9.36, 6'3.
• 2-SG, Nijel Pack #24, Kansas St., 9.31, 6'0.

The 3rd Team All-Americans calculate as:

• 3-SF, Matt Bradley #3, San Diego St., 9.25, 6'4", 28% chance at NBA.
• 5-C, Trayce Jackson-Davis #23, Indiana, 9.23, 6'9", 78% chance at NBA.
• 1-PG, Jamaree Bouyea #1, San Francisco, 9.21, 6'2", 80% chance at NBA.
• 1-PG, Kendric Davis #3, SMU, 9.2, 6'0, 27% chance at NBA.
• 5-C, Chet Holmgren #34, Gonzaga, 9.06, 7'0, 97% chance at NBA, by far the top freshman ranking, as freshman generally make enough mistakes (bad shots, turnovers) to not rank as highly despite long-term potential to dominate.

Note, both Ochai Abdaji of Kansas and Wendell Moore of Duke are just outside the All-American list and could play themselves back into it. Abdaji rated as an All-American until having a bit of an off tournament.

For all conference teams, simply go to www.valueaddbasketball.com and then enter the conference abbreviation in the "Conf" search box.

John Pudner 404.606.3163

Top College Basketball Centers this Season

In Value Add Basketball we consider the teams "center" the player who has some combination of the most defensive rebounds, blocked shots and height, but typically the fewest assists and steals. A great center will typically have even better raw numbers than a great point guard, because the guards typically need to get the ball to the center close to the basket for a closer shot - even though not nearly as many centers play with their "back to the basket" like they did for most of the history of basketball.  (for a summary of the top players at each position, click here).

Because www.valueaddbasketball.com calculates how many points per game a player improves his team compared to if a typical replacement player took his place, the raw value add is adjusted by position since the replacement player would be at the same position. Therefore, once the formulas are run, and centers raw value add is lowered by multiplying it by 0.9 to get the result you see below and at www.valueaddbasketball.com.

Top 10 most valuable centers are listed below. in general freshmen make so many mistakes (turnovers, bad shots etc.) the first half of the season that they do not rank nearly as high as more experienced players. However, they tend to improve more at the end of the season, so we watch for breakout freshmen first when looking at brackets. Therefore we start with the 10 most valuable freshmen centers in college basketball, starting with the Zags Chet Holmgrem who improves Gonzaga by 8.52 points per game - meaning there is a better than 50/50 chance the Zags would have LOST any game that they won by fewer than eight points.

In his case, he improves the Zags' offense by 5.04 points per game, while his defensive rating of -3.48 indicates he takes three to four points more away from the opposing team then a typical replacement center. Here are the most valuable 10 freshmen centers through games of February 15.

 

Rnk	Top Freshmen Centers	Team	VA5	Conf	HtText	Cl
5	Chet Holmgren #34	Gonzaga	8.52	WCC	7'0	Fr
8	Norchad Omier #15	Arkansas St.	7.79	SB	6'7"	Fr
12	Kenneth Lofton #2	Louisiana Tech	7.03	CUSA	6'7"	Fr
18	Johni Broome #4	Morehead St.	6.68	OVC	6'10"	Fr
34	DaRon Holmes #15	Dayton	5.84	A10	6'10"	Fr
57	Fousseyni Traore #45	BYU	4.91	WCC	6'6"	Fr
80	Jalen Duren #2	Memphis	4.27	Amer	6'11"	Fr
95	Charles Bediako #10	Alabama	3.92	SEC	7'0	Fr
111	Eddie Lampkin #4	TCU	3.67	B12	6'11"	Fr
112	Oso Ighodaro #13	Marquette	3.65	BE	6'9"	Fr

Top 50 Centers Overall

In true value, our calculations indicate the 1st Team All-American so far should come from Kentucky, and Holgrem is in a tight races for the 2nd Team All-American center with stars from Indiana, Auburn and UNC.

 

Rnk	Top Centers (5)	Team	VA5	Conf	HtText	Cl
1	Oscar Tshiebwe #34	Kentucky	11.14	SEC	6'9"	Jr
2	Trayce Jackson-Davis #23	Indiana	8.94	B10	6'9"	So
3	Walker Kessler #13	Auburn	8.66	SEC	7'1"	So
4	Armando Bacot #5	North Carolina	8.6	ACC	6'10"	Jr
5	Chet Holmgren #34	Gonzaga	8.52	WCC	7'0	Fr
6	Orlando Robinson #10	Fresno St.	8.4	MWC	7'0	Jr
7	Hunter Dickinson #1	Michigan	7.89	B10	7'1"	So
8	Norchad Omier #15	Arkansas St.	7.79	SB	6'7"	Fr
9	Jack Nunge #24	Xavier	7.61	BE	7'0	Jr
10	KJ Williams #0	Murray St.	7.27	OVC	6'10"	Jr
11	Kofi Cockburn #21	Illinois	7.22	B10	7'0	Jr
12	Kenneth Lofton #2	Louisiana Tech	7.03	CUSA	6'7"	Fr
13	Mark Williams #15	Duke	6.96	ACC	7'0	So
14	Christian Koloko #35	Arizona	6.93	P12	7'1"	So
15	Jake Stephens #34	VMI	6.88	SC	6'11"	Sr
16	Isaiah Whaley #5	Connecticut	6.72	BE	6'9"	Sr
17	Keve Aluma #22	Virginia Tech	6.71	ACC	6'9"	Sr
18	Johni Broome #4	Morehead St.	6.68	OVC	6'10"	Fr
19	Osun Osunniyi #21	St. Bonaventure	6.65	A10	6'10"	Sr
20	JT Shumate #32	Toledo	6.56	MAC	6'7"	Jr
21	Gaige Prim #44	Missouri St.	6.48	MVC	6'9"	Sr
22	Javon Franklin #13	South Alabama	6.47	SB	6'7"	Sr
23	Yauhen Massalski #25	San Francisco	6.46	WCC	6'9"	Sr
24	Ryan Kalkbrenner #11	Creighton	6.45	BE	7'1"	So
25	Zach Edey #15	Purdue	6.45	B10	7'4"	So
26	Matthias Tass #11	Saint Mary's	6.44	WCC	6'10"	Sr
27	Jamal Cain #1	Oakland	6.42	Horz	6'7"	Sr
28	Isaiah Mobley #3	USC	6.39	P12	6'10"	Jr
29	Trevion Williams #50	Purdue	6.28	B10	6'10"	Sr
30	Drew Pember #4	UNC Asheville	6.13	BSth	6'10"	Jr
31	Darius Days #4	LSU	6.07	SEC	6'7"	Sr
32	Jaylin Williams #10	Arkansas	6.05	SEC	6'10"	So
33	Jalen Slawson #20	Furman	5.86	SC	6'7"	Sr
34	DaRon Holmes #15	Dayton	5.84	A10	6'10"	Fr
35	Bryson Williams #11	Texas Tech	5.8	B12	6'8"	Sr
36	Jesse Edwards #14	Syracuse	5.79	ACC	6'11"	Jr
37	Eric Dixon #43	Villanova	5.76	BE	6'8"	So
38	Andre Kelly #22	California	5.72	P12	6'9"	Sr
39	Graham Ike #33	Wyoming	5.7	MWC	6'9"	So
40	Luka Brajkovic #35	Davidson	5.61	A10	6'10"	Sr
41	Felipe Haase #22	Mercer	5.52	SC	6'9"	Sr
42	John Harrar #21	Penn St.	5.48	B10	6'9"	Sr
43	Nick Muszynski #33	Belmont	5.44	OVC	6'11"	Sr
44	Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua #23	Baylor	5.36	B12	6'8"	Jr
45	Enrique Freeman #25	Akron	5.35	MAC	6'7"	So
46	Pete Nance #22	Northwestern	5.32	B10	6'10"	Sr
47	Nate Watson #0	Providence	5.28	BE	6'10"	Sr
48	Josh Carlton #25	Houston	5.25	Amer	6'11"	Sr
49	Tanner Groves #35	Oklahoma	5.22	B12	6'10"	Sr
50	Myles Johnson #15	UCLA	5.16	P12	6'10"	Sr

Top 25 Value Add Basketball Players & Top 15 in Each Conference

The rankings for 4,000+ college Most Valuable Players in college basketball are updated at www.valueaddbasketball.com based on stats as of January 17, 2022. Value Add Basketball ranks players in a method similar to how www.kenpom.com ranks teams. The offensive rating (AdjO) minus the defensive rating (AdjD, negative is good because the player is taking points away from the other team) to calculated the overall "Value" of each player above a replacement player.

This blog links to three options to review the rankings:

1. The 25 most valuable players in the country are listed on the table below.

2. You can also go to www.valueaddbasketball.com to sort all 4000+ players by team, conference, class, etc.

3. The picture above is from this CBS 247 story on the updated rankings.

4. Finally, the links below the table take you to your choice of the 32 college basketball conferences for the notes specific to that conference and their top 15 players in the ratings.

Rnk	Top 25 All-Americans	Team	Value	Ht	Cl	AdjO	AdjD	Gm/St	Conf
1	Keegan Murray #15	Iowa	11.08	6'8"	So	8.97	-2.12	16, 16	B10
2	Justin Bean #34	Utah St.	10.58	6'7"	Sr	8.38	-2.20	16, 16	MWC
3	Oscar Tshiebwe #34	Kentucky	10.51	6'9"	Jr	6.86	-3.65	17, 17	SEC
4	Trayce Jackson-Davis #23	Indiana	10.12	6'9"	So	7.21	-2.91	16, 16	B10
5	Alex Barcello #13	BYU	10.12	6'2"	Sr	8.87	-1.25	17, 17	WCC
6	Collin Gillespie #2	Villanova	9.94	6'3"	Sr	8.30	-1.64	17, 17	BE
7	Kendric Davis #3	SMU	9.71	6'0	Sr	9.12	-0.59	17, 17	Amer
8	Armando Bacot #5	North Carolina	9.43	6'10"	Jr	6.85	-2.58	16, 16	ACC
9	Terrell Brown #23	Washington	9.30	6'3"	Sr	7.45	-1.84	15, 15	P12
10	Ochai Agbaji #30	Kansas	9.27	6'5"	Sr	8.33	-0.93	16, 16	B12
11	Tylor Perry #5	North Texas	9.22	5'11"	Jr	7.92	-1.30	13, 0	CUSA
12	Malachi Smith #13	Chattanooga	9.21	6'4"	So	8.62	-0.60	16, 16	SC
13	Posh Alexander #0	St. John's	9.21	6'0	So	5.36	-3.85	14, 13	BE
14	Orlando Robinson #10	Fresno St.	9.12	7'0	Jr	6.79	-2.34	15, 15	MWC
15	EJ Liddell #32	Ohio St.	8.93	6'7"	Jr	6.86	-2.07	15, 15	B10
16	Justin Moore #5	Villanova	8.56	6'4"	Jr	6.14	-2.42	17, 17	BE
17	Santiago Vescovi #25	Tennessee	8.52	6'3"	Jr	6.00	-2.51	16, 16	SEC
18	Jamaree Bouyea #1	San Francisco	8.43	6'2"	Sr	6.46	-1.97	17, 17	WCC
19	Christian Braun #2	Kansas	8.32	6'6"	Jr	6.20	-2.12	16, 16	B12
20	Iverson Molinar #1	Mississippi St.	8.29	6'3"	Jr	8.00	-0.30	16, 16	SEC
21	Tevin Brown #10	Murray St.	8.25	6'5"	Jr	6.33	-1.91	13, 13	OVC
22	Trent Frazier #1	Illinois	8.23	6'2"	Sr	4.61	-3.62	14, 13	B10
23	Alondes Williams #31	Wake Forest	8.21	6'5"	Sr	6.89	-1.32	18, 18	ACC
24	Tari Eason #13	LSU	8.08	6'8"	So	5.16	-2.92	16, 0	SEC
25	Hunter Dickinson #1	Michigan	7.95	7'1"	So	6.17	-1.78	13, 13	B10

Below are the links to each conference review and top 15 players, with the Player of the Year listed.

Abbr, Conference, Player of Year so far, Team

AE, America East Conference, Ryan Davis #35, Vermont

Amer, American Athletic Conference, Kendric Davis #3, SMU

ASun, ASUN Conference, Darius McGhee #2, Liberty

A10, Atlantic 10 Conference, Michael Jones #13, Davidson

ACC, Atlantic Coast Conference, Armando Bacot #5, North Carolina

B12, Big 12 Conference, Ochai Agbaji #30, Kansas

BE, Big East Conference, Collin Gillespie #2, Villanova

BSky, Big Sky Conference, Dillon Jones #2, Weber St.

BSth, Big South Conference, Ricky Clemons #1, Campbell

B10, Big Ten Conference, Keegan Murray #15, Iowa

BW, Big West Conference, Collin Welp #40, UC Irvine

CAA, Colonial Athletic Association, Cam Holden #55, Towson

CUSA, Conference USA, Tylor Perry #5, North Texas

Horz, Horizon League, Jamal Cain #1, Oakland

Ivy, Ivy League, Kino Lilly #10, Brown

MAAC, Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference, George Papas #5, Monmouth

MAC, Mid American Conference, JT Shumate #32, Toledo

MEAC, Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference, Kris Bankston #30, Norfolk St.

MVC, Missouri Valley Conference, Garrett Sturtz #3, Drake

MWC, Mountain West Conference, Justin Bean #34, Utah St.

NEC, Northeast Conference, Alex Morales #2, Wagner

OVC, Ohio Valley Conference, Tevin Brown #10, Murray St.

P12, Pac 12 Conference, Terrell Brown #23, Washington

Pat, Patriot League, Cam Spencer #12, Loyola MD

SEC, Southeastern Conference, Oscar Tshiebwe #34, Kentucky

SC, Southern Conference, Malachi Smith #13, Chattanooga

Slnd, Southland Conference, Isaac Mushila #10, Texas A&M CC

SWAC, Southwestern Athletic Conference, Jayveous McKinnis #11, Jackson St.

Sum, Summit League, Baylor Scheierman #3, South Dakota St.

SB, Sun Belt Conference, Javon Franklin #13, South Alabama

WCC, West Coast Conference, Alex Barcello #13, BYU

WAC, Western Athletic Conference, Jovan Blacksher #10, Grand Canyon

Note: I added the words "Most Valuable Player" above after initially posting this because our rankings measure how valuable a player is to a team while other votes may measure the "Player of the Year." In most cases I'd say the two are similar, but when writing the Big 12 summary below it occurred to me Baylor was a perfect example of when MVP and POY can be different. James Akinjo and Kendall Brown should be considered for Player of the Year in the rugged Big 12, but I don't believe either of the are in the running for Most Valuable Player because Baylor is so deep that if either of them could not play, Baylor still has seven players on the court that can dominate. I don't believe Kansas could contend nationally if Ochai Agbaji or Christian Braun were out - if those two were out and the two Baylor players above were out for the same game, I believe Baylor would beat Kansas handily..Baylor's incredible depth actually means each player is slightly less valuable because the replacement player stepping in for them is so good.